Peace for the World

Peace for the World
First democratic leader of Justice the Godfather of the Sri Lankan Tamil Struggle: Honourable Samuel James Veluppillai Chelvanayakam

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

Haloluwa incident is most portentous and a dangerous conspiracy -CCTV camera photos confirm

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(Lanka-e-News -21.Feb.2017, 11.45PM) Lanka e news  reported that a  group wearing uniforms and resembling police officers arrived in a Truck lorry ( earlier it was  reported the  vehicle was a Dimo Batta Van .It  is  hereby amended) on the 18 th  at the ancestral  house of Thusitha Haloluwa , chairman Fertilizer corporation  cum  co ordinating secretary to the foreign minister , and inquired threateningly ,  ‘who is Haloluwa ‘ and frightened the householders including the aged mother while also inquiring from the neighborhood ‘who is this Hololuwa?’  Lanka e news always first with the news and best with the views is now in possession of the photos captured  by the CCTV camera pertaining to these conspiratorial and deadly  activities which is full of dangerous portents  for the whole country. 
According to those photographs , two individuals wearing uniforms similar to those of the police had arrived at the residence of Haloluwa.  The police number 58913 of one individual is visible but that of the other individual is not clear.
During the period when there exists no emergency regulations , if a police team is to conduct a search of a house or is looking for an individual , there are  laws to be abided by …. 
* Prior to arrival for the search the police of the area of search shall be informed .
* They must prove their identity to the householders.
* The householders should be informed  who they are looking for , and why. ( The second and third reasons must be notified  in writing)
* If it is a house search , there must be a court order giving permission.
The group that arrived at Haloluwa’s house had not followed this legal procedure . Then , are these individuals true police officers or Hora police ? This is a most portentous sign , according to Haloluwa. The latter who had lodged a complaint was told even  on the 20th by  the Mirihana police which has jurisdiction over  this crime, that  such a police team had not informed the Mirihana police of their arrival  for an investigation  .

Lorenz mafia followed by White Van culture and now....

The law abiding citizens are most anguished and apprehensive  based on  their past terrorizing experiences .The formation of a mafia group  comprising security division stooges for the first time dates back to the era of late president Premadasa.  Under the latter during his reign , with his knowledge and consent a low rung police officer by the name of Lorenz operated a secret unit .
The other name of Lorenz by which he  was known was ‘ Lorenz mafia’. This secret  unit was housed on  the fourth floor of the housing ministry .Until today there is no report relating to the  mafia operations that were carried out there  . That Lorenz Mafia unit was dismantled without leaving room for any investigation into it by president Wijetunge who succeeded Premadasa after his death.  What happened to Lorenz who was an SSP then is not known to anybody.
Chandrika who came to power after promising to apprehend  the culprits and skin them alive at Galle Face green before the public , also did not conduct an investigation. Even after Lionel Weerasinghe alias ‘Tarzan’  the assassin of her husband who gave a statement which ran into 500 pages escaped from police custody , no action was taken to conduct an investigation against the officers who  aided and abetted in the escape .
Thereafter  ,Rajapakses who seized power started multiplying the ‘mafia’  pets  unendingly.
The white van ‘culture’ ( criminal operations) was begun by them  . 
The present government which said , investigations into those crimes will be instituted is presently releasing on bail the suspects taken into custody  over the brutal  killing of Prageeth Ekneliyagoda . On top of that these suspects who are of the forces were  even reinstated illegally.

Based on the above grounds, the Haloluwa incident and similar complaints received by Lanka e news long before portend grave danger  . Because , today is not the same as yesterday , and there are deadly signs of dangerous conspiracies in the offing , Lanka e news deems it necessary to publish the second report  in this connection . 
 It is the inescapable responsibility of the individuals who are custodians of the law to conduct investigations duly in order that the misgivings and doubts now preying on the minds of the law abiding masses shall be dispelled. In addition , it should be ensured  the sovereignty of the rule of  law is  reinforced.
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by     (2017-02-21 21:58:09)

SriLankan Airlines: Disregarding President Sirisena’s Promise Chairman Sacks Pilot


