Husband Like Ranil & Sister Like Chandrika…?

By Chaminda Weerawardhana –June 4, 2015 

Dr. Chaminda Weerawardhana

A video circulates in social media networks, featuring Dr Dayan Jayatilleka(hereinafter referred to as ‘the speaker’), a strong supporter of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, delivering a speech in Sinhala at a pro-Rajapaksa public meeting. The speaker, it appears, actively supports the ‘bring back Mahinda’ movement. The speaker asks several questions that echo rather macho and derogatory views on two public figures, namely Ranil Wickremesinghe and Chandrika Bandaranaike.

In a rather cheap effort to amuse the gallery, the speaker asks the audience as to whom they would choose between Mahinda Rajapaksa and Ranil Wickremesinghe for a sibling or a paterfamilias. The answer from an audience composed of diehard Rajapaksa supporters is not difficult to guess. The above question is intertwined with the next one – whether the audience would prefer a ‘husband’ (swami purushaya) such as Ranil. The only logical inference is that the word ‘husband’ here implies a partner who is cisgender male and heterosexual, and that the question is targeted at cisgender heterosexual females in the audience, as the concept of equal marriage as such is nowhere near the pro-Rajapaksa faction’s political agenda.

Referring to Mrs Chandrika Bandaranaike (CB), the speaker also asks the audience if it would accept having a mother, a sister or a spouse like the former president. This again passes for a derogatory inference, reminiscent of Victor Ivan’s booklet of insults targeting CB, in which a great deal of effort is made to question CB’s morality and personal choices.

If someone indirectly, albeit persistently evokes a political opponent’s personal choices, lifestyles or associated rumours, does that not amount to overtly discriminatory and essentially undiplomatic behaviour? In this case, the reference to Ranil is homophobic, as evidenced in the question ‘would one want someone like Ranil for a husband?’ Asked with an unmistakably cynical smile on the speaker’s face, this question touches upon a popular perception of Ranil’s sexuality, something that conservative segments of the electorate perceives in a negative light and as worthy of insults. If the speaker took issue with Ranil’s pro-Western credentials, the 2002-2004 peace process, or leadership skills, such issues can be raised with concrete evidence and in a spirit of decent, sane political engagement. When critiquing Ranil as a politician, there is absolutely no need whatsoever to make any direct or indirect inference to Ranil’s sexuality or personal life.Read More

No confidence motion against P.M.of minority government handed over- some have signed twice..!

(Lanka-e-News- 05.June.2015, 11.25PM) The no confidence motion against prime minister (P.M.) Ranil Wickremesinghe supposed to be signed by 118 opposition members was handed over to Dhammika Dasanayake , the general secretary of parliament today , Friday (05).

A group including Bandula Gunawardena , Manusha Nanayakkara and  Ranjith Soysa the sordid unscrupulous slaves in parliament of Mahinda Rajapakse have handed over this motion to the general secretary.

Though it was claimed this motion was signed by 113 members , and then again claimed as signed by 118 members, in truth it was signed by only 108 out of 225 members according to reports reaching Lanka e news. 

In accordance with the numbers serially , there are 112 signatures , but in the copies bearing the signatures , though Ramesh Pathirana has signed as the 112 th member , in between ,the numbers have been camouflaged with fake signatures , before the motion was submitted to the parliamentary secretary.

The most grave deception in the motion is : Sumedha Jayasena and Lohan Ratwatte have each signed twice. Lohan has signed twice as 39th and 75 th signatories , while Sumedha Jayasena has signed twice as 40 th and 93 rd signatories 

The next fraud is , there are no signatures for  so called 4th and 44 th members , and those have been concealed.

The first , second and third signatories are DIMU Jayaratne ,Dinesh Gunawardena and Vasudeva Nanayakkara respectively. There being nobody as the fourth signatory , the fifth signatory  Gamini Lokuge is deceitfully shown  as the fourth signatory too.

In similar  fraudulent manner ,Hisbullah has signed as the  43 rd , and the 45 th signatory is Jayantha Ketagoda , while the intervening 44 th position remains without any signature though it is camouflaged  as having a signature.

