Paris Accord: Will it reduce or aggravate future hurricanes?

Tuesday, 3 October 2017 

At public consultation session of Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka on 15 June, I made a presentation (this is available in PUCSL Facebook) wherein I showed the two major large scale atmospheric circulation models Hadley and Walker Circulations as given in Kiehl & Ramanathan’s Frontiers of Climate Modelling.

I mentioned that when it comes to Sri Lanka, Hadley Circulation originating here will move northwards at 120 – 150 x 109 kg/sec until it reaches north of India, drop moisture and come down and south towards Sri Lanka, while longitudinal circulation at 810E per Walkers would be about 0-10 x 109 kg/sec. Last few weeks, North India and Nepal and Bangladesh experienced severe rainfall killing more than 1000 and affecting few millions, may be in line with Hadley Circulation.

I also mentioned that at Longitudinal range of 650 to 1250 W, country receiving this onslaught from Hadley Circulation at same speeds and onslaught from Walker Circulation at 0 - 75 x 109kg/sec is USA. While Hadley would hammer stretch from New Orleans to California, Walker Circulation would beautifully fit into USA. In April, 2017 MIT newsletter had indicated that large scale atmospheric circulation models provide more accurate predictions than recent climate models in interpreting high precipitation events in USA. So, it appears that Hadley Circulation had been very active at different longitudinal coordinates at approximately same time.

In USA, majority would be worried about precipitation than about high temperatures, heatwaves or wild fires. Damage to economy of USA as well as to population of USA due to Hurricane Harvey may be many times that by wild fires which affected western parts of USA only a few months back.


What the Paris Accord says

If one looks at the 25 – page, 29 – clause Paris Accord, one would not see a single statement about water vapour – which is what would yield precipitation as no other greenhouse gas has ability to precipitate – nor about precipitation. It has many references to climate change. It is as if proponents of Paris Accord do not know that climate has three major parameters, temperature, precipitation and wind. There are references to greenhouse gases in the agreement, but general understanding shared by scientists manning both UNFCCC and IPCC is that although water vapour is most effective greenhouse gas in atmosphere, any new water vapour entering atmosphere will not be able to exert additional greenhouse gas effect because that new water vapour condenses after a short residence time in atmosphere.

This crooked thinking promotes less carbon containing, but more hydrogen containing fuels like natural gas instead of coal. Although Paris Accord does not talk about this specifically, it mentions the need to reduce greenhouse gases as early as possible as only way to achieve a maximum of 20C rise in temperature by 2100 AD. When they talk about greenhouse gases, they do not include new water vapour entering atmosphere.

If you look at stand taken by International Energy Agency, they have said in their document ‘Redrawing the Energy – Climate Change Map’ published in mid-2013, on page 37 as follows: “Natural gas is the only fossil fuel with increasing electricity generation in the 450 scenario but it still peaks before 2030 and then starts to decline ending 18% higher in 2035 than in 2011.” As such I take it that advocates of Paris Accord also intend to increase consumption of gas only until the peak year and it may be approximately am 18% increase.

How would such an 18% increase influence two major types of catastrophes faced by mankind – hurricanes, cyclones, etc. and heatwaves, droughts and wild fires? Our objective is to evaluate how these phenomena would be impacted by Paris Accord promoting more usage of natural gas to (a) replace coal or (b) supply additional energy required.


Our methodology

One needs to remember that every atom of carbon in oil and gas is associated with 2 and 4 atoms of hydrogen respectively. Natural gas is Methane (CH4) and oil can be depicted by (CH2). Substituting oil or gas for coal, we are reducing CO2 emissions because carbon content in fuel burnt is less. Balance amount of energy need to come from some combustion and that is of hydrogen in new fuel, oil or gas. This combustion – reaction of this hydrogen with oxygen in air – will yield what I call Newly Formed Water (NFW). I call it NFW because that water vapour was not available as water in global water cycle during last million years.

When you burn oil or gas a mixture of CO2 and NFW (and never only one of them) leaves the system together, at an elevated temperature. When Climate Scientists like Prof. John Seinfeld at Caltech University calculated that when CO2 concentration in atmosphere increases from 280 ppm to 560 ppm (a 280ppm increase or addition of 2094 Gt of CO2) atmospheric temperature increases by 1.20C, they also computed that 1302Gt of water vapour will evaporate from oceans and land to maintain constant relative humidity at this elevated temperature (by 1.20C), and this water vapour increases temperature by an additional 1.60C to give that much talked about total increase in temperature of 2.80C (1.20C rise due to 2094Gt of CO2 and 1.60C rise due to 1302Gt of H2O). But any new additional water vapour to maintain constant relative humidity at this further enhanced (by 1.60C) temperature & the temperature increase due to same is/was not considered.

So here also we envisage these two primary stimulants CO2 and NFW from combustion of gas or oil, will increase temperature to bring secondary stimulant stream of water vapour into atmosphere from oceans and land and exert a second increase in temperature and nothing more. When you burn 1 litre of gasoline (0.8kg) as fuel in your vehicle, 1.08kg or 1 litre of NFW along with 2.64kg of CO2 will get into atmosphere. These two primary stimulants will bring another 3.08 kg of water vapour (secondary stimulant) into atmosphere to maintain constant relative humidity.

When one burns a litre of gasoline s/he should be prepared to receive this 4.16 kg of water as precipitation whenever or wherever that is going to come down. Obviously this water does not come down along the track of vehicle immediately after passage of vehicle. So both spatial and temporal accumulation takes place and what would be the most probable time for this water to come down. It would be when heaviest rain fall would take place under normal circumstances. Is it surprising that we receive much more rainfall than we used to and every passing year amount of gasoline used increases, amount of CO2 and NFW formed increases and amount of water vapour coming to maintain constant relative humidity increases and rainfall/precipitation received also increases?

In March, 2011 at Georgetown University, President Barak Obama announcing a four-pronged attack on climate change requested heavy vehicle users to switch over to natural gas. Complying with this request, 55% of new heavy vehicle purchasers in the second part of year opted for gas powered vehicles and natural gas combustion increased. What did this imply?

