Potential risks and negative implications of the proposed Foreign Exchange Bill 

Monday, 24 April 2017

From the perspective of the Government, the following are the key components of a checklist for assessment and validation prior to the enactment of the proposed Foreign Exchange Bill.

Does the Bill in its present form, post enactment:

Potential risks and negative implications of the proposed Foreign Exchange Bill.docx by Thavam Ratna on Scribd

2008 Haiti sex charge: Lankan contingent commander sacked, Major and four soldiers discharged

Sunday, April 23, 2017

The Contingent Commander of Sri Lanka Army’s peace keeping force in Haiti was sacked for bringing disrepute to the organisation whilst a Major and four soldiers were discharged for having “consensual sexual relationships” with females.

The incident, a senior Army official who spoke on grounds of anonymity said, took place in 2008 and involved the sixth Sri Lankan Peace Keeping Battalion stationed in Haiti. The official was reacting to reports in the US media last week that Sri Lanka peacekeeping troops were involved in child abuses and related activity. He said the first step by the Commander of the Army Lt Gen Crisanthe de Silva, upon receiving complaints of misconduct, was to immediately transfer the entire battalion from Haiti. This was standard procedure when allegations were levelled against a group of soldiers, he said adding that US media claims of 114 Army personnel were implicated in sexual offences were “totally wrong.”

The official said thereafter, Lt Gen Silva appointed an Army Court of Inquiry to probe the allegations. The Court, he said, recorded evidence both in Haiti and in Sri Lanka. The Court found one Major and four soldiers had “consensual sexual relationships with adult Haitian females.” They were discharged for bringing disrepute to the Army.

The Contingent Commander, the official said, was retired for command failure. In addition, eight officers and nine soldiers were disciplinarily dealt with for “various minor offences such as failure to exercise control over subordinates, failure to detect an offence and giving false evidence under oath.

The Major involved in the incident, the Court of Inquiry found, had a sexual relationship with a 31-year-old Haitian woman resulting in the birth of an illegitimate child. It was found, however, that the said relationship was a voluntary sexual encounter between two consenting adults and not a rape or any other form of sexual offence as recognised under the laws of Sri Lanka, the official said. Thereupon, Army Commander Lt. Gen. De Silva ordered that the Major be discharged “for conducting himself in a manner prejudicial to the good order and discipline of the Army.”

The official said although the Army treated the matter as closed, the United Nations had re-opened the case in 2012 and demanded child support. Under the law of Sri Lanka, however, a paternity claim is purely a civil wrong which has to be initiated by the female concerned on behalf of the child in the District Court, the official explained.

He added that at the end, however, in order to preserve the international goodwill, an ex gratia payment of US$ 50,000 was made to the Haitian female concerned. This was considering the well-being of the child since Sri Lanka is a signatory to various International Conventions related to the welfare of children.

“We categorically deny child abuse incidents attributed to the Sri Lanka Army peacekeepers who served in Haiti,” the official said. He revealed that in 2013, too, a high powered Court of Inquiry was appointed on a complaint of non-physical sexual encounter by a Sri Lankan peacekeeper with a Haitian prostitute. A Court of Inquiry was sent to Haiti.

Kill street dogs ahead of Vesak ???

 Apr 23, 2017

Local Government and Provincial Councils Minister Faizer Mustapha denied claims that there was a move to kill street dogs ahead of Vesak.

He said that a social media campaign had been launched claiming that street dogs are to be killed.
Activists disturbed by reports of attempts to kill street dogs have urged the public to take photographs of anyone seen rounding up dogs on the street.

Mustapha insisted that the allegation that he was involved in moves to kill stray dogs is an attempt to create racial disharmony as he is a Muslim. The Minister said that on the contrary his Ministry is taking measures to ensure animals are taken care of by law.   

AshWaru Colombo

21 tea pluckers hospitalized after wasp attack

By Binoy Suriyaarachchi-April 23, 2017

A group of tea pluckers in Bogawantalawa area were hospitalized after being attacked by a swarm of wasps, police said.

