The unfolding dimensions of recent developments in South China Sea

The South China Sea will be the area to watch in the coming years as the area will witness raising tensions, new alliances, military posturing and even some confrontations between fishing vessels, Coast Guard/Navy vessels and military/civil aircraft. The situation is fraught with danger.

by Commodore RS Vasan IN Retd.

( May 13, 2016, Chennai, Sri Lanka Guardian) The initialreaction of the USA to review its invitation to China to participate in the forthcoming RIMPAC could be seen as a response to the turning away of the request to dock an aircraft carrier in Hongkong earlier this month.

However, USA has invited China to join in the forthcoming edition of claimed to be the largest joint maritime military exercise in the world. This will also have elements of HADR and SAR besides military maneuvers. It has also been announced by the US Navy that there would be live firing of a Harpoon missile during the exercises sometime in July 2016. It is obvious to any naval analyst that in joint exercises of any form anywhere in the world, there is a continuous evaluation taking place of the “means and methods” used in the exercises by both sides. The type of vessels, sensors, weapons, levels of training, readiness of the ship’s system and the appearance, response and the body language of the crew manning these ships would always be under close scrutiny. USA would not have allowed such an opportunity to go by (to understand more about a potential adversary).China would also use the opportunity to assess their own capability during the exercise by sailing with the best in the world. Let there be no doubt that at the end of the RIMPAC there would be a complete analysis of the capability and potential of all the participating units that will go in to the data base and also in the tactical planning for counters and contingencies of the future on both sides.

In international relations, most countries will follow the twin track policy while dealing with emerging powers and possible adversaries. The economic, political and even military relations will continue on one track while the posturing on sensitive issues will go on at another level. The happenings in the SCS are demonstrative of this course adopted by USA in respect of China. USA has decided to undertake joint patrols with Philippines in the SCS. There has been a feeling that the USA has allowed things to drift in South China Sea and has given away the advantage to China by passivity thus allowing China to consolidate its gains in the South China Sea. The decision to undertake joint patrols to protect the freedom of navigation along with Philippines though delayed is to assure the traditional allies that USA will be with them in terms of containing the aggressive behaviour of China which considers the area with in the nine dash line as its own lake. China has invested heavily in building artificial Islands from reefs and rocks to have sea and air connectivity with the military hubs in the SCS. The cartographic aggression along with changes on the ground is in contravention of the provisions of UNCLOS and violative of the rule of law. The setting up of Radars, missiles and navigational facilities is clearly illustrative of the desire of China to buttress its claim in an environment that favours China.

China does not want to risk a war or confrontation with any of the claimants (or the super power USA) in the area knowing fully that such a misadventure will upset the apple cart of its progress and sustained development. China has also been constantly emphasizing on its desire for a peaceful periphery that would allow it to benefit from a no conflict scenario. This has hardly paid any dividends to the claimants in South China Sea who cannot challenge China militarily. This illusion of peaceful periphery has encouraged China to build on its naval potential and capability by creating additional infrastructure and facilities to support naval missions. The period of peace virtually on China’s terms has been used wisely to invest heavily in cutting edge technology,modernising its forces and restructuring of its military formations. The other claimants in the South China Sea who are small nations with hardly any military prowess do depend on US to support them. USA on its part has been vocal in supporting the concept of the freedom of the high seas and right to navigation. It has also undertaken these passages in these areas using military vessels to support the concept. China has considered these passages as provocative and has even warned USA of dire consequences. It is quite possible that the permission for the US Carrier to enter Hong Kong was denied to signal China’s unhappiness over the moves of US Naval units sailing through disputed areas. Such exchanges as in the past have the potential to lead to inadvertent accidents and avoidable situations.

China is banking on the reluctance of USA to get in to a direct confrontation particularly when the nation is in the campaign mode to elect a new president. The outgoing President Obama would not like to precipitate a direct confrontation in the SCS unless it is really very serious and would rather leave it to the new dispensation. The new President who would be in the Chair by end of the year would take some time to understand the nuances and full ramifications of the change of status quo in the SCS and ECS by direct intervention. So it is clear that time is on the side of China to consolidate its position in the South China Sea. Being in a position to mobilise its air assets and activate air defence measures, it could even contemplate declaring a new ADIZ area with in the nine dash line sometime this year.

Coming to the question of India’s responses, China is an extra regional player in the Indian Ocean; albeit with legitimate interests. India likewise is an extra regional power with equally legitimate interests in the South China Sea. The more than two decade old cooperation with Vietnam is resulting in a strategic dividend and India is upping the ante in its South China Sea initiatives. The ASEAN countries with rich cultural linkages with India are comfortable with the presence of India which has been seen as a benign functioning democracy though it has its own share of domestic problems to contend with.

