A temporary salve: Implications of an oil bear market on the Sri Lankan economy

By Vishvanathan Subramaniam-Friday, 21 July 2017

Sri Lanka’s fuel bill has been spiralling as of late. According to a recent Central Bank press release on external sector performance, petroleum purchases for the first four months of 2017 were estimated at $ 1.2 billion. This represents a colossal 75% increase in the value of such imports, when compared to tabulated estimates for the corresponding period last year.

This development is of great concern. Given Sri Lanka’s dependency on imported fuel for domestic consumption, swings in global non-renewable energy markets will have direct implications on the nation’s ability to reduce its trade deficit and sustain growth prospects.

This article examines recent trends in global oil markets and analyses corresponding impacts on the domestic economy. It suggests that while global oil prices are expected to decline in the short to medium term, Sri Lanka cannot be expected to maximise growth potential and ensure energy independency due to several structural inefficiencies. Rather, bearish oil market outlooks provide a thin window of opportunity to implement timely socio-economic reforms, sans excessive concerns of exogenous shocks.

International markets 

International markets witnessed a precipitous drop in oil prices during the last four years. Crude prices – as per the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reference basket – plunged from an average of $ 112/barrel in June 2014 to $ 26.50/barrel by February 2016. While a brief resurgence in the market led to prices reaching $ 54/barrel by April 2017, recent announcements of production gains in several producer nations has exacerbated market volatility. As of mid-July 2017, the average price of the OPEC crudes had decreased to $ 45/barrel.  

Looking ahead, oil price forecasts are contingent upon the production decisions of major suppliers. It is common knowledge that oversupply has been the principal cause for sluggish market conditions. However, while calls for production cuts have continued to resonate amongst producer circles, they have not been backed by adequate implementation mechanisms. Rather, major oil producers such as the United States, Iran, Libya and Nigeria are expected to increase their supply capacity in the coming months.

Considering the above, market experts view future prospects with reserved pessimism. Projections appear to indicate that crude prices are expected to hover at a reduced $ 45-55 range for the rest of 2017.

Domestic concerns

The import price of crude oil had risen from $44 per barrel in April 2016 to $ 56.5 per barrel by April 2017, proving to be a principal cause for escalating fuel purchase values. Therein, projections as indicated above suggest that Sri Lanka can be expected to register a lower fuel import bill over the coming months. While this translates as good news, the actual scale of benefits is contingent upon contemporary economic conditions. Potential outcomes can perhaps be gauged by reviewing the effects of the previous oil slump experienced between the years 2014 and 2016.

In 2013, Central Bank reports indicate that Sri Lanka’s annual petroleum import was valued at $ 4.2 billion, and encompassed 23% of the aggregate import bill. By 2016, the value of petroleum imports had decreased by 45% to $ 2.3 billion, and comprised 11% of aggregate imports. In addition, prices of petrol and diesel in retail markets (calculated using Central Bank annual reports) were decreased by approximately 25%, while the price of kerosene was slashed by 40% during the given period.

Despite declines in fuel import values, Sri Lanka’s trade deficit continued to linger at the 11% of GDP threshold between 2014 and 2016. Gross Official Reserves dipped from $ 8.2 billion in December 2014 to $ 6 billion in December 2016, regardless of significant reductions in the fuel bill. Moreover, Sri Lanka’s GDP growth averaged 4.7% per annum, considerably lower than the South Asian average of 7.1% per annum for the three-year period.

A cursory glance of such comparisons might tempt readers to surmise that favourable oil market outlooks have not translated to tangible benefits to Sri Lanka’s economy. However, this is not true – Sri Lanka’s sombre performance can be attributed to a complex interplay of several determinants. In such a scenario, one can argue that dampened fuel prices did indeed play a beneficial role in alleviating economic pressures.

Notable contractions in the value of fuel imports helped to counter balance external sector risks caused by lacklustre export performance. Stark reductions in retail prices (of petroleum derivatives) assuaged inflationary pressures, kindled by disruptions in agricultural sector performance, and weakened rupee outlooks. Cheaper fuel provided industries a cost-effective and dependable energy alternative to the national power grid, which has unfortunately been riddled with capacity issues as of late.

In this context, it can be surmised that lower oil prices, during the period 2014 to 2016, played a crucial role in buttressing a fragile Sri Lankan economy. It helped the island nation tolerate structural inefficiencies that would have otherwise hastened an economic downturn.

Given that such inefficiencies will continue to linger in the short to medium term, predictions of a bearish oil market will be met with signs of relief. Sri Lanka has now been offered a vital, albeit undeserved, breathing space to usher in urgent economic reforms.

Energy dependence

In addition, Sri Lanka’s dependency on external petroleum sources necessitates the establishment of a streamlined and cost-effective energy procurement platform for stable growth. An examination of recent import history reveals concerning trends in this regard. Between 2013 and 2016, quantities of refined petroleum imports increased by 33%, while the quantity of crude oil imports decreased by 3%. Concurrently, domestic petroleum consumption increased by 25% within the given period. Therein, swelling rates of domestic petroleum consumption has been largely satiated by an increased inflow of refined petroleum derivatives.