The wounded including 18 women were admitted to the Bogawantalawa hospital and three persons are still receiving treatment.

The injured persons have been identified as residents of Kusinawattta area in Bogawantalawa, according to police.

Sri Lanka workers threaten massive strikes against proposed oil deal with India

Apr, 23 2017

Colombo: Workers's of Sri Lanka's state-run petroleum firm are set to launch an indefinite strike from Monday against the government's proposed deal with India to jointly operate an oil storage facility at the strategic eastern port town of Trincomalee.

Representational image. Reuters

(CPC) Trade Union Collective workers have threatened to cripple entire transportation sector in the country.

Sri Lanka and India are expected to sign an agreement to jointly invest and develop the Trincomalee Port and establish a petroleum refinery and other industries there.

The workers have three demands which include getting the government to stop granting outright ownership of some 14 World War II oil storage tanks in the eastern port district of Trincomalee.

The Petroleum Joint Union Alliance says it opposes the proposal to transfer operations rights to oil tanks to India since the agreement would benefit the Lanka IOC, Indian Oil's subsidiary, allowing it to expand further and the CPC, which is already in debt, will incur further financial losses.

They also asked the government to shelve plans to build a new oil refinery with Chinese assistance in the southern port of Hambantota and to immediately begin repairing the existing refinery near Colombo.

"We will be striking from tomorrow and stop all fuel distribution in the country," Bandula Saman Kumara a spokesman for the trade unions told reporters today. He said by mid-week the Colombo international airport would face the danger of becoming non-operational due to fuel
sector strike.

At least 73 of the 99 storage tanks in Trincomalee is to be managed under a new equity arrangement between the two countries, Lankan Petroleum Minister Chandima Weerakkody had said earlier.

The union has taken the decision to strike after President Maithripala Sirisena has reportedly turned down a request for a meeting to discuss the issue.

Lankan Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, who will visit India on April 25, had said on Saturday the development of eastern port district of Trincomalee will be discussed during his visit.

Published Date: Apr 23, 2017 04:11 pm | Updated Date: Apr 23, 2017 04:11 pm

What we need to be teaching our children after the Meethotamulla tragedy 

April 23, 2017, 12:00 pm

Last week we went for a movie in Colombo. We hadn’t been to one in quite a long time, months actually and I was seriously shocked to see how the level of cleanliness (amongst other things) had dropped at this theatre. The seats were slashed and there were left over bits of popcorn on the floor in front of our seats even before our movie started. I suppose it is uncommon to see a cinema in such a state since most of our movie theatres have been through recent refurbishments and offer rather good services. The service and quality of this one, however, had gone down dramatically. It is when the movie ended however that I was shocked and thoroughly dismayed. Walking out of the hall, I was simply shocked to see the amount of bottles, boxes, tissues and popcorn dumped on the floor. If it was just a bit near a couple of chairs I could have assumed that it could have been an ‘accident’ (though honestly, if it was an accident, picking it up and putting it in the box would have been the right thing to do!!) I was appalled to see how many of people had actually left their drink bottles and pop corn boxes on the seats (which had then probably fallen on the floor) instead of picking it up and disposing of it properly?

What is saddening is that this took place a very few days after the Meethotamulla Garbage Dump tragedy and I was shocked at how quickly people ‘forget’ or in this instance, how unbothered people are about littering public places and about proper garbage and refuse disposal. While people are calling for the government to talk action about our garbage problems, we have forgotten that we the citizens too have a part to play. The movie that we watched was a children’s movie and it brings to question, what are we teaching our kids when we think it’s alright to just ‘tip’ the left over bit of popcorn onto the floor and leave? Walk around Colombo and you’d find most of our roads littered, drains clogged with milk packets, yogurt cups and the like. I recently went past Attidiya Lake and it was atrociously dirty with plastic bags, bottles and muck. We need to be teaching our children how to take care of the environment and by setting an example, we would be doing our part in keeping the environment clean.