The ASEAN as a forum has not been able to pass any strictures against China. The Code of Conduct promulgated in 2002 is barely working with China insisting on resolving all issues only by bilateral means and does not want any third party intervention let alone an International mediation. Thus, China was upset with the decision of Philippines to approach the International Court of Justice for resolving the maritime boundary disputes. Even before the verdict (which is expected to be in favour of Philippines) has been issued, China has said that it will not honour the verdict and is not a party to the dispute. Coincidentally, this verdict is also expected towards the end of this year when there would be a new President of USA in chair and the temperature is set to rise in the South China Sea dynamics.

In conclusion, the South China Sea will be the area to watch in the coming years as the area will witness raising tensions, new alliances, military posturing and even some confrontations between fishing vessels, Coast Guard/Navy vessels and military/civil aircraft. The situation is fraught with danger. However, the elections in USA provide some leeway for all players and particularly for China to prepare its contingencies. The verdict in the case of the maritime border disputes with Philippines which is also expected towards the end of this year is unlikely to ruffle the feathers of China as it will reinforce the view that China is a bully not given to following international norms. The policy makers and officials in Beijing have already shredded the undelivered verdict having vowed not to take cognizance of the either the dispute or the verdict.

The decision to invite China for RIMPAC notwithstanding the tensions in SCS is aimed at understanding the potential adversary better while simultaneously being perceived as an initiative to learn from each other in the art of war and raise the bar in HADRand SAR initiatives regionally in an area prone to natural and manmade disasters.

From the point of view of India, while seen as aligning itself with USA more and more, it is evident that it will retain its strategic autonomy but will continue to engage Vietnam and other ASEAN members at many levels to complement its act east policy. The strategic environment in the South China Sea will keep China tied up in knots and this favours India. The fact that the PLA-Navy will be bogged down in the SCS will dampen its IOR ambitions but only temporarily. But with eye on the long term strategic objectives in the Indian Ocean, China will continue with the Maritime Silk Route, China Pakistan Economic Corridor and also the Bangladesh China India Myanmar initiatives to gain access to Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal respecdtively through the sea routes. It will continue to woo India’s neighbours through the economic route with heavy investments and soft loans/grants. India will need to reshape its policies both in the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea to ensure that its own long term interests are protected.

Russia’s rigged elections

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev speaks with Russian human rights activist Ella Pamfilova in an office outside Moscow in Gorki on March 30, 2010. (DMITRY ASTAKHOV/AFP/Getty Images)

By Andrew Roth-May 14 at 11:46 AM

MOSCOW — From the fringes of power, Ella Pamfilova has spent decades fighting against the odds. As Russia’s first female candidate for president, she ran on a largely symbolic ticket against Vladimir Putin in 2000, earning just 1 percent of the vote. As Russia’s human rights ombudsman, she sought compromise between harried advocates and hidebound officials.

But as the newly appointed head of Russia’s Central Elections Commission, she faces an even more improbable task: ensuring that Russia’s notorious parliamentary elections this fall are free and fair.

The stakes are high. Russia’s last parliamentary elections, in 2011, descended into farce, as social media videos of ballot stuffing and accusations of mass voter fraud spawned the country’s largest pro-democracy and anti-Putin rallies in recent memory.

The difference now, Pamfilova said in an interview, is that Putin has given a mandate for clean elections. And she says she’s the proof.

“If there were not a political desire for normal, fair and open elections, then they would never choose a person like me, someone hard to work with who won’t play the subordinate,” she said over tea in a boardroom at Russia’s Central Elections Commission, adding that she thought Putin respected her for her forthrightness. “I never brought Putin pleasant questions. I always came with problems. And he knows my difficult character.”

 

Not everyone will accept that logic. Skeptics have dubbed her appointment a “rebranding,” an attempt to maintain the Kremlin’s electoral stranglehold while whitewashing the memory of her predecessor, Vladimir Churov. He was dubbed “the wizard,” for his white beard and uncanny ability to predict election results.

“The goal is not to hold fair elections as such, but to avoid protests of their results,” said Ekaterina Schulmann, a political scientist and a senior lecturer at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

Pamfilova shrugged off the criticism.

Bustling with energy, she mapped out a strategy of preventative measures and emergency interventions to curtail voter fraud ahead of the September elections, relying on force of will where the powers of her office were lacking. “Let them fear Pamfilova,” she said with relish, describing her handling of a recent wage dispute for elections workers in Rybinsk. In her telling, the main villains are local and regional officials seeking to massage the vote, not the Kremlin.

Former colleagues described her as an earnest and outspoken defender for victims of abuse, but also as a calculated political dealmaker and fervent advocate for gradual reform from within. She has shunned appeals to the West to exert influence on Russia, both on elections and human rights issues.

Tanya Lokshina, head of Human Rights Watch Russia and a longtime colleague, said that she trusted Pamfilova’s intentions but doubted her potential impact.

“Perhaps, like in the old days, she can achieve small victories, make a difference where she’s able to make a difference,” Lokshina said, referring to Pamfilova’s chairmanship of the Kremlin Human Rights Council beginning in 2002. “She is doomed in terms of ensuring free and fair elections in Russia, at least this time around. But it won’t be for lack of good will.”