If the efficiencies of two types of engines – oil fuelled and gas fuelled – remain same, anybody who was using 1 litre (0.8kg) of oil would now be using 0.833kg of gas and generating 2.3kg of CO2 (instead of 2.64kg from oil) and 1.88kg of NFW (instead of 1.08kg earlier) and this flow of flue gases would bring up another 3.94 kg (instead of 3.08 kg earlier) of water vapour to maintain constant relative humidity. So the propensity for precipitation increased by a staggering 40% due to this switch over.

We experienced this increased propensity in New York in November, 2012 in facing Sandy. In fact I wrote an article titled ‘From Georgetown to New York in 18 months’ and e-mailed it to Brian Dumaine at Fortune magazine suggesting that he uses it in any way he thinks appropriate. I am not sure whether he made use of it. This is what happens when you switch over from oil to gas and it is plain ordinary level chemistry and most elementary climate science. I am not sure whether anybody informed the President about these possibilities.


Triple effect of NFW

Normal theory of CO2 based climate change leading to precipitation would not yield such high values for probable precipitation. If we brought about total energy of 129,000 TW hrs used in 2015 only from coal, we may have generated only 39.6 Gt of CO2 which may have brought up another 23.8 Gt of water vapour into atmosphere and what would have been available for increased precipitation may be, only this 23.8 Gt at the most, assuming it comes down only once. If this total energy was obtained from gas we would have generated 29.7 Gt of CO2 along with 24.3 Gt of NFW and these two streams would bring an additional 39.4 Gt of water vapour to maintain constant relative humidity. Then what would be really available for precipitation will be 63.7 Gt (24.3Gt of NFW and 39.4 of evaporated water) if they come down only once. So if we obtain all our energy from gas instead of from coal, the propensity for precipitation and cyclones would increase by a staggering 168%. So are you surprised that Harvey brought down 45 trillion litres of water on Texas and Louisiana.

If we assume that NFW does not bring about a greenhouse gas effect as our climate scientists want us to believe, then we should be having only 17.8 Gt of new precipitation from evaporation due to CO2 and 24.3 Gt of NFW totaling 42.1 Gt which will be 33% understatement.

If we look at temperature it would spell out a similar picture. The 39.6 Gt of CO2 from coal combustion and 23.8 Gt of water vapour entering the atmosphere to maintain constant relative humidity would increase temperature by 0.0220C and 0.0290C respectively. If this total energy were to be obtained from gas, then 29.74 Gt of CO2 and 24.37 Gt of NFW generated would have raised temperature by 0.0470C and water vapour entering atmosphere to maintain constant relative humidity at this higher temperature would increase temperature by another 0.0620C totaling 0.1090C which is 109% increase above the set up with coal combustion.

Now let us look at the third climate parameter, wind.

When Sandy or similar hurricanes – above normal ones belonging to hurricane season and region – impact USA, they generally say it is due to warm, moist winds coming from Africa, warm ocean water and low wind shear. If one looks at all these three aspects one would see that water vapour from oil and gas combustion would yield more heat and moisture to the winds, surface temperature increase will be more due to water vapour than due to CO2 and viscosities of O2, N2, CO2 and H2O are in the ratio of 29,25, 19 and 13.

According to Wikipedia, there are six reasons which leads to formation of cyclones and NFW makes significant contributions towards five of these; sixth one is a location specific requirement. In September, 2008 Nature Magazine carried an article which said that from 1981 to 2006, wind speeds for strongest tropical storms increased from an average of 225 km/hr to 251 km/hr and ocean temperature averaged globally over all regions where tropical cyclones form increased from 25.20C to 28.50C i.e. at 0.0120C per year. Previous paragraphs showed us how NFW influences both wind speeds and temperatures.

It may be worth noting that when one considers last 120 years, the only 12-year period which saw five major hurricanes along the east coast of USA happens to be the last 12 years.


Way forward

If we are interested in reducing/eliminating these hurricanes we need to reduce amount of NFW we emit every year. This is not the way Paris Accord wants us to move. If we want to reduce the number of hurricanes or their intensities, we need to look at these numbers and decide specifically whether we want to move away from hydrogen containing fossil fuels as soon as possible. Then question arises as to how mankind is to obtain energy required. Amongst possible alternatives solar would rank high due to its ready availability. Main obstacle to use of solar energy on large scale to match amount of energy required for, say, transportation in a scenario when battery electric vehicles are the predominant mode of normal road transportation is availability of land and the need to carry out deforestation for establishing solar parks.

Nobel Prize winner in Physics, Dr. Ivar Giaever has said global warming we experience is basically due to deforestation and construction of highways with black tarred surfaces. Forest cover not only converts CO2 in atmosphere to O2, energy in solar radiation to chemical energy – both these during photosynthesis – and reflects a certain fraction of solar radiation into outer space, but also cools the atmosphere by transporting water in the ground whenever necessary. The elimination of these four leads to global warming. Then when tarred road surface is built incident solar radiation is almost entirely absorbed only to be reemitted as longwave infrared radiation leading to global warming.

So the best place to lay photovoltaic solar panels to convert solar energy to electricity will be above highways and highway solarisation is defined as “A dedicated infrastructure for generating electricity for supply to the main grid and/or powering battery electric vehicles using solar energy collected by PV solar panels installed along and above the highways as a solution for climate change”. In a future where BEVs become main mode of road transportation, highway solarisation will enable us to provide power needed with least amount of transmission losses.

When this is done, we will be using a manufactured solar panel to (a) eliminate most amount of greenhouse gases – CO2 and NFW – for unit of energy actually used, (b) eliminate most amount of waste heat generated for unit of energy actually used and most importantly, (c) eliminate 1.4 kWhr of global warming for every kWhr of electricity generated/used. What more would you expect from a solution for climate change?


Conclusion

The fact that Newly Formed Water (NFW) from combustion of oil and gas burnt to obtain energy is far more dangerous than CO2 it replaces in providing energy stems from secondary level chemistry and elementary knowledge of climate science. NFW becomes dangerous due to its ability to impact significantly all three climate parameters temperature, precipitation and wind.