Colombo Telegraph
February 22, 2017
Amidst prevailing tension mounting between the Management of SriLankan Airlines and the Airline Pilots Guild of Sri Lanka which even warranted the intervention of the country’s President Maithripala Sirisena, Capt. Sujith Jayasekara’s services with the national carrier was terminated yesterday, barely a week prior to the conclusion of his year ending contract.
Chairman Ajit Dias
The Pilots Guild meeting the President of the country on behalf of Capt.Jayasekara only served to precipitate his termination, despite President Sirisena’s assurance to the ALPGSL that he would help resolve their existing disputes with the airline’s management, one of which was the unfair treatment meted out to their fellow pilot Capt. Jayasekara.
Capt. Sujith Jayasekara a senior pilot, who served the Air Force during the civil war, went on to serve SriLankan Airlines as a commercial pilot in an overall aviation career that spanned over four decades. He will now be deprived of many benefits by the management of the airline which is accorded to those who serve until retirement.
His termination is viewed by members of the Pilots Guild as an act of pure vindictiveness which was orchestrated by premier Ranil Wickremesinghe’s appointees Chairman Ajith Dias and the CEO Capt. Suren Ratwatte and supported by Capt. Rajind Ranatunga the Head of Flight Operations.
Incidentally Capt. Sujith Jayasekara is the third pilot who has lost employment since the Yahapalanaya government took control of the country.
The other two Pilots Capt. Charles Sirimanne and Capt. Uditha Danwatte of Mihin Lanka, which comes under the purview of the SriLankan Airlines management, along with Capt. Sujith Jayasekara have now been punished for highlighting mistakes made by the management of the airline.
Whilst Capt.Sujith Jayasekara questioned a flawed breathalyzer test procedure that was carried out, Capt. Charles Sirimanne pointed out a life threatening safety violation that Mihin Lanka was deliberately overlooking on their flight into Seychelles. In Capt.Uditha Danwatte’s case the airline’’s management made such a serious blunder, they went on to prematurely terminate him wrongfully for an alleged fault he was eventually cleared of by UK authorities. Fearing that Capt.Danwatte would prosecute the airline due to the utter dismal decision made by the management of the airline, he was recalled by the Head of Human Resources Pradeepa Kekulawala who offered the then First Officer the rank of a Captain and a posting with Mihin Lanka to compensate for their blunder. He accepted his command title and took the post. Subsequently with the two airlines’ merging with the closure of Mihin Lanka, many pilots were absorbed into SriLankan Airlines barring Capt. Uditha Danwatte. Now whilst the management of the airline continues to violate the country’s Air Navigation Act 208/209 by providing expatriates jobs as pilots whilst depriving many Sri Lankan nationals employment, Capt. Uditha Danwatte has gained employment elsewhere with a foreign airline.

Is Sri Lanka Heading Towards Child Labour Free Status?

 
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By Dr. Amara Satharasinghe-February 21, 2017, 8:08 pm

Director General, Department of Census and Statistics

Not all children’s work is bad. Many children work. They do household chores around the house, help in shops or farms. Such work can help children learn new skills, develop responsibility, manage their resources, and gain experience which might be helpful in their future social responsibilities. However, not all work has a positive effect on children’s lives. Some forms of child labour can damage children’s health, hinder their education and have major psychological effects.

The Department of Census and Statistics (DCS), at the request made by the Ministry of Labour and Trade Union Relations, conducted the National Child Activity Survey (CAS) in 2016.The International Labour Organization (ILO) provided financial assistance. The purpose of the survey was to assess the work status of children in Sri Lanka.

The CAS included children aged 5-17 years living in a sample of 25,000 nationally representative households. The survey collected information on children’s economic activity, social status, living conditions, type of employment, working conditions, sectors of activity, occupation, involvement in household chores, and effect of employment on education and health etc.

Demographic Characteristics

Based on the ILO Minimum Age Convention, 1973 (no.138) acceptable minimum age for light work is 12 years and 15 years for admission into regular employment. Accordingly, in estimating the global incidence of child labour, the ILO uses three age groups: 5-11, 12-14 and 15-17 years. Consequently all data in this survey are analyzed with respect to these age groups.

