Peace for the World

Peace for the World
First democratic leader of Justice the Godfather of the Sri Lankan Tamil Struggle: Honourable Samuel James Veluppillai Chelvanayakam

Sunday, March 12, 2017

Thailand: Report details human rights violations against defenders



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Sutharee Wannasiri, Human Rights Specialist with Fortify Rights (right), Sunai Phasuk, Senior Researcher, Human Rights Watch, Asia Division (middle), and Angkhana Neelapaijit, National Human Rights Commissioner (left). Pic: Caleb Quinley

By  | 
THAILAND does not have a particularly impressive human rights record.

The country continues to sustain controversies and global outrage for corruption, human trafficking, censorship, restrictions of freedom of expression, and government linked abuse. 

While the nation has deep-rooted and intricate social and political issues, human rights groups admit that the country is making progress. Although Thailand has taken steps in the right direction, there are still major concerns with violations that clearly don’t meet international human rights standards.

“Human rights are a work in progress in Thailand,” said Amy Smith, Executive Director of Fortify Rights. “Now is the time for Thailand to remedy past violations and fortify the future of human rights in the country.”

According to a report new released Wednesday by Fortify Rights titled A Work In Progress: Thailand’s Compliance with the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, Thai authorities have yet to properly fulfill their international legal obligations to protect civil and political rights.


Conducted from 2014 to 2017, the report illustrates disturbing continuances of violations and mistreatments under the NCPO (ruling junta). Investigation conducted by Fortify Rights details in-depth testimony from eyewitnesses and survivors of abuse.

The report documents killings with impunity, arbitrary detentions, violations of free speech and assembly, violations against refugees, vast amounts of human trafficking, and unchecked attacks on human rights defenders.

During a panel discussion Wednesday, in which the report was presented; Angkhana Neelaphaijit, a National Human Rights Commissioner and wife of disappeared human rights lawyer Somchai Neelaphaijit, described the importance of protecting human rights defenders. She also highlighted the potential dangers of Thailand’s legislative Article 44, a law that has been criticised as broad, and dangerously far reaching.

“Protecting human rights defenders is our key strategy,” says Neelaphaijit. “Article 44 has been used in others areas with violations of accountability, and transparency”.

Additionally, the report indicates that there have been physical attacks on human rights defenders by unknown perpetrators. Unfortunately, threats to human rights defenders are not rhetorical, or used simply as scare tactics. Human rights defenders have been attacked physically for doing their job. In regional areas especially, threats and attacks are much more likely to occur.

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#Somchai disappearance 13 years ago: UN #humanrights office continues to seek answers from #Thailand authorities.  http://ow.ly/VZWh309NTzQ
In the remote northeastern province of Loei, environmental activists for the Khon Rak Ban Kerd Group (KRBKG) and the Southern Peasants Federation of Thailand (SPFT), have experienced both violent attacks, and criminal charges.

“Human rights defenders play a critical role in rights-respecting societies,” said Amy Smith. “Rights defenders should be protected and championed, not harassed and imprisoned.”

Another vital point reviewed in the report demonstrates collusion between government entities and human-trafficking syndicates. Thai officials have been found increasingly complicit in human trafficking situations, and according to survivor testimonies collected by Fortify Rights, the scope of trafficking of Rohingya and Bangladesh nationals is much larger than originally estimated.

Sutharee Wannasiri, a human rights specialist with Fortify Rights described the risks with new amendments to Thailand’s Computer Crime Act during the session on Wednesday. She also expressed alarm with the state of detention centers that currently house hundreds of Rohingya survivors of human trafficking and refugees, survivors that are currently being held indefinitely.


As standards may indeed be improving in Thailand in some areas, it is pivotal to maintain accountability in others where much work is still vitally needed.

“Fortify Rights is concerned with the indefinite detention of Rohingya refugees, along with the deplorable conditions inside these immigration detention centers,” says Wannasiri. “We urge Thailand to end indefinite detention of refugees, and improve conditions inside the detention facilities to meet with international standards.”

