Monday, June 13, 2016

Was NASA Technology Predicted by King Ravana of Lanka

Is it possible that ancient cultures 7000 years ago knew how to create flying machines to traverse the sky and beyond using a technology that NASA engineers are still trying to harness today?

by Martina Redpath

( June 13, 2016, Boston, Sri Lanka Guardian) The first artificial satellite launched famously into orbit was the Russian satellite Sputnik, in 1957. Prior to this, rockets had been used to launch missiles for warfare. The first rocket able to fly high enough to get into space was the German A4/V-2 rocket family launched in 1942. Considering early powered flight and early models of the aeroplane these advances still only date back to the beginning of the 20^th century. However there are many books and websites which forcefully and passionately assert that technologically advanced aircraft and spacecraft were in common use over the Indian subcontinent thousands of years ago. These same sources claim that advanced space propulsion techniques being researched by NASA are in fact directly inspired by ancient flying machines.

Flying Vimanas, is this inspiration for current NASA technology? Seriously? (Image credit: Wikimedia Commons)

Could these amazing stories be true? The answer will be obvious to anyone with any knowledge of science or history but let us try to look at the claims as fairly as we can.

In Hindu mythology, demon King Ravana of Lanka (ancient Sri Lanka) brought to the country something called the Pushpaka Vimãna. Vimãna literally means to traverse or to measure. Other uses of the word refer to a temple or a flying machine. The Pushpaka Vimãna is thought to be King Ravana’s flying palace which was shaped like a giant peacock. Every country has their myths and legends. In Ireland, Finn McCool is a familiar character in ancient stories. So where does fiction meet fact? How is this ancient flying machine relevant to today?

Ten-headed King Ravana, inventor of ancient flying machines? (Image credit: Wikimedia Commons)

Some say that “ancient scriptures” tell of these ancient aeronauts, but there is no record of these documents prior to the last century. A publication called the Vaimãnika Shastra or theScience of Aeronautics, is a 20^th century text written by one Subbaraya Shastry sometime between 1918-1923. However the information provided in this book is believed to have been obtained by psychic channelling with the ancient Saint Bharadvaja. Subbaraya Shastry was believed to have contracted leprosy. He left his home and spent nine years living in the forest. During this time he is supposed to have spoken with the ancient saint (sage Bharadvaja) and was enlightened with this new found knowledge of flying machines. He later returned home (as he also had been cured of leprosy), but Shastry could not read or write so he dictated his new knowledge over the period of 5 years,( 25 years after the psychic experience itself). The dictated text was apparently discovered in 1952 by G.R Josyer who later translated it into English in 1973. This publication contains eight chapters claiming that ancient vimãnas from the King Ravana legend were actually feasible flying machines, perhaps even similar in ability to rockets. The text indicates that propulsion was provided using rotating gyroscopes of electricity and mercury.

The existing text is said to only be a small section of larger (lost) works. It aims to provide information to pilots on the secrets of hearing and destroying enemy planes at the same time remaining motionless, unbreakable and invisible. According to American author David Hatcher Childress (born 1957), another ancient Indian piece of work that he decoded,Samarangana Sutradhara reveals that these ancient flying vimãnas, referred to in ‘Vaimãnika Shastra’ were powered by the metal mercury. He states in the text is says “By means of the power latent in the mercury which sets the driving whirlwind in motion, a man sitting inside may travel a great distance in the sky…” This powerplant is referred to as a “mercury vortex engine”.

The ‘Vaimãnika Shastra’ although dubbed an ancient text in reality was written less than 100 years ago. It was supposedly dictated by psychically channelling an ancient saint; however it was written almost 25 years after the author actually had the experience. The author was believed to be a leper, spending years in isolation. Coincidentally in history, a treatment solution for leprosy was mercury. Perhaps this was inspiration for the fuel of the vimãnas? American author David Hatcher Childress has published over 200 books mostly on unusual topics such as ancient astronauts and the lost city of Atlantis, however Childress’ works have been criticised by historical archaeologists for being factually incorrect. He is also the owner of a publishing house and no doubt mysterious topics gather more interest in sales.