Total child population between ages 5 to 17 years is approximately 4.6 million. Of them, 55.6% are in 5 to 11 years, 23.4 % are in12-14 years and 21.0 % are in 15-17 years.

Education

A child’s education can be adversely affected by undue engagement in labour. The current survey showed that 90% of children between 5 and 17 years were currently attending school during the survey period. Among the younger groups of 5-11 years and 12-14 years, a proportion as high as 98% were attending school. In the oldest group of 15-17 years, this proportion was much lower at 60%, mostly because children awaiting O/L results were counted as not attending school.

Working Children

Children who have engaged in economic activities at least one hour during the reference period are identified as working children. According to Systems of National Accounts methodology, the production of all the services designed for own consumption within households are considered non-economic activity. It is seen that the almost all (98%) Sri Lankan children do not engage in economic activities.

The proportion of children in work is falling. Child involvement in economic activity is at very low levels in Sri Lanka. In all, an estimated 104,000 (2.3%) of 5-17 year old children were economically active in the year 2016. This percentage is very low relative to other countries at similar levels of income. A comparison of the results of Child Activity Surveys conducted in 2008/09 and 2016 shows an almost eleven percentage point fall in the proportion of children working in the period between the two survey rounds. Percentages of working children reported in 1999, 2008/09 and 2006 were 21.0, 12.9 and 2.3 percent respectively. Across the residential sectors, engagement in economic activity is highest (2.5%) in the Rural Sector and lowest (0.96%) in the estate sector. About 1.7 percent of the children in the urban sector are involved in economic activities.

Among the small minority of children who are engaged in economic activities, nearly 81% are in the oldest age category of 15-17 years. The majority of working children (59.3%) have contributed to the family income by working as unpaid workers in family enterprises.

The survey estimated that approximately 3.4 million children do household chores. Such chores include shopping for the household, cleaning, washing clothes, collecting firewood, fetching water from outside premises, caring for children and the aged. About 88 percent of the children engaged in household chores do so while attending schooling and about 45 percent of children spent 1-2 hours per week in household chores.

Children are expected to attend school. Some children attend to economic activities and/or household chores as well. The survey estimated that there were about 6,600 children who were only in economic activities and not attending school. Little over 56,000 (1.24%) are engaged in both Economic activities and Household chores. Children attending school while engaged in economic activities but not household chores is nearly 2,200 (0.05%). Quite impressively, a group of nearly 38,000 children are engaged in economic activity, and do household chores while also attending school. All these children merit attention and deserve assistance.

Doing household chores seems common among children. An estimated 74 percent of 5-17 year-old children were engaged in household chores. The survey collected information on the types of economic activity in which children engage. These economic activities are classified into three broad groups: agriculture, industry and services. Most economically-active children (37.2%) are found in the Service sector. This is followed by the Agriculture sector (33.8%) and Industry sector (29.1%).

Only a very low proportion of (2.8%) economically-active children reported that they faced work-related injuries/illnesses due to their economic activities.

The factors that have helped to bring down Sri Lanka’s child labour needs further investigation. However, both school and labour market factors have likely played a role. At the lower end of the age spectrum, government efforts to raise school enrolment have likely drawn children into the classroom that otherwise would have entered work or remained idle at home. For children at other points on the age spectrum, labour market factors have likely played a stronger part.

Child labour

In accordance with ILO, the term "child labour" is often defined as work that deprives children of their childhood, their potential and their dignity, and that is harmful to physical and mental development. The Department of Census and Statistics, in consultation with ILO and the Ministry of Labour and Trade Union Relations in Sri Lanka, defined a set of criteria, to identify "Child Labour". The same definition has been used in the previous round of the CAS as well.

The survey findings show that only 1.0 percent or approximately 44,000 children aged 5-17 years are engaged in child labour. Data on child labour trends point to significant progress against child labour in recent years. The proportion of 5-17 year-old children in child labour fell from 2.5 percent in 2008/09 to 1.0 percent in 2016.

