Peace for the World

Peace for the World
First democratic leader of Justice the Godfather of the Sri Lankan Tamil Struggle: Honourable Samuel James Veluppillai Chelvanayakam

Sunday, January 10, 2016

Yahapalanaya Put To The Test

Memorial service to mark the seventh death anniversary of Lasantha Wickrematunge
Military implicated in five key assassinations during former regime
  • AG under pressure by military and defence establishment to stop cases
 Sunday, January 10, 2016





As January 8, 2016 marked the first anniversary of the establishment of the yahapalanaya form of good governance, it was evident that the government of President Maithripala Sirisena and
Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has been put to the test. 

Myla Brings Pride To The Community


By S. Joypooranachandren –January 10, 2016 
S. Joypooranachandren
S. Joypooranachandren
Saravanamuthu Mylvaganam – MBE
Colombo Telegraph
Our community feels honoured that one of our eldest son’s commitment and hard work towards the community’s betterment is recognised by Her Majesty. It is a jubilant time for the Tamil Schools Sports Association (TSSA), Surbiton Sports Club, Kingston Institute of Tamil Culture (KITC), and the whole Sri Lankan community.
Myla is from a town called Jaffna, north of Sri Lanka, and studied in the renowned school of Hartley College. His career began in the 1960’s when he was selected to participate in district matches, competing against teams from all schools in Northern Sri Lanka and with various selected teams visiting from India.
As a talented and stylish batsman at Hartley College, he always opened the batting line for the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Cricket teams at his college. Representing Jaffna Schools Selected Cricket Teams he played and performed excellently against the Indian School Team in 1964. In addition, he obtained numerous honours when he played for the 1st, 2nd and 3rd Eleven football teams for his college. From an early age he became a respected, well known and well loved sport personality during his time at college and in Jaffna.
After declining recruitment for the Ceylon Army, he travelled to England to continue with education, qualifying as a Network System Administrator for the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI), which has been his occupation for the last 40 years. Nevertheless he maintained his strong aptitude for cricket by playing for the DTI’s Cricket Team in London.
Saravanamuthu Mylvagana
Saravanamuthu Mylvagana
While enjoying playing cricket he embarked on finding friends with a similar interest of establishing sporting organisations in the UK to train and organise sporting events to provide opportunity for young children to excel in their sporting abilities.
He established a coaching programme at a community school in New Malden in the name of KITC – Kingston Institute of Tamil Culture and entered the cricket team at the local league. He was inspirational and many trained by him became fine cricketers at their respective local schools in the Royal Borough of Kingston.
Surbiton Sports Club was founded in 1985 with his cricketing friends and Myla played for over 15 years for the club and became President in 2012 when the club celebrated its first Jubilee. He currently trains youths at the nets both winter and summer, manages the players, and the club has won many prizes and made it to the top of the local league for many years. His own back garden became a training pitch to train young children during weekdays and evenings.Read More
Ricardo Hausmann’s message: Restructure exports for growth choosing products over which you can compete with others 

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Ricardo Hausmann-Monday, 11 January 2016
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Sri Lankans’ strange psyche: Exports are good but Imports are bad

There is a popular economic belief among Sri Lankans that in order to build Sri Lanka as a strong nation, it should produce everything within the country and say goodbye to imports as far as possible.

It is so indelibly ingrained in the psyche of Sri Lankans that it is not a belief that could easily be erased. Anyone who speaks against it is immediately branded as somebody odd, without nationalistic sentiments and pro-Western. Hence, politicians of every generation have used it as an effective mantra to rally masses around them.

Culture happens. No matter what.

Image via NKAR
Currently there is an initiative to draft a National Cultural Policy for Sri Lanka – which will look at bringing arts, culture and creative thinking into the heart of local life and nation building.