A study by the aeronautical and mechanical engineering department at the Indian Institute of Science in 1974, referred to the crafts as “poor concoctions” and the crafts themselves were unfeasible for flight. The text also does not explain how the vimãnas actually get up into the air and the information appears as though the author has knowledge of some modern machinery (that is to say modern for the early 1900s), yet there appears to be little to no understanding of aeronautics. The illustrations provided were based upon the text, and are more comparable to steampunk flying machines. So despite the fact that these creations are masquerading as ancient designs, in truth this is far from the reality.

NASA ion engine testing for deep space craft. (Image credit: NASA)

NASA (and other research organisations) have been experimenting with the ion propulsion concept since the 1950s. In an ion propulsion engine, the gas is held in a chamber surrounded by magnets. An electrical charge causes the atoms to lose electrons, therefore turning them into ions. As the ionised gas jet is expelled out of the craft, it is then propelled in the opposite direction.In the 1970s when this technology was being trialled in earthbound laboratories, mercury or caesium was used as propellant. Mercury is liquid at room temperature and caesium is a solid. Therefore, they were both relatively easy to store. In order to be used as a propellant both elements needed to be heated to become a gas.

Artist’s impression of the Dawn space craft travelling to asteroid Vesta (left) and Ceres (right). (Image credit: Wikimedia.org)

The problems arose when some of the gases condensed and leaked onto the ground. Caesium is radioactive, can be corrosive and is very dangerous. Mercury is also a neurotoxin and is thought to be one of the more dangerous metals and exposure to it can cause various health problems. After determining that both these elements were much too toxic and dangerous to use, scientists turned to using Xenon, an odourless, colourless gas which is generally unreactive. This futuristic idea was used on the Dawn spacecraft. This craft was launched in 2007 and travelled towards the asteroid belt using ion propulsion engines visiting Vesta. It is intended to reach the dwarf planet Ceres located in the asteroid belt in February of 2015. These experiments by NASA in the 1970s may have been the inspiration for the legend that NASA is trying to build space vehicles pushed along by the mercury vortex engines of legend.

So despite claims that ancient scholars were aware of flying machines that used mercury as a propellant, this not something which NASA are harnessing today. Although ion engines using mercury were tested in the past they are not in use now. Equally the ancient text explaining the science of aeronautics is really not that ancient at all as it was written less than 100 years ago and doesn’t actually explain the science of how to actually get into the air. In terms of myths and legends the story of the flying peacock seems like a great one but in reality there are no mercury vortex engines and especially not ones from the era of King Ravana.

A stylised artist’s impression of the Dawn spacecraft with Ceres (created before the mission reached the dwarf planet). Ion propulsion takes a little longer than other methods to manoeuvre into orbit. (image credit: NASA/JPL)

(The writer , Senior Education Support Officer)

Ancient Sri Lanka: Pushpaka Vimana of Ravana

by D K Hari and D K Hema Hari

( June 13, 2015, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian ) The word Vimana comprises of Vi, “the sky” and Mana, meaning, “measure”.Vimana is one that measures the sky as it traverses through it. Indian legends have many stories of Vimana.

By far, the most popular of them is that of Pushpaka Vimana which was used by Rama to return from Lanka to Ayodhya along with Sita, after vanquishing Ravana.

Pushpaka Vimana

ThePushpaka Vimana was the one in which Vibhishana, the then crowned King of Lanka, brought Rama and the entire entourage to Ayodhya. This particular Pushpaka Vimana which was in the Airport hangar of Ravana, originally belonged to Ravana’s step brother, Kubera, from whom Ravana took it.

The six airports of Ravana

Ravana had many Vimana in his aero plane hangar. In fact, Ravana had six airports in his kingdom of Lanka. They being,

1. Weragantota in Mahiyangana -In the Sinhalese language, this word means a place for an aircraft to land.

2. Thotupola Kanda at Hoton Plains–The word Thotupola means a port, a place that one touches during one’s journey. Kanda means rock. Thotupola Kanda is a flat land over a rocky range at a height of 6000 feet from sea level. So this means that it could only have been a port of call for a transport vehicle that could travel in air. So it must have been an airport and not a sea port. The present airport of Sri Lanka at Colombo, is called Videsha Bandaranayake Guwan Thotupola in Sinhala where again Guwan means air and Thotupola means port.

3. Usangoda on the southern coast

4. Wariyapola in Kurunegala

5. Wariyapola in Mattale – the word Wariyapola is said to have been derived fromWatha-ri-ya-pola meaning place for landing and takeoff of aircrafts.