This development will be met with concern given its adverse impact on cost efficiency. Refined petroleum products are priced higher than crude oil, due to high margins placed on refinery operations. Sri Lanka could have made tremendous savings by importing crude and utilising domestic industry to process derivatives. Unfortunately, this strategy is unviable due to capacity and process constraints in the country’s sole refinery in Sapugaskanda.  

Furthermore, increased reliance on refined petroleum imports exposes Sri Lanka to additional layers of extraneous risk. Petroleum inflows will now be contingent upon producer and processer stability, regardless of contractual developments. In Sri Lanka’s case, trade statistics indicate that approximately 35% ($ 591 million) of Sri Lanka’s refined petroleum imports for 2016 were purchased from Singaporean refineries. However, Singapore does not possess a significant indigenous source of crude oil. Rather, its refineries depend on crude imports from the Middle East and Malaysia. Through such a trade, Sri Lanka is sensitised to intra-industrial and geographical shocks over which the county has minimal control.

Future prospects

While the current drive to maximise Sri Lanka’s trade potential is encouraging, the long-drawn nature of contemporary decision-making is of concern. A sense of urgency is essential, given that Sri Lanka remains exposed to external sector shocks precariously linked to fluctuations in energy costs. Fortunately, slumping oil market sentiments – anticipated in the short to medium term – mean that the country has been provided a narrow window of opportunity to initiate reforms measures that foster energy and economic sustainability. It is imperative that actions are hastened to capitalise on this breathing space. If such chances remain untaken, Sri Lanka will soon be forced to face economic concerns on multiple fronts.


(The writer is a Research Assistant at the Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka (IPS). To view this article online and to share your comments, visit the IPS Blog ‘Talking Economics’ – http://www.ips.lk/talkingeconomics/.)

PM’s PR office to accept complaints on corruption, malpractices

2017-07-21

Complaints regarding corruption in the state sector could be lodged with the newly set up Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s public relations office, officials of the premier’s office said yesterday.

This was announced by the head of PR at the Prime Minister’s office J. Dadallage and Deputy Chief of Staff of the Prime Minister’s office Rosy Senanayake yesterday morning.

Mr. Dadallage told journalists that complaints regarding corruption made to this office would then be referred to the relevant investigating institutions such as the Financial Crimes Investigation Division (FCID), CID and the Bribery Commission.

This was in reply to a question posed to him by journalists as to whether the Prime Minister’s Public Relations office had any mandate to look into corruption. “Some of the issues which various people brought to the attention of the Prime Minister’s office were complaints about corruption and malpractices, which we have referred to the relevant institutions and we will do the same in the future as well,” he said.

Ms. Senanayake explained that the Prime Minister’s office had received 48, 816 complaints from the general public so far this year. She said this comprises various issues they were facing and some complaints of malpractices.

“What we intend doing in this office is to receive the complaints and requests from the general public, refer them to the relevant government institutions and obtain feedback on them,” she said.
She said even issues faced by public servants could also be referred to this office for a solution for a solution to be found.

Prime Minister’s Public Relations Office, which is located in the building where the Anti Corruption Secretariat was housed earlier, was declared open last morning. (Yohan Perera)

Retired DIG to be probed for child sexual abuse 

Jul 21, 2017

A retired DIG, Keerthi Silva, is due to be summoned to the women and children’s bureau in Nugegoda to investigate a child sexual abuse charge against him, say bureau sources.

A young girl has complained that Silva had abused her for a long period when she was underage, and after it was exposed to her family, the retired policeman had given her a land and a house to settle the matter.

Her complaint follows Silva’s having expelled her from the house recently.

He had to retire from service over a treasure hunting accusation while he was in charge of the eastern region, and there are many more incidents involving him, police sources add

SRI LANKA: Arrest of another DIG indicates a serious crisis in the state’s machinery

Senior DIG Lalith Jayasinghe arrested on gang rape and murder of school girl ! Justice arrives two years too late !!

 

By Basil Fernando-July 21, 2017

DIG Lalith A Jayasinghe was arrested and is now being remanded for harbouring an offender and aiding the escape of the chief suspect Swiss Kumar, for the gang rape and the murder of 18 year old Sivaloganathan Vidya on 13 May 2015. The DIG is suspected of having committed an offence punishable under Section 209 of the Penal Code. The relevant part of which is as follows;

“… Whenever an offence has been committed, whoever harbours, conceals, assists, or maintains a person whome he knows or has reason to believe to be the offender, with the intention of screening him from legal punishment, shall, if the offence is punishable with death, be punished with imprisonment of either description for a term which may extend to five years, and shall also be liable to fine;…”

This is the first time in Sri Lanka that a serving DIG has been arrested for a criminal offence. However, former DIG Vas Gunawardena was convicted and sentenced to death on charges of abducting and murdering a businessman. Former DIG Anura Senanayake was in remand over a long period and is now released on bail relating to the murder of rugby player Vaseem Thajudeen. Several ASPs have also been convicted or charged with serious criminal offences. A much larger number of OICs have also been convicted or charged with similar serious criminal offences.

