Pakistan Is the Crisis Flying Under the Radar

BY JAMES STAVRIDIS-JANUARY 24, 2017

The set of foreign-policy challenges headed like a freight train at the Trump administration is obvious: the Islamic State and the associated tragedy of Syria; a bubbling North Korea led by an unpredictable dictator with a fistful of nuclear weapons; an angry China hypersensitive about Taiwan and the South China Sea; and Russian cyber-activity roiling domestic political waters alongside Moscow’s ongoing occupation of Crimea and destruction of Syria. But flying under the radar is a dangerous problem not receiving a great deal of attention: Pakistan.

As the sixth-most-populous country in the world (ahead of Nigeria, and behind Brazil), Pakistan is home to more than 200 million people and, by some accounts, the world’s second-largest city, Karachi. When Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was elected in May 2013, the country marked its first democratic transition between political parties since partition in 1947. Recently, the strength of the country’s nascent democracy has been questioned as Sharif confronts protests in response to the Panama Papers, which revealed that his family hid wealth in overseas accounts to avoid paying taxes. This highlights the ongoing challenge of corruption (Transparency International rates the country 117 out of 168 on its Corruption Perception Index) that threatens Pakistan’s democratic stability and long-term growth potential. The nation also faces a virulent terrorism problem from the Pakistani Taliban, which has killed tens of thousands of civilians and troops over the past five years. Since 2006, more than 60,000 Pakistanis have been killed in terrorist events — essentially two 9/11 tragedies per year in a country with a population much smaller than the United States.

Looming over all of this are the issues associated with Pakistan’s long, unsettled relationship with India. Tensions between India and Pakistan have been especially high since September, when Pakistani terrorists attacked an Indian army base in Kashmir, leaving 19 soldiers dead; the two countries have since exchanged daily cross-border fire, leading to the deaths of soldiers and civilians on both sides.
Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal probably contains over 100 warheads, existing as a hedge against a similar Indian arsenal.While under a reasonable level of military security at the moment, the nuclear weapons represent the world’s least-stable nuclear capability — with the possible exception of North Korea.

Given this tableau of political instability, terrorism, and nuclear weapons, the United States should be thinking hard about how to help create a more stable situation in Pakistan, a nation that is a friend and partner, but with whom we have had significant differences over the past decades.

First, the Trump administration should recognize that our levers to influence Pakistan are limited — but not entirely impotent. While we can and should be working to strengthen national ties with India, this must be done in a way that is not threatening to Pakistan. Thus, the first best option to help achieve stability in South Asia is to do all we can to encourage India to try to resolve differences with its neighbor. Washington’s role could include top-level official visits to both capitals; offering unofficial “Track 2” negotiating programs; and explicitly making peace and stability in South Asia a U.S. strategic interest, identified in our national strategic planning documents.

Second, the Trump administration should increase military assistance to Pakistan in the counterterrorism fight on the Afghan-Pakistani border. A long source of frustration for U.S. military planners — including during my time as NATO’s supreme allied commander responsible for combat operations in Afghanistan — has been Pakistani support for the Afghan Taliban. Developing a package of counterterrorism incentives for Pakistan that requires a quid pro quo of their reducing and eventually dropping support for insurgents within Afghanistan is key. Such incentives could include more robust intelligence sharing; better surveillance and strike technology; and joint operations. Washington’s efforts to sell weapons, surveillance, and intelligence systems to Islamabad have been uneven to say the least. Setting out a coherent, reliable pipeline of military assistance and sales would be very helpful.

A third idea would be to increase soft-power support in Pakistan. When the United States and NATO led relief efforts following the massive earthquake in Pakistan in 2005, it had a significant and positive impact on America’s image in the country. Providing more financial aid tied to education, medicine, and humanitarian projects could help. This is an area where much suspicion lingers following medical programs that are perceived to have been tied to intelligence gathering. We need effective strategic communications alongside the aid to help recover.