These manipulations and camouflages are reminiscent of how the signatures of P.M. Ranil Wickrekmesinghe and president Maithripala were forged in order to win last elections fraudulently by Mahinda Rajapakse and his shameless slaves .The aforementioned deceitful maneuvers only confirm that the   confidence motion signature fraud  is either a deliberate calculated one  or these Rajapakse shameless slavish buffoons are incapable of counting up to 112.

It is Manusha Nanyakkara who had fully committed himself to this cut throat task of collecting signatures for this no confidence motion. It is well to recall at this juncture this is the  backstabbing hypocritical scoundrel who entered parliament via the national list of Ranil Wickremesinghe at the 2010 parliamentary elections. In other words , he ruthlessly and without an iota of shame betrayed the UNP voters when he later somersaulted to the Rajapakse camp after creeping  into parliament on the UNP votes 

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by     (2015-06-05 18:01:06)

No one answers my calls now, Mervyn laments!

Friday, 05 June 2015

Former public relations minister Mervyn Silva had telephoned several wealthy businessmen friendly with him in order to book a hotel for a family trip to Kataragama.

He first called Aitken Spence hotel chain’s chairman Harry Jayawardena. As there was no response, he then called the chairman of Jetwing Hotels chain. Since, he too, did not respond, Mervyn called Nimal and Dhammika Perera.

In the past, all these businessmen used to promptly answer his calls, but now they had not even cared to call back. A severely dejected Mervyn told his crony ‘Lokka’ about the situation he was in now. “Not even a dog answers my calls.” He asked, “Why, minister, what is it you want?” when Mervyn told him about what he wanted, ‘Lokka’ advised him to call Saranapala of Kollupitiya and book a room at his hotel in Ella.

Soon afterwards, Mervyn called Saranapala and said, “Let me stay for one day at your hotel. But, Machan, you should charge from me. Or else, I will not come.” Saranapala replied, “OK. Minister, it is just for one day. I will keep two rooms ready. You go.” Mervyn and his family stayed at Saranapala’s hotel for one week without paying a cent. Hereafter, Saranapala too, will not answer Mevyn’s calls.

Mervyn, who gives the money he has amassed through illegal means to borrowers through middlemen, recently faced a big problem. His key broker ‘Kalu Ranja’ had given Rs. 40 million to a businessman a few years ago. The businessman had been paying the interest on time, but later suffered from a mental illness and went mad. Losing his money and interest due, Mervyn had gone to ‘Kalu Ranja’s home with a group thugs and tried his pranks there. Angered by that, members of the businessman’s family told him, “Minister, don’t come to put parts which you put in the past. This is Yaha Paalane. Now, the Yama Paalane is over. Not even a dog is afraid of you now. Once this man becomes well, settle your deals. If you come here once again, we will not let you go,” and expelled him.

A Reply To The Israeli Ambassador

By Hameed Abdul Karim –June 5, 2015 

Hameed Abdul Karim

When the Israeli ambassador to Sri Lanka Daniel Carmon said that Israel was built from scratch we can assume he was being selective in his choice of history (Daily Mirror Saturday May 23, 2015). A lot of nations have been built from scratch. Take Singapore, for example. Lee Kuan Yew built his nation from nothing to what it is today without any foreign aid or handouts. Israel has been lucky in that quarter having received millions of dollars in aid and outright grants from the U.S since its creation. Today, U.S grants to Israel stands at US $ 3.5 billion every year, not to mention some handouts from European countries. Israel is what it is today, thanks to the largesse of the U.S at the expense of its own people – 40 million American citizens are classified as poor. That figure is eight times more than the entire Jewish population in Israel. Israeli poverty figures are virtually non-existent, thanks to Christian charity, though the cost of living there is becoming a bit of a bother. Adding to Israel’s good fortune was the wealth the Jews stole from the fleeing Palestinians who had to leave everything they owned or run the risk of being killed.

Deir Yassin, a Christian village was the first to suffer severely at the hand of the Zionist terror horror. The village was sacked after dozens of unarmed villagers were lined up against the walls of their humble abodes and shot dead in cold blood. This as well as other massacres is well recorded and no Israeli revisionist, like the ambassador, can ever take this away from the minds of the Palestinians and millions the world over, though Israelis may be brainwashed by their revisionists to believe the ‘chosen people’ could commit no such horrible atrocity.