6. Gurulupotha in Mahiyangana – the word Gurulupotha in Sinhalese means parts of birds, indicating this to be an aircraft hangar or repair centre.

Lanka – A land of many Vimana

Apart from the Pushpaka Vimana, Ravana owned many other Vimana too. Ravana probably used these Vimana to travel to different parts of Lanka as well as outside Lanka.This is also borne out by the following sloka in the Valmiki Ramayana.

Rama tells Lakshmana, as they fly over Lanka in the Pushpaka Vimana, after the victory over Ravana.

Lanka shines on the earth

Studded with many Vimana

As if it is the capital of Vishnu

Covered with white clouds.

Valmiki Ramayana, Yuddha Khanda, Sarga 20

Dandu Monara Vimana

Model of Dandu Monara Vimana

The one other well mentioned Vimana that was used by Ravana, is Dandu Monara. In the local Sinhalese language. Monara means Mayura, peacock and Dandu Monara means “that which can fly resembling a peacock”.

Galle Face Hotellnsignia

The story of Ravana flying in Vimana with his wife Mandodari is etched as the insignia in the most famous hotel, Galle Face Hotel of Colombo, Sri Lanka.

Vaimanika Shastra

The texts like Ramayana and other Puranic texts speak about the stories ofVimana. The technical details on Vimana is available in a few other texts of India. The more prominent among these is the Vaimanika Shastra written by MaharishiBharadwaja.

In writing this treatise, Maharishi Bharadwaja states that he was only compiling information available at his time for various Vimana and that most of them were prior to his times. He mentions about 120 different Vimana that were there in different times in different lands. He also gives glimpses of fuels used, aeronautics, avionics, metallurgy and other maneuvers that were deployed in flying theseVimana. In the late 19th century, a scholar from near Mysore, Anekal Subbaraya Shastry happened to come across these texts which he translated into English titled, “Vymaanika- Shaastra Aeronautics”. The details given in this book have opened up many vistas into insights into flying machines of yore. It is now for the coming generation to take a leaf out of these texts, the puranic legends and the applicability situation in present days, research on the content and see what lessons can be learnt for present and future application in the field of metallurgy, power transmission, power generational and aeronautical sciences.

More on Vimana is mentioned in our book is mentioned in our book, “Ramayana in Lanka”, and “Historical Rama” which are a part of the Bharath Gyan Series.

The authors D K Hari and D K Hema Hari are founders of Bharath Gyan who have written 10 books and 2 films.

Painting in a refugee camp, dreaming of the sea

Linda Paganelli-13 June 2016

“The project was about symbolizing the refugees living in the camp as fish,” artist Alaa Albaba says of a recent series of paintings.

Albaba takes up the Palestinian who lived on the coast before the Nakba — the ethnic cleansing of Palestine by Zionist militias ahead of the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948 — and wound up in a refugee camp, cut off and forbidden from accessing the sea.

The fish that thrashes after being removed from the water serves as a metaphor for life in overcrowded refugee camps.

Sardines packed in tins — like those distributed to refugees by relief agencies after 1948 — are another potent symbol.

Albaba lives in al-Amari refugee camp near the West Bank city of Ramallah. He was born there in 1984 — “the third generation of the family after the Nakba.” His family was expelled from Lydd, now in present-day Israel.

With so many pressing needs in the camp, where poverty and unemployment rates are high, and the infrastructure in need of maintenance, art wasn’t exactly a priority.

“But after a while, art became desirable in this place,” he says.

And there he works, painting fish dreaming of returning to the sea.

Linda Paganelli is a visual anthropologist based in Palestine.

UN expresses concern over targeted Bangladesh killings

UN Human Rights Commissioner Zeid bin Ra’ad Al- Hussein.

'United Nations has expressed concern at the "dramatic increase" in murders, including that of people belonging to religious minority groups'.

HAROON HABIB-June 13, 20

As Bangladesh reels under a spate of targeted killings, the United Nations has expressed concern at the “dramatic increase” in murders, including that of people belonging to religious minority groups. In a wide-ranging opening speech at the Human Rights Council in Geneva on Monday, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al-Hussein called for investigation and prosecution of the perpetrators.