More Mideast Madness as Trump Prepares to March

The US Navy is now threatening to impose a naval blockade on war-torn Yemen, another joint US-Saudi warfare enterprise that has gone terribly wrong.


by Eric S. Margolis-
( march 12, 2017, New York City, Sri Lanka Guardian) We are now moving rapidly into stage II of Levantine Madness as the US boosts its intervention in the war-torn Mideast.
Five thousand US troops are back in Iraq to bolster the shattered nation’s puppet regime that is propped up by American bayonets. New Iraqi military formations have been formed, totally equipped with modern US M1 Abrams tanks, Humvees, and fleets of trucks. More US forces are on the way.
These US-financed Iraqi units are euphemistically called ‘anti-terrorism forces’ and are supervised by US officers. In fact, what we see is the old British Imperial Raj formula of white officers commanding native mercenary troops.
These Iraqi units are now assaulting ISIS-held Mosul, Iraq’s second city, and smaller towns. Most of America’s Iraqi ‘sepoys’ (as native troops in the British Indian Raj were known) are Shia bitterly opposed to the nation’s minority Sunnis. After its 2003 invasion of Iraq, the US encouraged animosity between Shia and Sunni as a way of breaking resistance to foreign occupation – ‘divide et impera’ as the Romans used to say.
Interestingly, the backbone of ISIS leadership is made up of senior officers of Saddam Hussein’s old Iraqi army. The ‘Mother of All Battles’ continues, as President Saddam predicted shortly before he was lynched.
Meanwhile, thousands of US troops and Special Forces are now also engaged in Syria though just whom they are battling remains confused. Syria has become a mad house of warring factions backed by outside powers – a sort of modern version of Germany’s dreadful 30 Year’s War of the 1600’s.
The overall US commander for the Mideast, Gen. Joseph Votel, just asked the Trump administration for a large number of new American troops, saying he lacks the military resources to subdue and pacify the Levant. Votel, who is pretty sharp and a star of the US Army’s Special Operations ‘mafia,’ also just warned that India and Pakistan risked triggering a nuclear war, a grave danger this writer has been worrying about for years.
Meanwhile, the crazy-quilt war in Syria that was started by the Obama administration and the Saudis has become unmanageable. Syrian government forces are being strongly backed by Russia and slowly driving back anti-regime forces backed by the US, Saudi Arabia, France and, ever so quietly, Israel. ISIS and what’s left of al-Qaida are battling the Damascus government, sometimes discreetly aided by the western powers.
America’s main ally in Iraq and Syria are Kurdish militias of the PYD party, an affiliate of the older PKK which has sought an independent Kurdish state for decades. I covered the long, bloody war between the Turkish armed forces and the PKK in Eastern Anatolia during the mid-1990’s. Turkey is desperately concerned that formation of even a mini-Kurdish state in northern Syria or Iraq will eventually lead to creation of a large Kurdish state in Turkey. Eighteen percent of Turks are ethnic Kurds. The mighty Turkish Army will never allow this to happen.
The Turks just watched the US break up Sudan, creating the new state of South Sudan, which has turned into a bloody disaster. Could Turkey be next? Many Turks suspect the US was behind the recent coup attempted against Turkey’s leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Washington would like a more obedient leader in Ankara – or see the army generals back in power.
Turkey calls the Kurdish PYD ‘terrorists.’ The US calls them comrades in arms and finances them. Clashes between the Turks and PYD appear very likely. PYD’s blood brothers, the PKK, continue to wage bombing attacks across Turkey along with Islamic State. US forces in the region could easily be drawn into this murky fracas.
Meanwhile, ISIS appears increasingly vulnerable. It has lost almost half of Mosul, the one big city it holds. The ISIS ‘capital,’ Raqqa, will soon be overrun by US-led Iraqi forces and Kurds. Raqqa is a two-by nothing, one-camel town of no military value whatsoever. There is no way that 3,000 or so ISIS hooligans with only small arms could hold off a serious attack by regular troops and massed airpower, including B-52 and B-1 heavy bombers.
Why Raqqa was not taken a year ago or more remains one of the war’s major mysteries. As I’ve previously written, I suspect that the US and Saudi Arabia originally helped create and arm ISIS to be used against Syria’s government and Afghanistan’s Taliban movement. The US has long pretended to fight ISIS but has barely done so in reality.
Maybe this time it will be for real. ISIS has largely slipped out of the control of its western handlers, a bunch of 20-something wildmen whose main goal is revenge for attacks on Muslim targets. Without modern logistics, heavy weapons and trained officers the idea that ISIS could stand up to any western forces is a joke. It’s only when ISIS confronts ramshackle Arab forces that it has any clout. And that’s because mostly Iraqi Arab forces have no loyalty to their governments. They are merely poorly paid mercenaries.
As if this witch’s brew was not sufficiently toxic, US and Russian aircraft and Special Forces are brushing up against one another in Syria. At the same time, the US Navy in the nearby Persian Gulf is provoking the Iranians to please President Donald Trump who seems determined to have war with Iran.
The US Navy is now threatening to impose a naval blockade on war-torn Yemen, another joint US-Saudi warfare enterprise that has gone terribly wrong.
History shows it’s also easy to lie, flag-wave and bluster into war but awfully hard to get out. Trump, whose main information sources appears to be Fox fake TV news, does yet seem to understand this verity. He should have a good look at Afghanistan, America’s longest war, now in its 16th year of stalemate. The Pentagon, heedless that Afghanistan is known as ‘the Graveyard of Empires,’ wants more troops.