The policing service is the premier law enforcement agency in Sri Lanka. Its basic task is to investigate into crimes and also to prevent the occurrence of crimes. The authority of this institution is now being seriously undermined by accusations of crimes being committed by some officers holding topmost high ranking posts within this important institution.

When things go that bad in an institution, which is of such prime importance, it is not enough to take criminal actions against particular offenders. It is necessary to scrutinize what has gone wrong with the whole institution. A policing system is monolithic system which operates on the basis of control from the top to the bottom. It is a strict system of command and control, and actions of the officers of lower ranks are entirely in the hands of officers of higher ranks. The system works on the basis of command responsibility which is a doctrine of accountability of superior officers regarding all others who act under their direction and command. This system can function only to the extent that the principle of command responsibility is respected and maintained within the organization. When officers holding topmost posts are being convicted or charged for serious crimes, what it indicates is that the entire structure of this institution is seriously contaminated and is crying for reforms.

Speedy actions to undertake such reforms is required not only to maintain the integrity of the institution but also to maintain the security of the people. When the people see that the protecting institution is itself contaminated and is led by some criminals, the only natural consequence to be expected is that they will have contempt, instead of confidence in this institution. The existence of such a situation is seriously damaging to the entire nation.

The state cannot maintain its authority, when the people lose faith in the basic institutions that constitutes the mechanism or the apparatus of the state. Crisis of policing is a crisis of the basic structure of the state in Sri Lanka.

No government can properly govern if the basic institutions of the state, such as the policing system are so badly damaged, to the extent that these institutions are incapable of delivering the basic services that they are designed to deliver.

The President, the Prime Minister, and the entire government have not taken a single step to ensure reforms in the important institutions of the state such as the institution of policing. That is what makes the talk on good governance just an empty talk.

Anyone who believes that there can be good governance in a country that has a bad policing system is suffering from serious and dangerous delusions.

Senior DIG Jayasinghe suspended from duties

By Roosindu Peris-July 21, 2017

The National Police Commission has approved the suspension of Senior DIG, Lalith Jayasinghe. 

The Commission has approved the request put forward by the Inspector General of Police (IGP) in writing, to suspend Jayasinghe from his duties. 

Senior DIG Lalith Jayasinghe, who was arrested on the 15 of this month (July), was remanded till the July 25 after being produced at the Kayts Magistrates Court. 

Jayasinghe was arrested for allegedly helping a suspect in the murder of schoolgirl Sivaloganathan Vidya in Jaffna to evade arrest.

The 18-year-old student from Pungudutivu was abducted, raped and murdered while returning from school on May 13, 2015.

The incident sparked wide-spread condemnation and protests especially in her hometown of Jaffna while 9 suspects were arrested and indicted over the murder. 

The chief suspect in the case, Mahalingam Shashikumar, was captured by residents in the area and handed over to the authorities, but was later released by Kayts Police. 

Mangala slams police over abduction bid

Minister Samaraweera addresses reporters in Colombo yesterday.

by Amal Jayasinghe-July 21, 2017, 10:24 pm 

Police faced censure Friday over an attempt to "abduct" a student activist, a tactic widely used against dissidents by the previous strongman leader’s regime.

Finance Minister Mangala Samaraweera said he lodged a protest with police chief Pujith Jayasundara over an attempt by plain-clothed officers to seize on Thursday night a student known for his anti-government views.

Other students prevented him from being grabbed by the plain clothed officers.

Samaraweera said the "white van abduction" was to recreate the fear psychosis associated with former strongman leader Mahinda Rajapaksa’s regime.

The minister said the new government came to power in January 2015 promising to end the "white van culture" and ensure people had more freedom, but the latest police action was a retrograde step.

"I spoke with the Inspector General of Police and he said he will take disciplinary action against those responsible," the minister told reporters in Colombo. "We condemn this action of the police."

Being "white-vanned" had become a verb synonymous with being abducted — a tactic widely used by Sri Lankan forces to deal with troublesome opponents during Rajapakse’s decade in power.

The abduction attempt came hours after President Maithripala Sirisena gave legal effect to a 2016 law which established an office to trace the tens of thousands of people who went missing during the island’s decades-long ethnic war.

Samaraweera told the police chief that the timing of the illegal police action suggested there may be elements trying to discredit the administration.

Anti-government activists stage regular protests against the government’s free market economic reforms, including allowing private medical education.

Under the previous regime police and security forces killed several people when they fired at them during anti-government demonstrations. White vans were deployed to abduct dissidents.(AFP)

MFSAC Convener's arrest attempt fails: Police blames distractions caused by students

2017-07-20 2

The commotion that was created when a group of police officers, some in uniform and others in civvies, attempted to arrest Medical Faculty Students' Action Committee (MFSAC) Convener Ryan Jayalath at the conclusion of a joint meeting by the Government Medical Officers’ Association (GMOA) and several other organisations to protest against the SAITM, ended in failure.

It was reported that Jayalath along with several other MFSAC representatives had attended a discussion organised by the ‘SAITM Virodi Jana Paura’, a recently formed anti-SAITM force at the GMOA office located at the OPA (Organisation of Professional Associations in Sri Lanka) building on Prof. Stanley Wijesundera Mawatha, Colombo 7.