The proportion of children in child labour varies by sex, age and residence. The proportion of male children in child labour was slightly higher (1.4%) than females (0.5%). Percentage of child labour rises as age increase. Highest percentage of 3.7 percent was reported for 15 – 17 years age group. Lowest (0.1%) was reported for 5-11 years age group while it was 0.5 percent for 12-14 years age group.

Hazardous forms of child labour

The hazardous form of child labour is a sub set of the child labour which is a subset of working children. In terms of developing a clear understanding of child labour, it is important to distinguish between hazardous form of child labour and other forms of child labour not considered hazardous.

In 2010, the Government of Sri Lanka gazetted a list of hazardous activities. As per these regulations of the Ministry of Labour Relations and Productivity Improvement under section 31 read with section 20A of the Employment of Women, Young Persons and Children Act, No. 47 of 1956, no person shall employ a person under eighteen years of age in any occupation listed in that gazette. Accordingly, DCS together with other ILO and other stakeholders, defined criteria to identify hazardous form of child labour.

The survey estimated that about 39,000 children are engaged in hazardous form of child labour. This number represents 0.9 % of the total child population of 5 to 17 years and reflects a decline from 1.5 % reported in 2008/09. It is noteworthy here that 58 percent of child labour are in the hazardous category by reason of working more than 43 hours rather than due to the nature of work, and all of them were over 12 years of age. While the children working in hazardous labour is numerically small, for each child it is a childhood lost.

Of the children 5-17 years who are involved in economic activities, 42.2 percent were engaged in child labour, out of which 89.2 percent are involved in hazardous work. They were all older than 11 years. Of those engaged in child labour, the proportion of males engaged in hazardous forms of child labour (90.4%) was slightly higher than females (86%). Not clear

Most children (44.8 %) in hazardous labour were in the industrial sector, a somewhat smaller proportion (37.1 %) in the service sector and the lowest proportion (18 %) in the agriculture sector. Similar variation is there across occupation categories. About 42 % of child labour engaged in elementary occupations, especially building construction. Another, 23.0 percent were in service/sales related occupations.

Other characteristics

The socio-economic characteristics of a household have an important role on children’s living standards, education, and employment. Any positive or negative change in these characteristics is immediately reflected on the household, and especially on children’s participation in work. CAS 2016 gathered some information on such characteristics. It was revealed that School is located within 1 km from the home for 31 percent of the children. Nearly 34 percent of children commute to school by walking. Parents of 94 percent of the children are satisfied about the safety of their children after returning from school. For 93 percent of children, home is the usual place of stay after returning from school. About three out of five working children attend school. Over 70 percent of children live with both parents. About 14 percent of children engaged in hazardous labour do not live with a parent.

Conclusion

Sri Lanka has achieved significant progress towards eliminating child labour in recent years. Between 2008/09 and 2016, the proportion of 5-17 year-old children in employment has fallen from 12.9 % to 2.3 %. As at 2016 only an estimated 44,000 children are engaged in child labour. However, these children need attention to free them from labour and to help live their childhood as normally as possible.

Political commitment, through the adoption of coherent policies in the areas of poverty reduction, basic education, and human rights, eradication child labour etc. can be considered to have enabled the progress that have been achieved in eliminating child labour in Sri Lanka. Particularly such policies, countrywide awareness programs etc. have helped to create a new generation of more educated parents less inclined to send their children to work.

It must be noted that "working children" is not the same as child labour. Even though some children were engaged in both economic and non-economic activities, not all of them can be considered to be in child labour. Poverty and low incomes are some of the underlying reasons for child labour and until parents are able to support themselves financially, children would continue to be used to help top up household incomes.

It seems that, future without child labour is within our grasp. For Sri Lanka to eradicate child labour completely, policies need to, take into consideration, the fact that of the estimated 4,571,000 children aged 5-17 years covered in the survey, an estimated 103,700 (2.3%) worked at least one hour during the 7 days before the interview; 43,700 (0.1%) were involved in child labour while 39,000 (0.9%) were engaged in hazardous forms of child labour. The full report on the Child Activity Survey – 2016 is published in the DCS website: www.statistics.gov.lk.