Trump’s War on the Truth Tellers


Last week, White House press secretary Sean Spicer warned that the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office couldn't be trusted to come up with accurate numbers about the costs and coverage of the Republicans' replacement for the Affordable Care Act. (Photo: CNN)

by
Sunday, March 12, 2017

Trump and his White House don’t argue on the merits. They attack the credibility of the institutions that come up with facts and arguments they don’t like. 

No automatic alt text available.They even do it preemptively. Last week, White House press secretary Sean Spicer warned that the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office couldn’t be trusted to come up with accurate numbers about the costs and coverage of the Republicans' replacement for the Affordable Care Act.

“If you’re looking at the CBO for accuracy, you’re looking in the wrong place,” he said.
So what’s the right place? The Oval Office? 

Bear in mind the director of the CBO is a Republican economist and former George W. Bush administration official who was chosen for his position by the Republican Congress in 2015. 

No matter. The White House is worried about what the CBO will say about Trumpcare, so it throws the CBO under the bus before the bus arrives.

Trump couldn’t care less about the long-term consequences, but the rest of us should. For more than four decades the U.S. budget process has depended on the CBO’s analyses and forecasts. The office has gained a reputation for honesty and reliability under both Republican and Democratic appointees. Now, it’s tainted. 
This has been Trump’s MO since he first met a fact he didn’t like. 

When candidate Trump didn’t like the positive employment numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showing the economy improving under the Obama administration, what did he do? He called the official unemployment rate “such a phony number,” “one of the biggest hoaxes in American modern politics” and “the biggest joke there is.”
It’s possible to take issue with the ways the Bureau of Labor Statistics measures unemployment, but why undermine public trust in the Bureau itself?

Of course, when February’s job numbers turned out rosy, Trump’s White House embraced the monthly employment report. But the damage has been done. The BLS looks political.  

Spicer tries to wrap Trump’s institutional attacks in populist mumbo-jumbo: “I think [Trump] addressed that in his inaugural speech when he talked about shifting power outside of Washington D.C. back to the American people because for too long it’s been about stats … and it’s been about, what number are we looking at as opposed to what face are we looking at?”

Rubbish. The only way we can understand the true dimensions of the problems real people face is with data about these problems, from sources the public trusts. But if the credibility of those sources is repeatedly called into question by the president of the United States, there’s no shared truth. 

When Trump disagreed with judicial findings about his original travel ban, he didn’t offer any reasons or analyses. Instead, he called the judge who issued the stay a “so-called judge” and attacked the appellate judges who upheld it as “so political” they weren’t “able to read a statement and do what’s right.” 

When he blamed the intelligence agencies for the downfall of his first national security advisor, he didn’t spell out why. He just attacked them, issuing disparaging tweets with “intelligence” in quotation marks.

When he dislikes press reports, Trump doesn’t try to correct them. He assails the press as “the enemy of the American people,” “dishonest,” purveyors of “fake news,” and “the opposition party,” and questions their motives (they “have their own agenda, and it’s not your agenda, and it’s not the country’s agenda”

When polls show that he has a low approval rating, he doesn’t say he expects the rating to improve. He attacks the entire polling industry, asserting “any negative polls are fake news.”

When scientists come up with conclusion he disagrees with, he doesn’t offer other credible sources of scientific data. He attacks science.

Trump thinks climate change is a hoax. His new head of the Environmental Protection Agency asserted last week that climate change isn’t caused by human activity.