The initial attempt to arrest Jayalath by a group of persons had met with failure due to protests from the crowd that had gathered at the venue. Subsequently, the Colombo Crime Division (CCD) with the help of the police, who arrived at the scene without an arrest warrant had attempted to take away the student however the attempt failed because those present at the venue intervened to stop it.

A tense situation arose when National Trade Union Centre (NTUC) Chairman K. D. Lal Kantha and the General Secretary of the Ceylon Teachers' Services Union Mahinda Jayasinghe attempted to prevent the police from taking Jayalath into custody. As a result the law enforcement officers were forced to leave the premises in a ‘white van’ without taking the MFSAC Convener into custody.

After the police left a student who pretended that he was Jayalath, had got into Lal Kantha’s vehicle to mislead the police personnel. However the actual Jayalath was seen escaping along with the crowd that had gathered.

When contacted, Colombo DIG Lalith Pathinayake told Daily Mirror that they believed the students had created a commotion to help Jayalath escape arrest.

He said Ryan Jayalath has four arrest warrants against him for evading the courts and he was also wanted for breaking and entering into the Health Ministry building. Therefore, DIG Pathinayake said it was not necessary to have an arrest warrant as the police already have the power to arrest him on sight.

Meanwhile, the Medical Faculty Students' Union, University of Sri Jayewardenepura also commenced an anti-SAITM rally to be held today over the government’s alleged attempt to suppress student union conveners. (Thilanka Kanakarathna)

Mahinda-Dinesh - ‘cat is out of the bag’

Jul 21, 2017

It appears that the old adage ‘cat is out of the bag’ needs to be rewritten when it comes to Mahinda Rajapaksa and his die-hard loyalist Dinesh Gunawardena. That is because what had happened earlier this month.

The presidential commission investigating serious acts of corruption summoned the former water supply minister for a hearing at the BMICH 10.00 am on July 10.

At 9.50 am, a special person came there uninvited, to the surprise of all, because the commission had not sent summons to him. He was Mahinda Rajapaksa himself. Going to him, commission officials inquired from him respectfully as to why he had come.

“No. No. You have summoned our Dinesh. I came to give him some morale,” Mahinda told them. Then, he seated himself, and swinging his legs as usual, told the onlookers, “This fellow is late. It seems I am the accused. Anyway, this fellow is in trouble because he did what we told him to do. So, at least I should come and sit like this.”

It was Lanka News Web that exposed several frauds by Dinesh as the water supply minister.

Dinesh’s water deal exposed !

Al-Aqsa dispute leaves 3 Palestinians, 3 Israeli settlers dead

Israeli police enter hospital, witnesses believed they were looking for those wounded in protests

Israeli forces grapple with a Palestinian worshipper outside Jerusalem's Old City on 21 July, 2017 (AFP)

Lubna Masarwa- Friday 21 July 2017

Three Palestinians were shot dead and four others protesters were injured as thousands of Palestinian worshippers clashed with Israeli security forces on a "day of rage" over Israeli control of Islam's third holiest site. Israel's army said that three Israeli settlers were stabbed to death and a fourth was wounded in a knife attack in the Israeli West Bank settlement of Neve Tsuf on Friday.

Mohammad Sharaf, 17, was reported to have been shot by an Israeli settler in the Ras Alamood area in east Jerusalem. Mohammed Hassan Abu Ghannam, 19, died from his wounds in al-Makassad hospital after he was shot by an Israeli settler in East Jerusalem. 

A third Palestinian was killed in Abu Dis, AFP reported quoting Palestinian officials saying. "A Palestinian was killed after he was shot in the heart by live bullets," the Palestinian health ministry said.

Footage on social media shows Ghannam's body being carried over the hospital gate by members of the Palestinian paramedics and protesters.

#Palestinians pray Juma (Friday prayer) on the Salahaddin al-Ayyubi street in #Jerusalem. pic.twitter.com/ANyYKnMTGa

— Ali Özkök (@A_Ozkok) July 21, 2017

The army said in a statement that the four victims were Israeli civilians and that the assailant was also shot. It was not known whether he was killed or wounded.

Israel Radio identified him as a 19-year-old Palestinian from the West Bank village of Khobar near Ramallah.

The deaths came as thousands of Palestinians clashed with police following peaceful prayers around the Old City. Those inside refused to enter the Noble Sanctuary and the Aqsa mosque in protest at new Israeli security checkpoints at two key entrances.

The sanctuary has for a week been subjected to increased security measures, including metal detectors, that many in Palestine see as an attempt to gain control of the site.

Worshippers outside the Old City were scattered soon after Friday prayers as Israeli police fired tear gas and rubber bullets into the crowds in Salah al-Din Street. Four Palestinians were reported injured.

Ahmad Abdul Salaam, who came to pray outside the Noble Sanctuary, said: "Putting these metal detectors at the entrance to our place of worship is like putting them at the entrance to our house. Are you really going to put me through a metal detector as I go into my house?"

Israeli police enter hospital

Israeli police also entered al-Makassad hospital in Jerusalem, and asked employees to leave. Witnesses said they believed Israeli officers were looking for those wounded in the clashes.

Earlier the hospital released a statement asking for blood donations due to the number of injured.