Crooked Royal principal caught conducting classes illegally on the sly ! Akila boots him out


LEN logo(Lanka-e-News -10.Jan.2016, 11.15PM)   The principal of Royal College, Colombo  who was conducting  a class on the sly without the knowledge of the education ministry was caught red handed , and the minister of education Akila Viraj Kariyawasam has taken action against him immediately. 
In the super grade schools including Royal College , classes comprising 40 children each   have been commenced separately for admission of grade five students who secure the highest marks at the scholarship exam to grade six. The Royal College principal on the other hand has conducted separate classes under this pretext on the sly to admit 40 other students , and he had not informed the education ministry of that. Moreover he had collected prohibitive fees to admit students to that class.
When  this came to light , the education minister had instructed that students who are successful at the grade 5 scholarship exam be admitted to that class. Accordingly , 40 students who secured places at Ananda College and not Royal College will secure places at Royal College , and those who obtained lower marks will secure places at Ananda College to fill the 40 vacancies arising at Ananda College.  As this chain extends to the lowest classes , 40 students who did not get a super grade school will now  secure places in a super grade school.

The delinquent principal of Royal College has been immediately transferred out , based on reports. May we recall Lanka e news during the last regime made a number of unsavory exposures about this crooked and corrupt principal. Through his colossal illicit earnings , he had become an owner of 5 super luxury mansions in Colombo, accordiing to reports. Every such mansion has a swimming pool, it is learnt .
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by     (2016-01-10 19:53:15)

Hirunika’s Aunt To Get Diplomatic Posting


Colombo TelegraphJanuary 10, 2016
The Sirisena-Wickremesinghe regime’s policy of helping friends and family appears to have spread to the Foreign Ministry with career diplomats being overlooked in favour of loyalists and their kin.
SwarnaSwarna Pushpa Kanthi Gunaratne, sister of Hirunika Premachandra‘s late father Bharatha Lakshman Premachandra is to be appointed as Sri Lanka’s consul in Los Angeles, USA.
Colombo Telegraph emailed the Foreign Ministry requesting confirmation of the report regarding the appointment, but the Ministry has not responded yet.
When Colombo Telegraph contacted Swarna Gunaratne yesterday, she said she is waiting for the confirmation. “I haven’t got the appointment letter yet” she said.
It is confirmed that Guarante has never held a diplomatic post before or has any career training or experience in the diplomatic service.

We have not come to any consensus with the suspects – Police

We have not come to any consensus with the suspects – Police
Jan 10, 2016
Sri Lanka police has informed the media that it has not come to any consensus with the members of the security forces who are alleged for the abduction and the disappearance happened during the former regime.

The police have stressed that it will take credible steps to conduct a fair investigation of for alll the murders and disappearances reported to its department.
The Criminal Investigation Department has able to find many important evidences regarding the murder of Nadarajah Raviraj, Lasantha Wickramathunga, Mohamed Wasim Thajudeen and Prageeth Ekneligoda.
The CID has able to reveal that colonel Shammi who was a prime suspect of the disappearance of Prageeth is a very close ally of Patali Champika Ranawaka.
During the investigations conducted the CID has able to reveal vital information’s about the disappearance of colonel Shammi’s driver corporal R.M. Premakumarage. The CID has disclosed that the disappearance of corporal Premakumarage was caused by colonel Shammi for a personal dispute.
18 members of the army has given statements for the murder of Lasantha Wickramathunga
Although the defender vehicle which was deployed to murder Thajudeen has been identified the CID could not identify the people seated inside. The CID has sorted help from international specialists to reveal the people in the CCTV footage.
Islamic State in Libya: The power of propaganda

Concern is growing in Libya about the rise of IS through radicalising young men via videos and pamphlets glorifying the group 
Islamic State militants in Libya are shown in a video released by the group (Twitter) 