Right now we are experiencing the worst of tropical cyclones to hit the USA and trillions of gallons of water are disrupting the lives of millions of people and causing damage to the tune of $ 100 billion. The Paris Accord, if implemented, and if usage of gas is promoted to achieve its objectives, it could increase these water related disasters dramatically, thus bringing up results contrary to its expectations. This is due to the inadequate study of energy generating techniques carried out by Scientists at helm of the science establishment providing support to the accord.

What we propose is to implement highway solarisation as early as possible and eliminate generation of NFW to provide “low CO2 energy”, as fast as possible and also eliminate global warming due to (a) deforestation as well as (b) highways already constructed or to be constructed.

It was President Donald Trump who initiated this pause to the Paris Accord and benefits arising from same could be enormous. He might be remembered as the American President who challenged the might of an army of global scientists and suggested we have a second look at climate change. Who knows – it might make all the difference and save mankind from water related disasters.

[Please note that due to the climate change effect of greenhouse gases not being directly proportional to their concentrations, the related absolute values given may not be exact. But I emphasise very strongly that the relationships between them would hold true in all instances quoted. One of my objectives is to remove the veil of mystery cast over climate change aspects, so that intelligent citizens of the world could understand it and constructively participate in its resolution.]

he writer is Managing Director,Somaratna Consultants Ltd.)

No pain relief, no running water: the perils of childbirth in Tanzania

‘Natural birth’ is the only option for many women here, and though dedicated midwives do their best, the risk of infection – and sepsis – is high

 Eva Paulo at home with her baby daughter, Neema Nkwaya, one day old. Without a clean water source the baby remains at high risk of infection. Photograph: Sameer Satchu/WaterAid

Leah McLaren-Monday 2 October 2017 

At the Nyarugusu medical dispensary in north-west Tanzania, Eva Paulo, 23, is in her 36th hour of labour. She paces barefoot in circles around the dusty yard behind the delivery room, her narrow back hunched in pain. Apart from her belly she is a slim woman with an angular face, her hair scraped back into rows of tidy plaits. When a contraction grips her, Paulo leans hard into the nearest tree, shuts her eyes and breathes silently as the sweat beads off her forehead.

“This is too much,” she says, as another contraction racks her. “I don’t know why it’s taking so long. And the midwives, they don’t tell me anything.”

It is, of course, the universal complaint of women in labour the world over. But for many women in Tanzania, “natural birth” isn’t a preference or an accomplishment – it’s the only viable option.

Paulo is about to give birth for the fourth time in the most basic hospital conditions imaginable. The dispensary is composed of two unassuming cinder-block buildings in a jacaranda thicket halfway up a hill. While the staff will do their best, Paulo will receive no pain relief, no foetal monitoring and no medical interventions. The lack of doctors means caesarean sections are not performed here.

Another problem – from which so many others stem – is a lack of water. There is no running water for hand-washing, sterilisation or laundry. Toilets are filthy, squat outhouses a short walk from the building.

Each morning, staff at the clinic buy 20 jerry cans of water from a local vendor for 500 shillings (about 16p) each, for basic cleaning. The money comes out of their own pockets, which is significant for nurses who earn less than £200 a month. Because of this, pregnant women are required to arrive with their own water.

Paulo’s water sits in the birthing room – three large vats of murky liquid purchased from a shallow well near her house an hour’s walk away.

The water in these buckets will sterilise any implements used in her birth and make the sweet tea she will drink in the late stages of labour. Finally, it will be used to hand-wash the bloodied linens and rubber sheet on which she gave birth. A new mother cannot be discharged until she or her relative has done so.

Paulo’s experience is very much the norm. In Tanzania, only 44% of healthcare facilities that deliver babies have access to water, decent toilets and handwashing with soap. Of these, only 24% have these facilities in the delivery room. The situation is similar across the region, with 42% of healthcare centres in sub-Saharan Africa having no water source within 500 metres.





















Buckets of water from a privately owned shallow well on the edge of Nyarugusu – the closest water source to Nyarugusu Dispensary, a 15-minute drive away. Photograph: Sameer Satchu/WaterAid

By 8am each day, the dispensary’s open-air waiting area is packed with mothers, pregnant women
and infants, most of whom have walked miles to get here. This is an area known for foreign-owned gold mines. What little employment there is here is back-breaking and poorly paid. Although healthcare is free in Tanzania, patients have to buy their own drugs.

The medical staff at the dispensary – three registered nurse/midwives, two trainee nurses, an office manager and a lab technician – are clearly overworked. Clad in white smocks, they rush about with clipboards, weighing and immunising dozens of babies, testing sick patients for malaria, tuberculosis and HIV, often working 24-hour shifts for no overtime, trying to get ahead of the stream of patients, which can number 500 a day.

Asked if she had a wish list for the clinic, midwife Jackeline Gideon Mwiguta says: “That’s easy. Running water, better equipment, more beds and more staff.”

The NGO WaterAid is working with local government here to provide a clean, reliable water source for centres like the Nyarugusu dispensary. But this is a remote area in a poor country and progress is slow. A borehole has been dug near the hospital but the pump has yet to be delivered. With luck, the dispensary will have water by Christmas.

In the birthing room, Pendo, 27, has just given birth to a healthy son called Amos. She lives in a village 10 miles away and went into labour in the middle of the night. She set off for the dispensary with her “aunty” (her mother-in-law’s youngest sister) on a motorbike taxi at first light. After 20 minutes, she felt the need to push and told the driver to stop. Pendo then lay down by the side of the road and gave birth to her son. Her aunt cut the cord with a razor blade from her bag. Pendo and her aunty, with Amos in a bundle, then got back on the bike and drove the rest of the way to the dispensary. When they arrived, the midwife put a clip on the umbilical stump. That was about an hour ago. Now Pendo is resting under a white sheet while her aunt, who wears a Chelsea FC T-shirt and a traditional kitenge wrap skirt, cradles the baby.

Asked if Amos has been bathed, Pendo shakes her head. They will do it at home later. “We didn’t have time to get water,” she says.
 Nurse-midwife Jackeline Gideon Mwiguta carries the placenta out to the clinic’s disposal pit – an unlined hole in the ground where medical waste is later burned. Photograph: Sameer Satchu/WaterAid

A couple of hours later, Pendo and Amos are nowhere to be found. Not waiting to be discharged, they slipped out of the birthing room without the midwives noticing. Mwiguta says this is common. Perhaps they just wanted to go home or, more likely, they couldn’t afford the 1,500 shillings for water.

