Nearly 1 million people have sought refuge in Iraq’s Kurdistan region. Among them: a nun, a wedding singer and a pair of “nerds” fleeing ISIS.

A Syrian singer’s songbook, a Turkmen calligrapher’s ink, a Palestinian Iraqi’s lucky lighter, a Yazidi teenager’s Taylor Swift album. These are a civil war’s survivors and the things they carried.

Throughout Iraq, more than 1.9 million people have been displaced by recent violence. The country’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region is now hosting more than 850,000 displaced Iraqis, in addition to more than 225,000 Syrian refugees.

Iraq’s displaced population cuts across religion, ethnicity and class. The stories of the uprooted reflect a fraying social fabric, and the challenges of a country in the throes of endless war. “This isn’t just about our survival,” says a university professor displaced from Iraq’s restive Anbar province and now living in Iraqi Kurdistan. “This is about the survival of Iraq and an entire region.”

The profiles below introduce some of the newly displaced – divergent in backgrounds and divided by beliefs, but united in a struggle to figure out their place in one of the most fractured countries in the world.   read more

Why Did North Korea Release Its Two American Prisoners Now?

• BY ISAAC STONE FISH-NOVEMBER 8, 2014

It took a surprise trip to North Korea by Director of National Intelligence James Clapper to secure the release of the two Americans imprisoned there: the missionary Kenneth Bae and Matthew Todd Miller.  The news, which Clapper's office announced early Saturday, comes less than three weeks after Pyongyang freed Jeffrey Edward Fowle, who was arrested in May 2014 for leaving a Bible in a North Korean sailor's club.

So why is North Korea releasing the men now?

With the usual caveat about scrutinizing the inscrutable  -- North Korea is harder to read than a Paulo Coehlo novel -- these are the three most likely possibilities:

Part of a "Diplomatic Charm Offensive"

North Korea's relations with China have been frosty, especially since the execution in December of Kim Jong Un's uncle Jang Song Thaek, who was widely seen as Pyongyang's leading China hand. Relations with Japan remain tense over the issue of Japanese citizens abducted by North Korea in the 1970s and 1980s. 

But against that background of diplomatic tensions, North Korea has been surprising engaging with South Korea, the European Union, and the United States. In early October, Pyongyang sent a delegation of top officials on a very rare trip to South Korea, and a senior envoy to the European Union to express North Korea's readiness to resume the six-party talks aimed at resolving the stand-off over its nuclear program.  

After the release of Fowle in October, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerryurged Pyongyang to release Bae and Miller, in order to build good will. It seems like Pyongyang has listened.  

An Insult To China

An impoverished country of 25 million people, North Korea knows how to punch above its weight in attracting international news coverage.

From Nov. 5 to Nov. 11, Beijing is hosting the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum. It has made it very clear, both domestically andinternationally, just how important it sees this meeting. For Pyongyang to release the prisoners now is a subtle diplomatic insult, as it briefly takes the attention away from Beijing. 

To Keep Itself Out of the International Criminal Court (ICC)

In mid-April, Michael Kirby, the chief U.N. investigator into North Korea's human rights abuses, called for the U.N. Security Council to refer Pyongyang -- and even possibly North Korean leader Kim Jong Un -- to the ICC for crimes the regime has committed against its own people. In mid-October, Japan and the European Union passed around a draft resolution encouraging the Security Council to refer North Korea to the ICC.

While China would likely veto the move -- in a late October interview, China's Ambassador to the United States Cui Tiankai told me resolutions like that were not "helpful or constructive" -- Pyongyang seems genuinely worried.

North Korea has been surprisingly vociferous in denying the charges leveled at it by the international community. North Korea's typically taciturn Ambassador to the U.N. even met recently with a group of Americans, including two journalists, to try to downplay the report.

Miller reportedly tried to get sent to a North Korean prison for the purpose of witnessing North Korean human rights abuses. With the ICC watching, North Korea may have released the prisoners in order to forestall what could be an embarrassing spectacle at The Hague.