Sunday 10 January 2016
TRIPOLI - Fears are growing about the radicalisation of young people in Libya after the Islamic State (IS) announced that one of the suicide bombers who led an assault on two of the country’s main oil ports last week was a Tripoli teenager. 
After the revelation that the 15-year-old Libyan was one of those who carried out suicide attacks on 4 January, Libyan media reported that the boy had disappeared from his home in Tripoli four months ago, after being radicalised in a mosque in the capital. In a call to his family after he vanished from home, he told them he had joined IS and was in Sirte, according to Libyan news outlet Alwasat.
Libya’s struggle with instability and civil conflict in the wake of the 2011 uprising has made the country a fertile ground for IS, which has attracted foreign fighters and garnered some local support. It now has complete control over 300 kilometres of coastal territory, including four towns and a further four villages. 
The militant group is spreading its reign of terror beyond its declared territory, with attacks in the past week targeting a police academy at Zliten, 280 kilometres west of Sirte, as well as the oil ports of Sidra and Ras Lanuf. These latest assaults indicate the presence of sleeper cells in other Libyan towns, local people say.
“We have Daesh [the Arabic acronym for IS] in our town, for sure,” said a senior official from al-Khoms - just 115km from Tripoli - who spoke to Middle East Eye on condition of anonymity. “They are small in number, but it’s like a snowball. They are targeting our youth now, and this is how they become strong.”
He said that propaganda DVDs were being surreptitiously distributed among young people.
“I have watched this film and it is like a promotional video designed to brainwash 15- to 25-year-olds. Believe me, if you see it, you can understand why people join Daesh,” he said. “I think they used professional psychologists because they know exactly how to affect the minds of young men.”
The official said IS was preying on vulnerable young people who were religious but poorly educated, adding that some youngsters from Khoms had already left the town and were now believed to be in Sirte.
“I think they went because of promises of money and other benefits. Daesh seems to have a lot of money to recruit people,” he said. “If a young man wants a woman, Daesh promises him three women. If he wants a knife, Daesh will give him an AK47. If he wants to go to Europe, Daesh says no problem, just fight with us for two years and then you can go.”
Several displaced families who had fled from Benghazi, where IS militants are fighting alongside rebel groups and members of al-Qaeda affiliate Ansar al-Sharia against government forces, were behind the DVD distribution, he said.
“Daesh has not yet declared our town is part of its state, but people have to understand what is coming,” the al-Khoms official said. “There are sleeper cells in Tripoli and Misrata, as well as in the western towns of Zawia and Sabratha. In Libya, we cannot stop the spread of Daesh now.”
Similar material glorifying IS ideologies and operations has been circulating in Libya for several years, according to a former official from the town of Nofaliya, which was declared part of IS earlier this year. “Filmed mainly in Iraq and Syria, these films show young men happily leaving on suicide missions or beheading Syrian and Iraqi soldiers,” he said. “They are very high-quality and, along with the extremist preaching in the mosque, inspired many of our sons to join ISIS.” 
In Tripoli, the Special Deterrence Force has started to dismantle IS sleeper cells, making a number of arrests. In a recently released hour-long video about IS activity in the capital, seven men captured by the force confessed to being IS members and gave details about their operations in Tripoli during 2015, including attacks on a five-star hotel and diplomatic missions. One of the IS militants said these attacks were designed to gain media attention and further isolate Libya from the outside world. 
The youngest captive said he had been trained in an IS camp in Libya where trainees were mainly born in the 1990s and were under 25. It was unusual to see older recruits amongst the many nationalities, which included Tunisians and Europeans, at the training camp, he said. 
The men had all previously been in Sirte, the nucleus of IS activity in Libya after the militant group lost control of the eastern town of Derna. Sirte itself has been all but cut off from the outside world after IS shut down telephone and internet networks, enabling it to keep a tight check on information coming out of the town. But former residents who have fled say IS members in the town now run to several thousand, many of whom are foreign militants.
In and around Sirte, a local radio station is being used to spread propaganda amongst residents and passing travellers after militants commandeered broadcasting equipment. The al-Bayan station provides 24-hour coverage of IS operations in countries including Yemen and Russian Caucasus as well as Libya. 
Propaganda material is also regularly distributed at checkpoints along the 300km stretch of coastal highway that is under IS control. Driving to the capital from eastern Libya last week, businessman Abdul Hassan said he was shocked by the visible IS presence along the road. 
“The town of Harawa was completely deserted. I counted five black ISIS flags, and they have painted their logo on the front of two government buildings,” he said. “I knew they controlled the area, but to see the reality was something unbelievable because I’ve been using that road for 40 years.”
He said he was handed a propaganda leaflet by militants manning one IS checkpoint. “It was all about the family history of IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, claiming that his ancestors were related to the Prophet Mohammad. But I don’t think it’s true. It’s like brainwashing, to make more people believe in his authority and join IS,” he said.