“I am very concerned about the dramatic increase in number of brutal murders in Bangladesh that target freethinkers, liberals, religious minorities and LGBT activists,” he said, urging “all government officials, political and religious leaders to unequivocally condemn these attacks on freedom, and to do more to protect affected groups”.

Meanwhile, the government said categorically that Bangladesh does not need help from any foreign country or government to protect members of its minority communities.

Dhaka alleges conspiracy

Addressing a press conference on Monday, Information Minister Hasanul Haq Inu claimed that attacks on people belonging to minority communities are part of a conspiracy “to embarrass the government”. The Minister was replying to a question on a news item circulated by Press Trust of India (PTI) that said that “two leaders from Bangladesh’s Hindu community” had sought assistance from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The Minister claimed that the government’s tough stance has already ensured the rights of religious minority groups, adding: “The government is working to maintain harmony. Pujas are celebrated alongside Eid. They [minorities] can practise their faith because the government is providing security.” “So I don’t believe there is a need to urge the leader of a neighbouring country for ensuring security.”

Since the beginning of a crackdown on terrorists and extremists on Friday, law enforcement officials have arrested a total of 5,287 people, of which 85 have suspected militant links.

Why Brussels Wants to Block Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipeline From Russia

The United States and institutions of the European Union are continuing to pressure Gazprom’s partners in Europe over the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

Nord Stream gas pipeline launched in Germany

Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipeline May Play Key Role in German Energy Security

13.06.2016

German Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel said that the project will be implemented if three requirements are met. The first is that the pipeline complies with existing EU norms. The second is that Nord Stream 2 does not have negative effect on gas transit via Ukraine. And the third that it does not impede gas supplies in Eastern Europe.

Gabriel insisted that Berlin sees Nord Stream 2 in terms of economic, not politics.

Among those trying to undermine the initiative are gas transit countries which risk losing billions if the pipeline is built.

Previously, Germany expressed interest in Nord Stream 2. According to the operator company of the project, transportation cost through Nord Stream 2 would be 50 percent less than via Ukraine. This would easily cover the construction costs estimated at €8 billion.

Gabriel’s words reflect contradictions over the pipeline between German stakeholders and Brussels’ policy, Alexander Pasechnik, senior analyst at the Russian National Energy Security Fund, told Svobodnaya Pressa.

"Germany acts with a careful eye to the EU. It’s obvious that Gabriel wants to support German companies but he also wants to avoid political tensions with Brussels. Thus, his announcement is neutral," Pasechnik said.

According to the expert, Germany wants to defend its interests but does not want a rift with Brussels and the United States.

However, the project has fallen victim to European political games, especially amid the Ukrainian crisis, he added.

"This is all about politics. On the one hand, the reason is russophobic among European officials. Another reason is that Brussels doesn’t want Russia to dominate the European energy market. Meanwhile, Gazprom never said it wanted 50 percent or more in the market," Pasechnik said.

A worker of Russian gas and oil giant Gazprom

Poland Unlikely to Extend Long-Term Gas Contracts With Russia After 2022

The Nord Stream-2 project presumes building two pipeline strings, with a total capacity of 55 billion cubic meters of gas a year, from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea.

An agreement on Nord Stream-2, involving the expansion of the Nord Stream gas pipeline, was signed in early-September 2014, during the Eastern Economic Forum in Russia’s Vladivostok. The new consortium was established by Gazprom, E.ON, Shell, BASF/Wintershall, OMV and Engie. Gazprom holds 50 percent of shares while the others own 10 percent each.

In December 2015, Gazprom said Nord Stream-2 is expected for launch in the fourth quarter of 2019.

One of the main goals of the planned pipeline is to cut reliance on Ukraine in delivering Russian gas to Europe.

"The requirement about Ukraine is political. None of European laws and regulations requires this. In fact, the issue is purely commercial. Russia’s transit agreement with Ukraine expires in 2020, and Moscow may not prolong it," Konstantin Simonov, head of the National Energy Security Fund, told the Russian newspaper Vzglyad.

According to him, Europe accuses Russia of making political requirements while it is doing the same.

"If Ukrainian transit is a political matter Brussels should not accuse Russia of politicizing it. But this is a commercial issue Russia observes the terms of the contract," he pointed out.

EU Shows Double Standards in Regard to Nord Stream-2 Project

Ukraine may remain part of the transit route for Russian gas if Europe dramatically increases consumption, Sergei Pravosudov, head of the Institute for National Energetics, told Svobodnaya Pressa.