In pictures: World leaders and awkward handshakes

China's President Xi Jinping and Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe looked decidedly awkward as they shook hands on Monday.

Mr Putin and Mr Obama avoided eye contact at the G20 Summit at St Petersburg in September last year. The two countries had just disagreed on whether to take military action in Syria and Russia had refused to extradite American whistleblower Edward Snowden.

10 November 2014 

Their muted - though politically significant - encounter at the sidelines of the Apec summit in Beijing was not surprising, given that relations are at a low over territorial disputes.

It's not the first time Mr Abe's attitude been described as chilly. And he is far from the only world leader to have been caught looking uncomfortable in front of the cameras.

In Pictures World Leaders and Awkward Handshakes by Thavam

Vandana Shiva: Right to Seeds and Water

GoodFood World

Good food is everybody's business!

Gail Nickel-Kailing, October 6th, 2014

Twenty years of globalization have shown us that a model based on corporate greed cannot sustain society and it cannot sustain the earth. It cannot sustain society even in rich countries.

Dr. Vandana Shiva: Right to Seeds and Water, a talk given on 30/6/14 in Colombo Sri Lanka.

Typhoon Haiyan: millions of lives still blighted one year on

Mentally ill people found chained by families and left to die after typhoon Haiyan – video

Peter Walker
Filipinos still living in temporary shelters and evacuation centres after storm that killed more than 6,000 and displaced 4 million

A Filipino girl pours water into a bucket next to a ship that was washed ashore a year ago by typhoon Haiyan in Tacloban. Photograph: Ezra Acayan/NurPhoto/Rex

A year after typhoon Haiyan devastated central areas of the Philippines, aid workers and officials are warning that millions of people are still living in temporary shelters and evacuation centres.

Haiyan, which is known locally as Yolanda and carried winds of 195mph, killed more than 6,000 people and left 4 million displaced, are likely to be increasingly common in the era of climate change, they say, making the situation for those in temporary accommodation all the more perilous.

“This is a reality for the world, and it’s certainly a reality for the Philippines,” said Jennifer MacCann, operation director in the country for the charity World Vision. “There will be bigger storms, they will have much more of an impact, and we should expect them.”

Despite intensive relief efforts by the Philippines government and international agencies, including £95m raised from the British public by a Disasters Emergency Committee appeal, aid teams say more than 2.5 million people in the region hit by typhoon Haiyan remain without proper homes. At least 100,000 are living in coastal areas officially declared unsafe, many in temporary shelters made from tarpaulins or plastic sheeting.

Mentally ill people found chained by families and left to die after typhoon Haiyan

Adding to the safety worries is the fact that many of the communal typhoon shelters which saved thousands of people from Haiyan, often schools, churches and community centres, remain damaged or destroyed.

A study by the International Migration Organisation (IOM) in April found that in Samar province, one of the areas worst hit, of 634 official evacuation shelters only 8% remained intact, with a quarter completely destroyed and 400 more needing major work. Subsequent storms have seen more demand for the remaining communal centres as many homes remain unsafe, said the IOM, describing the Philippines as “on the front line of climate change”. According to MacCann, it could take five years to get people into safe homes.

In July, the country was battered by another major storm. Typhoon Glenda killed more than 100 people.

If a major typhoon was to strike the areas devastated by Haiyan again in the near future, there is the potential for catastrophe, said Alison Kent, Oxfam’s humanitarian policy advisor in the Philippines. “That’s the key thing with evacuation centres, they’re such a critical way to minimise loss of life. With such a big storm as Haiyan to have an estimated 6,000 fatalities, given the extent of the damage, the loss of life could have been much greater. But now, in the absence of some of those evacuation facilities, it’s a big concern.”

Another big storm would also wreck efforts to resuscitate the region’s economy, after Haiyan devastated farmland, coconut plantations and fishing fleets.

This was a particular problem away from the region’s main city, Tacloban, said Laura Gilmour of Care International: “It’s people in these remote areas [who] are more vulnerable anyway, because they don’t have the land, or they’re completely dependent on something like coconut farming, which has been completely wiped out. They are now in huge debt, still having to pay landowners even if they have no crops.”