What does the Trump administration do to prove the point? Nothing. Instead, it tells EPA staffers to remove pages from the EPA’s website concerning climate change, and threatens to review all the agency’s data and publications, and cuts the budgets of all scientific research in government.

Trump’s big lies are bad enough because they subvert the truth and sow confusion. But Trump’s attacks on the institutions we rely on as sources of the truth are even more dangerous, because hey make it harder for the public to believe anything. 
In a democracy, the truth is a common good. Trump is actively destroying the truth-telling institutions our democracy depends on.  

Elizabeth Warren says Trump pushed out prosecutors to install 'cronies'

Progressive senator attacks president over firing of Preet Bharara, while former US attorney writes cryptic tweet alluding to past corruption inquiry
 Elizabeth Warren, center, criticized the Trump administration following the firing of Preet Bharara. Photograph: Elise Amendola/AP

-Sunday 12 March 2017

The progressive senator Elizabeth Warren accused Donald Trump of firing a prominent prosecutor to install “cronies” , warning on Sunday of “a massive fight” in the Senate over his picks for new US attorneys.

On Saturday, Trump fired Preet Bharara, the US attorney of the southern district of Manhattan, where the prosecutor had pursued corruption cases against members of both the Republican and Democratic parties. In November, Bharara met with Trump and his nominee for attorney general, Jeff Sessions, and said he had “agreed to stay on” after conversations with both.

But on Friday afternoon, Sessions abruptly ordered 46 prosecutors, nearly all appointees of Barack Obama, to resign “effective immediately”. Bharara refused to resign and was fired, saying in a brief public statement: “One hallmark of justice is absolute independence, and that was my touchstone every day that I served.”

On Sunday, Bharara wrote a message, tantalizing in its apparent implications but lacking any detail, on the former US attorney’s newly active personal Twitter account. “By the way, now I know what the Moreland Commission must have felt like.”

The Moreland Committee was created to investigate corruption in New York state government but was abruptly shut down by governor Andrew Cuomo in 2014. At the time of his dismissal, Bharara was overseeing separate corruption investigations into the staffs of Cuomo and New York mayor Bill de Blasio.

New presidents typically replace the appointees named by their predecessors, but not since 1993 has a new administration done so in such a rapid, sweeping fashion. And late Saturday, an official speaking on condition of anonymity told the Associated Press that the sudden dismissal of Bharara was preceded by an unusual phone call from the White House to the prosecutor’s office.

On Thursday, the president’s secretary called Bharara, who declined to take the call because the justice department has strict rules about communications between presidents and prosecutors. Bharara told Trump’s secretary he could not speak directly with the president.

The White House has declined to comment on why Trump fired Bharara after asking him to continue in his role. Warren seized on this ambiguity, tweeting on Sunday that Trump “talked a big game about getting corruption out of gov[ernment]. But he wants a bunch of tame prosecutors who won’t investigate him.”

“Preet Bharara had authority over Trump Tower,” Warren wrote, noting the US attorney’s jurisdiction over Manhattan, the Bronx and Westchester, New York. Trump “called him directly, breaching protocol”, Warren continued. “24 [hours] later he was asked to resign.”

“More GOP & Dems respect Preet Bharara as a fearless prosecutor who stands up to both parties & Wall Street. I guess that’s why Trump fired him,” she said, before drawing a comparison to Trump’s decision to fire Sally Yates. The president fired Yates, who was acting attorney general in the first weeks of his administration, after she refused to defend his executive order limiting travel, and after she warned Trump that his national security adviser had misled the White House about conversations with Russia’s ambassador.


By the way, now I know what the Moreland Commission must have felt like.

Warren said the president “wants people like AG Sessions, a loyalist who lied to the Senate about meeting with the Russians”, alluding to Session’s failure, under oath, to disclose his own conversations with the ambassador.

“You can’t fire the rule of law,” Warren wrote. “You can’t shut down ongoing investigations by career prosecutors.”

“The Senate confirms US Attorneys. And you’re not replacing real prosecutors with cronies [with]out a massive fight,” she added.

Despite Warren’s threats, she and fellow Democrats have little hope of ceating a major Senate battle over US attorney nominations. The party in control of the Senate needs only a simple majority to approve nominations, and few Republicans have broken ranks on any of the president’s cabinet picks.