The Israeli action after prayers came on a day Palestinian leaders had promised a "day of rage" over Israel's moves to control access to the Noble Sanctuary following an attack by gunmen last week that killed two Israeli police.

Talks to remove metal detectors from the gated entrances collapsed overnight as Palestinian Authority negotiators refused to accept Israel's offer of subjecting only "suspicious people" to metal detection checks.

Israel had poured thousands of extra police into the city in response. Police were seen taking up positions above crowds of worshippers, armed with baton rounds and assault rifles.

مشاهد من الهجوم الجنوني لقوات الاحتلال على المصلين في عدة أحياء بالقدس#جمعة_الأقصى pic.twitter.com/9EwooYqBRX

— Amr Elqazaz (@amrsalama) July 21, 2017

Officials including the Palestinian Authority's chief negotiator, Hatem Abdel-Kader, were arrested shortly after the talks failed.

Speaking to MEE before his arrest, Abdel-Kader, said: "The Israeli offer to keep the metal detectors in place, but only require suspicious individuals to pass through them, was unreservedly rejected by the Palestinians.

"There will be an escalation tomorrow. Clashes will inevitably continue until freedom of religion is restored."

Clashes between Palestinians hurling stones and Israeli police using stun grenades have been a daily occurrence in East Jerusalem since metal detectors were placed on Saturday at entrances to the Noble Sanctuary, which includes al-Aqsa mosque.

Israel installed the metal detectors after three Palestinian-Israeli gunmen shot dead two Israeli policemen on 14 July outside the Noble Sanctuary complex in one of the most serious attacks in the area in years. Israeli security forces killed the assailants.

Religious figures and Palestinian politicians called for resistance on Friday morning to what is widely seen across Palestine as an attempt by Israel to control al-Aqsa.

مراسلتنا: مواطنون غاضبون يشيعون جثمان الشهيد محمد محمود شرف (١٨ عامًا) الذي استشهد برصاص مستوطن في حي راس العامود شرق القدس#جمعه_الاقصي pic.twitter.com/EKWkvQ9GOB

— وكالة صفا (@SafaPs) July 21, 2017

Abdala Athem Salhab, the head of the Waqf counsel which administers the Noble Sanctury site, said: "We are all united and it's our responsibility to protect the Aqsa mosque - we won't step back. We are asking Jordan to intervene to remove the doors, otherwise Israel is leading the area to religious war."

Ahmed Tibi, a member of the Israeli parliament for the Arab List coalition, said it was the duty of Palestinians in Israel and Jerusalem and the West Bank "to act now in order to protect the Aqsa from the Israeli forces. The Aqsa is not only a religion issue but also a political one."

"Our response to Netanyahu is that we say no to the detectors and we will continue the protest. We hope the Islamic world and the international community take action to stop the violations."

Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas spoke with Jared Kushner, senior adviser and son-in-law to Donald Trump, who has been tasked with resolving the Middle East peace impasse, reported Wafa, the official Palestinian news agency.

Abbas called on Washington to immediately intervene, saying that the situation was "extremely dangerous and might spiral out of control," the agency said.

Violations 

Muslim religious authorities claim the metal detectors violate a delicate agreement on worship and security arrangements at the Jerusalem site and have urged Palestinians not to pass through. Prayers have been held near an entrance to the complex.

On Thursday night, Israeli forces wounded 22 Palestinians at Lion's Gate, near Haram al-Sharif, in Jerusalem. According to the Red Crescent, two of those hurt are in serious condition after they were hit by a stun grenade.

Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has considered removing the devices at the Jerusalem holy site but so far the detectors remain in place.

Abdel-Kader said that the move to instal metal detectors in the compound is a power play on Israel’s part.

"The metal detectors serve no security purpose whatsoever. Rather, their erection is a political play to pressure Palestinians into relinquishing control of al-Aqsa," he told Middle East Eye.

Israeli police take high positions before Friday prayers (MEE/Lubna Masarwa)

The negotiator added that all of the mosques in Jerusalem will be closed on Friday in an effort to "direct Palestinians toward al-Aqsa", which he hopes will draw thousands of people.

"With the religious and political sensitivities surrounding al-Aqsa - as a universal sanctuary for Palestinians, Arabs and Muslims - Israel is taking a massive gamble and ultimately, crossing a red line. Undoubtedly, this may have dangerous consequences," Abdel-Kader said.

Far-right members of Netanyahu's government have publicly urged him to keep the devices in place at the flashpoint.

Still, Israeli media reports said security chiefs were divided over the issue amid concerns about wider Palestinian unrest in East Jerusalem and the West Bank.

"Israel is committed to maintaining the status quo at the Temple Mount and the freedom of access to the holy places," the security cabinet said in a statement.

"The cabinet has authorised the police to take any decision in order to ensure free access to the holy places while maintaining security and public order."

Power cuts put lives of Gaza kidney patients in danger

Dialysis machines, which provide life-saving treatment to kidney patients, cannot operate properly with constant power cuts.Ashraf AmraAPA images

Charlotte Silver- 21 July 2017

The Gaza Strip’s healthcare system is failing amid an ongoing electricity crisis that has seen the territory’s two million people forced to cope with just a few hours of power a day amid sweltering summer temperatures.