Several charities report significant numbers of people leaving Haiyan-hit areas for Manila or other cities, including women who have entered the sex industry to support their families.

The key Filipino voice sounding the alert over the prospect of more mega-storms is Yeb Saño, the country’s climate change commissioner, who made headlines last November when, in the wake of Haiyan, hemade a tearful speech to UN climate talks in Warsaw before going on a protest fast.

Saño is currently halfway through a 620-mile (1,000km) walk from Manila to Tacloban to raise awareness of the effect of climate change on a country with more than 20,000 miles of coastline. He aims to arrive on the anniversary of the day Haiyan made landfall, 8 November.

“It’s three years in a row that we’ve been hit by super-storms, and we had another strong one last July,” he told the Guardian. “We are barely scratching the surface when we talk about addressing the root causes of all this. It’s all connected to these causes – poverty, environmental degradation, governance. All of these things combined could lead to disastrous consequences.”

During the walk, Saño said, he was collecting people’s experiences of how climate change affected them. The cumulative impact was overwhelming, he said. “They’re telling us about how things have changed for the worst compared to several years ago, with storms, punishing droughts, and erratic rainfall patterns. One of the things we’re doing on this walk is documenting these stories from ordinary Filipinos so we can tell the whole world about them.”

வடமாகாண சபையைக் கலைக்க அரசாங்கம் தயங்காது: சென்னையில் விக்னேஸ்வரன் உரை

[ ஞாயிற்றுக்கிழமை, 09 நவம்பர் 2014, 11:46.17 AM GMT ]

உணர்ச்சிபூர்வமான எமது பேச்சுக்களை வைத்து, எமக்குப் பயங்கரவாத பூச்சைப் பூசி வடமாகாண சபையைக் கலைக்கவும் தயங்காது அரசாங்கம் தயங்காது என வடக்கு முதல்வர் விக்னேஸ்வரன் தெரிவித்துள்ளார்.

தமிழ்நாட்டுக்கு சென்றுள்ள முதலமைச்சர் விக்னேஸ்வரன் இன்று முற்பகல் 11 மணிக்கு சென்னை வள்ளுவர் கோட்டம் அருகேயுள்ள வித்யோதயா பாடசாலையில் கே.ஜி.கண்ணபிரான் நினைவு நிகழ்வில் உரையாற்றினார்.

அவர் தனது உரையில்,

1987ம் ஆண்டின் இலங்கை - இந்திய உடன்படிக்கையில் பாரதம் கையெழுத்திட்டது. 13வது திருத்தச் சட்டம் என்பது இந்தியாவால் தமிழர் சார்பில் எடுத்துரைத்த விடயங்களுக்கு இலங்கை அரசாங்கம் கையளித்த ஒரு முழுமையற்ற தீர்வாவணம்.

உடன்படிக்கையை எக்காரணம் கொண்டும் விரைவில் முடித்துவிட வேண்டும் என்று அக்கால இருநாட்டு முதல்வர்களும் முடிவெடுத்திருந்ததால் 13வது திருத்தச் சட்டம் முக்கியமான அதிகாரங்களை நியாயமான முறையில் மத்திக்கும் மாகாணத்திற்கும் இடையில் பகிர்ந்து  கொடுத்துள்ளதா என்ற கேள்விக்கு விடை தேடாமலேயே உடன்படிக்கை கைச்சாத்திடப்பட்டது.

Part 5

Part 5

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

வடமாகாண சபையைக் கலைக்க அரசாங்கம் தயங்காது சென்னையில் விக்னேஸ்வரன் உரை by Thavam

Uruguay's Jose Mujica gets $1m offer for his VW Beetle

A Rajapaksa Front Company Investment US$ 7.0 billion

Politicians’ Sons Shoes Worth Rs. 150,000 A Pair & Drive Lamborghinis That Cost Rs. 50 million

Rajapaksa Family Stands To Receive In Commission Anywhere Between US$1.2 To US$ 1.8 Billion During 2005-15

MR & Corruption

Lions Share of The Budget Goes to Rajapaksa Family R.Sampanthan

7 November 2014 Last updated at 07:04 GMT

Uruguay's President Jose Mujica says he has been offered $1m (£630,000) for his vintage Volkswagen Beetle.