FactCheck: how dangerous is North Korea?


Channel 4 News
By Patrick Worrall-January 6, 2016 
In the early hours of Wednesday morning, international monitoring stations reported unusual seismic readings emanating from North Korea.
The US Geological Survey reported a 5.1 magnitude earthquake near Punggye-ri, a site where the secretive communist country has carried out previous nuclear tests.
About an hour later, North Korean state TV announced the North had successfully tested a miniaturised hydrogen bomb.
A U.S. Air Force B-52 bomber flies over Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, Sunday, Jan. 10, 2016. (Ahn Young-joon/Associated Press)
By Foster Klug and Ahn Young-Joon- 
OSAN AIR BASE, South Korea — A powerful U.S. B-52 bomber flew low over South Korea on Sunday, a clear show of force from the United States as a Cold War-style standoff deepened between its ally Seoul and North Korea following Pyongyang’s fourth nuclear test.
North Korea will read the fly-over of a bomber capable of delivering nuclear weapons — seen by an Associated Press photographer at Osan Air Base near Seoul — as a threat. Any hint of America’s nuclear power enrages Pyongyang, which links its own pursuit of atomic weapons to what it sees as past nuclear-backed moves by the United States to topple its authoritarian government.
The B-52 was joined by South Korean F-15 and U.S. F-16 fighters and returned to its base in Guam after the flight, the U.S. military said.
“This was a demonstration of the ironclad U.S. commitment to our allies in South Korea, in Japan, and to the defense of the American homeland,” said Adm. Harry B. Harris Jr., commander U.S. Pacific Command, in a statement. “North Korea’s nuclear test is a blatant violation of its international obligations.”
White House chief of staff Denis McDonough said the B-52 flight was intended to underscore to South Korean allies “the deep and enduring alliance that we have with them.” Interviewed on CNN’s “State of the Union,” McDonough said the United States would work with South Korea, Japan, China and Russia “to deeply isolate the North Koreans” and “squeeze” them until they live up to prior commitments to get rid of their nuclear weapons.
 
“That’s the baseline requirement they have to rejoin the international community,” McDonough said. “Until they do it, they’ll remain where they are which is an outcast -- unable to provide for their own people.”
The B-52 flight follows a victory tour by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to celebrate the country’s widely disputed claim of a hydrogen bomb test. Kim is seeking to rally pride in an explosion viewed with outrage by much of the world and to boost his domestic political goals.
There was no immediate reaction from North Korea’s state media to the B-52 fly-over, which also happened after North Korea’s third nuclear test in 2013.
Kim’s first public comments about last week’s test came in a visit to the country’s military headquarters, where he called the explosion “a self-defensive step” meant to protect the region “from the danger of nuclear war caused by the U.S.-led imperialists,” according to a dispatch Sunday from state-run Korean Central News Agency.
“It is the legitimate right of a sovereign state and a fair action that nobody can criticize,” Kim was reported as saying during his tour of the People’s Armed Forces Ministry.
The tone of Kim’s comments, which sought to glorify him and justify the test, is typical of state media propaganda.
But they also provide insight into North Korea’s long-running argument that it is the presence of tens of thousands of U.S. troops in South Korea and Japan, and a “hostile” U.S. policy that seeks to topple the government in Pyongyang, that make North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear weapons absolutely necessary.
 