If the EU increases consumption then Ukrainian gas transportation system will be needed for stable shipments. However, in 2015, Russia increased gas supplies to Europe and Turkey only by eight percent. Currently, this scenario is unlikely.

What is more, if Brussels abandons Nord Stream 2 it would have to deal with transit via Ukraine. The Ukrainian transit system is in poor condition. And the EU doesn’t want to invest in it, Pravosudov said.

According to him, Russia remains the only stable and reliable energy partner for European countries. Despite tensions and sanctions, European energy firms want to work in Gazprom, like in the example of Nord Stream 2.

How to Contain Libya’s New Warlord

BY TAREK MEGERISI-JUNE 6, 2016

Libya is already a mess, but things may be about to take a serious turn for the worse. Only a few months have passed since the United Nations helped Libyans to cobble together a unity government that was supposed to end the country’s two-year civil war. Yet now that faint hope of stability is threatening to vanish — and the result could be an even broader conflict, one that might even ultimately lead to partition.

The reason is simple. In their rush to create a new government that might restore a modicum of stability, Libya’s ostensible friends in the international community overlooked one big obstacle: General Khalifa Haftar and his motley band of Qaddafi-era soldiers and militias known as the Libyan National Army (LNA).

Haftar is an odd and much misunderstood piece in the wider Libyan puzzle. Behind him stands a collection of various political and community leaders who have much to gain by aligning themselves with him — even if only temporarily. The general also enjoys quite a bit of genuine popular support, mainly in the eastern province of Cyrenaica but to some extent nationwide.

Haftar has consistently rejected the internationally backed Government of National Accord (GNA) and the militia army loyal to it. His chief of staff recently upped the ante by threatening to “liberate” (read: invade) Tripoli from a nearby town. At the same time, Haftar’s forces — under the guise of combating Islamic State, which has been expanding its presence in Libya — have deployed themselves around Cyrenaica’s oil fields, a move widely interpreted as a prelude to seizing control of them. Meanwhile, his political allies have been trying to sell the oil already under their control independently on the world market, and have even printed their own currency with the help of the Russians. (Meanwhile, the Central Bank in Tripoli, which is loyal to the unity government, uses a company based in Great Britain to print Libyan dinars.)

Haftar and his allies are, in short, exacerbating the country’s existing political divide. A spate of recent kidnappings of the general’s critics in territory under his control in Benghazi and Tobruk, as well as the prominence of Qaddafi-era personalities and secret police operatives in his administration, offer clues about the type of state he aims to form.

One can understand Haftar’s popularity only by considering the circumstances that have allowed him to reinvent himself. In the aftermath of the 2011 revolution, various Islamist groups who had been heavily persecuted by Qaddafi exploited the power vacuum to take revenge on their enemies. Benghazi and large swathes of Cyrenaica came under a sustained assassination campaign as former members of the security and judicial services, and many others, fell victim to horrible attacks. Shootings in mosques, sniper attacks, and car bombs paralyzed the entire region. The transitional authorities did little more than to offer fatuous advice on improving security (such as telling people in Benghazi to look under their cars with a stick every morning). Extremist groups with links to the Al-Qaeda-allied Jabhat al-Nusra, and later the Islamic State, exploited the insecurity to gain a foothold.

Enter Haftar, who in 2014 launched a military campaign against the Islamists he called “Operation Dignity.” His forces allowed officers and soldiers of the old army to strike back against their foes. The offensive was hampered by the lack of a tangible enemy or clear objectives, ultimately prompting a once-fractious collection of Islamist, extremist, and vehemently anti-Qaddafi militias to bury their differences and unite against the new threat.

Haftar is a controversial figure. He stands accused of committing war crimes during his command of Qaddafi’s war on Chad in the 1980s; in the years that followed he forged an opaque relationship with the Washington security establishment. Despite all this, though, his Operation Dignity was embraced by large segments of the Libyan population, who viewed him as the only person capable of defying the forces of chaos.It’s an old political truth that decisiveness in a period of anarchy is a sure path to popular support.