Mr Mujica, once dubbed "the poorest president in the world" because of his modest lifestyle, said the offer had come from an Arab sheikh.

Ben Bland reports.

Read more

Uruguay's Jose Mujica gets $1m offer for his VW Beetle

Jose Mujica: Uruguay's rebel turned president comes to term's end

Jose Mujica: The world's 'poorest' president

Sampanthan MP Parlaiment Speech

Who Should Govern the North: TNA of 78% or Govt.of 18%? Asks Sampanthan

[Election in the North 2013; AFP photo]

By R.Sampanthan,MP-06/11/2014 

I now get onto my second point, Sir. That is, the Northern Provincial Council and its governance. Sir, governance can only be with the assent of the governed. Governance cannot take place without the assent of the governed. The verdict of the Northern Provincial Council Election clearly indicates the democratic wish of the people of the North.

பாராளுமன்றத்தில் மாவை சேனாதிராசா ஆற்றிய உரை

After the War Military was Not de-mobilized; But Intensely Mobilized and Deployed Allover

Dr Vickramabahu Karunarathna –

The Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa has ordered the Sri Lankan military to take “full control” of the relief centers, opened up for Upcountry Tamils displaced by the landslide, which affected the Meeriyabedda estate in Badulla district. Accordingly the army will control the feeding, health and “entire management” of the displaced victims. Immediately Lieutenant General Ratnayake visited the Koslanda Sri Ganesha Tamil Vidyalaya and the Poona gala Tamil Vidyalaya centers and made arrangement for the take over. While this takeover happened in the south, in the north a United Nations official was stopped from entering the North, due to the Ministry of Defence’s newly re-introduced travel restrictions. Latter requires all foreign citizens to seek prior permission from the Ministry to enter the Tamil region in the North of the island. Beth Crawford, the country representative for the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), was turned away at Oman Thai check point. Crawford, who was appointed to Sri Lanka in July 2013, was reportedly on her way to Kilinochchi to mark World Food Day, on the invitation of the Northern Provincial Council Agriculture Minister P. Aingaranesan.

The Tamil leaders claim that Sri Lankan government’s re-introduction of travel restrictions to the North, preventing all foreign citizens from entering the region without prior written permission from the Ministry of Defence, is aimed at stopping Tamils from giving evidence to the UN inquiry. One leader said “The fact that the travel restrictions on foreign passport holders to the North have come at this juncture, is not a surprise at all. The government would have been observing closely and its intelligence sources would have revealed that the Tamil victims of the most heinous crimes are very eager to give evidence to the OHCHR Investigation into Sri Lanka (OISL). The only hesitation Tamils have is with regards to how the evidence can be submitted whilst maintaining secrecy. One of the safest ways would be to transfer the evidence through diplomats or foreigners who would be most likely to be able to get the evidence out of the country safely”.

Even in the Sinhala dominated south there is a strong criticism against the admission of the security forces to handle social management problems. It is a sign of fascistic style of politics to handover civil administration to military officers, who listen to commands from the top instead of referring legislation relevant to the social problem. On the other hand the military regiments are introduced as saviors of the people for any emergency.

At the same time military leaders including the Defence secretary enter the minds of the people as socio political leaders, to be called in the event of an emergency. Instead of removing the security forces from the civil society after the end of the war, they have become indispensable apparatus to be used in construction, production and civil administration. They are not de-mobilized; no, they are intensely mobilized and deployed allover the island.