Revisionists

Today, however, even the Israeli revisionists are being challenged by Israelis themselves. Mr. Carmon belittles Jewish intellectuals like Norman Finklestein and Noam Chomsky when he casually dismisses their claims of Israeli apartheid with just a few remarks like ‘Chomsky’s reactions would be different if he were subjected to fierce terrorism endangering his well being’. And yet there are nearly five million Palestinian refugees living in neigbouring countries and elsewhere after the Israelis expelled them from their homes in 1947 in what the Palestinians call the Nakba. Somehow we are supposed to believe the ambassador when he says the Israelis are the ‘cowboys’ we used to see in Western movies and the Palestinians are the ‘Injuns’.

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7% growth in 1H 2015, predicts CB Governor

Saturday, 6 June 2015

• Says hopeful of reaching $ 4,000 per capita income mark by year end
• Recovering agriculture will compensate for slowing construction industry 
• Wants fresh focus on remittances including new data and payment methods from banks  

‘It’s all looking up’ seems to be the message by Central Bank Governor Arjuna Mahendran – Pic by Lasantha Kumara

By Charumini de Silva
Concurring with growth projections made by international monetary organisations, Central Bank Governor Arjuna Mahendran is confident Sri Lanka’s economy will average around 7% during the first half of 2015, with growth picking up in subsequent years.
“By the end of six months this year, we will average around 7%. There’s nothing to worry,” a confident Governor told the Daily FT.
“I think things are looking good. Once we hit $ 4,000 per capita, the economy will shoot up. I am hopeful that we reach that level by the end of this year, in which case we can look at 8% to 9% economic growth in the next five years,” he added.

Sri Lanka’s economic growth is expected to decline to 6.9% in 2015 due to slowing construction activity, according to the World Bank, which has also warned private sector sentiment would be cautious till economic policies of the new Government stabilise. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) earlier in the year gave a growth outlook of 6-7%, and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) a growth of 7%. The country grew by 7.4% in 2014. Further explaining economic factors, Mahendran said that the agriculture sector was recovering after the drought last year, which was a good indication. However, he noted the construction sector had slowed down, mainly because the new Government was reviewing some of the infrastructure projects. 

However, he pointed out that agriculture picking up and construction slowing down would balance out the difference.
“That way I think it will keep the economy evenly balanced,” he said. 

Further clarifying his point, the Governor said private construction such as housing was booming.
“Exports are doing well. Now that the rupee is down by 2% against the dollar, that will also help competitiveness and exports will continue to grow. Exports and FDIs are the two areas we need to improve on. Those are the two areas we are focusing on. The Minister of industry and Commerce has his plans in the export sector. The BOI is developing its plans for FDIs. With those two I think in the medium term we could go beyond 7.5%.”

Commenting on remittances, Mahendran said that the country received a record $ 7 billion last year and would continue to grow. “Remittances are the critical component that really saved the economy for the last 10 years during and after the war,” he added.
“We are like the Philippines and the Mexicans, which are countries with huge expatriate populations and that is a different kind of an economic model from other countries where they stay back home and grow their own industries. We have to factor that in,” he noted. 

“Being an expatriate myself, I’m very keen on giving more opportunity to grow their own economy. At the end of the day, we all love our country. We send the money earned to relatives, to invest or to build houses. So we must grow this channel,” he pointed out.
The Governor said he would continue to focus on the importance of banks establishing a system for expatriate workers to easily remit their funds.
Citing an example, he said: “In Philippines if a housemaid is working in Dubai she can directly and easily remit money every month on her mobile phone to a property developer who is building an apartment. The same way we could setup a payment system where I could remit some money via my mobile to my Sri Lankan account or to a Sri Lankan property developer.”
With such easy schemes, the Governor expressed confidence Sri Lanka could attract foreign exchange. He added that discussions were ongoing with banks to set up similar systems.
“We are talking to the banks. We are working on some options and I’ll announce it in a few months,” he assured.