Childbirth without water is unpleasant for all the obvious reasons but it’s also dangerous. If a labouring woman comes in without her jerry cans and needs an episiotomy, for instance, the midwives must simply wipe down the instruments with bleach, instead of sterilising before cutting. The same goes for the scissors used to cut the umbilical cord.

Without water, the delivery room cannot be properly cleaned between deliveries, of which there are several each day. During the three days I spend there, it smells strongly of afterbirth and the floor is flecked with blood and dirt. Tanzania has made great strides in lowering infant mortality in recent years, but its rate is still comparatively high. While just 3.6 in 1,000 British babies will die before their first birthday, in Tanzania that number is 51. One major reason is the prevalence of bacterial infection and its deadly sibling, sepsis. During my time at the dispensary I speak to three bereaved mothers who had lost babies to sepsis in the past month alone.

In the delivery room, there is suddenly great excitement. Paulo is finally in transition and ready to push. Lying on the hospital bed draped in just a traditional kitenge, she drinks deeply from a pink plastic nursery cup of tea and then grips the side of the bed, back arched.

“Kushinikiza, kushinikiza,” says Mwiguta, the Swahili word for “push”. She strokes Paulo’s arm, then unhurriedly snaps on a new pair of latex gloves. Instead of tossing out the packaging, she spreads the white plastic out under Paulo’s bottom – an act that seems both tender and frugal.

As the baby’s worried purple forehead emerges, Mwiguta pushes her fingers sharply under the chin and takes hold of something thick and blue and twisted. “The cord is around the neck – this is why baby took so long,” she says, as if remarking on the weather. She tugs the cord, pulling it up and over the baby’s head. Then she instructs Paulo to push once more and a perfect, slippery baby girl shoots out with force, a mess of other stuff coming with her – blood and amniotic fluid. The primordial soup of life.

PROMISES MADE TO IC MUST BE ABSORBED INTO THE UPR TO PREVENT THEM FROM RUNNING ON PARALLEL TRACKS – NIMALKA FERNANDO

Image: Dr. Nimalka Fernando speaking at the side event. ©s.deshapriya.

02/10/2017

Speaking at a side event at  36th session of the UNHRC, Dr. Nimalka Fernando, chair of the International Movement Against All Forms of Discrimination and Racism (IMADR) stated that ‘the international promises made by the Sri Lanka government  must be absorbed into the UPR to prevent them from running on parallel tracks – accountability must be related to civil, political, economic, social and cultural rights.’

The side event titled “Universal Periodic Review of Sri Lanka”, was organised by  the International Movement Against All Forms of Discrimination and Racism (IMADR), jointly with Franciscans International, Minority Rights Group International (MRG) and Human Rights Watch (HRW) .  It was held on Tuesday the 27th of September at the place des nations, Geneva.

Speaking further Dr. Fernando said that despite the utility of the UPR, she noted certain weaknesses, mainly that the Sri Lankan Government accepts recommendations but fails to comply with them. Sri Lanka suffered through a war marked by grave violations of human rights, which led to destabilisation of the rule of law and the culture of impunity. Through advocacy, the UPR became a strong tool to keep the issues of accountability, human rights and reconciliation, and grave violations before the UN and the HRC. Now, coming into the next phase of the UPR the political context has changed. Resolution 30/1 was adopted by the HRC, cosponsored by Sri Lanka, and challenges the political leadership to promote a dynamic transitional justice process. The third UPR cycle will focus on the relevance of this process. Dr. Fernando called for the restoration of independent commissions and judiciary. She states that the international promises must be absorbed into the UPR to prevent them from running on parallel tracks – accountability must be related to civil, political, economic, social and cultural rights. Although the current President signed the Office on Missing Persons (OMP) Bill she lamented the slow progress of this body, which causes a loss of confidence of the affected communities with regard to relief and justice. She congratulated the disability organisations that attended the event, as it is the first time that a Sri Lankan disability organisation has come to the HRC. She stated that ‘I’m not afraid to go back to Sri Lanka like I was in 2008, there are no white vans.’ However, she was concerned by the unfortunate rise of extreme Buddhist rhetoric and attacks against Muslims. She believes that it is up to civil society to promote and continue with its critique of governance and to create the frameworks to make the reforms possible.


Speaking from Colombo Dr. Saravanamuttu Paikiasothy of the  Centre for Policy Alternatives, stated that the process of transitional justice has made some advances but it is still insufficient to fulfil the commitments made by the Government. The country has attempted constitutional reforms and a report was submitted to the Government by the steering committee, however, there has been no consensus on the structure of the state or how elections will be conducted. Dr Paikiasothy pointed out that nominations for the OMP are still pending. The right staffing and appropriate funding are essential to ensure an operational office. Additionally, an effective communication strategy on the part of the Government is required to inform the population about the Government’s motives and agenda. Without it, the agenda can be instrumentalised by the opposition, which can use this opportunity to misinform the population. He stated that a timeline of constitutional reforms and for the implementation of the three mechanisms stated in Resolution 30/1 should be included in this communication plan.

The event was moderated by Mr J. David Whaley, Former UN Resident Coordinator for Sri Lanka. Three civil society representatives from Sri Lanka,  Dr. Nimalka Fernando, Mr. Prasanna Kuruppu and Mr. Freddy Gamage formed the panel.

-Edited version of a longer article published in the IMDAR website.

Tamil and Muslim farmers attacked by Sinhalese Home Guards in Muthur

30Sep 2017

Three Tamil and Muslim farmers in Kankuveli - Padukadu, Muthur were hospitalised on Saturday morning after being attacked by Sinhalese workers attached to Sinhalese Home Guards from the Neelapola village.

34-year-old Tharmalingam Sivakumar was most severely injured in the attack, with the other victims Muhammad Jihad, age 51, and Muhammad Rishad, age 38, also having to receive treatment. 

They were attacked when going to work on their cultivation lands, which they had recently gained access to following a protracted struggle with Sinhalese Home Guards who had appropriated the lands during the end of the war.