In June, Israel began sharply reducing the electricity supply to Gaza – a step human rights groups said was illegal, since Israel, as the occupying power, is responsible for the welfare of the civilian population.

This came after the Palestinian Authority drastically reduced electricity payments to Israel, as part of its effort to squeeze Hamas, the political movement that is the de facto government in Gaza.
Gaza’s power has in the past months dropped from eight hours a day to just three or four, with periods when it has fallen even lower.

Three months prior to that, the PA began restricting transfers of vital medicine to Gaza, according to health authorities in the territory.

Ashraf al-Qidra, the spokesperson for Gaza’s health ministry, told Reuters the PA reduced shipments of medicine for cancer and cystic fibrosis by 35 percent in March.

The shortage of power and medicine is taking its toll on the most vulnerable people.

Health officials estimate that 320 people in Gaza have cystic fibrosis, an incurable inherited lung disease that is life threatening without specific medicine and regular hospital treatments.

In addition to being short of vital medicines, Gaza’s hospitals are now nearly completely dependent on backup generators that regularly malfunction, causing interruptions to treatments.

Last week, al-Qidra stated that in recent weeks, 16 Palestinians in Gaza had died, because Israel and the Palestinian Authority obstructed their transfers to hospitals outside Gaza for urgent medical treatment.

Dialysis treatments disrupted

The Gaza-based Palestinian Center for Human Rights (PCHR) reported this month that power cuts have also compromised dialysis – another life-saving treatment to clean the blood of patients suffering from kidney failure.

Dialysis machines to which patients must be connected for several hours at a time cannot operate properly with the constant interruptions in the electricity supply.

As a result, blood is left in the machines, which can cause a shortage of blood and other health complications that can be fatal.

“I had a patient whose treatment was interrupted for three hours because the generator had no fuel and the blood started to clot and the patient needed a blood transfer,” Dr. Muhammad Shatat, the head of dialysis at al-Shifa Hospital, Gaza City’s largest, told PCHR.

“If this would happen on a regular basis, the patient would die after two or three days.”

Al-Shifa is the only facility that offers dialysis, forcing residents in the north and south of Gaza to make lengthy journeys to receive treatments that may not be successful.

In 2012, the United Nations predicted that Gaza would be “unlivable” by 2020. But in another report released earlier this month, the UN said the deterioration has accelerated “further and faster” than anticipated.

It noted the shortcomings of the Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism and Israel’s refusal to allow necessary material and equipment to complete reconstruction after the massive destruction of Israel’s war on Gaza in 2014.

Last year, The Electronic Intifada exclusively published the detailed terms of the Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism, along with a confidential legal analysis that had been prepared for top UN officials.

The leaked analysis said that the UN-brokered scheme violated international law, including the very right to life of Palestinians, because it tightened Israel’s control over vital construction materials entering Gaza.

Holding reconstruction hostage

Last week, Reuven Rivlin, Israel’s president, admitted that his country was deliberately holding reconstruction materials back from Gaza.

Rivlin said the return of missing Israelis and the remains of Israeli soldiers was a precondition for reconstruction.

“The rebuilding of Gaza requires the return of our sons and the cessation of all hostilities with Israel,” Rivlin said at a ceremony marking the third anniversary of Israel’s 2014 assault on Gaza that left more than 2,200 Palestinians, including 550 children, dead and caused massive devastation to civilian homes and infrastructure.

Riving said that as long as Hamas, which he termed “a brutal and murderous organization,” runs the territory, “Gaza will not be rehabilitated.”

Hamas holds the bodies of two Israeli soldiers who took part in the 2014 invasion and is believed to be detaining three Israeli civilians.

They are Avera Mengistu, 30, an Israeli of Ethiopian descent; Hisham al-Sayed, a 29-year-old from a Bedouin village in Israel, who has several psychiatric and medical disorders; and Jumaa Ibrahim Abu Ghanima, 20, whose presence in Gaza has not been confirmed.

A day before Rivlin’s speech, Ma’an News Agency reported that Egypt was trying to mediate indirect talks between Israel and Hamas to facilitate a prisoner exchange.

According to Ma’an, Hamas has been asked to supply a video proving it is holding the Israelis.
In exchange for the Israelis, Hamas is demanding that Israel release Palestinian prisoners who were originally freed in a 2011 prisoner exchange but subsequently re-arrested.

Hamas is also demanding that Israel release all female prisoners, children and Palestinian Legislative Councilmembers held by Israel.

There are currently 13 Palestinian legislators in Israeli prisons, most detained without charge or trial.

India, China on brink of war: Where are the peace mediators?

Is there anyone who can prevent India and China from going to war? For the past one month, the two countries have been involved in a major military standoff.  

2017-07-21

-The latest crisis erupted when India opposed China’s moves to extend a border road through a plateau known as Doklam in India and Donglang in China. The plateau lies at a junction where the territories of China, Bhutan and India’s north-eastern state of Sikkim meet.  The road construction work began in a section disputed by both China and Bhutan. India, supports the claim of Bhutan which is a sovereign state in all but name. It is virtually an extended territory of India. 