 

A possible litmus test, the 2011 elections, reveals an official straddling the middle ground. Pamfilova was on academic fellowship at the Wilson Center in Washington during the contested vote and could not say whether the voter fraud that took place was “massive” or widespread. But she did say that social protests provoked by the violations were “justified,” something few Russian officials readily concede.

The protest movement in Russia has waned since 2012, because of a crackdown on dissent, internal discord among opponents of Putin, and the 2014 annexation of Crimea, which split the opposition movement and brought a surge of higher approval ratings for the Kremlin.

In the current environment, Pamfilova said, the government is not under any pressure to appease liberals or opposition members.

“What’s the point for the authorities of catering to them?” she replied when asked about the potential political motivations of her appointment. “There are so few of them, they are disappearing.”

She attacked what she called the country’s “radical opposition,” for failing to make inroads with the larger Russian electorate and for demonizing those, like herself, who sometimes align with the government. At the same time, she promised to open access to the elections.

“In my opinion, the richer the political spectrum of a country is the better,” she said. “That is why I think that my objective is to provide an access to elections for all parties.”

Meanwhile, the steady attacks on opposition figures have continued, including the brazen assassination of former deputy prime minister Boris Nemtsov just steps from the Kremlin walls last year. On the day in April that Pamfilova met with a reporter, Russian opposition activist Alexei Navalny and Ludmilla Ulitskaya, a novelist famous for her opposition views, were doused with an “acrid chemical” in separate attacks on Moscow’s streets by nationalist activists.

The pressure has thrown the opposition into disarray. Last month, a Russian state news channel aired footage of the opposition leader Mikhail Kasyanov engaging in an affair, sparking an exodus from the opposition coalition slated to compete in the elections.

Ahead of the September elections, Navalny has said that his party members plan to “test” Pamfilova. The first showdown came near Moscow, in the suburb of Barvikha, where activists decried non-residents’ being bused in to vote in municipal elections last month. Pamfilova halted the vote.

“Ella Pamfilova had enough political will in order to cancel these unfair elections,” Navalny said, offering measured praise in an interview on the Echo of Moscow radio station. “We will see whether or not she has enough will to hold fair elections.”

Pamfilova served as a government minister and member of parliament during Boris Yeltsin’s presidency in the 1990s, before taking various roles as a government liaison for human rights advocates under Putin. She characterized her relationship with Putin as “fairly complicated,” but he has nominated her repeatedly for government roles in the human rights sphere, before asking her to become elections commissioner in March.

She has repeatedly resigned her posts in protest, first as social minister under Yeltsin, and then as the chairwoman of the Kremlin’s commission on human rights in 2010, amid harassment from nationalist activists.

“If I see that my work begins to contradict my personal principles and I understand it is not effective, I don’t remain in my position,” she said.

Sharing Facebook posts can affect users' comprehension, says study

'What the research suggests is that we need to be smart about how we use social media'

Many people use their smart phones to access social media Getty

• Serina Sandhu-Wednesday 30 March 2016

Sharing items on social media channels such as Facebook, Twitter and Weibo can affect how well a user understands what they read, according to a new study.

The finding comes after researchers from Peking University and Cornell University carried out a study on users of Weibo, a Chinese micro-blogging site which is similar to Twitter.

Two groups of students both read 40 Weibo posts referencing the same topic. But the group who were given the option to repost the items did not perform as well as the group without the option in a subsequent comprehension test of the Weibo posts.

What are Facebook reactions?

The users with the option to repost also demonstrated that they did not fully understand what they had shared.

In the paper entitled “Does micro-blogging make us ‘shallow’?,” published in Computers in Human Behaviour, the researchers said: “The feedback function encourages individuals to make quick responses, taking away the time individuals would otherwise use to cogitate and integrate the content information they receive.”

In another test with a similar format, the group with the option to share items also performed more poorly on a subsequent reading comprehension test.

“When we are reposting and sharing information with others, we unwantedly add burden to our cognitive resources and, as a result, our own understanding of the information is compromised and our subsequent learning hindered,” said the researchers.

They concluded: “The findings provide important insights into the influence of Internet technology on reading and learning.”

Cognitive neuroscientist and creator of British Psychological Society’s Research Digest blog, Christian Jarrett, told The Independent that the study was an example of what psychologists call “media multitasking”.

“When people multitask in this way, they’re not really doing both tasks at once, they’re switching back and forth between the two, which slows down their performance on both tasks and interferes with comprehension.”

The research, Mr Jarrett said, suggested it was “a bad idea for people to spend time on social media directly before doing a piece of work”.

“For example, the implication is that using Twitter before doing homework will interfere with performance on the homework.”

However the findings did not mean that social media was bad for us. “What the research suggests is that we need to be smart about how we use social media… so that we gain from their benefits and avoid potential downsides.”

Pakistan opposition leader Imran Khan admits using off-shore company

 

Chairman of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) political party Imran Khan addresses his supporters during what has been dubbed a ''freedom march'' in Islamabad August 21, 2014.