A question that arises in the context of soft power is whether to impose conditions on Pakistan in return for the aid it receives. While Republicans in Congress have pushed a more conservative approach to use aid as a tactic to pressure Pakistan, it is unclear how the new administration will approach this. In general, it would be wise to consider both our short- and long-term priorities in the region:Too often, a focus on eradicating terrorism today fails to address the circumstances that drive people to extremism in the first place. Using aid to strengthen democratic stability, create opportunities for citizens, and increase investments to grow the economy will translate into long-term benefits that help minimize incentives to turn to extremism.

Fourth and finally, it would make sense to internationalize our efforts. Working with other nations — Britain or Germany, for example — could leverage the impact of our efforts. There are also international organizations, such as the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, that exercise considerable influence in Pakistan. Strategizing jointly with international partners can help.

For the Trump administration, the first set of challenges will come fast and furious, and responses will tend to be tactical. Spending some strategic time analyzing the possibility of a classic Black Swan event (low probability, high impact) like the destabilization of Pakistan would make sense. Investing time and effort early with this huge and important nation, while working closely with India, could pay significant dividends in global stability during the next few years.

Photo credit: CHIP SOMODEVILLA/Getty Images

Rajiv Gandhi's Sri Lanka intervention helped win Haryana Election back in 1987?

Former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi. (File photo)

By Yatish Yadav - 26th January 2017 08:19

NEW DELHI: ‘Insider Knowledge’ can be roughly defined as real-time intelligence that shapes the events and gives us a peep into situation room to highlight why decisions were made by then government. But, blunders will be too many and difficult to count if the ‘insider knowledge’ is ‘sexed-up’ with deceptions and lies by the faceless intelligence officials.

The CIA, top American intelligence agency, which had convinced the people to enter 2003 Iraq war had observed in 1987 that then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi intervened in Sri Lankan crisis to win Haryana state assembly election. The intelligence memo dated June 8, 1987, which has been declassified by the CIA observed that India’s decision to airlift humanitarian aid to Sri Lankan Tamils was to gain ‘Hindu’ sympathy.

 “ He (Rajiv Gandhi) probably believes such dramatic actions on behalf of Hindus in Sri Lanka will help win over Indian Hindus before critical election next week in Haryana state,” the CIA memo said.

 Over a month later, another CIA memo (July 29, 1987) criticised Rajiv Gandhi for having short-term view of things. And, that was the day when India and Sri Lanka signed a peace accord that included provision for Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF). The CIA memo reads; “ Sri Lanka, moreover, could become a military entanglement for India.”

 “ Gandhi tends to have a short-term view of things and may not see the pitfalls in trying to achieve a cheap victory using the tougher line on Sri Lanka.”

India in Lanka

 A CIA intelligence officer memo suggested that Rajiv’s move in Sri Lanka was keeping in the view India’s determination to be the dominant regional power in South Asia.

 “We do not, however, believe Gandhi or his advisers have a ‘greater India’ in mind. New Delhi may instead aspire to a relationship with Colombo that resembles its ties to Nepal, over which India exercises strong influence.”

 The CIA also believed certain political advantage to Rajiv Gandhi with the signing of accord and input suggested that his efforts to bring peace for Sri Lankan Tamils will help him “build support among Tamils in Southern India, where the ruling Congress party has been weakest.”

Counting Intelligence

Before Rajiv’s decision, an assessment prepared in June 1984 by the CIA said that New Delhi then rules by Indira Gandhi was “preparing for the possibility of direct military intervention.” The CIA intelligence memo said Gandhi believes that ethnic violence in Sri Lanka can have serious repercussions for India as well as her own political future.

“We believe New Delhi’s support for Sri Lanka’s Tamil separatists probably is an effort to control a movement it cannot eradicate. Gandhi cannot move against Sri Lankan Tamils in Tamil Nadu without risking the loss of India Tamil votes in this election year,” the CIA memo said.