Two years later, the general’s popularity remains strong. Having seized control of Benghazi and other areas, he has shown that he can return a semblance of stability and peace, an immensely appealing achievement to a population that has suffered five years of near-continuous warfare. Haftar, indeed, is the only person in Libya’s new political elite who can boast such an accomplishment — regardless of how tenuous his victory may be, or how much outside support it took to achieve. The heavy military support provided to the general by Egypt and the Gulf, as well as the frontline presence of French Special Forces assisting his troops, are perhaps Libya’s worst kept secret. He can also claim the loyalty of many officers of the old army, though a significant number of veterans reject him and his methods.

But Haftar may not be quite the force for stability that he claims. Until very recently his camp was showing signs of fragmentation, both politically and militarily; there are many reasons to suppose that his supporters are much less cohesive than they may at first seem.

If the unity government wants to show that it can do a better job, it should start by creating a truly unified army. The GNA’s recent appointment of Mahdi al-Barghathi, one of Haftar’s previous commanders, to the post of defense minister, sets a good example of what needs to be done. The troops of the Qaddafi-era army, who were regarded with suspicion by the dictator and systematically neglected in favor of elite units commanded by his sons, remain the best foundation for a modern and genuinely national army. Rather than attempting to build on them, though, the unity government has relied on a ragtag assortment of existing militias. The same strategy was pursued by the GNA’s predecessors, and it is destined to fail for the same reasons that these earlier attempts did: these militias are loyal only to themselves, not to any civilian administration, and they are correspondingly useless as a fighting force.

The unity government should be doing everything it can to assure the populace that it is the surest path to stability and prosperity. Instead, unable to extend its influence beyond relatively small fiefdoms in Tripoli and Misrata, the GNA has been focusing on cultivating its international image. Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj, in power for two months, has spent the majority of his time abroad; he has yet to even visit Cyrenaica. GNA officialstout their presumed success in concluding lucrative deals with outside investors, but their hype makes for a sharp contrast with the lack of progress toward establishing an effective administration or genuine security. The GNA’s inability to distinguish itself from previous transitional administrations is leading an already suspicious population to trust in the devil they know (Haftar) rather than risk supporting yet another weak government that is heavy on rhetoric and light on substance.

Even so, Haftar’s success shows that political reinvention is possible in today’s Libya. Unity government officials should visit the East and engage with the people there to show that they have a genuinely national outlook. They should ensure that the funding they’ve promised to Cyrenaica’s local governments actually reaches its intended recipients — something that is currently by no means a given. GNA officials should also work harder to provide communities with services and supplies, including medicine and even generators (to cope with the endemic shortage of electricity), in order to prove that they’re better capable of providing for the beleaguered population than Haftar.

Haftar is a man whose popularity is a direct product of Libya’s post-revolutionary vacuum of leadership. Confronting him — be it rhetorically, militarily, or with the much repeated threat of sanctions — will only reinforce his position while casting the GNA as just another faction in the country’s continuing power struggles rather than as a genuine national government. The unity government should instead focus on giving the population the security and public services it so desperately desires. If it can do this, the Haftar problem will solve itself.

Photo credit: KHALIL MAZRAAWI/AFP/Getty Images

EU referendum: leave takes six-point lead in Guardian/ICM polls

Phone and online polls show support for Brexit growing to 53%, with proportion backing remain campaign falling to 47%

Support for leaving the EU is now running at 53% in a blow to David Cameron, George Osborne and the Labour party. Photograph: Phil Noble/Reuters

Tom Clark-Monday 13 June 2016

Support for leaving the EU is strengthening, with phone and online surveys reporting a six-point lead, according to a pair of Guardian/ICM polls.

Leave now enjoys a 53%-47% advantage once “don’t knows” are excluded, according to research conducted over the weekend, compared with a 52%-48% split reported by ICM a fortnight ago.

The figures will make grim reading for David Cameron, George Osborne and the Labour party. They follow a fortnight in which immigration became the dominant issue in the referendum campaign, with the publication of official figures showing that net migration had risen to a near-record 333,000 in 2015.

Prof John Curtice of Strathclyde University, who analyses available referendum polling data on his website whattheukthinks.org, noted that after the ICM data, the running average “poll of polls” would stand at 52% for leave and 48% for remain, the first time leave has been in such a strong position.

“These results are consistent with the generality of numbers over the last couple of weeks, in which there has been some weakening in the remain position,” he said. “It was already plain that this race was far closer than the prime minister intended and he must now be feeling discomfort at the thought that the outcome really could be in doubt.”