Mahendran also noted the Central Bank was attempting to conduct more detailed studies on the makeup of remittances, including regional and gender divisions, which would help in meeting specific market needs.
“We know that 50% is from the Middle East and the rest from other parts of the world. But who are the type of people who are sending those remittances and what’s the proportion between housemaids and other professionals? For that sort of information, we actually have to send people out and do a survey or ask the local banks receiving remittances to give us some details. We are starting that study at the Economic Research Department,” he said.

Prasad Kariyawasam in America defeats the Good Governance

Friday, 05 June 2015 00:50

Reports reaching us from Washington state that the Sri Lankan Ambassador in the United States discarding the policies of the Good Governance is following his former predecessor Jaliya Wicramasooriya of the Rajapaksa regime and started to appoint his close associates without obliging the recommendations of the foreign ministry.

Supposedly anticipating the release of our news Deceiving Mangala, Prasad Kariyawasam plays double game” as a slander from the embassy he has called one of the embassy staff and severely castigated him and said “I will not dance according to the desires of the wishes of the web sites, they cannot teach diplomacy to me, whoever say anything I will do what I want, don’t try to backbite and get caught” and reappointed Damith De Silwa who is being named as “Jaliya’s sneak” in the embassy. Following his reappointment a sum of US dollar 2162.91 has been paid as wages for this month. Normally a staff officer raises US dollar 1394 as monthly wages. Staffs in the embassy questions the additional US dollar 768.91 has been paid may be due to sneaking and following Jaliya’s sneaker became Prasad’s sneaker.

The diplomatic circle reiterates when foreign minister Mangala Samaraweera has allowed his diplomatic ambassadors to operate independently with utmost trust, people such as Prasad Kariyawasam is mischievously using the foreign minister’s statesmanship for granted and reinstating the corrupt policies of the former regime jeopardizing the current Good Governance.

Prasad Kariyawaasam is such a nincompoop despite having witnessed the attack launched by the former monitoring foreign minister Sajin Vaas Gunawardane against the former Sri Lankan ambassador to the UK Dr. Chris Nonis the latter during the inquiry said there was no such assault made but Dr. Chris Nonis fell down as he slipped his foot.

‘Knowing how Mahinda killed with his own hands , if he is made P.M. he will use a bullet on me and become president’ -Maithri

 (Lanka-e-News -03.June.2015, 11.45PM)  ‘If Mahinda Rajapakse the deposed president who is now in a most humiliated and  enraged state is made the prime minister , in order to become the president next , no constitutional amendment nor any laws will be  necessary for him , he will need only a bullet to shoot and kill me,’ said the incumbent president Maithripala  Sirisena while emphasizing that he is fully aware of that.

The president requested   the leaders of the UPFA party not to exert pressure on him to appoint cruel individuals as P.M. in a country where it is common knowledge what cannot be achieved via the constitution and legal processes are achieved by the bullet. The president made this unsavory announcement with  deep regret. 

If Mahinda Rajapakse becomes the P.M. ,by the time I go overseas and return , he would have murdered the people of Sri Lanka (SL) and when I return he would murder me too. I am not that foolish. I will not allow room for that. I am right now keeping my fist  tight. If I release what will happen to the Rajapakses can be seen. So , please do not work in a manner  to force me to release my grip,’ the president exhorted.

The president issued these warnings when he had a discussion with  the UPFA leaders recently. While all the other leaders were keeping silent , DEW Gunasekera said in support of Maithripala , ‘if the president has dissolved the parliament within a week of his appointment as president on January 8 th , all of you could have known what would have happened to you.’ 

The president then boldly and in no uncertain terms went on to announce , there is a sufficiently intelligent group within the SLFP to take independent and intelligent decisions pertaining to its internal affairs  without kowtowing to pressures applied by outside parties , and the intervention of Vasudeva, Dinesh , Wimal Weerawansa , Udaya  Gammanpila are unnecessary and unwarranted , while adding that it is best if these outsiders clearly understood this. Vasudeva who has lately become most disdainfully aggressive and disgracefully foul  mouthed - a common eccentric weakness among some aging individuals particularly discarded political renegades, shockingly remained crestfallen and dumbfounded.