During his tour, Kim posed for photos with leading military officials in front of statues of the two members of his family who led the country previously — Kim Jong Il and Kim Il Sung. He also sought to link the purported success of the nuclear test to a ruling Workers’ Party convention in May, the party’s first since 1980. He’s expected to use the congress to announce major state policies and shake up the country’s political elite to further consolidate his power.
World powers are looking for ways to punish the North over a nuclear test that, even if not of a hydrogen bomb, still likely pushes Pyongyang closer to its goal of a nuclear-armed missile that can reach the U.S. mainland. Many outside governments and experts question whether the blast was in fact a powerful hydrogen test.
In the wake of the test on Wednesday, the two Koreas have settled into the kind of Cold War-era standoff that has defined their relationship over the past seven decades. Since Friday, South Korea has been blasting anti-Pyongyang propaganda from huge speakers along the border, and the North is reportedly using speakers of its own in an attempt to keep its soldiers from hearing the South Korean messages.
A top North Korean ruling party official’s recent warning that the South’s broadcasts have pushed the Korean Peninsula “toward the brink of war” is typical of Pyongyang’s over-the-top rhetoric. But it is also indicative of the real fury that the broadcasts, which criticize the country’s revered dictatorship, cause in the North.
North Korea considers the South Korean broadcasts tantamount to an act of war. When Seoul Korea briefly resumed propaganda broadcasts in August after an 11-year break, Seoul says the two Koreas exchanged artillery fire.
South Korean troops, near about 10 sites where loudspeakers started blaring propaganda Friday, were on the highest alert, but have not detected any unusual movement from North Korea along the border, said an official from Seoul’s Defense Ministry, who refused to be named, citing office rules.
South Korea’s Yonhap news agency said Seoul had deployed missiles, artillery and other weapons systems near the border to swiftly deal with any possible North Korean provocation. The ministry would not confirm the report, nor another by Yonhap that said North Korea had started its own broadcasts likely meant to keep its soldiers from hearing the South Korean messages.
Officials say broadcasts from the South’s loudspeakers can travel about 10 kilometers (6 miles) during the day and 24 kilometers (15 miles) at night. That reaches many of the huge force of North Korean soldiers stationed near the border, as well as residents in border towns such as Kaesong, where the Koreas jointly operate an industrial park that has been a valuable cash source for the impoverished North.
While the South’s broadcasts also include news and pop music, much of the programming challenges North Korea’s government more directly.
“We hope that our fellow Koreans in the North will be able to live in a society that doesn’t invade individual lives as soon as possible,” a female presenter said in parts of the broadcast that officials revealed to South Korean media. “Countries run by dictatorships even try to control human instincts.”
Marathon talks by the Koreas in August eased anger and stopped the broadcasts, which Seoul started after blaming North Korean land mines for maiming two soldiers. It might be more difficult to do so now. Seoul can’t stand down easily, some analysts say, and it’s highly unlikely that the North will express regret for its nuclear test, which is a source of intense national pride.
Responding to the North’s bomb test, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry urged China, the North’s only major ally and biggest aid provider, to end “business as usual” with North Korea.
Diplomats at a U.N. Security Council emergency session pledged to swiftly pursue new sanctions. For current sanctions and any new penalties to work, better cooperation and stronger implementation from China is seen as key.
It may take weeks or longer to confirm or refute the North’s claim that it successfully tested a hydrogen bomb, which would mark a major and unanticipated advance for its still-limited nuclear arsenal.

Pakistan tells U.S. that Pathankot attack probe will "bring out the truth"

Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif looks on during a lecture on Sri Lanka-Pakistan Relations in Colombo, Sri Lanka January 5, 2016. REUTERS/Dinuka LiyanawattePakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif looks on during a lecture on Sri Lanka-Pakistan Relations in Colombo, Sri Lanka January 5, 2016.
ReutersSun Jan 10, 2016
Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has told U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry his country is swiftly investigating who was behind last week's attack on an Indian air force base, and that it would "bring out the truth".
The assault on the base near the Pakistan border has thrown into doubt diplomatic talks planned for later this month between the nuclear-armed rivals.
Kerry, speaking to Sharif by telephone, said he hoped the attack would not derail the talks that he said were in the interests of regional security, according to a statement from the Pakistani prime minister's office late on Saturday.
"The Prime Minister told Secretary Kerry that we are swiftly carrying out investigations in a transparent manner and will bring out the truth," it said. "The world will see our effectiveness and sincerity in this regard."
A meeting between the foreign secretaries of India and Pakistan had been scheduled for Jan. 15, but it is unclear if it will still happen, after six militants launched an assault on Jan. 2 against the base and killed seven security personnel.
India has called on Islamabad to take "prompt and decisive" action against militants it blames for the assault, which only ended after a four-day operation to secure the base.
New Delhi has long accused Islamabad of supporting militant groups and helping them to launch attacks inside India, an accusation Pakistan rejects.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday visited the base, at Pathankot in the northern state of Punjab, where he was briefed on how security forces had responded to end the attack.
It remains unclear how the attackers infiltrated the fortified base, which has a 24-km (15-mile) perimeter surrounded by a 3-metre (10-foot) wall topped with concertina wire.    
(Reporting by Tommy Wilkes; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)

Pathankot Conspiracy

army_india
The working abilities of the Indian soldiers, army officers and the policemen are being strongly criticized by the Indian public for the last many years. Even the Indian media is replete with the news regarding moral bankruptcy and professional inabilities of the Indian security officials inside the country as well as in the Indian Occupied Kashmir.
by Ali Sukhanver
( January 10, 2016, Islamabad, Sri Lanka Guardian) According to The Hindu, the National Investigation Agency of India has issued summons to a Punjab Superintendent of Police, who was allegedly abducted by terrorists involved in the Pathankot attack. The probe agency has picked up some foot prints in the fields of a border village and the IAF base in Pathankot and sent them to central forensic lab for matching. Official sources did not rule out the possibility of subjecting the alleged Superintendent of Police to lie detector test. Involvement of an official belonging to a security agency is not only very much disappointing but also very much alarming. It is disappointing in a sense that the terrorists have become so strong in India that they succeeded in luring a high official to help them out in a terrorist activity. Certainly the government of India and the intelligence agencies of India will have to be more vigilant and more alert in keeping an eye on all officials working in security agencies of India along with the terrorists.
Terrorism in every form and in every shape is condemnable. Be it Pakistan or be it India, terrorists are nowhere loved and admired but just disliking and hatred for terrorists is not all that we need; we need a lot more. The recent terrorist attack on India’s Pathankot Air Base is certainly the worst example of terrorism and this act of terrorism has been strongly condemned by everyone including Pakistan. It is the need of time that precautionary measures must be taken to avoid repeated occurrence of such incidents in future. But at the same time it is also an important requirement to trace and analyze the facts and reasons behind such type of incidents. A very notable fact regarding the Pathankot Episode is that the Indian authorities took more than four days in getting the Air Base free from the possession of the terrorists. World renowned defense analyst Rahul Bedi has very ironically commented upon the in-efficacy and inertness of the security troops deployed there at the Pathankot Air Base. He said in a recent article, ‘It took Indian authorities four days to put down a deadly attack on the Pathankot air force base near the Pakistani border which killed seven Indian soldiers and wounded another 22. The inept handling of the security operation can only be described as a debacle.’
A prominent Indian journalist Ajai Shukla says in an article, ‘National Security Advisor Ajit Doval’s inept handling has transformed what should have been a short, intelligence-driven, counter-terrorist operation into something that increasingly seems like a debacle.’ In short the terrorists did whatever they wanted to do and on the other hand the security forces could do nothing but prolong the duration of the episode. This situation no doubt puts a very big question mark on the abilities and expertise of the security institutions of India. Unfortunately instead of taking the security institution to task, the Indian politicians, the hi-ups of the Indian government and some segments from the Indian media are wasting all their power and force in framing Pakistan behind the scene and in dragging Pakistan into the situation for nothing. The NDTV reported on 5th January 2016, ‘After 80 hours, the operations have been completed at the Pathankot Air Force Base which was attacked over the weekend by terrorists believed to be from Pakistan.’ The same day, The Hindu referred to the statement of Defense Minister Manohar Parrikar who said addressing the media, ‘The National Investigation Agency NIA has leads that some of the weapons used by the terrorists were of Pakistani-make.’ But at the same time there are analysts in India who are of the opinion that the operational blunders committed by Indian security forces during the November 2008 militant attack on Mumbai, in which 166 people died, were mindlessly repeated in Pathankot due to a lack of well defined procedures.
The working abilities of the Indian soldiers, army officers and the policemen are being strongly criticized by the Indian public for the last many years. Even the Indian media is replete with the news regarding moral bankruptcy and professional inabilities of the Indian security officials inside the country as well as in the Indian Occupied Kashmir.
According to the Hindustan Times, three inebriated army men gang-raped a young girl of 14 who was traveling on the Howrah-Amritsar Express. She was a resident of Kolkata, boarded the Punjab-bound train at Howrah on Sunday 27th December but entered the coach reserved for army personnel by mistake. One of the soldiers forced her to drink alcohol and when she was completely drunk the two others raped her in the bath-room of the train. She was reported to have been rescued by the Railway Protection Force and Government Railway Police when she was found unconscious at Madhupur in Jharkhand, social workers went to her aid and she allegedly identified her attackers from CCTV footage from the train. A soldier with a loose moral character and with weaker professional skills is an unwanted burden on every army all over the world. If the government of India is serious in avoiding Pathankot like incidents, it will have to upgrade the professional skills and moral standards of its police and army.