India fears that the new road will give Beijing a strategic advantage over an Indian territory called chicken’s neck, a corridor that links India’s seven north-eastern states to the mainland.  India responded by sending troops and stopping the construction work. This prompted China to rush in troops and smash up Indian bunkers. China’s Global Times warned India, recalling the humiliating defeat India suffered in the 1962 border war. India’s defence minister shot back, saying India of 2017 is different from what it was in 1962. 

The military deadlock continues with each side expecting the other to withdraw first, while the media in the two countries whip up nationalist fervor.  The rest of the world, meanwhile, has other priorities – and making peace between India and China is not one of them.  

The United Nations has made little noise about the escalating tension between India and China. Some countries such as the United States and Australia have urged both India and China to resolve the dispute through peaceful means. But none has offered to mediate in the dispute or become a facilitator for talks. 

Peace envoys are largely unheard of in international politics these days. ‘Let the war begins’ appears to be the norm.  Peaceful settlement of conflicts is given little importance in the post-9/11 international order. As a result, many a dispute that could have been resolved without a single bullet being fired has escalated into prolonged conflicts that have made innocent people lose lives, limbs, property, happiness, security and dignity.  

The situation was much different in the pre-9/11 era.  Even Sri Lanka played a key role in solving major international disputes and conflicts by offering its services as a peacemaker.  Sri Lanka’s efforts to solve the Suez war in 1956, the India-China border conflict in 1962 and the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s cannot be underestimated.  Third party mediation in disputes that had potential to spark a war offered a face-saving exit for parties embroiled in hostilities to withdraw from the brink of war.

When war is open business, no wonder, pre-war peace efforts have become scarce these days.  In his farewell speech in January 1961, US President Dwight Eisenhower, a World War II General, no less, called the military industrial complex a threat to democracy. He warned the Americans of the formidable union between defence contractors and the armed forces. 

The US is today the world’s number one weapons seller making a living out of wars or other people’s misery. It sells weapons to more than one hundred countries. 

Today, the military industrial complex is a mega business for many developed countries. To hell with human rights and human misery, the arms they sell fan the flames of war.  Take for instance, Britain’s arms sales to Saudi Arabia.  Last week, the British arms industry and the British Government were elated over a court ruling in favour of arms sales to Saudi Arabia.  The case was filed by the Campaign against Arms Trade. It called for a ruling to block arms sales to Saudi Arabia, claiming that the Gulf country has violated international law by using British weapons to kill civilians in Yemen’s civil war.  The court dismissed the petition.

Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International and Oxfam denounced the ruling, saying the court had ignored evidence that the Saudis have devastated Yemen’s civilian population with indiscriminate attacks.  But Prime Minister Theresa May was happy, because Saudi Arabia accounts for half of Britain’s weapons exports. 

With the revenue from killer industry becoming a crucial factor for economic stability, arms selling countries such as Britain and the US turn a blind eye to human rights excesses by big-time buyers such as Saudi Arabia. To cover up this shame, the arms selling countries, projecting themselves as human rights champions, target small-time human rights violators such as Sri Lanka and cry hoarse about the human rights situations. It is a big drama -- and in this all-villains drama, the United Nations plays the clown’s role. The less we talk about the UN, the better it is. 

Last year, the UN blacklisted Saudi Arabia for committing crimes against children caught up in war, but removed the country from the list, after Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies threatened to stop financial contributions to various UN programmes.  

Worldwide countries spend more than 1.8 trillion dollars on defence expenditure annually. Every year, nations spend more than US$ 100 billion on purchasing weapons.  

In a report issued in February this year, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri) says more weapons were delivered between 2012 and 2016 than any other five-year period since 1990. Saudi Arabia was the world’s second largest weapons importer, increasing its intake by 212%, mainly from the US and Britain. 

India is the world’s number one weapons importer, according to Sipri. It accounts for 13 percent of the global imports. Its Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a visit to Israel last months inked several deals with the Zionist state to procure 630 million dollars’ worth of weapons and defence systems.
China, according to Sipri, is increasingly able to substitute arms imports with indigenous products and has solidified its position as a top-tier arms supplier.

It is no exaggeration to say that India and China, both nuclear power states, are armed to the teeth. Besides, no one can give a guarantee that a war between them will not see the use of nuclear weapons.  

Thus there is an urgent need to bring the two states to the negotiating table.  This is all the more reason why India and China should enhance efforts at confidence-building measures.  Certainly India’s recent Malabar military exercise with the United States and Japan in the Indian Ocean was not a confidence-building measure. But India joining China’s Belt-and-Road initiative, perhaps, is one.  Will India do this? Asia’s prosperity depends on peace between India and China.

Qatar's ruler says time to resolve differences in talks

Aziz El Yaakoubi-JULY 21, 2017

DOHA (Reuters) - Qatar's emir called on Friday for dialogue to resolve a political crisis pitting his country against four Arab states, saying any talks must respect national sovereignty, but the call was unlikely to end the rift.

In his first speech since four Arab countries severed ties with Doha, a defiant Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani said life was continuing as normal despite what he described as an unjust "siege".