At the next general elections, the nominations under the SLFP or UPFA will be according to the wishes of the party leaders . It is not possible to dupe the people through artificial media circuses as in the past in order to boost the image deceitfully. It is something he knows well and truly based on his experience , and it is important  the leaders of the UPFA also clearly and deeply understand this. He feels sorry for  the  slaves  who during the Rajapakse reign through that slavery and sordid subservience sought to achieve their self seeking opportunistic agendas unconscionably compromising national interests, the president explained at length  .

After this discussion concluded , the UNP deputy minister Ranjan Ramanayake arrived to meet the president personally. When the discussion centered on what the president related to the party leaders, Ranjan inquired , ‘how is that you spoke with such certainty that Mahinda Rajapakse will murder you?’ The president’s answer was :during the by -election at Mulkirigala , Mahinda carrying a gun himself shot and killed .At that moment two individuals were dead , and I was some distance away.  Hence  I know how he murdered , and that is why I am saying this.’

Ranjan in a state of shock asked , how did he then escape ? The witnesses were threatened that they will also be killed . It is John Amaratunge of your party who saved him then. By giving contradictory evidence that the victim was killed by shooting from a top of a tree , the case was discharged, the president told Ranjan.

Mahinda after winning the case at that time  even contemplated joining the UNP. Even today John and Mahinda are good friends,’ president said disclosing an old secret. 

When Ranjan inquired whether or not to reveal this story to the media , the president has replied , ‘this story was related  by me to you to be conveyed to the media’.

Ranjan when relating this episode to Lanka e news said, the president pointed out , he cannot forget that the members of the SLFP who voted for Mahinda Rajapakse on 8 th January voted to bury him and his family six feet underground. Hence, the president advised Ranjan  to unrelentingly announce all the time that  he is a UNP president .

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by     (2015-06-03 22:23:30)

WikiLeaks: Gota Publicly Admitted He Called Daily Mirror Editor

June 6, 2015

“Defense Secretary Rajapaksa reportedly threatened Daily Mirror Editor Champika Liyanarachchi following the publication of a series of articles on the activities of the LTTE-breakaway Karuna group in the East. After the call from Gothabaya, Liyanarachchi contacted Karuna directly. Karuna assured her that his cadres would not harm her and added that he would complain to Gothabaya in writing about the incident. Gothabaya has since publicly admitted he called Liyanarachchi but denied that he threatened the editor and expressed his concern at the media’s intolerance of constructive criticism. Presidsent Rajapaksa reassured her that the GSL wishes her no harm and expressed regret at the Defense Secretary’s conduct. This most recent example of Government of Sri Lanka (GSL) attempts to suppress unflattering media reports confirms other accounts of the Defense Secretary personally issuing threats” the US Embassy Colombo informed Washington.

Champika

The Colombo Telegraph found the related leaked cable from the WikiLeaksdatabase. The cable is classified as “SECRET” and discuses Sri Lanka’s media suppression situation. The cable was written by the AmbassadorRobert O. Blake on April 19, 2007.

The ambassador wrote; “A less detailed version of this story was made public on April 18 when it appeared in other local newspapers and on the ‘BBC Sinhala’ website, as well as on the LTTE website Tamilnet. The Morning Leader reported that Rajapaksa called Liyanarachchi, criticized ‘anti-government stories’ published in the Daily Mirror, and added that Karuna was “not very happy” with the newspaper’s reporting. A separate Embassy contact told us that in late February Gothabaya made a similar call to Mr.Ranjith Wijewardene, Chairman of the Wijeya Group, the company that owns the Daily Mirror. Gothabaya threatened Wijewardane and complained about the disloyalty of the newspaper. In this case as well, the President later called Wijewardane to downplay the incident and explain that Gothabaya’s bark was worse than his bite. Our contact said that this is actually a common practice for the brothers and described it as their ‘good cop, bad cop strategy.'”

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Hearing Mahinda’s defeat Thondaman has wept rolling on the floor!

Friday, 05 June 2015

After hearing the release of the presidential election results secretary of the Lanka Workers Congress and the former minister Arumugam Thondaman unable to bear the defeat of the Rajapaksa is reported to have rolled on the floor and wept.