The intelligence agency said Mrs Gandhi wants to forestall intervention in Sri Lanka by the superpowers and Indian officials reacted with dismay last summer after hearing of Sri Lanka’s thinly veiled pleas for security help from several countries including Pakistan, UK and USA.  CIA said the Indian Navy can launch a small amphibious assault force against Sri Lanka on short notice.

“ In our opinion, the likelihood of a peaceful resolution of the tensions that divide Sri Lankan society is rapidly diminishing,” the CIA intel note said.

Lower prices boost gold demand in India, Chinese buying wanes

By Rajendra Jadhav and Sethuraman N R | MUMBAI/BENGALURU-Fri Jan 27, 2017

Gold demand in India improved this week, boosted by a fall in prices overseas, although some consumers waited to see if hopes for an import duty cut in the government's budget next week will be realised. 

Global gold prices on Friday hit a two-week low on a stronger dollar keeping the metal on track to record their first weekly loss since late December.

"Wedding season demand has improved. The price correction is also luring in customers," said Harshad Ajmera, the proprietor of JJ Gold House, a wholesaler in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata.

Dealers in India, the world's second-largest consumer of the metal, were charging a premium of up to $2 an ounce this week over official domestic prices, unchanged from last week. The domestic price includes a 10 percent import tax.

"Few jewellers are delaying purchases expecting import duty cut in the budget, but some think this may not happen," said a Mumbai-based dealer with a private bank.

The bullion industry has been urging a reduction in the duty to combat smuggling, which has increased since India raised import duty to 10 percent in August 2013 in an effort to narrow a gaping current account deficit.

"The government is going to implement GST (Goods and Services Tax) this year. At the time of implementation, it may reduce import duty to adjust overall duty structure on gold," said a Mumbai-based dealer with a private bank.

The trade ministry has requested the finance ministry to cut the import duty to 6 percent, according to a senior government official. The Indian government will present on Feb. 1 its budget for the 2017/18 financial year starting April 1.

In the local market, gold prices were trading around 28,150 rupees per 10 grams on Friday, after falling to 26,862 rupees last month, the lowest level since Feb. 2, 2016.

Demand in China waned further, ahead of the week-long Lunar New Year Holiday, forcing premiums in the top-consumer nation to narrow to nearly $6 from $14 last week.

"It has been extremely quiet despite the correction in prices," said Ronald Leung, chief dealer at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong.

In Hong Kong and Singapore, premiums were mostly unchanged from previous week's premium of around $1 - $1.40 an ounce.

China's net gold imports via main conduit Hong Kong rose 2.7 percent in December over the previous month.

Premiums in Tokyo were flat against a discount of 50 cents last week, traders said.

(Additional reporting by Apeksha Nair in BENGALURU; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

Tamil Nadu Students Challenge State & Centre

By S. Sivathasan –January 27, 2017

S. Sivathasan

“When it concerns our revered Motherland
We shall no longer wring our impotent hands”- Bharathi

The eruption in Tamil Nadu had assumed volcanic proportions last week. Even as it was scoring an epic victory, it was throttled at the neck before it could reach the vent and spew out it’s molten lava. Yet history was made in the legislative Assembly by the Tamils, with students in the forefront, populace in support and the legislators in tow. At the sensible insistence of the students and the youth the state and centre acted responsively and enacted the desired legislation. This was an act of political triumph.

Over Two Million Demonstrators

A vast concourse of students, adults and children assembled in 132 locations across the whole state was unprecedented. They numbered over 2 million and Chennai Marina alone accounted for 1 million. Commitment to a cause – demand for legal recognition of their rights by Centre and State – brought them together. Peaceable protest and orderly demonstration were their weapons of choice. With food and drinks given liberally by the community as a gesture of participation and support, crowds swelled by the day. In a show of persistence, they stayed put for 6 consecutive days.