While places like San Francisco are making headway towards zero-waste by 2020, we have a very very long way to go. There are however certain things that we can learn from these kinds of models, implement them at an individual level and teach our children to diligently follow and just by doing that, we would have done our part.

Here are some things that we should be doing:

Eliminate waste properly. Start by having three bins at home to eliminate waste: one for things that can be recycled, another for things that can be composted and the last for things that can neither be recycled nor composted. Clearly mark these and explain to your children which items need to go into which bins so that they can do their bit and not just dump everything in one bin. Things which can go into the recycle bin are aluminium cans, aluminium foil and bake ware, tin cans such as soup cans and fish cans, paper and cardboard, juice and diary cartons, mail, glass bottles, plastics (please make sure that it is cleaned before it is dumped into the bin, as one unclean or half empty bottle in a bale of plastic can spoil the whole load). Kitchen waste should go into another bin and while our local municipalities do pick up kitchen waste from us, consider making your own compost. It would help people in areas where garbage is now being directed to. The lesser refuse you have sending out of your house, the lesser problems it will cause till our government comes up with a long term feasible plan for garbage disposal. Your Mixed Recycling Bin should have the following and you might have to sort them out more carefully and figure out if there are people in your area who can make use of these things and recycle them individually and in some instances there are private institutions that recycle them.

Any glass contaminated with stones, dirt, and food waste

Ceramics, such as dishware, ovenware, and decorative items.

Heat-resistant glass, such as Pyrex.

Mixed colors of broken glass.

Mirror or window glass.

Crystal.

Light bulbs: Find out how to recycle here.

Stop using PET plastic bottles. The heat is unbearable, I know, but we need to make a conscious effort to stop purchasing plastic water bottles. Did you know that PET plastic is the most common material used for single-use bottled beverages, because it is inexpensive, lightweight, unbreakable and easy to recycle. It takes more than 1.5 million barrels of oil to produce a year's supply of water bottles. That's enough oil to fuel 100,000 cars for a year. So the next time you are stepping out of home, fill a glass bottle or a BPA free plastic bottle with water and avoid PET bottles.

The same goes for plastic grocery bags. Since the Meethotamulla tragedy, I’ve made it a point to keep an extra set of cloth grocery bags in the vehicle and another at home which I regularly use. Consider keeping a foldable cloth bag in your handbag that can be used if you suddenly find yourself in a position where you are not carrying a cloth bag when you are shopping.

Get your children to do rough work and such on paper that has one side used. If there are school books with pages from a previous year that can be used for home use – do so.

Teach your children to never litter public roads, places or even at home. If they drop something, teach them that it needs to be picked up and put into the right bin. So whether it is a tissue accidently dropped or the need to dispose of a paper, they need to know that dropping it ‘wherever’ is not acceptable.

Teach your children to reuse. For example: use egg cartons as a paint holder for kids to paint with and teach them that when you do get plastic bags that they can be used as trash bags.

Schools too can implement proper waste disposal and teach their students the importance of taking care of the environment.

These are just few of the things that we can do with keeping our environment clean. There’s so much more that should be done to make sure that we ‘Live Green’ which includes minimizing the use of water, detergent, soap and not wasting electricity. Remember, if adults set a bad example by doing tasks in front of children the wrong way, then of course the children learn to do these tasks the wrong way as well. They don’t know it’s the wrong way, they are just learning. So SET AN EXAMPLE! You might have to do some research on it, but we need to make sure that the environment is safe enough for our children and that tragedies like Meethotamulla do not take place on our watch.

Many politicians too get their Million cuts from garbage dumped

Apr 23, 2017

Meanwhile, Susil Kidelpitiya has viwed not to allow garbage to be dumped in Kolonnawa where he was raised. He said thuggery and force was used to silence the protesters and the issue was never resolved by the government. 