Locals say attacks against Tamil and Muslim agricultural communities had occurred in the past, including an attack on a Sivan Kovil in the area.

After ongoing campaigning from locals and an investigation by the government agent, the lands were declared to be the properties of Tamils and Muslims.

Mr Sivakumar who is currently in intensive care with the worst injuries is the leader of the agriculture union in the area, Mr Jihad said.

Related Articles: 

17 August 2017 : Eastern University closed ‘indefinitely’ following attack by Sinhala students

23 August 2016 : Tamil and Muslim students attacked at Peradeniya University

07 July 2016 : Tamil killed in Sinhala mob attack

Winners in the postponement of provincial elections

By Jehan Perera-October 2, 2017, 12:00 pm 

Therefore, the main beneficiary of the postponed provincial elections would be President Sirisena and his faction of the SLFP. This would require a political quid pro quo from the President which is likely to be support for the constitutional reform process. Any electoral contest, even at the local or provincial levels, where the two main coalition partners fight against each other as political rivals will conceivably harm the relationship between them in violation of the well known maxim of "do no harm."

The relatively smooth manner in which the government succeeded in postponing the forthcoming provincial council elections, in the aftermath of its failure to pass the 20th Amendment, is an indicator of the weakness of the Joint Opposition. They were neither able to challenge the government in parliament nor mobilize public sentiment on the issue. It has been left to a retired chief justice to file his own individual action in the courts. The question is why the Joint Opposition, which has over 50 MPs in parliament who are pledging their commitment to the country, was unable or unwilling to mobilize public sentiment of the postponement of the elections.

Prior to the passage of the Provincial Council Election Amendment Act, elections were due in three provincial councils, namely the Sabaragamuwa, North Central and Eastern provincial councils. Both the Sabaragamuwa and North Central provinces have been strongholds of the SLFP. At the last general elections the SLFP won more votes than any other party in the Sabaragamuwa province, and came a close second in the North Central province. However, with the break-up of the SLFP and its existence today in two factions, with the Joint Opposition controlling the larger one, the party will find it difficult to claim the upper hand anywhere in the country, and not even in the Sabaragamuwa and North Central provinces. The Joint Opposition’s strength is that it has the allegiance of the majority of elected SLFP representatives, both at the national and local levels. It is not certain that this will translate into the ability to get the majority of SLFP voters onto their side.

The failure of the Joint Opposition to present an alternative social, political or economic vision for the betterment of the country is its major weakness. It is notable that the Joint Opposition has failed to evolve in terms of their policies and programmes since the electoral defeats of 2015. There is no new thinking or new leadership that has emerged so far from the ranks of the Joint Opposition. Even the emergence of one of the potential stars of the Joint Opposition, former Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa, has been confined to the single issue of equating the government’s proposed constitutional reforms with succumbing to Tamil separatism and the break-up of the country. While the unity of the country is very important to the majority of the voters, it is unlikely that they see this threat as a real one so soon after the end of the 30-year war.

PREOCCUPIED OPPOSITION

At the present time the Joint Opposition is confined to the position of criticizing what the government is doing or not doing but unable to offer any constructive or alternative proposals themselves. The ability of the Joint Opposition to retain the support of the majority of elected SLFP politicians is that they have been hopeful of getting back the untrammeled power they once had when the previous government was in power. The public manifestations of support they were able to mobilize, most recently at the May Day celebrations, gave them hope that a takeover of government was imminent. But nothing seems to be happening. It appears that the leadership of the Joint Opposition is preoccupied with problems of their own, including evading the tentacles of the law for the serious acts of corruption and criminal enterprise during their period of government.

In this context, the main reason for the postponement of local government and more recently the provincial council elections by the government is not due to the fear of the government parties actually losing to the joint opposition. Voters especially in the rural areas have been conscious that it is the incumbent government that is in control of economic and other resources that can transform their lives. Therefore there has been a strong streak of pragmatism demonstrated by voters in local level elections. When they see no imminent change of government in the offing, they opt to vote for its representatives at the local level rather than for the opposition who are disempowered at the central level.

The decision to postpone elections is an outcome of at least two other factors. The first is that when the government is poised to present its constitutional reform proposals to the general public, and needs unity within its ranks, it does not want its members openly clashing and discrediting each other to win at those elections. Unless there is an agreement amongst the main parties to fight the elections under a common electoral symbol, as occurred during the presidential election of 2015, when the "swan" became the symbol of the then opposition parties and their common candidate, elections will add to the tensions and rivalries amongst the coalition partners. In the case of the North Central province there is a further reason why the government would prefer not to go to the polls at this time.

The North Central province borders the former war zones of the North and East. As a result the people living especially in the border villages of these two districts were subjected to attack by the LTTE and suffered during the years of war. As a result there continues to be a considerable degree of support amongst them for the former government and its leadership. As the Polonnaruwa district within the North Central province is the home base of President Sirisena, it is a matter of both sentiment and prestige to him to perform well at elections in his home district. In a three or four cornered race in the North Central Province, in which the UNP, the two factions of the SLFP and the JVP take part, the results may not be too good for the president’s faction of the SLFP. The president would be concerned about not obtaining a big victory in his home province of the North Central Province and his home district of the Polonnaruwa District.

MAIN BENEFICIARY

Therefore, the main beneficiary of the postponed provincial elections would be President Sirisena and his faction of the SLFP. This would require a political quid pro quo from the President which is likely to be support for the constitutional reform process. Any electoral contest, even at the local or provincial levels, where the two main coalition partners fight against each other as political rivals will conceivably harm the relationship between them in violation of the well known maxim of "do no harm." The government’s strategic planners would not wish to do anything at this time that would jeopardize the possible resolution of the ethnic conflict that has plagued the country since its independence nearly 70 years ago. By way of contrast, in the case of a referendum, the government parties, and the ethnic minority parties will be on the same side. Their unity and sense of common purpose will be greatly strengthened by this collaboration.