A provincial minister who stood by the side of the incident has called a businessmen who supports their party has narrated the incident and laughed.

Arumugam Thondaman who was happy in the morning anticipating the former president would win has got agitated following hearing the news that Maithripala Sirisena has won and said “I am finished and what can I do now”

Thondaman has got nervous thinking about his arbitrary decisions he made behalf of CWC. The person who has influenced Thondman to take such a hasty decision is a female relative of Thondaman named Roopa Magandi Ram Mohan from Kerala who was serving as a consultant to the Thondaman Foundation.

This Roopa Magandi is a lady who deployed a false astrologer and made Mahinda Rajapaksa to believe that he would win and a acquired large sum of money. Later she has deceived Mahinda Rajapaksa by giving a psychological bribe through Thindaman. Following the acquisition of money this Roopa Magandi is enjoying a luxurious life in India.

The CWC deputy leader and the central provincial MP Udaya Kumar got disgusted over the decision of Thondaman has resigned from the CWC and joined the UNP.

Arumugam Thondaman has joined with the CWC nominated leader Muththusivalingam and Roopa Magandi Ram Mohan and destroying the Ceylon Workers Congress which was dedicatedly built by his grandfather Soumya Moorthi Thondaman.

We would like to inform our readers that CWC party supporters are sending lots of factual information about Arumugam Thondaman which we would expose following conformation.

Up to 50 injured in blast at Kurdish opposition party rally in Turkey

Injured people get first aid after an explosion during an election rally of pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) in Diyarbakir, Turkey, June 5, 2015. An explosion apparently caused by an electrical fault injured several people at an opposition party rally in Turkey's...

DIYARBAKIR, TURKEY | BY SEYHMUS CAKAN-Fri Jun 5, 2015 

An explosion injured as many as 50 people at an opposition rally in Turkey's mainly Kurdish city of Diyarbakir on Friday, two days before a general election, and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said it was unclear if the blast was an accident or an attack.

Turkish officials earlier had blamed the explosion on a faulty power transformer at the rally site but officials later ruled that possibility out. At least 50 people were injured, Health Minister Mehmet Muezzinoglu said, according to state-run Anatolia News Agency.

Tensions have run high as the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) campaigns to become the first party with Kurdish origins to win seats in parliament in Sunday's election. Previously, Kurdish MPs have joined the legislature as independents.

The HDP needs to overcome a 10 percent vote threshold, and some opinion polls show it could seize enough seats to deprive Davutoglu's AK Party of the majority it has enjoyed since sweeping to power in 2002.

"It is not yet clear whether this was an attack or an accident. Whatever caused it, we will find out," Davutoglu, referring to Friday's explosion in Diyarbakir, told supporters at a rally in the city of Gaziantep.

Pakistan shifts trial account in shooting of Malala; all but 2 freed

FILE - In this Friday, Oct. 10, 2014, file photo, Malala Yousafzai poses with a bouquet after speaking during a media conference at the Library of Birmingham, in Birmingham, England, after she was named as winner of The Nobel Peace Prize. (AP Photo/Rui Vieira, File) (Rui Vieira/AP)

By Brian Murphy-June 5 

All but two of the Pakistani militants charged in the shooting of teenage activist Malala Yousafzai have been freed, authorities in Pakistan said Friday, sharply revising earlier statements that 10 suspects had been sentenced to life in prison for the 2012 attack.

The new account of the April verdicts said that the eight defendants were freed because of lack of evidence. But the statement did not explain why authorities were previously reported as announcing that all 10 had confessed to taking part in the assault and had been convicted and sentenced in the closed-door trial.

Gunmen believed linked to Pakistan’s Taliban stormed a bus in October 2012 and shot Yousafzai, then 15, and two classmates in Swat, where militants maintained a strong grip at the time. Yousafzai, a co-winner of the Nobel Peace Prize last year, was targeted because of her push for education for girls and women.

Yousafzai, who now lives in Britain, underwent extensive medical treatment.

In late April, public prosecutor Sayed Naeem was reported as saying that 10 suspected militants had been convicted by an anti-terrorism court and each given a life term. At the time, he said all 10 confessed to a role in the shootings.