REUTERS/FAISAL MAHMOOD/FILES

BY DRAZEN JORGIC AND MEHREEN ZAHRA-MALIK-Sat May 14, 2016

Pakistani opposition leader Imran Khan, who tried to oust Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in a row over offshore wealth, has acknowledged using an off-shore company to avoid paying British tax on a London property sale.

Analysts say the admission is likely to ease the pressure on Sharif's government from a Panama Papers data leak that showed Sharif's children had used off-shore companies to buy London properties. Last month the government bowed to opposition demands for a review by an independent commission.

Khan's PTI party initially denied media claims that he bought a property in London through an off-shore company in 1983, when he was playing cricket in England. But late on Friday, Khan said he set up the company to legally avoid paying British taxes.

"Because I was not a British citizen, an offshore flat was bought. When I sold that flat in 2003, I did not have to pay the taxes in U.K.," Khan told reporters at London's Heathrow Airport. "There is nothing illegal in it."

PTI and Khan did not respond to requests for comment.

Khan, long revered as a cricketing hero, had relentlessly needled Sharif over the Panama Papers revelations and railed against people who use off-shore companies to dodge tax.

Media commentators and Nawaz supporters quoted back at him his Twitter comment from last month: "Only reason ppl open offshore accts through Panama is to either hide wealth, esp ill-gotten wealth, or to evade tax or both."

Umar Cheema, a Pakistani reporter who collaborated with the International Committee of Journalists (ICIJ) on the Panama Papers leak, said Khan's use of an off-shore company in 1983 pre-dates anything found in the Panama Papers about other Pakistanis.

Khan "is pioneer in offshore company formation, among Pakistanis. Not only the oldest, his company remained operational for the longest period," Cheema said on Twitter.

Mohammad Zubair, the privatisation minister, said Khan should prepare to face a parliamentary grilling. He added Sharif does not own any off-shore companies.

Sharif's daughter Maryam, who is alleged to have owned an off-shore company used to buy a flat in London, also waded in.

"The 'PIONEER' of offshore companies ..... The TRAILBLAZER award goes to Mr. Khan. #Hypocrisy," she said on Twitter.

One political analyst said the opposition was likely to keep using the Panama Papers to pillor Sharif but Khan's revelations will help blunt those attacks.

(Writing by Drazen Jorgic; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

How Brazil’s Left Destroyed Itself

Once upon a time, the Workers’ Party promised 
clean government. Now it’s squarely at the center 
of the biggest corruption scandal in the country’s history.

BY ANTÔNIO SAMPAIO-MAY 13, 2016

After days of chaos in the upper ranks of Brazilian politics, the Senate in Brasilia has voted for the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff. This moment marks the final fall from grace not only of the president but also of her ruling Workers’ Party, which has run the country for 13 years.

Not so long ago, many in Brazil saw the Left as the best hope for the country’s salvation. And, though the Workers’ Party may be better known in the wider world for its audacious (and successful) antipoverty programs, no less of a draw for Brazilians was its promise to institute clean government and do away with graft. 

Now, however, the biggest corruption scandal in national history is revealing the extent to which Rousseff and her allies actively contributed to the rot of Brazil’s democratic institutions. It has taken the impeachment of the country’s first female president — who once stood as a champion of the fight for clean government — to lay bare this dispiriting reality.

At the very moment Rousseff assumed office in 2011, the country was confronting an earlier scandal involving corruption at the highest levels. That year, several high-ranking politicians from the office of her patron and predecessor, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, faced trial for their role in creating an extensive legislative vote-buying system (known as the mensalão). During her first 12 months in office, Rousseff acted decisively, firing six ministers who had been implicated in various corruption investigations. Her approach became known as the “ethical clean sweep,” and it resonated with the public.

In so doing, Rousseff was merely picking up on a theme that had already been central to her party’s message a few years earlier. While in the opposition during the 1990s, the Workers’ Party had gone to great lengths to stress its anti-corruption credentials. The demand for “ethics in politics” figured prominently in the party’s talking points, usually right after its trademark anti-poverty policies.
The mensalão scandal, which emerged in 2006, during Lula’s first term as president, thus represented a profound shock for Brazilian voters, who were horrified to see some of his closest associates revealed as profoundly corrupt. Historian Lincoln Secco later described the resulting mess as the party’s “biggest crisis” — one it survived due to its deep base of support among the working class and Lula’s personal popularity.

Rousseff’s assumption of the presidency occurred, therefore, just as the Brazilian Left was starting to lose its aura of innocence. In 2013, midway into her first term, the mensalão scandal resulted in jail terms for some of the country’s most powerful men, including Lula’s ex-chief of staff and a former Workers’ Party leader.Though Rousseff wasn’t accused of any misdeeds, her reputation was tainted by association. She, too, after all, was a Lula protégée.