Purpose Driven Discipline

Did Tamil Nadu see a surge of the students in anger and wrath with verve and determination for a mere prosaic Jallikattu – embracing the youthful bulls? That would be to look at a pointed finger but failing to see the direction. The Tamil nation knew the underlying reason and India admired the motivation, depth of feeling, gigantic organization and self-discipline. In passing it may be said social media had placed in their hands, modern instruments for facile communication and an unprecedented phenomenon was seen.

On the second day of the protest, as is standard practice lights were cut off at night to sow chaos. A lakh of mobile phones flashed instantly and lit up the Marina. There wasn’t a single instance of hurt for a man, woman, girl or child. In keeping with national programme of ‘Neat India’, garbage accumulating at 100 tons a day at the Marina was cleared by volunteers without a break. All these acts won the admiration of the Indian polity.

A view of the Marina with its protesters

Clear Direction

All for what? To secure a worthwhile objective. Among protests and demonstrations in Tamil Nadu since independence, three stand out in scale, intensity and result orientation. They are: 1) Anti – Hindi agitation of January 1965, which resulted in a regime change from Congress to DMK in1967. The change secured the language demands of Tamils through a legislative amendment in December 1967 for “virtual indefinite policy of bilingualism” ie use of English and Hindi in official transactions. 2) Students in Ferment of March 2013, which galvanized the youth and 3) The Student Movement of January 2017, which brought in the desired legislation to the statute book, in respect of Jallikattu.

Such developments were in the logic of progress and were foreseen. In an article – ‘Tamil Nadu in Ferment’ – published in the Colombo Telegraph of April 13, 2013 this writer said “The significance of the struggle defines an altogether new political direction in the state. The change in its incipient stage as of now portends great challenges to Delhi”. In the week following Thai Pongal, Tamil Nadu was constrained to enact legislation to sanction Jallikattu. Delhi sensed the dead heat of Chennai Marina and responded proactively.

In the march of time, a journey is continuous. This writer added further in that article, “The groundwork is laid for a new forceful formation to emerge. It will not raise plaintive cries to Delhi. A new equilibrium is in the making and fresh bearings have to be taken therefrom.” This shift has come to pass and Delhi has been challenged not with a plaintiff plea but with an aggressive demand. The very sequence of events and the supersonic speed with which the legislative arrangements were executed have left many an Indian citizen aghast.

Read More

Hong Kong: Domestic workers make plea for fair treatment over Lunar New Year

Domestic helpers and their supporters hold pictures of 23-year-old Indonesian maid Erwiana Sulistyaningsih, who was allegedly brutally tortured by her employers, during a rally to mark the International Women's Day in Hong Kong, Sunday, March 9, 2014. They demanding to end the abuse, slavery and commodification of women migrant workers in Hong Kong. (AP Photo/Vincent Yu)

27th January 2017

AS much of Hong Kong looks forward to reuniting with family and eating a feast this weekend in celebration of Lunar New Year, Hong Kong’s domestic workers are making a plea for fair treatment this holiday period.

Domestic workers are often subject to unfair working conditions, reports the South China Morning Post, but they are particularly vulnerable over the upcoming holiday as families often ask them to work at relatives’ houses to ease the burden of entertaining.

“Our wish is for Hong Kong to become a better place for domestic workers. We have been feeling very intense discrimination over the years,” Eni Lestari, spokeswoman of the Asia Migrants’ Coordinating Body, which pushes for domestic workers’ rights, said. “We want to be recognised and respected. We want to be treated as human beings.”

SEE ALSO: The plight of the globe’s domestic workers

Employers have also been alerted to the legal ramifications of asking domestic workers to work the holidays.

Betty Yung Ma Shan-yee, chairwoman of the Employers of Domestic Helpers Association, pointed out that doing so would breach helpers’ contracts, even if employees were willing to do the work.