Bharara’s office had also opened an investigation into Fox News over a possible failure to inform shareholders of multimillion-dollar settlements with female employees who had accused Roger Ailes, the former CEO, of sexual harassment.

Over his seven years as US attorney for the southern district, Bharara prosecuted high-profile cases on financial hacking and insider trading and against JPMorgan Chase, Toyota and the billionaire investor Steven Cohen, earning the prosecutor the nickname “the sheriff of Wall Street”.

Welcome to the Post-Human Rights World

Geopolitical realignments and the rise of populist nationalism have unleashed a global backlash against human rights.
Welcome to the Post-Human Rights World

No automatic alt text available.BY SEBASTIAN STRANGIO-MARCH 7, 2017

Less than two months in, President Donald Trump is already shaping up as a disaster for human rights. From his immigration ban to his support for torture, Trump has jettisoned what has long been, in theory if not always in practice, a bipartisan American commitment: the promotion of democratic values and human rights abroad.

Worse is probably set to come. Trump has lavished praise on autocrats and expressed disdain for international institutions. He described Egyptian strongman Abdel Fattah al-Sisi as a “fantastic guy” and brushed off reports of repression by the likes of Russia’s Vladi­mir Putin, Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan. As Trump put it in his bitter inauguration address, “It is the right of all nations to put their own interests first. We do not seek to impose our way of life on anyone.” Kenneth Roth, the executive director of Human Rights Watch, has written that Trump’s election has brought the world to “the verge of darkness” and threatens to “reverse the accomplishments of the modern human rights movement.”

But this threat is not new. In fact, the rise of Trump has only underlined the existential challenges already facing the global rights project. Over the past decade, the international order has seen a structural shift in the direction of assertive new powers, including Xi Jinping’s China and Putin’s Russia, that have openly challenged rights norms while at the same time crushing dissent in contested territories like Chechnya and Tibet. These rising powers have not only clamped down on dissent at home; they have also given cover to rights-abusing governments from Manila to Damascus. Dictators facing Western criticism can now turn to the likes of China for political backing and “no-strings” financial and diplomatic support.
This trend has been strengthened by the Western nationalist-populist revolt that has targeted human rights institutions and the global economic system in which they are embedded. With populism sweeping the world and new superpowers in the ascendant, post-Westphalian visions of a shared global order are giving way to an era of resurgent sovereignty. Unchecked globalization and liberal internationalism are giving way to a post-human rights world.

All this amounts to an existential challenge to the global human rights norms that have proliferated since the end of World War II. In that time, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, adopted in 1948, has been supplemented by a raft of treaties and conventions guaranteeing civil and political rights, social and economic rights, and the rights of refugees, women, and children. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War served to further entrench human rights within the international system. Despite the world’s failure to prevent mass slaughter in places like Rwanda and Bosnia, the 1990s would see the emergence of a global human rights imperium: a cross-border, transnational realm anchored in global bodies like the U.N. and the European Union and supervised by international nongovernmental organizations and a new class of professional activists and international legal experts.

The professionalization of human rights was paralleled by the advance of international criminal justice. The decade saw the creation of ad hoc tribunals for Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia and the signing in 1998 of the Rome Statute that created the International Criminal Court — an achievement that then-U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan hailed as a “giant step forward in the march towards universal human rights and the rule of law.” On paper, citizens in most countries now enjoy around 400 distinct rights. As Michael Ignatieff wrote in 2007, human rights have become nothing short of “the dominant language of the public good around the globe.”

Crucially, this legal and normative expansion was underpinned by an unprecedented period of growth and economic integration in which national borders appeared to disappear and the world shrink under the influence of globalization and technological advance. Like the economic system in which it was embedded, the global human rights project attained a sheen of inevitability; it became, alongside democratic politics and free market capitalism, part of the triumphant neoliberal package that Francis Fukuyama identified in 1989 as “the end point of mankind’s ideological evolution.” In 2013, one of America’s foremost experts on international law, Peter J. Spiro, predicted that legal advances and economic globalization had brought on “sovereigntism’s twilight.” Fatou Bensouda, the current chief prosecutor of the ICC, has argued similarly that the creation of the court inaugurated a new era of post-Westphalian politics in which rulers would now be held accountable for serious abuses committed against their own people. (So far, no sitting government leader has.)