The Reuters news agency quoted Salim Khan, a senior police official, as now saying that eight suspects were freed by the court because of a “lack of proof against them” — suggesting possible shortcomings in the police investigation or other flaws in the case.

Terrorism-related trials are often closed to the public in Pakistan because judges, lawyers and others fear retribution from militants.

In Yousafzai’s book, “I am Malala,” she wrote about how militant groups seek to limit schooling and opportunities for girls.

“I had two options. One was to remain silent and wait to be killed,” Yousafzai said in her Nobel acceptance speech in December. “And the second was to speak up and then be killed. I chose the second one. I decided to speak up.”

The Great Iranian Low-Enriched Uranium Stockpile Panic of June 2015

People. People! Calm the hell down and stop worrying about the negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program.

BY JEFFREY LEWIS-JUNE 4, 2015

I was recently in New York, rattling the tin cup for the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. A big aspect of my talk was highlighting our open-source work, especially with regard to how it might help verify a deal. You may remember a certain alleged centrifuge facilitythat seems to make identification cards.

One of the people at the talk had a very good question. And by very good, I mean it left me dumbfounded on how to answer. “I don’t trust the Wall Street Journal or the New York Times to tell me what is going on with the Iran negotiations,” he said. “What’s a reliable news source?”

Uh, well, um. Yeah. So, about that.

I had nothing for him. There is something broken about how reporters and pundits are covering these negotiations, something that wastes a lot of our time speculating about things that are knowable and reduces our conversation to little more than cheerleading for or against a deal. I am not quite sure it is the fault of either the reporters or the pundits, but collectively we’re not helping. And I include myself in this category.

I was reminded of that desultory conversation on Tuesday morning as I perused a very odd story by David Sanger and Bill Broad in the New York Times. There is nothing wrong with the article, exactly, but there are a number of interpretations in it that struck me as odd — and that speak to what I mean about how our public discourse is unhelpful. (It also triggered aminor Twitter war between David Sanger and State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf.)

A few days ago, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released one of its quarterly reports on the implementation of safeguards in Iran, which my friends at the Institute for Science and International Security placed online. The report contains lots of information about Iran’s nuclear programs under safeguards, including the size of its stockpile of low-enriched uranium (LEU). Since the last report, in February, the amount of low-enriched uranium has increased about 10 percent, to 8714.7 kilograms.

Despite Sanger and Broad’s analysis that “Western officials and experts cannot quite figure out why” this increase has happened, it’s actually very easy to see why. Iran’s program was limited for the duration of negotiations (“frozen,” if you must) to a certain number of centrifuges that are allowed to continue producing LEU. Those centrifuges produced about 800 kg of LEU since the last report. One can create a more detailed accounting of the uranium flows, but to a first approximation what happened was simply that Iran’s centrifuges that are allowed to enrich uranium enriched some uranium. (Iran has been slow to convert some of the LEU, which is in the form of a gas, to oxide.) I can happily recommend recent pieces by Richard Nephew, as well as David Albright and Serena Kelleher-Vergantini, if you want a more detailed explanation than I care to inflict on my readers and editors. [Ed.: Phew. Thanks, Jeff.]

Broad and Sanger hang a little news analysis on this “hook” offered by the somewhat larger stockpile, discussing Iran’s apparent commitment, under the terms of any final deal, to reduce its stockpile of LEU to no more than 300 kg. The Obama administration’s position is that there will be no sanctions relief until Iran reduces its LEU stockpile below 300 kg, among other steps.

The Sturm und Drang in the New York Times story is odd because the extra 800 kg or so of additional LEU just isn’t going to matter come June 30. How the Iranians reduce the stockpile is up to them — they can ship the material out of the country, downblend it, or even sell it on the open market. The Iranians have recently made noises about not shipping the material abroad, but they will ultimately have to choose a method that balances pride with their desire for speedy implementation of sanctions relief. An extra 800 kg of LEU doesn’t really change that calculus, at least not so far as I can tell. (My colleague, Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress wants to try isotopic denaturing of all Iran’s uranium but … oh, I lost you at isotopic denaturing, didn’t I?)