Hence he said all subject ministers should take responsibility for this incident and if they have any self respect they should resign from their posts. He insisted that S.M. Marikkar should resign from his post as the areas party organizer. He further accused the Chairman and all officials of the Solid Waste Management  Authority who have done nothing to address this issue and urged the Urban Commissioner  reveal all fraudulent dealings and corruption that is taking place. In the event that he fails to do so, Kidelpitiya threatened to take legal action against the Commissioner. He pointed out that MP Hirunika Premachandra too had raised the issue of garbage being dumped in Kolonnawa and added that he did not care where the garbage is dumped as long as it is not dumped in Kolonnawa. 

 

Lanka News Web talks with Mr. Kidelpitiya more about these ,  

 

What is the current status of the garbage issue?

 

This issue has been going on for years and the proper management of garbage disposal is a responsibility of the relevant local government bodies. The dumping of garbage has temporarily halted now. As a person living in this area I too am of the view that Colombo’s garbage should not be dumped in Kolonnawa. We need to seek permanent solutions to this issue. I also believe that instead of haggling  with technicalities, the people affected by the tragedy should be compensated in a fair manner. 

 

Sarath Fonseka is now a prominent minister in the government. So why is he not commenting on this issue?

 

Sarath Fonseka is not someone who had any political goals. He is only concerned and greedy for power and money but he does not care two hoots about the people. It is because I eventually understood his true nature that I decided to leave his party. How can someone with no proper policy talk about the garbage issue.

 

Who are the people dealing with the Meethotamulla garbage dump?

 

The problem here is the garbage that is being brought to Meethotamulla from Colombo. We can manage the garbage that is being discarded from the Meethotamulla area. Normally the two companies that bring the Colombo garbage to the Meethotamulla dumping site and these two companies are being paid Rs. 250 million monthly. Many politicians too get their cut from this Rs. 250 million. No one has any desire to resolve this issue they only want to profit from it. Even if they bring in foreign investors they will do so securing profitable deals for them. This is a business deal between the CMC officials and the politicians. 

 

Can you name those responsible for this tragedy?

 

Those responsible for this catastrophe are the CMC, UDA, all Western Province Chief Ministers, Central Environmental Authority, the President and Prime Minister. In fact none of these people can wash their hands off the responsibility of what happened. 

 

There is speculation that the garbage dump collapsed due to the spraying of some chemical, is this true?

 

An enzyme was sprayed to mitigate the stench emanating from the garbage dump. Under the Kotikawatte, Mulleriyawa grama Niladhari area management projects Rs. 5 million was obtained for the setting up of a garbage disposal unit. Of that Rs. 900,000 was spent on spraying this enzyme to get rid of the bad smell. Other than that nothing else was done and the government should conduct an investigation on this matter. 

 

Do you know of any drug business that was connected to the garbage issue?

 

Although we mention drugs and garbage as issues affecting Kolonnawa, there is no direct connection between the two. However both drugs and garbage are issues that plague Kolonnawa. Most politicians of the area had dealings with these drug dealers at some point or the other. They survived by their blessings and both the politicians and drug dealers were in cahoots with each other. Hence all those who claimed to eradicate drugs from this area had no intention of doing so and only hoodwinked the people as they were already in the pockets of these drug dealers.

 

AshWaru Colombo 

Muslim Law has a long and distinguished history in Sri Lanka

2017-04-24

The on-going discussions on amendments to the Muslim Marriage and Divorce Act (MMDA) and the extensive coverage being given by the country’s media to the several view-points expressed, require warm appreciation.  
When I initiated the move for improvements not only to the MMDA of 1951 but also to the Muslim Mosques and Charitable Trusts or Wakfs Act of 1956 way back in 1970, in my capacity as the President of the Law Students’ Muslim Majlis by holding a two- day seminar and establishing the Muslim Law Research Committee, public discussion in the media at that time on Muslim Law was virtually nil. We were encouraged and supported by the highly respected Principal of Sri Lanka Law College the late Mr. R. K. W. Gunasekera in holding the seminar and in following up thereon for two more years.   
Following the two- day seminar and the setting up of the Muslim Law Research Committee (MLRC) a committee was established to recommend amendments to the MMDA, headed by then Registrar- General H. M. Z. Farouque, current Professor of Law at the Monash University and another committee to recommend amendments to the Wakfs Act headed by the late A. M. Ameen, then District Judge.  