Oil Prices Have Hit a 10-Year Low. They’re Not Going to Stay There.

With demand still growing and output finally shrinking, today’s cheap oil could nearly triple in price in coming years.
Oil Prices Have Hit a 10-Year Low. They’re Not Going to Stay There.
BY KEITH JOHNSON-JANUARY 6, 2016
Never mind roiling tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the Islamic State’s continued assault on Libyan oil infrastructure, or North Korea’s purported detonation of a hydrogen bomb. Crude prices hit their lowest levels in more than a decade on Wednesday, plunging through a rotted floor and falling more than 5 percent in trading in New York and London to about $34 a barrel — culminating a dizzying crash from heights of more than $100 a barrel in the summer of 2014.
Which makes for an odd time to start worrying about all the things that threaten to drive oil prices sharply higher. Yet that’s exactly what many in the industry are starting to do.
The current oversupply of oil, which is keeping prices low, is also setting the stage for oil’s own rebound. The U.S. shale boom, which has gushed more than 4 million barrels of oil a day onto global markets, is fizzling, with U.S. production this year set to shrink for the first time since the bonanza began. Investment across the global oil industry is in free-fall like it hasn’t been for 30 years, which makes it harder to keep today’s wells pumping and puts tomorrow’s projects on ice. Global demand for oil, meanwhile, is still growing, if not quite as fast as last year’s heated pace.
In other words, an oil market that currently looks ridiculously glutted is poised to tighten up dramatically later this year and could send oil prices back to the triple digits with all sorts of nasty consequences for a still-wheezing global economy.
“Nobody is more bearish than we are in the short term, and nobody is more bullish than we are for 2018, 2019, and beyond,” said Robert McNally, president of the Rapidan Group, an energy consultancy. The cocktail of shrinking supply and rising demand, coupled with the kinds of geopolitical shocks that these days pass unnoticed for oil traders, means today’s cheap oil might soon become just a fond memory.
“Oil will be back in the $100s by the end of the decade,” McNally said.
In the meantime, all signs point to even lower prices for crude. Asian economies, the motor of global growth, and demand for crude are both stumbling. Prolonged malaise in countries like China could further dampen already tepid expectations for oil-demand growth this year, which would push prices even lower.
Meanwhile, oil storage tanks around the world are brimming already and getting fuller because the world still pumps more oil every day than it burns. The U.S. oil storage facility in Cushing, Oklahoma, holds more crude now than ever before. At the same time, Iran, sidelined from oil markets since 2012, is gearing up for a return as Western sanctions are lifted as part of last year’s nuclear deal. If Iran is able to increase oil output and exports more quickly than experts expect, that could further flood a glutted market.
And through it all, major oil producers — both those inside OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, and those outside, like Russia — continue to pump with abandon.
But low prices, which did nothing to discourage oil producers last year, are finally starting to take a toll. Thanks to heroic efficiency gains, U.S. shale oil production miraculously continued to climb last year despite plunging prices. But there aren’t any more rabbits in that hat: The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects U.S. shale production to drop this year by about 1 million barrels a day from last April’s peak. Oil rigs in North Dakota’s shale patch, for example, have fallen to theirlowest level since 2009 because producers that struggled to break even with $50 oil cannot make ends meet when crude fetches $30-something a barrel.