Yung said, “The employers could be put on the ban list if the workers file complaints to the consulates. The consulates may not allow any domestic workers to work for them in the future.”

They have also been warned that if a domestic worker does work any of the days over the holiday, it is the employer’s responsibility to ensure that they are compensated in kind with a day in lieu.

The plight of domestic workers in Hong Kong came to the fore in 2014 when pictures of Indonesian domestic worker Erwiana Sulistyaningsih went viral. The pictures showed extensive injuries that were inflicted by Sulistyaningsih’s employer. The case shone a light on the dire working conditions many domestic workers are forced to live with and made Erwiana Sulistyaningsih the face of Hong Kong’s migrant rights movement.

SEE ALSO: Hong Kong domestic helper testifies she was starved, tortured by employer

There are more than 350,000 foreign domestic workers in Hong Kong serving over 280,000 households. The government has been taking steps to combat the issue of worker’s rights in the city but progress has been slow.

Last week, Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying, in his final policy address said that the Labour Department plans to introduce an amendment bill this year to complement a newly announced code of practice for employment agencies recruiting domestic workers.  If passed, the amendment will provide the legal basis for enforcing the code, which is currently legally non-binding.

Domestic helpers and their supporters attend a protest to support Erwiana Sulistyaningsih in Hong Kong in January 2014. Source: AP.

The code was promulgated in response to public concerns, especially those from job seekers and “with particular regard to the situation of foreign domestic helpers,” the department wrote in the draft code released last April.

The department also plans to impose heavier penalties on employment agencies that overcharge jobseekers or operate without a licence, Leung said

While domestic worker’s rights groups are happy with the new bill, they are reluctant to celebrate just yet.

“We hope that this will not be just another government media hype and it should respond to the longstanding demands of migrant domestic workers’ organisations and advocates,” Eman Villanueva of the Asian Migrants’ Coordinating Body, told HKFP.

“Legislation should have been introduced much earlier [than] what they have promised, not three and a half years after Erwiana’s horrific case,” he said.

Missing activist Salman Haider reunited with family

Salman Haider and Ahmed Raza Naseer say they are safe, as fate of three others - missing for weeks - remains unclear.

Police clashed with protesters rallying for the missing activists in Karachi earlier this month [Shakil Adil/AP]

By Asad Hashim-28 JANUARY 2017

Islamabad, Pakistan - One out of five disappeared Pakistani activists has been released and is back with his family, and another one has made contact with his relatives, Al Jazeera has learned, three weeks after the men first went missing.

Salman Haider and Ahmed Raza Naseer made contact via a telephone call earlier on Saturday, family members told Al Jazeera, without offering comment on their relatives' current whereabouts.

Later on Saturday, Zeeshan Haider, Salman's brother, confirmed his release.

"He's with the family, and we're happy that he's back," Zeeshan Haider told Al Jazeera. "He's in good condition [in terms of his health]."

The disappearances prompted a series of protests by rights groups across the country, calling for the government to locate the men, or for them to be produced in a court to face formal charges if they had been detained by the state's intelligence agencies.

Haider - a noted progressive activist, poet and university lecturer - was abducted while on his way home on the outskirts of the Pakistani capital Islamabad on January 6, family members told Al Jazeera earlier.

Naseer was abducted from his electronics shop in his native village just outside the town of Nankana Sahib in Punjab province on January 7, his family said.

READ MORE: Silencing Pakistan's activists

The two men were among five activists who disappeared over the course of four days across Punjab province and from Islamabad.

There was no immediate word on the whereabouts of the other three men, Waqas Goraya, Asim Saeed and Samar Abbas, on Saturday.

"He is safe and has made contact with us on the telephone," said Tahir Raza Naseer, Ahmed's brother. "He did not say who had taken him."

Haider's family had also made a similar statement.

"He has been in contact with the family, and the police should be consulted for further details," said a close family member, on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the subject.