1820By K.C. Somaratna-Wednesday, 22 February 2017

logoIntroduction

22I was very happy to see that two-page advertisement in Daily FT on the first ever PV Solar park at Hambantota commissioned to develop 10 MW and I could imagine how happy the Minister and State Minister would have been. Why I was so happy was that according to the graph given below taken from Long Term Generation Plan of the CEB for 2015-2034, this 10MW unit at Hambantota would give us at least 45000GW hrs of energy in one year – three times our annual electricity consumption.


How the Israel lobby is using Owen Jones

Guardian columnist Owen Jones will headline an event for the Jewish Labour Movement, a group involved in Israel’s effort to thwart the Palestine solidarity movement. (Marc Lozano/Flickr)

Asa Winstanley-21 February 2017

Last week the Jewish Labour Movement announced that Guardian columnist Owen Jones will be the big name speaker at an event the group is holding on 2 April.

Jones will lecture on “left anti-Semitism, the Middle East and the Labour Party.”


Seven million people 'ever closer' to starvation in Yemen: UN


The UN says famine is more likely due to a recent escalation in the conflict, with a port that imports key food supplies becoming a target
The UN says nearly 500,000 children are suffering from acute malnutrition in Yemen (AFP)

Tuesday 21 February 2017

Seven million Yemenis are closer than ever to starvation, the UN humanitarian coordinator in the country warned on Tuesday, almost two years since a conflict escalated between the government and rebels.
"Seven million Yemenis do not know where their next meal will come from and are ever closer to starvation" in a country of 27 million people, Jamie McGoldrick said.
"Over 17 million people are currently unable to adequately feed themselves and are frequently forced to skip meals - women and girls eat the least and last," he said in a statement.
Yemen's war pits the internationally recognised government of President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi against Houthi rebels, who are allied with forces loyal to former president Ali Abdullah Saleh.
The fighting has intensified since a Saudi-led coalition intervened in March 2015 in support of the government after the Houthis seized control of the capital the previous September.

READ: UN appeals for $2.1 billion for Yemen

Since early January, pro-government forces have pressed a major offensive aimed at recapturing Yemen's Red Sea coastline, and retook the southwestern port of Mokha earlier this month.
"I am deeply concerned with the escalation of conflict and militarisation of Yemen's western coast. It is coming at a great cost to civilians," McGoldrick said.
'I am deeply concerned with the escalation of conflict and militarisation of Yemen's western coast. It is coming at a great cost to civilians'
-  Jamie McGoldrick, UN
Unexploded rockets have landed inside the rebel-held port of Hodeida, he said, "reducing even further the number of ships" and the imports that are vital to ensure Yemen's food supplies.
"Given that the country is 80-90 percent dependent on imported food staples, I am compelled to raise the alarm," the UN official said.
"If left unabated, these factors combined could accelerate the onset of famine."

The threat to children

Also on Tuesday, the UN children's agency warned that 462,000 children were suffering from acute malnutrition.
The UN aid chief warned last month that the impoverished Arabian Peninsula country was sliding deeper into humanitarian crisis and could face famine this year.
Stephen O'Brien said that without "immediate action," famine was "a possible scenario for 2017".
More than 7,400 people have been killed since the intervention began nearly two years ago, including around 1,400 children, according to the United Nations.