Overall, after record-setting growth last year, non-OPEC oil production is expected to shrink this year by about 600,000 barrels a day, the first contraction since 2008.
That alone would make for a much tighter oil market. Experts figure the world pumps about 1.5 million barrels a day more than it consumes. But demand is expected to grow this year by at least 1.2 million barrels a day, nearly absorbing the whole surplus. Remove another 600,000 barrels a day of supply, and there’s no surplus at all. Wood MacKenzie, the oil and natural gas consultants, expect oil inventories to start shrinking increasingly rapidly in the second half of 2016.
The price plunge has set the stage for other, longer-term impacts by discouraging capital investment across the industry. Oil companies need to invest in existing projects to counteract the natural decline of older oil fields by, for example, injecting tired wells with fluids to maintain pressure and keep output steady. Massive investment is also needed to fill future pipelines with big, ambitious projects like deepwater rigs or oil fields in the Arctic, which will be needed to meet global demand in the next decade.
That investment is drying up. Big-ticket projects, like Shell’s gamble in the Alaskan Arctic, have been iced. Countries like Iraq are scrambling to find the cash to pay for much-needed oil-infrastructure improvements. Brazil’s Petrobras, whose deepwater fields represented the industry’s most ambitious investment plan, is battening the hatches and slashing future production estimates. Canada’s oil sands have gone from boom to bust in the space of a year.
Overall, capital expenditure in the oil and gas industry shrank dramatically last year and is set for another 25 percent contraction this year, figuresMoody’s, the ratings agency. Years of back-to-back belt-tightening are almost unheard of in the industry; the last time it happened was during the oil-price collapse of the mid-1980s.
“It may take several years, but all those capex reductions will really start to bite,” said Jason Bordoff, a former energy advisor to President Barack Obama’s administration and now director of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.
A tighter market would mean gradually higher prices down the road at any rate. But it could also set the stage for dramatic price spikes when something went awry, like the recent heated confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia or the Islamic State’s relentless assault on Libya’s teetering oil industry. That’s because the oil industry’s natural shock absorber — spare production capacity that can quickly be called on to fill any unexpected shortfalls — isn’t really there anymore.
OPEC’s spare capacity is at historically low levels because everybody is pumping flat out to make what money they can with low prices. Estimates vary, but the amount of extra oil that OPEC, essentially Saudi Arabia, could quickly get to the market is estimated at between 1.25 million barrels a day and 2.3 million barrels a day, a hairbreadth margin in a global oil market that pumps almost 100 million barrels a day.
With little buffer set aside for a stormy day, a taut market could be especially vulnerable to just the kinds of geopolitical shocks that have been proliferating in recent months, from the Persian Gulf toSyria to Russia to theSouth China Sea.
“The oil glut has dwarfed any focus on spare capacity,” said Richard Mallinson, an analyst with Energy Aspects, a consultancy in London.
“But with such a narrow buffer, you wouldn’t even need a big disruption to see a spike. A few little things could really wreak havoc.”
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