"We are still looking into these reports and will make a statement later," said Naeem Iqbal, a spokesperson for the Islamabad Police.

READ MORE: TV host Aamir Liaquat banned over 'hate speech'

The Civil Progressive Alliance of Pakistan, a progressive human rights groups based in the southern city of Karachi, issued a statement saying the whereabouts of its president, Samar Abbas, were still unknown.

"Samar Abbas, president of Civil Progressive Alliance Pakistan is still missing and family have not been contacted by any official yet," said a statement posted on their official Facebook page on Saturday.

It remains unclear who abducted the men.

The issue of enforced disappearances is not new for Pakistan. Rights activists allege that there are thousands of people who have been "disappeared" by the state, with some allegedly killed while in custody.

In December, the government's Commission on Enforced Disappearances reported that the bodies of 936 missing persons had been found in Balochistan province alone since 2011.

The Pakistani government denies any wrongdoing, and, in the case of the five activists, the interior ministry said it was "making every possible effort for [their] safe recovery", according to a statement released last week.

OPINION: Pakistan's violent cyberspace - No place for dissent

Zohra Yusuf, chairperson of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP), urged the ministry to make information about the case public.

"It is incumbent upon the interior minister to bring the facts before the people, because he said he was personally pursuing the case," she told Al Jazeera. "I think it's his responsibility to come up with the reasons that they were taken, otherwise no one knows who is going to be next, and this practice will continue."

Since their abduction, the five men have been repeatedly accused on social media, and in some mainstream outlets, of committing blasphemy, a crime that carries a judicial death sentence and, increasingly commonly, the threat of extrajudicial murder by right-wing vigilantes.

The families of all five activists deny the blasphemy allegations.

Some of the rights activists calling for the release of the disappeared men were also later accused of blasphemy.

At least one protest calling for the men's release was attacked by stone-throwing right-wing counter-protesters on January 19.

Asim Saeed's family were forced to relocate from their home on Thursday, after receiving death threats via telephone based on the blasphemy allegations.

"[The caller] said that he would kill me and also kill [Asim's] children, and then burn our house down," said a family member, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Saeed is one of the three activists whose whereabouts remain unknown.

At least 68 people have been murdered in relation to blasphemy allegations in Pakistan since 1990, according to an Al Jazeera tally.

New Baylor lawsuit alleges 52 rapes by football players in four-year period

Plaintiff alleging 2013 attack by two players calls out ‘culture of sexual violence’ but president says school has made ‘great progress’ since scandal began

 Former Baylor president Ken Starr seen before an NCAA college football game in Waco, Texas. Photograph: LM Otero/AP

Associated Press in Waco, Texas-Saturday 28 January 2017

A former Baylor University student who says she was raped by two football players filed a federal lawsuit on Friday against the school that alleges there were dozens more assaults of women involving other players.

The lawsuit by the student, who is listed in the documents only as “Elizabeth Doe”, alleges at least 52 rapes by more than 30 football players over a four-year period.

It also alleges a “culture of sexual violence” and describes her alleged 2013 attack by two players. It doesn’t detail the other alleged attacks, but says some were recorded by the players, who shared them with friends.

Fifty-two assaults would dramatically increase the 17 reports of sexual and physical attacks involving 19 players since 2011 previously acknowledged by Baylor officials.

The school faces at least five lawsuits from women who allege they were attacked and that the school failed to protect them or ignored their complaints.

The nation’s largest Baptist university has been gripped by the ongoing scandal that led to the firing of football coach Art Briles and the departure of school president Ken Starr in 2016.

An internal investigation last year found that the football program operated as if it was “above the rules” and that assistant coaches and staff interfered or stifled investigations into alleged assaults by players.

Baylor allowed Briles’ staff of assistants to remain for the 2016 season but new coach Matt Rhule has not retained them. Some have moved to new jobs, including Briles’ son and former offensive coordinator Kendal Briles to Florida Atlantic, and defensive coordinator Phil Bennett to Arizona State.