India: Alleged abduction and rape of famous actress sparks outrage


Image via Shutterstock / Multi-share


21st February 2017
THE alleged abduction and rape of a well-known actress in the southern Indian state of Kerala sparked outrage among activists who say the case highlights the dangers faced by all women in India and a lack of justice for victims of sexual violence.
In a statement to the police, the actress said she was abducted by a group of men who drove her around in a car for two hours on Friday night and sexually assaulted and threatened her.
She had been picked up from her home by a car sent by a production house to take her to the studio for dubbing when she was attacked, police said.
“The car she was travelling in was hit by a van from behind in a pre-planned accident,” police spokesman P.S. Rajasekharan told the Thomson Reuters Foundation, who declined to name the victim as it is a rape case.
“The men then entered her car and drove away, dropping her off on the outskirts of Kochi after a couple of hours.”
The actress said during the assault they took pictures of her and filmed her, threatening her with blackmail, he added.
On Monday, Kerala police arrested two men, including the driver of her car, who investigators said was part of the plot to blackmail the actress.
The main accused, the actress’ former driver, is still at large, police said, adding that they suspected the involvement of at least seven people in the crime.
A case of kidnapping, rape and criminal conspiracy has been registered by the police.
Violence against women in India has been under the spotlight since the fatal gang rape of a 23-year-old woman on a bus in New Delhi in 2012. Friday’s attack again underlined the vulnerability of women, campaigners say.
India toughened its anti-rape laws in response to the outcry over the New Delhi attack, but rape, acid attacks and domestic violence are common.
According to the National Crimes Records Bureau, 327,394 crimes against women were reported to the police in 2015, including rapes, kidnappings, sexual harassment, trafficking, molestation and cruelty by husbands and relatives.
The film fraternity rallied around the actress, staging a protest in the port city of Kochi on Sunday evening.
Describing it as a “heinous crime”, Association of Malayalam Movie Artists president and parliamentarian Innocent, who goes by just his first name, called for a swift investigation.
In a social media post, actor Mohanlal Viswanathan Nair, popularly known as just Mohanlal, said: “It’s time we stop being candle holding and candle lighting sympathisers and ensure that the law of the land be strengthened in such ways that nobody even dares contemplating such acts leave alone commit them.” – Thomson Reuters Foundation

Losing banking jobs to EU 'threatens financial stability across Europe'

Concern growing in the City that Brexit-related bank moves could unravel related professions and risk wider financial turmoil
Bankers believe Brexit talks will start badly. Photograph: Eddie Keogh/Reuters
 and Tuesday 21 February 2017

The City of London has warned that the loss of banking jobs to EU countries due to Brexit could threaten British and European financial stability.

Interviews with more than half a dozen senior bankers and business leaders reveal growing certainty that the threat of losing single market access will force a wave of relocations this year and may cause an “unwinding” of a cluster of related businesses.

While the immediate loss of a few thousand jobs is viewed with relative equanimity, concern is mounting over the knock-on effect on financial stability if the City’s valuable related professions begin to fragment.

Douglas Flint, the chairman of HSBC, Britain’s biggest bank, said common regulation needed to be agreed with the remaining 27 EU members once Brexit talks got under way or there was a risk of sparking turbulence in the financial system.

“One of the critical pieces is the ecosystem that exists, which effectively connects the fund managers to the risk managers to the liquidity providers to the insurance providers and the credit providers … it all benefits from all the other pieces being there,” Flint said.

“That gets built up over decades as bits get added to the existing cluster. It’s difficult to know which is the piece that causes people to say, ‘Well, if that’s not there I have to do something else,’ and you get an unwinding of a cluster because things that are connected today are more important than people imagine.”

He echoed that warning in remarks accompanying HSBC’s worse-than-expected results yesterday, pointing to “uncertainties facing the UK and the EU as they enter Brexit negotiations”.

HSBC will implement its contingency plan – to move 1,000 roles from London to Paris – “progressively over the next two years” but American, Swiss and Japanese investment banks may not have as much time because of the way they are structured. Many rely on their operations in London to service their EU clients and are preparing to open replacement offices and apply to local regulators for new banking licences to ensure they can keep providing finance to major clients after the UK leaves the single market.

All firms need to make some adaptations to the way they operate, regardless of the length of any transition period, but City sources said the extent to which business leaves the UK will depend on what deal Theresa May’s government strikes.

Flint said there was recognition of a need for a transition period. “If one of the ways of avoiding damage is ensuring a proper implementation phase that must be in everyone’s interest” .

“The point of no return is probably nine to 12 months away,” said one senior investment banker in London. “The only thing we might know by then is whether an implementation phase is possible, but I am very sceptical they can deliver on it [in time], so we will go past the point of no return.”

A report by accountants PricewaterhouseCoopers for a pan-European lobby group has warned that some banks cannot wait for long. It says: “Clarity will only emerge on the negotiation outcomes during the negotiation period following article 50 notification, with certainty only at its conclusion, so these banks need to begin implementation before having certainty over the eventual Brexit outcome.”