At the presidential election President Sirisena won an absolute of the majority of votes cast. A referendum can seek to replicate, if not improve upon, these results to be followed up by local elections. The government has tabled the report of the steering committee on constitutional reform to parliament. The report gives its recommendations in the form of options. It shows a high degree of creativity in its effort to bridge the gap between the different ethnic, religious and political perspectives that exist in the polity. It is significant that the release of the steering committee report has not generated either political controversy or mass mobilization of public dissent. The adroit manner in which the report has dealt with the two most controversial issues of the unitary state and the foremost place of Buddhism indicates that the government will be able to proceed to a referendum. The passage of the constitutional reform package is undoubtedly the most important challenge facing the government and indeed the country itself.

Sri Lanka’s leading monks see seeds of separatism in constitutional proposals

Sri Lankan monks stage a road blocking protest. Photo.DW--President Sirisena giving a gift to the Mahanayake Thero of Asgiriya

By Editor on September 30, 2017

Colombo, September 30 (newsin.asia): Sri Lanka’s leading Buddhist monks belonging to the Buddha Sasana Karya Sadhaka Mandalayala (BSKSM), have said that the Interim Report of the Steering Committee drafting a new constitution for Sri Lanka has, within it, the seeds of separatism.

Ven.Katugoda Dhammawansa Mahanayake Thero; Ittapane Dhammalankara Nayaka Thero; Thirukonamale Ananda Nayaka Thero; and Ven.Prof.Bellanwila Wimalratna Nayaka Thero; issued a statement on Friday saying that the Interim Report dilutes State support for Buddhism besides retaining objectionable clauses in the present constitution which give powers over land and police to the provinces.

There could be secession if powers over land and police were given to the Tamil minority dominated Northern Province, they said.

“The whole exercise (of drafting a new constitution) is a plan to pursue the needs of separatists,” the monks alleged.

On the same day, Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena told monks in Amparai that there is no plan to have a federal constitution and that Buddhism will retain its “foremost place” among the religions of Sri Lanka. He further said that he will not allow any constitution which will lead to secession.

Place of Buddhism

The Nayaka Theros of BSKSM pointed out that in the existing constitution, Art 9 says that the “Republic of Sri Lanka” shall ensure that Buddhism enjoys the foremost place among all religions, but in the draft of the new constitution, it is stated that “Sri Lanka” will protect the foremost place given to Buddhism.

“The removal of the term ‘Republic of Sri Lanka’ will necessarily do away with the State’s responsibility to give Buddhism the foremost place,” the monks argued.

They also objected to the addition of the provision that the State will not “discriminate” between religions.

“It is impossible to give Buddhism the foremost place without treating  other religions differently. It is obvious that this is an attempt to alter the meaning of Article 9 which gives Buddhism the foremost place,” the monks said.

Disguised Federalism  

The prelates said that the Interim Report is but an attempt to give Sri Lanka a Federal constitution in place of the existing Unitary one.

They pointed out that in the 1972 and 1978 constitutions, the term used for the Nature of the State was “Unitary” (Ekiya Raajya in Sinhalese and Ottrai Aatchi in Tamil). But in the intended constitution, the Nature of State is described as “Undivided and Indivisible” in English and as “Orumittha Naadu” (which means “united and indivisible”) in Tamil.

The English term “Unitary” and its Tamil equivalent “Ottrai Aatchi” have not been used.

The English term “Unitary” and the Tamil term “Ottrai Aatchi” found in the existing constitution should have been retained, if the authors of the Interim Report were honest about retaining the Unitary character of the Sri Lankan State.

The monks criticized the bid to satisfy opponents of federalism by saying that Sri Lanka will be an “indivisible” State. They pointed out that federal states can also be indivisible (like India). Their objection was to the kind of division of power between the Center and Provinces which federalism envisages.

Objections About Devolution  

The monks’ objection was to devolution of power between the Center and the Provinces under a federal constitution.Under federalism, power that is devolved is guaranteed by the constitution and cannot be taken back.

This being so, the term “Unitary” or “Ottrai Aatchi” should have been used because in a Unitary  state, power that is given to the Provinces can be taken back by  the Center as the constitutional repository of all power.

Devolution of Powers Over Land and Police

The monks expressed their “deepest disappointment” that the 13 th.Amendment (13A), enacted in 1987 as a follow up of the India-Sri Lanka Accord, has been retained.

13A allows the devolution of power of land and the police to the Provinces and also the amalgamation of provinces. The monks fear that devolution of power over land and police will led to secession of the Tamil-speaking North and East.

It was due to the 13A that the Northern and Eastern Provinces were amalgamated to form a single Tamil-majority North-Eastern Province. But to the chagrin of the Tamil minority, the two provinces were de-merged in 2016 by a Supreme Court order.

No To Abolition of Concurrent List

The monks said that the abolition of the “Concurrent List” of subjects on which both the Center and the Provinces can legislate is meant to serve the “separatists’ agenda.”

The fact that the sub-committee on Center-Periphery relations was headed by a Tamil National Alliance member showed that the government is going to act as per the demands of the “separatists” the monks said.

The TNA has been voicing the Tamils’ demand for a federal constitution with autonomy for a united Tamil speaking North-East Province..

The monks ended their statement saying: “ We are constrained to point out that the advice given by the Maha Sangha on various occasions not to engage in such a distorted constitutional process has been ignored.”

President Sirisena’s Assurance

Even as the monks issued a statement against federalism, Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena said in Amparai on Friday that he will not allow anyone to draft a constitution which will harm the unitary status of the country.

He will also not leave any room to change the given foremost place for Buddhism in the existing constitution.

The draft report for a new constitutional proposals does not in any way project the  concept of a Federal State, he said.

Sirisena made these remarks addressing a religious ceremony held at the Gamunupura Buddhist Center in Ampara..

He told the Mahanayaka Theros that there is still no draft proposal for a new constitution. The report which was presented to Parliament merely took into consideration ideas and suggestions of all the parties, leaving room for alterations, discussions and negotiations, he explained.

“The Government is paying attention to providing solutions for the problems faced by the people in the Northern and Eastern Provinces, ensuring sustainable peace in the country, building reconciliation among all the communities in a way which will prevent the recurrence of war,” Sirisena said.

He requested the Manayaka Theros and all religious leaders including Hindu, Islamic and Christian, to discuss constitutional changes sitting round a table.