Throughout the long campaign, internet surveys have pointed to a close race. But the remain camp had been able to take heart from more traditional telephone polls, which have tended to show them enjoying a double-digit lead.

That appears to have changed recently. Two weeks ago, ICM reported for the first time that leave had taken the lead in one of its phone polls.

Under the surface, the proportion of voters who remain undecided is dwindling, in possible evidence of the hardening of attitudes towards EU membership.

In ICM’s telephone fieldwork in particular, 13% of respondents were indicating uncertainty about how they would vote a fortnight ago, but that figure has now fallen to 6%. Online, 7% say they don’t know, down from 9% two weeks ago.

There are also signs that Conservative infighting, which has characterised the referendum campaign, is now hurting the party in the Westminster stakes. The Tories are down two points on the month in the long-running Guardian/ICM telephone poll series, at 34%, only one point ahead of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party, which gains one on the month to reach 33%.

However, the referendum is not producing a sustained Ukip surge: Nigel Farage’s party sinks by one point from the previous poll, to 14%. The Liberal Democrats climb two to 9% and the Greens also pick up two, reaching 5%. The Scottish National party and Plaid Cymru remain on 4% and 1% respectively. Other minor parties are unchanged at 1%.

In its experimental online voting intention series, ICM puts the Conservatives ahead on 34%, Labour on 30%, Ukip on 19%, the Lib Dems on 8%, with the SNP and the Greens both on 4%, and assorted others with 1%.

The mood at Westminster has recently turned, especially bleak among Labour MPs concerned that the party’s arguments for remaining in Europe are not connecting with its voters. The latest telephone poll suggests that remain is still the preferred choice of Labour voters, by 58% to 38%.

However, this balance is not sufficiently emphatic to overpower the combination of a slight 49%-47% margin for leave among the Tories, and a crushing 97% to 2% preference for leave among Ukip supporters.

Breaking down the population between generations confirms that Eurosceptism sets in with age: among the young, aged 18 to 34, the balance is 56% to 39% for remain, whereas pensioners of 65 and over lean the other way, by 55% to 39%.

Voters in professional “AB” grade occupations are strongly in favour of staying inEurope (57%-38%), whereas skilled manual workers (C2s) are plumping for leave by an emphatic 67% to 29% margin.

ICM Unlimited interviewed a random sample of 1,000 adults by telephone between 10 and 13 June 2016. ICM separately interviewed 2,001 adults aged 18 and over online between 10 and 13 June 2016. In both cases, interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules

How a quiet, wonky lawyer became South Africa’s corruption-buster

By Krista Mahr June 13 at 6:19 AM

JOHANNESBURG — It’s not every day that a constitutional lawyer gets treated like a rock star. But at South African President Jacob Zuma’s State of the Union address in February, reporters jostled to hear what Thulisile Madonsela had to say about it, and onlookers took to Twitter to gush about her and her canary-yellow dress.

“Please, can we have her as president!” one pleaded.

Madonsela is not just a lawyer. She is South Africa’s public protector, an ombudsman-like post that has come to symbolize for many a struggle for rule of law and better governance in this young democracy.

During her seven-year term, which ends in October, the soft-spoken Madonsela has endured personal attacks and intimidation as the public face of an office investigating allegations of misconduct, abuse of power and shoddy administration at every level of government, including the presidency. But her tenacity and success have also restored a vital sense of optimism in a country that many worry has veered off course 22 years after its first free elections.

“For the system to work, people have to believe it works,” said Pierre de Vos, a professor of constitutional law at the University of Cape Town. “She has made people believe the public protector is someone you can trust. In a country where people are cynical about institutions, that’s a very big thing.”

Since the African National Congress sailed to power in the 1994 polls, the party that helped liberate South Africa from white minority rule and apartheid has retained deep voter loyalty. But it is also showing signs of disarray.

Infighting has burst into the open, with veterans of the freedom struggle openly calling for Zuma, the party leader, to step down. Politicians and business leaders have been accused in recent months of trying to wield inappropriate influence over government. With the economy slowing and unemployment at 26.7 percent, the gap between the political elite and poorer South Africans seems increasingly stark.