Such warnings are being passed to the government by a number of top financiers, many of whom believe the City’s early focus on job losses has obscured the more important challenge of persuading Europe that it faces potentially catastrophic risks of its own if London’s position as a financial centre is damaged.

“The big question of what being outside the single market [for financial regulation] actually means is still unresolved,” said Sir Howard Davies, the chairman of Royal Bank of Scotland and a former deputy governor of the Bank of England. “How far, even if you’re outside the single market, can you retain equivalence … or are you regarded as a third country; all of that … tedious sort of detail … is still to play for.

“The extent to which we get equivalence will depend on the extent to which we can bring home the argument that not agreeing a reasonable degree of equivalence between London and the rest of the EU is actually going to be disruptive to Europe’s capital markets and damage the ability of European companies to raise funds. That’s where the current battleground is.”

Bankers predict that the talks will start badly. They worry that off-colour remarks by ministers such as Boris Johnson are causing particular offence in the EU and provoke belligerent rhetoric over the size of any “divorce settlement” – a particular cause for concern in the run-up to triggering article 50.

Davies, who spends part of his time as a professor at the Sciences Po university in Paris, said: “There clearly is a risk of a disorderly Brexit if it becomes politically very unpleasant. I’m slightly anxious about the fact that what I hear when I go over to the other side of the Channel is all they are focusing on is the size of the [settlement] bill and that seems to me not particularly well understood in the debate here.

“If it becomes very acrimonious you never know how the consequences flow. People may start to make decisions which are economically irrational, and what you want is for both sides to say, ‘Look, we can have our rhetoric but what really makes sense for both sides?’ My fear is irrationality, and irrationality generated by a mismatch of expectations, when the process starts.”

Though most business leaders have welcomed May’s recent speech promising to try to secure a generous free trade agreement with the EU, many remain sceptical that it can be achieved in the face of such rancour and competing interests.


In an interview shortly before May’s speech, Carolyn Fairbairn, the director general of the CBI, urged: 

“We have been absolutely clear and I remain absolutely clear that an exit into WTO [rules] at the stroke of midnight without the proper planning and preparation in place would be very serious for the UK economy. We think an abrupt overnight move into WTO [rules] should be ruled out. It is not an ideological argument, it is a practical one.”

“When the prime minister starts to say ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ that is deeply worrying,” said one investment banker.

International Trade, Brexit, and Trade Wars

Successes & Failures of 2016 U.S. Elections — Part 27

by Sunil J. Wimalawansa- 

One effective way to avoid wars is to leverage political and military strength to negotiate to achieve peace.  Charity begins at home, so first let’s make “America Great Again” with a boom in the industrial sectors and creation of millions of good-paying jobs and the generation of long-lasting prosperity, internal safety, and peace. 