So, 800 kg doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things. That’s what I mean by calling the story odd. In 10 years, no one will remember how many hundred kilograms of LEU the Iranians had when the deal was struck — only how much they accepted as a cap and whether they actually got down to that number.

But this does speak to a recurring problem in our discourse about these negotiations. People are naturally interested in the progress of negotiations. When an IAEA report comes out, people ask, “What does it all mean?” It’s an obvious question, even if the answer that it doesn’t really mean anything, at least not at the moment.

The Great Iranian LEU Stockpile Panic of June 2015 replicates several other tempests that have excited pundits in recent months. Perhaps you remember when we were all worried about the topic of inspections? A few Iranian officials made statements suggesting that the issue of access to military bases would be a tough nut to crack. My favorite line came from Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Gen. Hossein Salami: “‘Iran will not become a paradise for spies. We will not roll out the red carpet for the enemy.’’

What the hell does that even mean? Some Iranian officials were more specific, ruling out “inspections” of military sites, which pointed to an obvious solution. Yes, the IAEA conducts inspections. But the Additional Protocol, which Iran had indicated that it would accept, refers to “complementary access” and “managed access” — terms that were chosen precisely to distinguish that access from inspections, including the dreaded and implicitly adversarial “special inspection.”

Not surprisingly, the Iranians have now announced that “managed access” to military sites is fine. One lesson is obvious: Do not render vague political rhetoric into concrete demands before negotiators do. “We will not roll out the red carpet for the enemy” is bluster, not a careful description of Iran’s view on the modalities of “managed access” in an Additional Protocol context. But maybe it also suggests, more broadly, that we should just let the negotiators do their jobs.

The Iranians, by the way, are every bit as bad as we are when it comes to speculation and tendentious description. Just this week, the supreme leader’s national security advisor, Ali Akbar Velayati, claimed that the United States had changed its position in negotiations, insisting on only 300 centrifuges at Fordow instead of 1,000. This is nonsense. What the parties agreed to in Lausanne was to allow six cascades totaling 1,044 centrifuges at Fordow — that is stated clearly in the fact sheet — but that Iran would operate only two cascades, or 348 machines. (That’s not stated so clearly, but that was the deal.) But whether it is 348 or 1,044 centrifuges, it doesn’t really matter. None of these machines would be permitted to enrich uranium. Instead, they would be modified to separate “stable” isotopes — stable here meaning “not radioactive.” I actually doubt Iran needs more than two cascades stockpiling molybdenum-99 in the short-term, but this will only be a deal breaker if the parties are looking for a reason to walk away.

I don’t know if Velayati is mistaken or just making trouble. Maybe he’s laying the groundwork to object to a deal, or maybe he is just trying to re-litigate a settled question. But you know what would be a great way to figure it out? Let the negotiators do their thing.

Maybe Iran really wants to use the full 1,044 centrifuges at Fordow. Let them make an offer.

Which brings me back to the big question asked in New York: Who to follow? I think, for the vast majority of readers, that is the wrong question. Unless you work on this issue for your day job, you can safely stop following the negotiations — at least for now. All the palaver about the negotiations will be immediately worthless on or about June 30, when the parties are supposed to have reached a deal.

Catch up on Game of Thrones or work on your art car for Burning Man. Wendy Sherman will still be here when you get back. And if you really just need a fix, check up on John Kerry’s broken leg or speculate about Javad Zarif’s allegedly achy-breaky back.

As for those of us who are professionally obligated to follow the twists and turns, we need to stop injecting garbage into the discussion. You know who you are. Political coverage is already dominated by nonsense like Hillary Clinton’s burrito preferences. We don’t have to declare a referendum on the fate of negotiations every time the supreme leader takes a dump.

Once the deal materializes or collapses amid recriminations — circle June 30 on your calendar — we can all get together again. Plenty of us will go through the provisions with a fine-tooth comb. I’ll certainly write a column or two. And I am sure the comments section will contain the usual trenchant commentary on both my arguments and my parentage. But we’ll at least be in a position to examine all the compromises, fudges, and shortcomings that make up any deal, with the small benefit of context that helps make sense of it all.

Illustration by FP