13 Provincial Legislators Defect From Sirisena Party  

But despite Sirisena’s assurances, 13 members the North Central Provincial Council belonging to his Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) defected to the opposition camp led by his rival, former President Mahinda Rajapaksa.

They said on Friday that they are joining the Sri Lanka Podjana Peramuna (SLPP) floated by G.L.Peiris, a Rajapaksa loyalist.

Rajapaksa, who is becoming popular among the Sinhalese Buddhist masses as a result of the lackluster performance of the Sirisena-led coalition government, is expected to field candidates under the SLPP  banner in the forthcoming coming local bodies and Provincial Council elections.

(The featured image at the top shows Most Ven. Bellanwila Wimalaratna Thero)

Challenges before Yahapalana leadership

Saturday, September 30, 2017

Though in general the pro-democracy mass movement believed it was the Mahinda group and the Executive Presidency that led to mega corruption, with an authoritative rule and ousting Mahinda regime would solve all problems, their hopes began to fade off soon after their victory. They were forced to accept that Yahapalanaya too included men of corruption and racism.

It is true that mass agitation and satyagraha was able to remove Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe and others, but the reluctance of the Sirisena-Wickremesinghe social liberal Government to break off from the chauvinist Mahinda politics that drag this country into a further mess needs to be corrected. It is not possible to defeat Rajapaksa by running a marathon with him, simply because the man is off on a Sinhala Buddhist track.

Main crises the country is facing, is based on Sinhala Buddhist chauvinism. Latter has nothing to do with patriotism or Buddhist ethics. The unethical and insane public participation of Buddhist monks on the streets collecting money for penalties imposed by a Court of Law is a manifestation of fascistic politics of Mahinda group.

The Yahapalana leadership, either the President or the Prime Minister, must take this issue seriously enough to challenge that and tell the people, this is no issue for Buddhist monks to play politics with and it insults all true Buddhists. In spite of such friction, in Lanka, a radical overhaul is underway - of the political, economic, and social system. In another way, an unrecognized revolution is taking place. That means the upsurge of masses that took place two years back is still surging forward.

New Constitution

A new Constitution is being discussed, at the same time, a series of radical reforms are being rushed through. The fact that many of these reforms are being challenged as unconstitutional obviously indicates that the coming new Constitution is aimed at making what is un-Constitutional today, Constitutional tomorrow; making legal what is illegal by changing the fundamental laws of the country. Yes, this is a revolution without bloodshed, at least so far. It is the fundamental and inalienable right of the people to determine the economic, social, and political system in which they choose to live. This choice is their choice because it is freely made, not with a gun pointed at their heads. This is true for all nationalities living in Lanka.

Today, the world is maintained by G 2O agreement and Sri Lanka finds itself practically under a collective global power strategic objective and its global hegemony. This emerged after the international economic crisis after 2008. In spite of political changes taking place in the whole world including America, the international political balance of G 20 is still working.

It is indeed in this world reality that the US Ambassador chose to announce Washington’s decision to assist Sri Lanka draft its Constitution and implement the Human Rights Council resolution. We must remember the power of working masses of the frontline global powers expressed by leaders such as Bernie Sunders and Jeremy Corbyn. We are living in a world where the US depend on money and support given by China in difficult days. Gone are the days of US support ground forces on enemy territory and patrols provocatively close to China. It is also with Indian friendship that from Temple Trees the Acting US Assistant Secretary of State Alice Wells declared, last week, that “the United States is – and will continue to be – an Indo-Pacific power.” Anyone can see that rewriting the Constitution under such conditions can only advance the cause of all nationalities in Lanka and nothing else.

Of course there are guns pointed at Lanka due to the heinous crimes committed by fascistic Mahinda regime: the 2015 Human Rights resolution and the strict IMF/World Bank conditions including the populist political condition popularly known as ‘Good Governance,' a grudging recognition by the global capital the power of masses for unity with the national interest. Yes, ‘Good Governance'– or “Yahapalana” as people know it here – was not invented by simpletons or potta Tamils following Mahinda.

The IMF, World Bank and the US Treasury coined the term in the late 1980s as to identify the project to deviate the revolutions and uprisings in the Third World to liberal ends; a political conditionality for keeping indebted Third World countries such as ours within the system of global capitalism.

'Good Governance' takes politics out of government and manages a shift from government to governance. By doing so, it has undermined the conflict between liberals and the left. For a limited period where national reconciliation and power sharing has been implemented, it neutralised identity conflicts, especially in multi-ethnic societies. One can find the same words in the Human Rights Council resolution and in the ‘good governance’ conditionality: 'rule of law,' 'democracy,' devolution,' 'participation,' etc. These are the same positive words used eagerly by the Yahapalana regime.

Oppressed masses

In January 2016 last year, the Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe told Parliament that the purpose of the new Constitution was, in addition to national unification, to establish “a political culture that respects the rule of law and strengthens democracy.” The other aim of ‘Good Governance’ is to convert the absolutist chauvinist State into effective and strong state agencies that guarantee the interests of the oppressed masses.

Populist and racist leaders in countries like ours misused elections to create racial and nationality conflicts. Such politics become a threat to democracy as minorities and displaced people shifted to use terrorism to challenge discrimination and differential treatment. Then anti-terror actions will be used by the state with the connivance of world powers, mainly US. This not only means that the State will no longer serve the public interest; it will actually be turned into a repressive State against the very people it must serve. This is exactly what happened in Lanka under fascistic Mahinda regime. Clearly, good governance should arrest such developments.

Even in America, Donald Trump came to power by using democratic elections; But American people today rising against the policies of Donald Trump using massive street campaigns. Even the World Bank admits that good governance could be anti-democratic, that it demands measures directed against the expectations of the majority of the people. In a 2002 report, the World Bank was explicit: “Good governance requires the power to carry out policies and to develop institutions that may be unpopular among some - or even a majority - of the population.”

In the previous presidential elections, Mahinda won and he started with dragging Marshal Fonseka to prison with torture. Almost everything done by that regime of Mahinda and Gotabhaya was wrong. Obviously, the majority doesn’t mean good governance. Behind both these threats – the Human Rights Council resolution and the IMF/World Bank conditionality - is the same face: fascistic Mahinda. Let’s be clear. The demands contained in the Human Rights Council resolution are not because Lanka was good, but Lanka happened to be cruel and racist under Mahinda. 