In a statement, Baylor president David Garland said the university had made “great progress” in fortifying security measures since the sexual assault scandal erupted last year.

“Baylor University has taken unprecedented actions that have been well documented in response to the issue of past and alleged sexual assaults involving our campus community,” Garland said.

“We have made great progress in implementing 105 recommendations to strengthen the safety and security of all students and restore faith in the university.”

The statement did not specifically address the allegations in the new lawsuit.

In the lawsuit filed on Friday, the woman alleges being raped by two players in 2013. The attack was reported to Waco police but no charges were filed and the players were allowed to stay on the team at the time.

According to the lawsuit, campus officials did not investigate her case until 2015. One of the players involved was suspended from the team and later expelled. The other had transferred.

The lawsuit alleges the football program operated under a “show ’em a good time” policy that “used sex to sell” Baylor to high school recruits.

The woman was a member of a campus group called the Baylor Bruins that would host prospective athletes during visits. The lawsuit alleges Baylor encouraged making Baylor Bruins available for sex with recruits, as well as taking recruits to strip clubs, implied promises of sex and using alcohol and drugs in the recruiting process.

Art Briles’ attorney Ernest Cannon denied the program culture described in the lawsuit.

“If they were doing that it would be terrible, but they weren’t doing that. Art wasn’t involved in anything like that,” Cannon said.

“Lawyers have great imaginations when money is involved. It’s really sad.”

You're more likely to catch flu after a cold snap, study says

Don't believe this about the flu 01:21
By Amanda MacMillan, Health.com-Tue January 24, 2017

Cases of flu are on the rise, according to a recent statement from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and experts are warning that this year's flu season will be worse than last.

Now, a new study published in the Journal of Clinical Virology is shedding some light on exactly how cold weather and the spread of viruses are linked.

It turns out, seasonal flu outbreaks first appear each year about a week after the winter's first cold spell -- or at least that's what happened in Sweden, over the course of three years when researchers tracked weather patterns and the prevalence of the virus.

During that time, researchers collected more than 20,000 nasal swabs from people seeking medical care in and around the city of Gothenburg, and analyzed them for influenza A and other respiratory viruses. Then they compared those findings with weather data from the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute.

A surprisingly consistent pattern emerged: Each year, the first really cold week -- with low humidity and temperatures below freezing -- seemed to trigger the spread of flu.

10 Ways You May Put Yourself at Risk for Flu (Without Realizing It!)

"We believe that this sudden drop in temperature contributes to 'kickstart' the epidemic," said lead author Nicklas Sundell, a researcher at Sahlgrenska Academy and infectious diseases specialist at Sahlgrenska University Hospital, in a press release. "Once the epidemic has started, it continues even if temperatures rise. Once people are sick and contagious, many more may become infected."

Airborne particles containing liquid and virus -- from a sneeze, for example -- can spread more easily in cold and dry weather, say the study authors. Dry air absorbs moisture from the particles, shrinking them and helping them stay in the air longer and travel longer distances.

The study found that some other common respiratory infections, such as respiratory syncytial virus and coronavirus, followed similar, temperature-driven patterns. But others, like rhinovirus (one cause of the common cold), did not seem to be affected by the weather or season.

10 Biggest Myths About the Flu

Sundell said that better knowledge of outbreaks based on weather may help doctors and public health experts know what's coming -- and communicate those risks to the public.

"If you can predict the start of the annual epidemics of the flu and other respiratory viruses, you can use this knowledge to promote campaigns for the flu vaccine," he said. Hospital emergency departments could also prepare in advance, he added, for increased numbers of sick patients.

Of course, cold weather isn't the only prerequisite for flu epidemics to take off. "The virus [also] has to be present among the population, and there have to be enough people susceptible to the infection," Sundell explained.