Just as she ended her first term in office, another scandal was emerging — this one far larger and potentially more devastating than the mensalão. It centered on the state oil company, Petrobras, where Rousseff was chairwoman of the board from 2003 to 2010. The company had been a key driver of Brazil’s rise over the previous decade, and the scandal effectively brought Brazil’s economy, which had already started to struggle, to its knees. Petrobras and large construction companies drastically cut investment, with a nationwide impact, as estimated by a Brazilian consulting company, of $40 billion.

Brazilians had been accustomed to viewing corruption as the province of wayward individuals. Now, however, the evidence pointed to an elaborate criminal enterprise dedicated to turning Brazil’s economic power into an enrichment mechanism for the political elite. Those involved in uncovering the Petrobras affair claim that it is the largest anti-corruption investigation in Brazil’s history. It may well turn out to be one of the largest and most ambitious in the world. Federal Police investigators estimate that $12 billion was siphoned into the accounts of politicians and parties. (Thiscompares with $28 million of money spent on bribes in the mensalãoscandal.)

So what went wrong with the promise of “ethics in politics”? Even at the heights of their influence and popularity — Lula had a record 87 percent approval rating during his final months — neither Workers’ Party president managed to overhaul Brazil’s dysfunctional political structure, leaving it vulnerable to corruption. Perhaps the biggest problem they failed to address was the fragmented party system, which tends to lead to the creation of complex ruling coalitions. This, in turn, gives coalition leaders incentives to create intricate patronage arrangements to keep their many allies in line. (This, indeed, was the reason for the mensalão scheme.)

To the great dismay of Workers’ Party supporters, who originally regarded it as an anti-systemic party that was inherently “clean,” the Lula and Rousseff administrations ended up entwining themselves even more deeply in opaque coalition-building than their predecessors. Key party figures excelled at playing the game, once even creating a coalition that brought together 10 parties in 37 ministries — both unprecedented numbers. In 2012, the Supreme Court described the mensalão as the “strategy of the Workers’ Party for keeping itself in power.”

Today, supporters of the government are right to point out that Rousseff is one of the few high-profile political figures who has not been accused of abusing her office for personal enrichment. (Her impeachment is related to alleged manipulation of public accounts to disguise a deficit). But as key figures around Rousseff were detained or questioned, her reputation as an ethical champion fell apart. Every revelation of bribery in Petrobras reduced the trust she had earned — especially since she was the head of the board for seven years during the Lula presidency, when the scheme was at its peak. The allegations of fiscal mismanagement have combined with the clear evidence of corruption within her party to devastating effect.

To be sure, the crisis of confidence is affecting all of Brazil’s factions. Many opposition politicians have been booed during street protests against the government. The man who led the impeachment campaign against Rousseff, Congressman Eduardo Cunha, was recently suspended from his post by the Supreme Court. But the details about the corruption directly involving the Workers’ Party — such as revelations about mechanisms that fed misappropriated Petrobras funds straight into party accounts — have surprised even the most cynical observers of Brazilian politics.

Rousseff’s downfall is thus inseparable from the broader credibility crisis convulsing Brazil’s political system. She has lost the trust of most Brazilians, many of whom believe that she must at least have been aware of the corruption in Petrobras during her tenure as chairwoman of its board. Her reputation for improving the lot of the poor also weakened as the economyshrank by 3.8 percent last year. The poor were hit hardest by rising inflation, which reached 10 percent in the same period, far surpassing the official targets. In December, a few months before the start of Rousseff’s impeachment process, her approval rate had fallen to a historic low of 9 percent. A record 3.5 million people took to the streets on March 13 to demand her impeachment and to show support for the Petrobras investigation.

Brazil’s loss of innocence was also Rousseff’s downfall.Distrust contaminated her administration, making governing a practical impossibility — during her last days in power, she had trouble getting governors and mayors to answer her phone calls. More broadly, the credibility of both the legislative and executive branches has been damaged as Brazilians realized the extent to which corruption had infiltrated these institutions. The Workers’ Party lost, maybe forever, its narrative of bringing ethics to the country’s politics. As a result, Brazil’s parties and other political institutions are facing their biggest crisis since the fall of the military regime in 1985. For now, the people’s trust has been transferred to other institutions. The Federal Police, the judges, and the prosecutors pursuing the Petrobras scandal have become heroes. How theyconduct their work, and whether they’ll be able to bring the investigation to a satisfactory conclusion, will determine the future of Brazil’s gravely weakened democracy.

In the photo, dejected supporters of President Dilma Rousseff react to news that her impeachment would move forward in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, on April 17. 

Photo credit: GUSTAVO ANDRADE/AFP/Getty Images

Venezuela president Nicolás Maduro declares state of emergency

Beleaguered leader invokes power to ‘confront threats’ as US officials warn country could disintegrate

 People queueing to buy food are prey for thieves in Caracas, capital of Venezuela. Photograph: Carlos Garcia Rawlins/Reuters

Emma Graham-Harrison-Saturday 14 May 2016

Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, has declared a state of emergency, hours after US intelligence officials warned that the South American country could be on the brink of disintegration.