 After two years of continual work the two Committees produced two separate reports in 1972, which were submitted to the government. The Mosques Act was amended by Act No. 33 of 1982 incorporating several recommendations of the A. M. Ameen Committee thanks to the dedicated efforts of the then Wakfs Commissioner the late M. I. M. Nalir. Coincidentally the file relating to the Mosques Act was referred to me by the Hon. Attorney-General in my capacity as Senior State Counsel, which enabled me to expedite the amendments, enacted later by Parliament as Act No. 33 of 1982.  
 But nothing was heard from the government of the H. M. Z. Farouque Committee recommendations, which received the scholarly inputs of late M. A. M. Hussain, District Judge and late A. M. Ismail, then City Coroner, Late M. Markhani, Advocate and Editor of the Muslim Marriage and Divorce Law Reports (MMDLR) in addition to the Chairman Farouque. The MLRC report on amendments to the MMDA could be referred to in the (1978) 4 Colombo L. Rev. at page 60. Also for a related publication, please refer to (1972) 4 MMDLR 13.  
Presently there are many interesting points of view and counter points of view in the print and social media that require the earnest attention of the Justice Marsoof Saleem Committee. It would be a good idea for the Committee to invite all those interested in the amendments to spend time and engage with them. For this the Committee needs time, particularly if what happened to the several previous laudable efforts, post-Farouque Committee, does not happen to the present Committee! Patience plus assistance to the Committee and not angry retorts at incorrectly quoted statements of a few, are what is presently required.  

We ought not to forget that Muslim Law in Sri Lanka has a long and distinguished history. It is as long as the history of the Muslims in this country, dating back from the eighth century onwards. According to Tennent, Ceylon 1, page 597, “from Idrisi’s account of the Sinhalese court of the 12th century, it would appear that the Muslims as well as the Christians and Jews were accorded complete freedom of worship and a matter of internal jurisdiction to be governed by their own laws and usages, apart from being actively associated in the royal consultative council.” Dr. H. G. Reissner, Ceylon Historical Journal 111 No. 2 page 141 has stated that ‘in line with their conception that all law was derived from revealed scripture’, these communities must have been governed by their respective legal systems in the ‘whole range of civilian commitments from marriage contracts to commercial obligations’.  
 Rev. Fr. S. G. Perera, History of Ceylon for Schools, Volume 1, 1947, page 9 quoting Chief Justice Sir Alexander Johnston, says that when the Portuguese arrived in 1505, Colombo which was the chief port and the mart of the island’s trade with a largely Muslim population, had a court of justice to settle disputes according to Islamic Law. For a detailed account of the historical sequence of the Muslim Law in Sri Lanka, one must read “Muslims of Sri Lanka, Avenues to Antiquity” edited by Dr. M. A. M. Shukry, Chapter on “Islamic Law in Sri Lanka- An Historical Survey with Particular Reference to Matrimonial Laws” by H. M. Z. Farouque. For a greater appreciation of Islamic jurisprudence by a Sri Lankan jurist, one may delve into the writings and speeches of Justice Dr. C . G. Weeramantry and for historical perspectives, to the writings of Pro. K. M. de Silva, Dr. C. R. de Silva, Dr. Sirima Kiribamune, Dr. Lorna Dewarajah, Dr. Shirani Ponnambalam amongst several others.   