International trade:
( February 21, 2017, Washington DC, Sri Lanka Guardian) Mr. Trump led a campaign against the existing trade principles the United States has advocated for decades, including the tendency to have multi-lateral trade agreements.  He plans to show how serious he was about deviating from Washington’s free-trade orthodoxy and using the threat of tariffs to address what he calls the unfair trade practices of China, Mexico, Germany, among other countries.  Nevertheless, he needs Congressional support to carry out actions to demonstrate his vison.
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal on January 13, 2017, Mr. Trump said, “Free trade doesn’t mean anything.  It’s not free if China sends its products here and we can’t send our products there.”  Mr. Trump and his key advisers have criticized the global trading system as unfair because the U.S. market is more open to freely traded goods and investment than are some other economies.  Trade agreements don’t need to be with zero-sum gain; it can be and should be, a win : win situation.
His vision is to abandon all multilateral trade agreements United States is having (perhaps, except for the European Union) and future alliances, and engage in only bilateral trade agreements between individual countries.  This makes sense; if one country does not like the agreement or one is violating it, the other country can give 30-day’s notice and exit the agreement or the two countries can renegotiate.  This is much easier than several countries trying to negotiate what’s in it for them; such multilateral agreements take awful long time to materialize.
America needs to avoid unproductive trade wars: 
Some countries, such as the United States and Britain, are in trade deficits, but a few others, such as China and Germany, have a trade surplus.  Countries with trade surpluses will continue to take steps to protect their current account surplus and their currencies.  Countries with high annual trade deficits (high consumers, such as the United States and Eurozone partners) have accused Germany and China of encouraging savings over consumption, damping the recovery.  This seems like sour grapes.
Moreover, especially with Brexit, Germany and France are concerned about protecting their economies and holding the Eurozone together and the Euros; the question is how much support they can get from Mr. Trump in this regards.
Trade wars are painful and many times, counterproductive:
There are no winners in trade wars.  For example, if President Trump goes ahead with his threat to impose a 35% tariff for automobiles imported from Germany to the United States, it will have marked effect on the sales of German cars, such as Volkswagen and BMW, in the United States.  Whereas, other issues, such as improving relations with Russia, the future of NATO, ending the Iranian nuclear deal, and dumping the Paris climate change agreement, etc., while important to Germany and China, not as much as valuable to as bilateral trade with the United States.
More intense issues exist with trade between Canada and Untied States.  The trade between two countries exceed $2.0 billion, each day.  Most of this comprise of automobile parts and food.  In the case of car chassis, some of these go across the U.S. Canadian border several times before the final product is launch in the U.S.A.  Thus, rather than having a free trade, trade without taxes, it will be a nightmare to impose a fixed tariff for such product (i.e., taxing multiple times for the same item).
If German Chancellor Angela Merkel is concerned about bilateral trade and NATO and the European Union, she should take steps similar to those taken by the U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May; visit White House and have a face-to-face discussion with the president of the United States.  Chancellor Merkel and her team should meet with Mr. Trump and his team to increase ties between the two countries and start bilateral negotiations on good faith for what is acceptable to both countries.  However, as the first step, one of their envoys is coming to United States this week to initiate trade discussions.
Brexit and the American political revolution:
With the Brexit, the current government in the United Kingdom is on a political path somewhat like that brought about by the U.S. election in November 2016.  The constituents in both countries rejected the establishment.  In this regards, there are more commonalities and agreements between Britain (Ms. May) and the current administration in the United States (Mr. Trump), than differences.
Meanwhile, Mr. Trump will be demanding increased defense contributions from European alliances, especially NATO members.  He will hold on to campaign promise of NATO-allies accountable for defense and for contributing the minimum set target of 2% of GDP of individual participating countries.  Only, the United States, United Kingdom, Greece, Poland, and Estonia pays the required 2%, but not other countries including Germany and France.  Couple of other countries have promised to fulfil that commitment by the end of 2017.
Moreover, Mr. Trump will insist NATO not only to get involved more in the issues related to Europe and its territories and increase cooperation between contributing countries, but also increase bilateral collaboration on counterterrorism with the United States.  In recent years, Europeans have faced many challenges, especially Germany and France.  In addition to the Brexit, they are facing other ongoing changes and concerns, such as growing nationalistic movements (e.g., in Italy and Germany), increasing domestic security threats, a serious refugee crises, and associated increased domestic terrorism.
Unites States administration is supporting the NATO; however, European partners must engage more in defense and security, on-ground military personnel, sharing antiterrorism-related information and contributing finances.  Currently, U.S. is providing over 70% of the NATO budget; with fair contributions from the member countries, this should bring back under 50% of the budget.
Considering the above, in the long run, NATO must be prepared to take broader and direct responsibilities in maintaining the peace in the region, while the U.S. providing similar or somewhat lesser amount of funds and military personnel.  With the deep divisions within the European Union, greater financial and economic integration seems unlikely, but strengthening of the military and security union is however, is a greater possibility.
Nevertheless, with the ongoing changes in the political, economic, and security concerns in the Europe, the time will tell whether NATO would remain the same or it may eventually convert into a European military or a defense force.  Such as a European Army to take care of its local issues and to protect sovereignties of its member countries.
To be Continued 
Professor Sunil J. Wimalawansa MD, PhD, MBA, DSc, is a Physician-Scientist, Social Entrepreneur, Philanthropist, and Educator with strategic long-term vision (LinkedIn-Wimalawansa).
The author can be reached via
 https://wimalawansa.org/