The powers Maduro obtains after Friday night’s declaration allow him “to stabilise our country, and confront all the international and national threats against our fatherland in this moment”, the president said, but he did not detail how he intends to use them.

The country is grappling with soaring inflation, a shrinking economy, chronic food shortages, and power cuts so bad that public servants have been put on a two-day week and the president personally urged women to stop blow-drying their hair to save electricity.

In December the opposition won parliamentary elections by a landslide, and is now pushing for a referendum on recalling Maduro from office, allowed under Venezuela’s constitution.

The president has vowed to see out his term, due to end in 2019, but the two US intelligence officials told journalists in Washington that it looks increasingly unlikely Maduro can hold on to power, even if he staves off a recall vote.

A leftwinger close to former President Hugo Chávez, the 53-year-old Maduro came to power after the founder of Venezuela’s “Bolivarian revolution” died of cancer. But he lacks Chávez’s charisma or the oil bonzanza that funded his reforms. The former bus driver could be vulnerable to a “palace coup”, from colleagues frustrated by his handling of Chávez’s legacy, or an outright military grab for power, news agencies reported the unnamed officials as saying.

Maduro’s Friday night declaration of a 60-day state of emergency comes after a week that saw demonstrations for a recall vote escalate into violence, with protesters hurling stones and police firing teargas.

His biggest problem is the economy, which contracted last year and is forecast to shrink by a further 8% this year. Inflation is already in triple digits and expected to soar over 700% this year, which could leave the government too cash-strapped to even pay for printing new money.

As shortages of basic goods deepen, hours-long queues have become part of daily life for most Venezuelans, and looting is increasingly common, with mobs stealing flour, chicken and even underwear last week. Lengthy drought has created severe power shortages in a country heavily dependent on hydropower. Critics say mismanagement and lack of investment have exacerbated the problems.

The government’s efforts to manage the shortages have included moving clocks forward half an hour, closing schools on Fridays, sending civil servants home three days a week, and even drafting in Maduro himself to dispense energy-saving tips. “Cut the use of hair-dryers, or only use them half the time,” he said on a recent TV appearance. “Do you think you could do this, ladies?”

Caracas has become one of the most violent cities in the world, with people waiting to buy groceries leaving their cash at home while they queue, and summoning relatives to bring it to them at the last minute to avoid theft.

“You can hear the ice cracking. You know there’s a crisis coming,” one US official said. “Our pressure on this isn’t going to resolve this issue.” The US government fears a return to the convulsions of 1989, when an earlier collapse in oil prices contributed to riots and looting in which more than 300 people died, the officials said.

Maduro denounced the press briefing as part of a conspiracy against his country. “Washington is activating measures at the request of Venezuela’s fascist right,” he said in a TV broadcast.

Any US intervention is sensitive in Venezuela because Washington has a history of both covert and openintervention across Latin America, from Chile to Nicaragua. In Venezuela there is lingering resentment at support for a shortlived 2002 coup against Chávez.

A surge in oil revenue, or fresh cash in the form of Chinese loans, might reinvigorate Maduro’s government, but there is little sign he can hope for either.

Work has all-but stopped on the Chinese bullet train that was intended as South America’s first and a symbol of socialist solidarity. It is now four years overdue, Chinese workers have pulled out, key sites have been looted and a government delegation to Beijing earlier this year came home empty-handed. ​And t​he retreat of two big oil services companies, Schlumberger and Halliburton, after the state firm failed to pay outstanding bills means crude production could fall below 2 million barrels per day for the first time in 20 years.

Chinese man’s ‘missing kidney’ found in his own body

Liu Yongwei believed his kidney went missing after a chest surgery. Image via The Shanghaiist

11th May 2016 

A MAN who claimed his right kidney mysteriously went missing after a surgery has been told it is right where it should be – albeit, “displaced” and”deformed”.

Liu Yongwei, from east China, had gone for a chest surgery in the Xuzhou Medical College following a road accident. He was told the surgery went well, and was redirected to a different hospital for further treatment.

It was during a routine CT scan at the second hospital that doctors reportedly discovered several abnormalities, including surgical tubing left in his abdominal cavity and a missing right kidney.

According to the Shanghaiist, a visit to another hospital in Nanjing confirmed the abnormalities, but both hospitals refused to treat Liu.

Liu launched a complaint, accusing the doctor who treated him of “mishandling” his organs and demanded 2 million yuan ($307,200) in compensation.

SEE ALSO: China’s chaotic healthcare drives patient attacks

A special investigations team was formed in Xuzhou City, in the Jiangsu province to look into his case.

Based on medical examinations and records found at the hospital, the investigation found that Liu’s kidney was “displaced, deformed, and atrophied by injuries”, but was still inside his body.

The Shanghaiist reported the kidney as being “decayed” and “shriveled up”, and specialists say further tests will be carried out. The hospital reportedly accused Liu of “seriously distorting the truth” with his claims.