"MMDA is reflective of the enjoyment in community with other members of their group the Muslim culture and the practice of the Islamic religion. Enacted by the post independent Parliament of Sri Lanka in 1951, the MMDA has governed the Muslims of Sri Lanka, in their matrimonial matters, for the past 66 years with great acceptance, notwithstanding shortcomings"

In an earlier article published in the Daily Mirror on November 18, 2016 under the title, “International Treaties protect the Personal Laws of Minorities”(http://www.dailymirror.lk/article/119344.html), reference was made to Article 27 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) which prevents the state from denying the rights of minorities, “…in community with other members of their group, to enjoy their own culture, to profess and practise their own religion or to use their own language.” Reference was also made to the ‘Declaration on the Rights of Persons Belonging to National or Ethnic, Religious and Linguistic Minorities’. MMDA is reflective of the enjoyment in community with other members of their group the Muslim culture and the practice of the Islamic religion. Enacted by the post independent Parliament of Sri Lanka in 1951, the MMDA has governed the Muslims of Sri Lanka, in their matrimonial matters, for the past 66 years with great acceptance, notwithstanding shortcomings. Under these and other international treaties to which Sri Lanka is a state party, the Sri Lankan state is obliged to protect the MMDA and as per Article 1 of the ICCPR “encourage conditions for the promotion of that identity”. Changes to the MMDA must therefore come from within the Muslim community. MMDA requires improvement both from the legal and administrative perspectives. We need to support the Justice Marsoof Saleem Committee with goodwill and adequate time to achieve the objectives of reform with the fresh experiences of the past 66 years. 

The writer could be reached on mm_zuhair@yahoo.com

The Story Of A Societal Purpose

By Mahesan Niranjan –April 23, 2017

Prof. Mahesan Niranjan

We met after a gap of several weeks in the famous Bridgetown pub for our regular drink. My partner, the Sri Lankan Tamil fellow Sivapuranam Thevaram, has been travelling, visiting the Central Asian country of Kazakhstan, a place he has never been before. “My colleague and I were there, teaching an intense course machan (buddy), a whole semester worth of material packed in two weeks,” Thevaram said to me over our first round of Peroni. My friend is from the club of Artificial Intelligentsia, a necessary path of salvation for those who lack the real thing, as I often tease him.

Thevaram knew nothing of Kazakhstan before, other than the packaged media image of a large ex-Soviet Union country whose sole purpose was to serve as the launching pad for Russian satellites — just the same way the United Kingdom serves as the largest aircraft carrier of the United States of America. As he planned his journey, his colleagues at work wished upon him zero probability of getting kidnapped by horse-riding warriors who were direct descendants of the powerful Genghis Khan.

Amazing how rapidly such prior images shatter when you actually visit a place and mix with people there! Back in the Bridgetown pub Thevaram reported having had a lovely time packed with work, friendship, fun and food. In the flight back he read some work by Abai Quananbaiuli, a Kazakh philosopher and poet, acknowledged widely as a reformer and nationalist, from a book his class had presented him earlier that day. Now, Thevaram, having lived through the rise of Sinhala and Tamil nationalism in Sri Lanka, and observing how it manifested into a deadly war, culminating in the massacre of thousands thirty years later, usually has no time for nationalist sentiments. He dismisses them because they are usually built on fiction, glorifying some past about a two thousand year old civilization, or on who might have arrived on the island first.

Abai’s Words, however, had a very different flavour which appealed much to Thevaram. It had paragraph after paragraph of societal self-criticism and reflection: “Where lies the cause of the estrangement amongst the Kazakhs, of their hostility and ill will towards one another? Why are they insincere in their speech, so lazy, and possessed by a lust for power?”

And he writes during times of Russian occupation of his land: “One should learn to read and write Russian. It is the key to spiritual riches and knowledge, the arts and many other treasures. If we wish to avoid the vices of the Russians while adopting their achievements, we should learn their language and study their scholarship and science […]”   Thevaram spent the whole seven hours of flight reading and admiring this fascinating approach.

Nationalism built on reflection than on manufactured myth! The message to study the language of the invading oppressor! Wow!!

“Now has anyone tried that in our context?” he asked himself, knowing full well the answer might be the label “traitor” in early days of our nationalism, and a body found in close proximity to a lamp post during more later stages.