Against this severe criticism the government has put forward lame excuses. the ruling United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) coalition party’s general secretary said recently that Travel restrictions have been placed on the North to prevent foreign elements funding another war against the Sri Lankan government. Minister Susil Premajayanth added that the lifting of the European Union ban on the LTTE could be due to the campaign of pro-LTTE diaspora who believe in separation and stressed that the government had a responsibility to prevent another war. The minister added that “the pro-LTTE diaspora is very much active in the EU and pushed for the ban on the LTTE to be lifted. The Government has a responsibility to prevent another war from taking place and so such security measures have to be taken.” Most Tamil leaders expect this fascistic action of the government to open the eyes of the global capitalist powers. “These measures taken by government of Sri Lanka only highlight the pressing need for the UN to seriously consider, as the next step, the need to find the means of creating direct access to the greatest reservoir of evidence of the mass crimes committed against the Tamils, which is the people on the ground” one Tamil leader said. Unfortunately global capitalism is satisfied with the development programme carried out by the government. The real protest against the militaristic fascist styled government has come from the mass protest in the south. It is growing fast, as admitted by the government when it produced a budget with different clips to satisfy every body in the Lankan society.

– This article was first pubished in The Ceylon Today

[Original Photo: 65th Independence Day celebrations in the northeastern town of Trincomalee. AFP PHOTO]

Presidential Hopeful Karu Jayasuriya Must Disclose Relationship With News Websites

November 9, 2014

In the wake of several news websites highly critical of the Government of Sri Lanka giving sudden prominence to UNP Gampaha District Parliamentarian and Chairman of the UNP’s Leadership Council Karu Jayasuriya, Colombo Telegraph is compelled to question him on the nature of his relationship with those who operate these websites.

According to media reports this past week Karu Jayasuriya now appears to be the leading contender as the presidential candidate proposed by the opposition parties, other possible choices former President Chandrika Kumaranatunga, Leader of the UNP Ranil Wickremesinghe, and Ven Maduluwawe Sobhitha Thera, the convener of the National Movement for Social Justice.

On October 23rd, Karu Jayasuriya telephoned the Colombo Telegraph editor and offered him a monthly payment of Rs 50,000/- ‘in appreciation of the work that Colombo Telegraph does’. Jayasuriya did not state for how long this payment was to be made. The issue did not arise because the editor politely declined the offer.  The editor, furthermore, reminded Jayasuriya that it was he who interviewed him when he first came in to politics in 1995. At that time Jayasuriya had told the journalist that he hoped he would continue work towards the independence of the media. The Colombo Telegraph editor pointed out to Jayasuriya that he functions today as an independent media entity and said he did not need any money.

One week after the aforementioned phone call, Karu Jayasuriya has been given a lot of prominence in several news websites.  Colombo Telegraph is therefore compelled to ask Karu Jayasuriya whether or not he had made a similar offer to those who run these websites ‘in appreciation of the work they do’ or for any other reason.

Colombo Telegraph feels it is Jayasuriya’s duty to disclose the nature of his relationship with the said websites, particularly in view of the fact that Jayasuriya was the very person who campaigned for the Right to Information and transparency.

Unity in understanding imperialist legacy of Tamil genocide

[TamilNet, Sunday, 09 November 2014, 00:39 GMT]
“If there is no unity among Tamils, the Sinhalese ruling elite will continue their game of divide and rule and perpetuate Sinhalese dominance,” writes V. Suryanarayan in The New Indian Express on Saturday. He should first tell this to the New Delhi Establishment and ruling elite in India, which in its greed to come in the shoes of British imperialism and swallow the island as a whole, detracted Tamil Eelam envisaging parity in dominance and self respect to both Tamils and Sinhalese, divided Tamils, exploited sections of them, directed the war into genocide and now in the game of making inroads into the island by confirming the genocidal Sinhala State, gagging Tamil Nadu, but asking Tamils in the island to come in unity to help the process, responds Tamil activists for alternative politics. 

Further comments from Tamil activists for alternative politics in Eezham:

V. Suryanarayan, retired professor of South and Southeast Asian Studies, long working with New Delhi’s ‘national security’ outfits, was writing the feature to exploit the birth centenary celebrations of C.V. Velu Pillai (1914-1984), an up-country Tamil leader and cultural personality who had made multi-faceted inspirations in the community.