According to China.org.cn, tensions between doctors and patients in China are rising after a string of incidents involving violence and malpractice.

In April, a public health scandal revealed nine companies were selling improperly stored or expired vaccines, meaning an unknown number of children had received numerous shots.

Last week, a retired dentist was stabbed to death by a former patient who was enraged by his discolored teeth. The patient later committed suicide.

Sri Lankan police arrest scores of Tamil youth

By Subash Somachandran and S. Jayanth -11 May 2016

The Sri Lankan government has unleashed a major crackdown against Tamil youth in the country’s war-ravaged north and east. Since March, more than 23 Tamils have been detained under the draconian Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA). Most of those arrested were allegedly former members of the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Elam (LTTE), which was militarily defeated in 2009.

May 18 marks the seventh anniversary of the end of 26-year communalist war, during which hundreds of Tamils were arrested, disappeared and murdered by Sri Lankan security forces and associated paramilitaries. Around 200,000 people were killed during the conflict. The UN estimated that tens of thousands of Tamil civilians perished during the final weeks of military assaults in 2009.

Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe falsely claim they have established a “democratic environment” in the country’s north and east. In fact, the military occupation is deepening in these areas. Residents face ongoing repression and dire poverty.

The pretext for the latest round of arrests was the police discovery of an alleged LTTE suicide jacket and explosives in Chavakachcheri, near Jaffna. The police immediately arrested and detained a suspect, Edward Julian, alias Rames.

Following this incident, the Terrorist Investigation Department (TID) began making arrests and abductions in Jaffna, Vavuniya, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Chavakachcheri and Nelliady areas in the north and Trincomalee and Batticaloa in the east. These included:

* Rasadurai Jayanthan, 32, abducted in a “white-van” operation from Chavakachcheri on April 10 and is currently incarcerated at Boossa prison in the south. Unidentified “white van” abductions were used by Sri Lankan intelligence, police and paramilitaries to disappear and murder of hundreds of people during the war.

Jayanthan’s mother told the media two people arrived on motorbikes and began interrogating her son and searching their home. She said a white van pulled up outside the dwelling. “They handcuffed my son and took him in that van. When I asked the reason they told me to ask him [Jayanthan].” She later learnt that he had been taken to Boossa prison.

* Srisivamurthi Kanapathipillai, 26, alias Nagulan, was arrested by the TID at his home garden at Neerveli in Jaffna on April 26.

* On the same day, Kalaiarasan, alias Arivalagan, an alleged former LTTE intelligence officer, was abducted at Trincomalee in the east. Police later claimed he had been arrested.

* Kirushnapillai Kalainesan (42), or Praba, another alleged former LTTE intelligence officer, was arrested by TID at his home in eastern Batticaloa on May 2. According to his wife, several unidentified persons recently visited their home seeking information. He refused to cooperate after they refused to confirm their identity.

* V.S. Sivakaran, secretary of the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (Tamil Federal Party) Northern Province Youth Organisation, was detained by the TID in Mannar in late April. He was later released on bail. Police claim he was arrested because he “helped” two ex-LTTE cadres flee Sri Lanka.

Police also detained a Tamil youth from Jaffna for allegedly listening to an LTTE song and two fishermen were abducted in a white van in Vadamarachchi in Jaffna.

Many of those recently arrested were previously imprisoned at the end of the war. They were among the hundreds of thousands incarcerated in military detention centers near Vavuniya. Around 12,000 youth accused of being LTTE members were held in several so-called rehabilitation centres.

While the former government of President Mahinda Rajapakse, which came under mass opposition and international criticism, eventually released most of the detainees, they remain under continuous surveillance by the military, police and intelligence agencies.

Currently, about 200 Tamil and Sinhala political prisoners are held without charge in Sri Lankan jails, some for many years.

During last year’s elections President Sirisena and Prime Minister Wickremesinghe promised to release all political prisoners. As soon as they came to power they changed their tune, declaring there were no political prisoners in Sri Lanka, only “terrorists” who had committed crimes.

The Sirisena-Wickremesinghe government’s latest round of arrests and the revival of anti-Tamil communalism, is being justified by claims that “LTTE terrorism is reviving.” On April 30, Wickremesinghe told a Colombo meeting the government would “not allow terrorism to raise its head again” and the government would replace the PTA with British-style anti-terror laws.

A group of opposition MPs led by former President Rajapakse have denounced the government, claiming it created the conditions for a so-called reemergence of LTTE “terrorism.”

Rajapakse called on the government to “not to hide the truth [about the suicide jacket found by the police] from the people.” Last week, former External Affairs Minister G. L. Peiris accused Colombo of reducing Rajapakse’s security while the LTTE was “reviving.”

The opposition Tamil National Alliance (TNA), a front of Tamil bourgeois parties, has backed the police and military crackdown in the north and east, while politely raising concerns about how the arrests occurred. The TNA is propping up the Washington-backed Sirisena-Wickremesinge government and fully supports US geo-political aims and interests in the Indian Ocean.