But in 2017, at a time of increasing instability, in which the promised fruits of globalization have failed for many to materialize, these old certainties have collapsed. In the current “age of anger,” as Pankaj Mishra has termed it, human rights have become both a direct target of surging right-wing populism and the collateral damage of its broader attack on globalization, international institutions, and “unaccountable” global elites.

The outlines of this new world can be seen from Europe and the Middle East to Central Asia and the Pacific. Governments routinely ignore their obligations under global human rights treaties with little fear of meaningful sanction. For six years, grave atrocities in Syria have gone unanswered, despite the legal innovations of the “responsibility to protect” doctrine. Meanwhile, many European governments are reluctant to honor their legal obligations to offer asylum to the hundreds of thousands of people fleeing its brutal civil war.

To be sure, not all of these developments are new; international rights treaties have always represented an aspirational baseline to which many nations have fallen short. But the human rights age was one in which the world, for all its shortfalls, seemed to be trending in the direction of more adherence, rather than less. It was a time in which human rights advocates and supportive leaders spoke confidently of standing on the “right side of history” and even the world’s autocrats were forced to pay lip service to the idea of rights.

If the human rights age was one in which the contours of history were clear, today it is no longer obvious that history has any such grand design. According to the latest Freedom in the World report, released in January by Freedom House, 2016 marked the 11th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. It was also a year in which 67 countries suffered net declines in political freedoms and civil liberties. Keystone international institutions are also under siege. In October, three African states — South Africa, Burundi, and Gambia — announced their withdrawal from the ICC, perhaps the crowning achievement of the human rights age. (Gambia has since reversed its decision, following the January resignation of autocratic President Yahya Jammeh.) Angry that the ICC unfairly targets African defendants, leaders on the continent are now mulling a collective withdrawal from the court.

African criticism reflects governments’ increasing confidence in rejecting human rights as “Western” values and painting any local organization advocating these principles as a pawn of external forces. China and India have both introduced restrictive new laws that constrain the work of foreign NGOs and local groups that receive foreign funding, including organizations advocating human rights. In Russia, a “foreign agent law” passed in 2012 has been used to tightly restrict the operation of human rights NGOs and paint any criticism of government policies as disloyal, foreign-sponsored, and “un-Russian.”

In the West, too, support for human rights is wavering. In his successful campaign in favor of “Brexit,” Nigel Farage, then-leader of the UK Independence Party, attacked the European Convention on Human Rights, claiming that it had compromised British security by preventing London from barring the return of British Islamic State fighters from the Middle East. During the U.S. election campaign, Donald Trump demonized minorities, advocated torture, expressed admiration for dictators — and still won the White House. Meanwhile, a recent report suggests that Western support for international legal institutions like the ICC is fickle, lasting only “as long as it targets other problems in other countries.”

In the post-human rights world, global rights norms and institutions will continue to exist but only in an increasingly ineffective form. This will be an era of renewed superpower competition, in what Robert Kaplan has described as a “more crowded, nervous, anxious world.” The post-human rights world will not be devoid of grassroots political struggles, however. On the contrary, these could well intensify as governments tighten the space for dissenting visions and opinions. Indeed, the wave of domestic opposition to Trump’s policies is an early sign that political activism may be entering a period of renewed power and relevance.

What, then, is to be done? As many human rights activists have alreadyacknowledged, fresh approaches are required. In December, RightsStart, a new human rights consultancy hub, launched itself by suggesting five strategies that international rights NGOs can use to adapt to the “existential crisis” of the current moment. (Full disclosure: I have previously worked with one of its founders.) Among them was the need for these groups to “communicate more effectively” the importance of human rights and use international advocacy more often as a platform for local voices. Philip Alston, a human rights veteran and law professor at New York University, has argued that the human rights movement will also have to confront the fact that it has never offered a satisfactory solution to the key driver of the current populist surge: global economic inequality.

In a broader sense, the global human rights project will have to shed its pretensions of historical inevitability and get down to the business of making its case to ordinary people. With authoritarian politics on the rise, now is the time to re-engage in politics and to adopt more pragmatic and flexible tactics for the advancement of human betterment. Global legal advocacy will continue to be important, but efforts should predominantly be directed downward, to national courts and legislatures. It is here that right-wing populism has won its shattering victories. It is here, too, that the coming struggle against Trumpism and its avatars will ultimately be lost or won.