V Suryanarayan

“The tragedy of Sri Lanka is self-evident. While many literary and political groups in the hill country have chalked out an imaginative programme to commemorate the memory of Velu Pillai in the birth centenary year, the Sri Lankan Tamils and Tamil-speaking Muslims have, by and large, kept out of the celebrations,” Suryanarayan was making a dig at Eezham Tamils and Tamil Nadu supporting the cause of Eezham Tamils.

Suryanarayan was long displaying the dividing game of the New Delhi Establishment, more efficiently than the Sinhala elite.

“Velu Pillai was deeply sensitive to the fact that Tamils in Sri Lanka are not homogenous. They are divided into Sri Lankan Tamils, Indian Tamils and Tamil-speaking Muslims. Over the years, the Indian Tamils are developing an identity of their own, very different from Sri Lankan Tamils and the Tamils of India. This reality has spurred a debate within Indian Tamil community regarding their identity and the name in which they should be known,” Suryanarayan writes.

Suryanarayan imposes ‘Sri Lankan’ identity to Eezham Tamils, even after they had democratically demonstrated their denouncement of it at the very initiation of it in 1972.

But the learned professor claiming a long champion in ‘mediating’ the cause of up-country Tamils with New Delhi (or vice versa) couldn’t spell even the Malaiyaka Tamil identity of the up-country Tamils properly, showing the depth of his involvement. He consistently wrote ‘Malaiham,’ throughout the New Indian Express feature and the Indian national media also didn’t care to correct it.

“A broad consensus has emerged that the community should be known as Malaiha Makkal [sic]—children of Malaiham [sic]. Velu Pillai played a catalytic role in the growth of this thinking. In his conversation with Prof. Valentine Daniel, Velu Pillai has given vignettes of the Malaiha [sic] Tamizharin Puranam—epic of the Hill Country Tamils,” Suryanarayan wrote.

Writing of an event in 1983, in which he received some up-country Tamil activists, he wrote; “I put them in touch with leaders of various political parties and media personnel. I also arranged a talk by them in Madras University, where they graphically described how their problems and aspirations were different from that of Sri Lankan Tamils. Three days later, Yogeshwaran, MP from Jaffna, telephoned and asked me why I am creating divisions within Tamil society. I responded that they are people of Indian origin and India, given its Gandhi-Nehru legacy, has a special responsibility towards them.”

* * * The national question of up-country Tamils or Tamils of Indian origin has not come only from 1949. It has started much earlier, even under the British, when limited governance was given since 1930s to an ‘All Sinhala’ cabinet in Ceylon and to Nehru cabinet in India. All of them ditched Tamils. 

The Eezham Tamils emotionally in support of the independence of India, sympathetic to the cause of the Tamils of Indian origin in the island and strongly opposed to their repatriation, were hated by the Sinhala nation for those very reasons.

The Eezham Tamils eventually took a stand that only the independence of their nation and territory in the island would arrest genocide, structural genocide and ensure security and self-respect of all Tamil-speaking people in any part of the island.

But New Delhi imperialism’s ‘vision’ is annihilating the nation and territoriality of Eezham Tamils, bestowing ‘right to genocide’ to the Sinhala State and separately continuing deception with the divided and subjugated Tamils of all origin, for devouring the island as a whole and to create a permanent check against any dissension in the south of India. From time to time the fangs of New Delhi operatives would prick the venom imperceptibly as well as directly.

Writing in last June, after visiting the island as a member of the BJP-RSS-Shiv Sena delegation, journalist Swapan Dasgupta said: “The ‘Tamil problem’ that provides livelihood to the global human rights industry and provokes indignation in some circles in India seems essentially a Jaffna problem, and should be renamed as such,” implying that the ‘other’ Tamils in the island have no problems with the Colombo-New Delhi designs and therefore unity is needed only to fall in line. 