And the flu obviously still spreads in climates that are warm year-round, says Nirav Patel, MD, assistant professor of infectious diseases at Saint Louis University, who was not involved in the new study.

"Clearly then, the temperature drop is important, but perhaps not the only factor," Dr. Patel told Health via email.

He also points out that the study was only able to show a correlation between weather and flu timing in one particular region. "We'd need to see this replicated in other climate areas to assess whether this is a consistent phenomenon or is unique to influenza in Sweden," he wrote.

Still, he says the findings are "definitely intriguing, and should be explored further."

In the meantime, he'll continue recommending the same things he's always recommended for preventing the spread of flu -- regardless of the temperature outside: covering your mouth when coughing or sneezing, washing your hands frequently, and getting an annual flu shot.

‘Give Us Our Children Back’: Hunger Strikers in Sri Lanka Demand Answers

By DHARISHA BASTIANS and GEETA ANANDJAN. 26, 2017

COLOMBO, Sri Lanka — Seated on a platform outside a regional post office in Sri Lanka’s former war zone, about 150 miles north of the capital, Colombo, a mother whose son has been missing for seven years sobbed as she spoke.

“All we are asking for is for them to give us our children back. They took my child,” the aggrieved mother, Sangarappillai Vanalochini, said in an interview widely viewed on television and social media in Sri Lanka this week.

For four days, Ms. Vanalochini has refused food and water, joining 13 other people on a hunger strike in the northern town of Vavuniya, only a few miles away from the center of some of the most brutal fighting during Sri Lanka’s 26-year civil war, which ended in 2009.

She and the others fasting are trying to force the government to investigate what happened to family members who disappeared during the conflict in which Tamil Tiger rebels fought for a separate state for the Tamil minority in the island nation’s north and east.

The condition of the hunger strikers grew so grave on Thursday that Sri Lanka’s state defense minister, Ruwan Wijewardene, flew from the capital to meet them. The strikers agreed on Thursday evening to call off their fast after he promised in writing to ensure “a proper response on Feb. 9 through a meeting between the families of the disappeared and a delegation of government ministers and officials at the office of the prime minister,” said Ruki Fernando, an activist who has been in regular contact with the families.

If the response is not satisfactory at that meeting, “the families have said they will restart a larger fast unto death,” he said. The state defense minister could not immediately be reached for comment.

The government under the former president, Mahinda Rajapaksa, defeated the Tamil rebels, ending the civil war in a surge of violence. Amnesty International estimates that 60,000 to 100,000 people are still missing from two communist insurgencies and the long war with the Tamil Tiger rebels.

The current president, Maithripala Sirisena, was elected to office in a stunning upset in 2015, to a great extent on the promise of promoting justice and reconciliation, including an investigation into the disappearances during the war. But little progress has been made in the two years since he took office.

Human rights groups say that many of the thousands who disappeared were abducted by military units and paramilitary groups, while some who surrendered to government forces at the end of the conflict never came home.

Canagasabapathy Viswa-lingam Wigneswaran, the chief minister for the Tamil-majority Northern Province, said in a letter to Mr. Sirisena this week that the Tamil people had placed “tremendous expectations and hope” in Mr. Sirisena in 2015 and helped to elect him to office.

“Those hopes seem to be eroding in recent times,” he said in the letter.

A Tamil member of Parliament, S. Sivamohan, said that Tamils had grown increasingly frustrated at the lack of progress. He noted that the Sirisena government passed a law to set up a permanent office last August to investigate disappearances. But six months later, the office has yet to be constituted.

“All the initiatives of the government remain on paper, there has been nothing evident in practice,” Dr. Sivamohan said.

A spokesman for Mr. Sirisena declined to comment.

Mr. Fernando, the activist, said that the strikers had expressed deep frustration at the beginning of their fast, and that years of protests, petitions, complaints and testimony had yielded nothing.

“If the government is serious about postwar reconciliation, it’s time to move beyond rhetoric,” he said.

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