Photo credit: CHIP SOMODEVILLA/Getty Images

The Trump administration and House Speaker Paul D. Ryan are defending the Republican bill to supplant the Affordable Care Act, while facing criticism from Democrats and fellow GOP lawmakers. (Bastien Inzaurralde/The Washington Post)

 
The Trump administration and House Speaker Paul D. Ryan are defending the Republican bill to supplant the Affordable Care Act, while facing criticism from Democrats and fellow GOP lawmakers. (Bastien Inzaurralde/The Washington Post)

Depending on which outside analyst you ask, between 6 million and 15 million people would probably lose insurance coverage if the Republican alternative to the Affordable Care Act passes Congress and is signed into law.

Or, actually, let’s revise that. Depending on whom you ask in Republican leadership, the real number is more like zero — or, perhaps, negative: People will gain coverage under the proposal.

As part of the Republican push for the American Health Care Act, administration officials joined the Sunday political talk shows to offer their thoughts about the future of coverage. With analysis of the American Health Care Act from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office looming, the officials’ predictions about the effects of the bill were far rosier than the analysis offered by the Brookings Institution (15 million losing coverage over 10 years) or Standard & Poor’s (6 million to 10 million by 2024).

Here’s what they said.


Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price: Coverage will increase. Appearing on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Price offered his vision for what success of the bill looked like.


HHS Secretary Tom Price says the new healthcare bill aims to increase the number of people covered. 
“Success, it’s important to look at that,” he said. “It means more people covered than are covered right now at an average cost that is less. I believe that we can firmly do that with the plan that we’ve laid out there.”
Last year, Price, then a member of the House, offered an Affordable Care Act replacement bill that was vetoed by President Barack Obama. An analysis of that bill from the Congressional Budget Office figured that 18 million peoplewould lose coverage under that plan.
Price also told host Chuck Todd that “nobody will be worse off financially” under the proposal.
Gary Cohn, chief economic adviser to President Trump: Coverage will be maintained. On “Fox News Sunday,” Cohn was pressed by host Chris Wallace to explain whether the administration would continue to back the American Health Care Act if the Congressional Budget Office also were to predict that millions would lose coverage. He played Cohn a clip from 2015 of Trump on “60 Minutes.”
“I am going to take care of everybody,” Trump said then. “I don’t care if it costs me votes or not. Everybody’s going to be taken care of much better than they’re taken care of now.” He repeated a similar claim shortly before his inauguration, telling The Washington Post that “[w]e’re going to have insurance for everybody. There was a philosophy in some circles that if you can’t pay for it, you don’t get it. That’s not going to happen with us.”
“Twenty million people gained coverage, have health insurance coverage now who didn’t have it before Obamacare. Are some of them going to lose coverage,” Wallace asked, “because, one, you’re going to end over a period of years the Medicaid expansion and, two, the tax credits are not going to provide as much help as the subsidies did to people who can’t afford coverage.”
“Chris, we don’t think so,” Cohn replied. “If you’re on Medicaid, you’re going to stay on Medicaid.”
“But not the expanded Medicaid,” Wallace replied.
“If you’re on Medicaid, you’re going to stay. The expansion is not going to change. There is a roll-off period, there is a period of transition, and we’re very confident that the period of transition is going to work,” Cohn said.

House Speaker Paul D. Ryan: People will make their own choices. Ryan appeared on CBS’s “Face the Nation” with John Dickerson. After Ryan (R-Wis.) offered his prediction that the Congressional Budget Office would estimate that coverage would drop, Dickerson asked how many people the speaker thought might lose coverage.
Tom Cotton: GOP's current Obamacare repeal bill would put GOP House majority in jeopardy pic.twitter.com/VPc40sN0to
Q: How many will lose coverage under GOP health plan?

Paul Ryan: “I can't answer that question. It's up to people.”




“I can’t answer that question. It’s up to people,” he said. “Here’s the premise of your question. Are you going to stop mandating people buy health insurance? People are going to do what they want to do with their lives because we believe in individual freedom in this country.”

“It’s not our job to make people do something that they don’t want to do,” he added later. “It is our job to have a system where people can get universal access to affordable coverage if they choose to do so or not.”
It’s worth noting that this contrasts with what the official website for the Republican repeal effort states. Linked prominently from Ryan’s official House website, the public American Health Care Act page explicitly states in a FAQ that millions won’t lose coverage.