What is said in the present column is no way in defence of the so-called Eezham Tamil leaders and activists in the island and in the diaspora, the impotency of whom is unable to come out with an inclusive national cause of Tamils presentable to the world and even to the Sinhala nation, but is prepared to pawn the fundamentals to the designs and lures of imperialisms.

There is no excuse to the inability in reaching out one another, in all camps of the leaderships and activists of the Tamil-speaking people.

* * * A fitting discourse on Professor Suryanarayan’s New Indian Express feature theme could be found in two articles written by a matriculation class student ‘Kokilam’ that appeared in the school magazine of Jaffna Hindu College in June 1939 and July 1939.

The articles contemporary to the times Suryanarayan now tries to ‘re-enact’, tell the feelings of Jaffna Tamils to the injustices committed on the up-country Tamils as early as in 1939; how the business community was spared but only the working class was affected (reminding of today’s Indian corporates and up-country Tamils); how the British kept quiet to the injustices; how the enmity of the Sinhalese towards Eezham Tamils escalated because of the latter’s support to the cause of the Tamils of Indian origin; but how even India (of Congress self government) ditched the maritime economic opportunities of Eezham Tamils while they were supporting the cause of Indian Tamils and how the attack on them was from all sides.

As Suryanarayan’s feature is aimed at Tamil readership, the trouble to translate Kokilam’s Tamil articles into English is not taken up. 

[Courtesy to Jaffna Hindu College Old Boy’s Association that documented the old magazines.]
Full story >>

Electorate And Elections

| by Tisaranee Gunasekara

“The iron hand of necessity commands….”

Goethe (Iphigenia in Tauris)

( November 9, 2014, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) For the opposition, the presidential election will be an obstacle race on a non-level playing-field, overseen by a biased judge.

If the opposition can agree on a common candidate, it will be over the first hurdle. A common candidate is not a sufficient condition for electoral victory; but it is an absolutely necessary one. Without it, with an opposition divided and bickering, the election will be lost even before the nomination is over.

The next hurdle will be to discover and address the most pressing issues facing the electorate.

The CPA’s latest opinion survey, Democracy in Post-War Sri Lanka’, would be invaluable in this regard.

The survey confirms an important surmise: the core-constituency of the Rajapaksas – the Sinhalese – continues to erode. The survey also confirms that this erosion is caused mainly by rising economic distress and falling economic expectations.

According to the survey, 45.1% of Lankans think that the national economic situation got little or lot worse in the last two years; 43.5% of Sinhalese also feel the same.

In 2013, 44.3% of Lankans and 39.2% of Sinhalese thought that the national economic situation got a little or lot worse in the previous two years.

In just one year, pessimism about the direction of the national economy has increased by 1.8% among all Lankans and a very significant 11% among the Sinhalese.

According to the 2014 survey, 50.1% of Lankans and 48.2% of Sinhalese think that the current economic situation in the country is somewhat bad or very bad.

In 2013, 50.5% of Lankans and 45.4% of Sinhalese regarded the economic situation as somewhat or very bad.

While the percentage of Lankans who have a negative opinion of the national economic situation has decreased infinitesimally, the number of Sinhalese who are unhappy about the state of the economy has grown quite significantly, by more than 6%.

According to the latest survey, 54.1% Lankans and 54% of Sinhalese think that their own household economy got little or lot worse in the last two years.

In 2013, 52.7% of Lankans thought their household economy got a little or lot worse, as did 49.3% of Sinhalese.

In the last one year, the number of Lankans dissatisfied with their own personal economic conditions increased by 2.7% while the number of Sinhalese unhappy about their own economic situation increased by a telling 9.5%.

In 2014, 42.7% of Lankans and 43.1% of Sinhalese said that they had to cut back on the quantity/quality of the food they purchased.

In 2013, 30.6% of Lankans and 24.1% of Sinhalese said that they had to cut back on the quality of the food purchased.

In the last year, 39.5% of Lankans and 78.8% of Sinhalese had to reduce the quality/quantity of the food they purchased.