Yet, no scholarly writing can match what you learn by visiting a place and carrying out your own observational social science research.

On the previous evening Thevaram and his colleague were treated to a fantastic dinner at a Georgian restaurant — a long evening of food and discussions which went on till mid night. They then had to go back to their hotel and one of their hosts – Kiliyoparada (not her real name), a young lady of exceptional beauty — accompanied them to make sure they don’t get lost.

Read More

Magnus Carlsen not Mozart of chess

Brilliant virtuosity is not genius

Carlsen routs Anand at the 2013 World Championship in Madras

Carlsen, the world’s third youngest ever Grand Master

by Kumar David-April 22, 2017, 5:44 pm 

Some people’s minds are really weirdly wired; a gift that defies explanation. Ramanujan’s way with numbers bewildered his Cambridge mentors Godfrey Harold Hardy and John Edensor Littlewood, both outstanding mathematicians. The way theorems and theories of numbers, sometimes far ahead of their time, floated into his mind led some to suggest that "The mind of god was speaking to the mind of young Sirinivasa".

Magnus Carlsen not Mozart of chess Brilliant virtuosity is not genius.docx by Thavam Ratna on Scribd

What will France’s election mean for Palestine?

Left-wing insurgent candidate for France’s presidency Jean-Luc Mélenchon says he would back sanctions on Israel. (Pierre-Selim)-Independent centrist Emmanuel Macron says he supports boycotts against French companies that discriminate in hiring, but totally opposes them against Israel. (Mutualité Française )

Marine Le Pen’s Front National brings together a toxic mix of Islamophobia, anti-Semitism and support for Israel. (European Parliament)

Ali Abunimah-19 April 2017

On Sunday, voters in France will choose the two top candidates to face each other in a runoff election on 7 May and become the country’s next president.

The election is being closely watched amid the wave of right-wing, xenophobic populism sweeping a “developed” world that has seen middle class incomes and security decimated as inequality soars to the highest levels in half a century.

For the first time since the founding of the Fifth Republic in 1958, neither of the two main left and right parties is favored to make it into the second round, setting the stage for a realignment that one establishment observer calls “the coming French revolution.”

Instead, the two frontrunners are Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right Front National, and Emmanuel Macron, a former minister under Socialist President François Hollande who is running as a mold-breaking independent “centrist.”

But in a sign of how much in flux things are, polls have shown a recent surge for left-wing, pro-Palestinian candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Mélenchon, who wants to pull France out of NATO, is calling for sanctions on Israel and an end to France’s crackdown on Palestine solidarity activists.

What does all this mean for Palestine?

Macron’s boycott hypocrisy

Last week Macron gave an interview to Beur FM, a radio station that serves the large French community of North African ancestry.

He displayed incoherence and hostility to the movement for justice in Palestine.

Macron was forceful on the question of companies in France that racially discriminate against jobseekers. 

He promised that the government would publish the names of companies found to practice employment discrimination, explicitly so that the public could impose – and he used the word – boycotts to hold them accountable.

Minutes later, Macron was asked about the landmark UN report that found that Israel practices apartheid against the entire Palestinian people. He was also asked about Israel’s new law barring entry to supporters of the boycott, divestment and sanctions (BDS) movement for Palestinian rights.

He restated the French political establishment’s standard talking points opposing Israeli settlements and supporting a two-state solution and vowed to press on with France’s harsh repression of defenders of Palestinian human rights.

“The French state condemns BDS and all boycotts,” Macron said. “I must be clear that this will continue if I am elected president.”

For Macron it is perfectly fine to encourage a boycott in France of French companies, but illegitimate to boycott a foreign state that practices apartheid among countless other violations.

Macron’s opposition to the grassroots campaign for Palestinian freedom, equality and justice reflects an establishment position that is facing a serious legal challenge. This week, the European Court of Human Rights sent questions to the French government seeking explanations of its policies of prosecuting activists.