TNA parliamentarian M.A. Sumanthiran told Ceylon Today that the techniques used to arrest former LTTE cadres would “allow anti-social elements to adopt the same methods… like what happened in the past with ‘white van abductions”.” This, Sumanthiran warned, would “create a free-for-all situation.” He emphasised that “the TNA was not interfering in the defence or the security issues in the country.”

The state repression in Sri Lanka’s north and east and the whipping up of anti-Tamil communalism by the government and the opposition is an attack on the working class and the poor, Sinhala and Tamil alike. The crackdown coincides with the Sri Lankan government’s agreement to impose another round of International Monetary Fund (IMF)-dictated austerity measures.

The Sirisena-Wickremesinge government and all the parties of the Sri Lankan political establishment are nervous that the imposition of the IMF cuts could provoke unified mass action by workers across the island. The promotion of anti-Tamil communalism is a time-worn method to try and divide and weaken the working class.

Vaddukkoddai Resolution May Become Startlingly Relevant Again!

By Veluppillai Thangavelu –May 13, 2016

Veluppillai Thangavelu

If Constitutional Making Do Not Succeed Vaddukkoddai Resolution May Become Startlingly Relevant Again

“A man may die, nations may rise and fall, but an idea lives on. Ideas have endurance without death.” ~  John F. Kennedy

You cannot kill an idea, however one may try. A single idea from the human mind can build cities, rewrite all the rules, and transform the world. Neither armies, nor dictators, nor even mortality have power over them, people die, but their ideas do not.

An American civil rights activist Medgar Evers stated that “you can kill a man, but you can’t kill an idea.” He was later shot dead by a Klansman, but the civil rights movement endured.

Nelson Mandela, who led South Africa from apartheid to democracy, was a humble, eloquent and inspirational figure who advocated peace, democracy and human rights. He was South Africa’s first black president who is now dead and gone, but his thoughts on freedom, equality continue to inspire millions of people around the world struggling to gain their freedom from oppression and slavery.

On freedom he asserted that “There is no easy walk to freedom anywhere and many of us will have to pass through the valley of the shadow of death again and again before we reach the mountain tops of our desires.”

On equality, “During my lifetime I have dedicated myself to this struggle of the African people. I have fought against white domination, and I have fought against black domination. I have cherished the ideal of a democratic and free society in which all persons live together in harmony and with equal opportunities. It is an ideal which I hope to live for and to achieve. But if needs be, it is an ideal for which I am prepared to die.” (20 April 1964, Rivonia trial)

On a meaningful life “What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead.” (May 2002)

According to the epic Bharatham, Maharajah Yudhisthira was the rightful heir to his father’s kingdom. But just to favor his own sons, headed by Duryodhanan, Dhirstaratiran adopted various unfair means to cheat his nephews of their rightful share of the kingdom. At last the Pāndavas sent Krishna as their emissary to demand just five villages, one for each of the five brothers, but that was also refused by the usurpers. The Kauravas were blind with arrogance and power and tried to even arrest Shri Krishna himself. Their refusal eventually led to the War of Kuruksetra. The Battle of Kuruksetra, therefore, was induced by the Kauravas and not the Pāndavas.

In a similar vain, the Thamils asked for a regional council for North and East combined. Since 1979, the Federal Party (ITAK) has demanded a federal state in which the Sinhalese and Thamils can share power. After unsuccessfully agitating for a federal state for a decade, a pact was signed between Prime Minister Bandaranaike and Federal Party leader SJV Chelvanayakam on July 26, 1957.

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Hundreds attend events in north to remember war dead - Report

May 13, 2016
Hundreds of minority Tamils took part in events in Sri Lanka’s former war torn north on Friday to remember the victims of the island’s 30 year civil conflict, the Xinhua news agency reported. 

Families of the war dead and those missing lit candles and took part in religious observances amidst heightened security. 

The events which began on Friday, will be held for a week at different locations in the north and east with the final event set to take place on May 18, in Mullivaikal, where the final battle between government troops and Tamil Tiger rebels took place.

 Government troops defeated the rebels in May 2009, ending years of conflict but international agencies have alleged that atleast 40,000 civilians were killed in the final stages of battle.

 Northern Provincial Council member, M.K. Shivajilingham told reporters earlier this week that there was an attempt to block the remembrance events but the events would go ahead as planned. 

Political sources said that security had been heightened in the north and east to prevent any individuals or groups from holding events which was seen as paying respects to the rebels who had been killed in the war. 

State Minister of Defence, Ruwan Wijewardena said on Thursday that the police had been instructed to crackdown on events held in support of the rebels and legal action would be taken against anyone who had organized or taken part in such events.

 Wijewardena said that while the government had no issued with events being held in support of the civilians killed during the war, it would not allow events to be held in support of the rebels. 

He further said that the government would also hold events to commemorate the soldiers killed during the war with the main event to be held on May 18. (Source – Xinhua) -Agencies