In 2014, 66.3% of Lankans and 67.4% of Sinhalese thought that the government should prioritise cost of living; in 2013, the figures were 58.5% for all Lankans and 58.5% for Sinhalese.

The survey paints a picture of an economically distressed and discontented electorate. Even more significantly it shows an economically despondent Sinhala majority. In the last year, economic pessimism exacerbated far more sharply among the Sinhalese. The conclusion seems obvious: the minorities became wise to and disenchanted with the Rajapaksa economics early; now the Sinhalese are catching up, and fast.

Little wonder that the Rajapaksas want to have national elections as soon as it is constitutionally possible.

The picture presented by the CPA survey indicates, yet again, the absolute importance of preventing a third Rajapaksa term. If Mahinda Rajapaksa wins a third term, the economic distress of the populace in general and the Sinhalese in particular will continue to increase. In order to divert Sinhala attention from the growing economic woes, the Rajapaksas will increasingly deploy religious and ethnic racism and xenophobia. In consequence, a new conflict with another minority might become unavoidable during a third Rajapaksa term.

The Rajapaksas must be defeated, for the sake of peace, stability and Sri Lanka’s future.

A Double-Barrelled Common Programme

The events of the last several years have proved beyond reasonable doubt the dangers inherent in the lopsided executive presidency created by the 1978 Constitution. So long as the term-limit provision was in place, and no single party/coalition possessed a two-thirds majority, the system remained workable. But a sea change occurred during the second Rajapaksa term. Using the victory over the LTTE as a window of opportunity, the Rajapaksas bribed, blackmailed and threatened a sufficient number of opposition lawmakers into crossing over, removed term-limits and further empowered the already powerful president. Then they proceeded to subjugate the judiciary by removing the Chief Justice via an illegal impeachment and replacing her with a total stooge. They also commenced disembowelling the 13th Amendment and occupying the private-sector economy via acolyte businessmen.

The Rajapaksas have shown the way; there is no guarantee that a non-Rajapaksa successor will not make a similar despotic attempt, if the system remains.

That is one reason why the all powerful presidency must be replaced with a system which combines enhanced democracy and enhanced devolution, a far more balanced set up with adequate constitutional safeguards for basic freedoms and minority rights.

There is another reason - the abolition of the executive presidency is the only platform on which the Opposition can unite and field a common candidate. This is the only basis on which the UNP, the JVP and Tamil and Muslim parties can come together. The slogan is therefore a necessary-glue, an indispensable unifying force. That unity alone cannot defeat the Rajapaksas; but without that shot in the arm, the opposition cannot be immunised against despair, inertia and dissolution.

In 1994, many foretold doom when the SLFP gave up the chair symbol and the party name and agreed to contest as Peoples Alliance with a totally new symbol, the chair. Events proved them wrong.

Similarly UNPers too can be persuaded to vote for a common candidate and a common symbol, by the UNP. The UNP base would be eager to get rid of the Rajapaksas. If all UNP leaders back a common candidate, the absolute majority of UNPers can be enthused into voting for a common symbol. Much will depend on what Ranil Wickremesinghe and Sajith Premadasa will do. Given their past records, both are capable of sabotaging a common candidate. Going by media reports, Sajith Premadasa is more likely to do so this time than Ranil Wickremesinghe. That is a real and present danger which needs to be addressed.

A joint oppositional platform, in order to be successful, needs to have two basic planks. One is the replacement of the current presidential system; the other is a viable programme of action to alleviate the cost of living problem within a set time period, perhaps the first 100 days.

A reduction in indirect taxes on essentials and a commensurate reduction in monies allocated to wasteful entities/projects (the sort which exists solely for Rajapaksa profit and Rajapaksa glory, such as Mihin Lanka and Mattala) are entirely possible. Such a programme of action can make the connection between Rajapaksa rule and the growing economic distress of all Lankans, convincingly and eloquently.

 

Reference;

 

www.cpalanka.org/top-line-survey-results-democracy-in-post-war-sri-lanka-2014/