Sil Redi Case: A Crime, Bribe Or A Pious Act?

By Siri Gamage –OCTOBER 2, 2017

Dr. Siri Gamage

There have been a court decision in regard to sil redi distribution case during the previous Presidential election in 2015 and recently two high-ranking public officials were found guilty of a wrongful action. Since this decision, various commentaries upon commentaries appeared in the Sri Lankan media on the subject. Some justifying the court decision and others critical of it. In terms of the latter, the latest is an article by C. A Chandraprema in The Sunday Island. Chandraprema argues that the two public officials should not have been found guilty on various grounds, one being that the 600 million was only a temporary transfer from the Telecommunications Regulatory Authority to be paid back by the Presidential Secretariat later. He shows that such transfers or borrowings of large sums are quite normal in the way the government bureaucracy works in Sri Lanka.  Furthermore, he argues that if the two officials are truly guilty of a crime, then the monks in charge of 11000 odd temples that took possession of sil redi must also be guilty.

Another argument advanced is that the two officials are not politically involved figures and they did not gain personally from the exercise. Moreover, the main political actors in the Rajapaksa camp were not seen directly involved in the distribution of sil redi at the time in question. This line of argument by Chandraprema is not very convincing when considering the issue in its political context. I tend to think that this case is not one that can be explained away simply as a bureaucratic or technical act performed by state officials without knowing the legal, moral and political implications – as it happened in the middle of a hard fought election campaign to elect the President of the country. One should not forget the fact that the election was called early, the incumbent contested it for the third term after changing the constitution, previous common candidate Fonseka faced a prison term after the previous election, and many civil society organisations and then opposition parties feared for the further loss of democratic rights and the dawn of a family dictatorship if things went the other way. Let’s not worry about these aspects for the time being. Let’s consider the issue in its context and in terms of implications.

If the President or his secretariat decides to distribute sil redi to the Buddhist devotees outside the election campaign after he really feels for their devotion to Dhamma or due to another thought bubble that led him to believe this is something that he should do to encourage the devotees to continue with their meditation/mindfulness exercises, or out of pure compassion, then it would have been an admirable step. Even then, a question arises as to why only Buddhist devotees? Why no redi for Hindu or other devotees? The usual practice in the country is for the Buddhist devotees to find their own sil redi when observing sil on full moon days. Children and other close family members buy sil redi for parents, grand parents, aunts and uncles as an act of loving kindness and obligation. This is not something that is considered extra expensive or burdensome by most families as the cost of a sil reddais not that high. In today’s world, it may cost the same as a couple of coconuts. In fact, middle class families would consider it is an offensive act if someone offers free sil redi because it implies that the receiving family does not have the means to purchase them. The case in regard to families with lessor means may be different as they look for any material benefit that come their way to meet daily needs.  Donating sil redi as a charitable act has its value and meaning in the Sri Lankan Buddhist way of life, particularly in terms of the INTENTION of the donor.

The point about this case is that the sil redi were distributed to Buddhist temples encouraging the monks to distribute them among devotees according to their wishes and needs of the devotee community. According to Chandraprema, this was a gift from Mahinda Rajapaksa following Mahinda chintanaya. Was it not from Mahinda Rajapaksa the Presidential candidate? Did the Buddhist devotees in temple precincts solicit this gift or was it unsolicited? Does the relevant fund in the Presidential Secretariat define what such charitable acts are and how the money should be spent? Or is it undefined? It appears that these redi were distributed to temples lock stock and barrel without necessary checks and balances that should follow when the act involved public money. The episode implies a scheme that is intended for all intents and purposes as one designed at the highest levels to gain a political advantage to the incumbent by using public funds whether they were borrowed from another government entity or not. Though giving a gift to Buddhist devotees by using one’s own money is a meritorious act, any attempt to characterise the use of RS 600 million during an election campaign in the same way does not make sense.

The sum involved in this case is also not a small amount. If we look at Rs 600 million in terms of the equipment required at Maharagama cancer hospital, it is enough to buy not one Petscan machine but three. The ease with which the sil redi distribution took place at the stroke of a pen and the context beg the question as to its propriety in terms of political morality, if not legal liability. Imagine for a moment that present President’s secretary exercised a similar act by using powers of the Presidential secretariat and public money during an election campaign? The cry will be louder than thunder. Logic will be converse. Demonstrations will be everywhere.  Moreover, this act occurred during a caretaker period before an election. Did the caretaker principles apply in this case?

This case has to be viewed in the context of election campaigns where the incumbent governing party leaders tend to utilise state resources such as vehicles, media time, personnel, in their political campaigns. Opposition leaders complain about such misuse of state resources to no avail. Election monitoring agencies also write critical commentaries. Nonetheless might is right doctrine prevails. During the last Presidential election campaign, many more kind hearted activities occurred including the invitations received by hundreds and thousands of public servants and others to the Temple Trees for a meal, meeting and greeting session with the incumbent President. The expenses were borne, according to media reports, by various arms of the government. Larger than life cut outs of the incumbent President were erected by district and electorate organisers in many parts of the island as a mark of gratitude. In such a context, sil redi distribution in the manner it happened cannot be explained even in hindsight as a normal bureaucratic act that did not have political underpinnings even though the activity had been mooted since 2014 as claimed by Chandraprema.

For all intense and purpose, it was an activity aimed at political gain for the incumbent Presidential candidate at the time rather than purely a pious act ordered by the then President and implemented by equally pious officialdom out of a concern for egalitarianism, social justice and welfare of the Buddhist devotees. According to Chandraprema’s articulation, Samurdhi officers at grass roots level conducted a survey and sil redi was identified, as a community need. How neutral are these Samurdhi officers and how objective was the survey? Did the temple monks distribute sil redi to the devotees as instructed? Were there any excess redi in certain temples that found their way to shops? There are so many questions one can raise even about the plight of sil redi once they reached temples.  We all know what happens to atapirikara when devotees donate them to Sangha.

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