[This data confirms South Africa’s ruling party initially ignored mass protests]

Amid these uncertainties, Madonsela’s willingness to stand up to stalwarts of the ruling class has raised ordinary citizens’ hopes. When Zuma appointed her to the post — one of the so-called “Chapter 9” institutions written into the constitution to safeguard democracy — some wondered whether she would be tough enough to wake up the hitherto sleepy office. The powerful soon found out.

“They didn’t bargain for what they were going to be getting,” said David Lewis, executive director of Corruption Watch, a nonprofit civil society group. “I think she’s the most highly regarded public servant in the country.”

Madonsela was born in 1962 in Soweto, outside Johannesburg, 14 years before the uprising in the township that inspired widespread resistance to the apartheid regime. Her mother was a domestic worker and her father a laborer before they both began working in the informal economy. Her father was often harassed by police for lacking a license to run his business, she said in a 2014 interview with news channel eNCA, and would regularly represent himself in court.

“I think that may have spiked my interest in the law,” she said.

Madonsela became a successful lawyer, working in trade unions and eventually forgoing a Harvard scholarship to help draft South Africa’s post-apartheid constitution. She worked in the Department of Justice and was a commissioner at the South African Law Reform Commission before being appointed public protector in 2009.

“I didn’t think I was good enough” for the job, she told eNCA.

Today Madonsela, a single mother of two, is known widely as “Thuli” — a testament, perhaps, to her laid-back demeanor. She speaks quietly and listens carefully. She is exceedingly reserved but likes to tweet out inspirational advice: “If you walk steadily on the path you honestly believe is right, life will work with you.”

Most of the thousands of complaints her office deals with are filed by ordinary people who, for instance, have not received their pensions on time or whose government housing is falling apart. But the probe that has come to define her tenure — and perhaps her career — is referred to as Nkandla, the name of Zuma’s homestead.

In 2014, the public protector issued a report finding that Zuma had “unduly benefited” from public funds spent on non-security upgrades to the estate and that he should pay back some of the money.

He did not do so, and Parliament later absolved him from paying for the upgrades. Opposition parties took the matter to the nation’s highest court, which ruled in March that Zuma had failed to uphold the constitution by not heeding the report and that the public protector’s powers were legally binding.

Zuma has since apologized to the nation and said he will pay.

[South African President Jacob Zuma survives vote to oust him]

After the Nkandla report came out, “all hell broke loose,” Madonsela said during a brief interview last week. “It became, ‘Who are you to tell us what to do?’ ”

As the powers of her office came under scrutiny, Madonsela also came under personal attack. A local newspaper reported that the deputy minister of defense and military veterans, Kebby Maphatsoe,

suggested that Madonsela had a “handler” and that the Chapter 9 institutions had fallen under CIA influence. Madonsela’s office demanded — and got — an apology, although Maphatsoe said he had been “misunderstood.”

In April, Madonsela has said, she received a tip from a police informant that a gang boss in the southern part of the country had been paid about $50,000 to arrange a hit on her life. Her office confirmed she is under police protection.

Some critics also accuse her of seeking the media limelight and demonstrating professional bias.

“I feel she has gone out of her way to ridicule and embarrass the president,” said Khaya Xaba, spokesman for the Young Communist League of South Africa. (The South African Communist Party is part of the governing alliance.)

For her part, Madonsela says that while the government sometimes “drops the ball,” she doesn’t see South Africa as engaged in an entrenched battle over rule of law.

“It’s not really a culture of impunity,” she said. But, she added, “What you’d like to see is a situation where everyone is equal, everyone is subject to the law, and everyone is accountable for their actions, whether they are on good terms with the powers that be or on bad terms.”

The Constitutional Court’s March ruling on the Nkandla issue not only helped clarify the public protector’s powers but also helped thaw the chill created by her refusal to back down. “Since then, we’ve had more declarations of commitment to the constitution . . . more cordiality, even from Parliament,”

Madonsela said.

All of that could make her successor’s job easier. But it is crucial to ensure that person will also be somebody who does not wilt under pressure, observers say.

A parliamentary committee has started looking for candidates. The nomination process allows for public participation, and Corruption Watch has been encouraging people to pitch in.

Madonsela says her staff is well-prepared to carry on its work. Her deputy, Kevin Malunga, who has been nominated for the job, agreed. “This institution works as a team,” he said.

The question is, he said, “How do we keep that momentum?”

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Today’s coverage from Post correspondents around the world