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt cut ties and imposed sanctions on Qatar last month, accusing it of financing extremist groups and supporting terrorism, which the emir denied.

"Qatar is fighting terrorism relentlessly and without compromise, and the international community recognises this," Sheikh Tamim said in the televised speech.

He spoke hours after U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said the United States was satisfied with Qatar's efforts to implement an agreement aimed at combating terror financing, and urged the four states to lift their "land blockade".

It also comes days before Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, who had supported Qatar in the crisis, was due to visit Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to try to resolve the rift.

Earlier this month during a round of shuttle diplomacy, Tillerson signed a deal with Qatar to fight terrorism financing, part of efforts led by Kuwait to try to resolve the most serious rift in the Western-allied Gulf in decades.

An official comment from the four Arab countries had yet to be issued, but a Saudi royal court advisor described it as a piece of literary work written by a school student. "Had it been written by a student in middle school he would have flunked," Saud al-Qahtani wrote on his Twitter account.

Commentators hosted by the Saudi-owned al-Arabiya television also denounced the speech.

Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani delivers a televised speech in Doha, Qatar, July 21, 2017. Qatar News Agency/Handout via REUTERS

"This is a speech of obstinacy which sends messages that Qatar will not stop supporting terrorism," said Ali al-Naimi, editor of an online news website published in the UAE.

"Previously Planned" Campaign

The crisis revolves around allegations that Qatar supports Islamist militant groups, including in Syria and Libya, and hosts members of the Muslim Brotherhood.

It began after a speech in late May by Sheikh Tamim appeared on the state news agency's website, which Doha said he had never made and indicated the website had been hacked from one of its neighbours, indicating the UAE.

The Washington Post, citing U.S. intelligence officials, last week reported that the United Arab Emirates had arranged for Qatari government social media and news sites to be hacked in order to post the fiery but false quotes. The UAE denied any involvement.

Sheikh Tamim described the sanctions as a campaign that had been pre-planned against Qatar, calling it an act of aggression against Doha's foreign policy.

"Its planners planted statements to mislead public opinion and the countries of the world," he said.

Sheikh Tamim vowed to withstand the sanctions and said he had instructed the Qatari government that Qataris should become more self-reliant and called for the economy to be opened up to foreign investments.

"The time has come for us to spare the people from the political differences between the governments," he said, urging dialogue.

"... Any solution must respect the sovereignty and will of each state."

Additional reporting by Mostafa Hashem in Cairo; Writing by Sylvia Westall and Sami Aboudi; Editing by Toni Reinhold

US friendly fire kills at least eight Afghan policemen in Helmand

Sources say US gunship bombed checkpoint just 30 minutes after police unit retook it from Taliban

Sune Engel Rasmussen in Kabul-Friday 21 July 2017

A US gunship has killed at least eight Afghan policemen in a friendly fire airstrike in Helmand, according to local officials.

The incident is a setback for the US-Afghan fight against the Taliban in the embattled province, and comes as the US administration and its Nato allies are preparing the deployment of several thousand additional troops to Afghanistan.

Since 2001, Helmand has consistently been the deadliest province for both foreign and Afghan forces. Since the international drawdown in 2014, the Talibanhas seized territory across the province, leaving the provincial capital, Lashkar Gah, and the economic hub, Gereshk, as some of the only areas still in government hands. 

The attack occurred on Friday afternoon, when, according to local police sources, an Afghan police unit retook a checkpoint captured by the Taliban on Thursday. Due to apparent miscommunication, a US gunship bombed the police unit 30 minutes later, according to police sources.

The spokesman to the provincial governor, Omar Zawak, said the number of killed and injured was not yet clear. A local government source, not authorised to speak to the media, said eight policemen had been killed. Meanwhile, a police source said up to 30 had been killed.

Among the dead were two commanders of the Afghan national police, Nasir and Mohammad Wali, locally renowned for their longstanding fight against the Taliban.

The incident followed a week of intensified US airstrikes in Helmand. The US air campaign in Afghanistan has reached a level not seen since 2012, when there were almost 10 times as many US troops in the country.

According to Bill Salvin, spokesman for the coalition forces in Afghanistan, the US has conducted more than 50 airstrikes in the province over the past five days.

In June, the US surpassed the total number of aerial attacks in Afghanistan last year, with 1,634 airstrikes conducted primarily in the south – in and around Helmand – and against Islamic State groups in the east.

Following Friday’s incident, the coalition forces said in a statement: “We can confirm local security personnel aligned with Afghan government forces were killed in an airstrike in Gereshk district in Helmand province late this afternoon.”

“During a US supported [Afghan defence forces] operation, aerial fires resulted in the deaths of the friendly Afghan forces who were gathered in a compound… An investigation will be conducted to determine the specific circumstances that led to this incident.”

The deaths in Helmand added to a particularly bloody day for the Afghan police. 

In the northeastern Badakhshan province, the Taliban killed at least 32 members of the local police and government-aligned uprising groups in a push to capture Tagaq district. Some of the people killed were murdered after the Taliban surrounded a house they were staying in, while the rest were shot in an ambush, said Abdullah Naji Nazari, the head of the provincial council.

Additional reporting by Aliyas Dayee in Lashkar Gah