This is part of an appeal by a dozen French activists convicted of “inciting hatred” for peacefully urging supermarket shoppers not to purchase Israeli goods. The activists view their conviction as a violation of their freedom of expression.

Their position is bolstered even by the European Union, which last year recognized that advocating for boycotts that aim to hold Israel accountable for its violations of Palestinian rights is a fundamental democratic right across the 28-nation bloc.

Such glaring hypocrisy as Macron’s hardly heralds a new day in French politics or any change in the country’s pro-Israel policies.

Front National: anti-Semitism, Islamophobia, support for Israel

Marine Le Pen has spent years trying to detoxify the Front National, founded in 1972 by her notoriously anti-Semitic and estranged father Jean-Marie Le Pen.

Part of the strategy has been to deflect the party faithful’s traditional, but taboo, anti-Semitism into an Islamophobia that is ever more acceptable to mainstream French society.

But her recent comments denying the French state’s responsibility and complicity for the deportation of thousands of the country’s Jews to Nazi death camps served as a reminder of the reality that lurks behind the rebranding.

Unable to shake its well-earned reputation for anti-Semitism, the Front National has lately sought to silence doubts and criticisms by cozying up to Israel.

Aligning herself with mainstream political leaders, Le Pen has previously slammed the BDS movement in an effort to win favor with France’s Israel lobby.

In January, Nicolas Bay, the Front National’s secretary-general, visited Israel. Although the Israeli government officially boycotts the party, Bay secured meetings with senior officials, according to the Tel Aviv newspaper Haaretz.

In an effort to build bridges, Bay likened his party’s anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim platform to Israel’s policies. According to Haaretz, Bay’s message was that the Front National “is neither anti-Semitic nor racist, but merely wants to ensure the country’s security and preserve its identity, just like Israel or the Trump administration in America.”

This is reminiscent of US neo-Nazi leader Richard Spencer, who has described his vision of an Aryan homeland in part of North America as a form of “white Zionism.”

The Front National now even holds itself out as a protector of France’s Jews. But few are buying it.

“By saying they will protect the Jews against anti-Semitism, people understand that they mean they will be tough with the Muslims,” Jonathan Arfi, vice president of CRIF, France’s main Jewish communal organization and pro-Israel lobby group, told The New York Times this month. “Everything is between the lines.”

However Le Pen does at the ballot box, the prognosis is clear: she will continue to push the far-right themes promoted in Trump’s America – a toxic combination of racism, Islamophobia, anti-Semitism and extreme support and admiration for Israel.

Mélenchon calls for sanctions

If there is any bright spot for Palestine in France’s election, it is the rise of the insurgent left-wing candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Polls show him at around 20 percent, almost doubling his support over the last month. This puts him just behind Macron and Le Pen who are each hovering in the low twenties.

If Mélenchon manages to get into the runoff, he will bring with him a set of policies which – at least on paper – deviate from the French establishment’s solid pro-Israel consensus.

Like the others, Mélenchon backs the two-state solution, but pledges to immediately recognize Palestine as a state.

In a February letter to Palestine solidarity groups setting out his policies, Mélenchon’s campaign says he is ready to back sanctions against Israel over its settlements and the ongoing blockade of Gaza. This could include, he says, suspending the EU-Israel trade agreement.

And of great significance for the Palestine solidarity movement, he pledges to cancel the so-called Circulaire Alliot-Marie, the 2010 justice ministry memorandum instructing prosecutors to crack down on BDS activists.

François Fillon, the scandal-plagued candidate of the traditional right-wing Republicains is also at about 20 percent, while the candidate of President Hollande’s Socialist Party, Benoît Hamon, languishes at about 7.5 percent.

Given the upset results in last year’s US election and the UK’s Brexit referendum, it would be foolish to bet on the outcome in France with polls this close.

But Mélenchon’s surge shows that in France there is a strong progressive base ready to back Palestinian rights and hold Israel accountable. No matter what the result of the election, that is a solid foundation on which activists can continue to build.