In the Shadow of North Korean Threats, South Korea Shrugs
Demonstrators release balloons with peace messages during a protest to denounce Kim Jong Un on the Grand Unification Bridge in Paju, near the demilitarized zone separating the two Koreas, on April 10, 2013

Nobody does bluster better than Pyongyang. In the past few weeks the country’s hardworking propagandists declared a “state of war” with South Korea, announced plans to restart a plutonium-producing reactor and threatened the U.S. with nuclear Armageddon. A North Korean spokesman found the time to decry the “venomous swish” of the South Korean President’s skirt. And dictator Kim Jong Un reportedly urged frontline troops to “break the waists of the crazy enemies, totally cut their windpipes and thus clearly show them what a real war is like.”

Fighting words, sure, but nothing entirely new here. For decades Pyongyang has promised to reduce the Republic of Korea to a “sea of fire,” using regular rounds of escalation to secure concessions from the outside world. Last week, as part of an almost daily barrage of threats, North Korea warned that it could not secure the safety of diplomats in the capital beyond April 10 and advised foreigners to evacuate Seoul. But Wednesday came and went, the diplomatic corps stayed put, and Seoul shrugged off the warning, more aggravated, it seemed, than genuinely anxious. “North Korea is using provocation because it has worked in the past,” Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification tells TIME. “North Korea is not preparing for war.”

(MORE: China’s Long, Fruitless History of Irritation With North Korea)

Tell that to the Americans. One of the strangest things about the current crisis is that it seems like the farther you get from the Korean Peninsula, the greater the level of fear. For weeks now the international press has been warning of “imminent” war, a claim unhelpfully bolstered by the likes of Vladimir Putin, who predicted that conflict with North Korea could make Chernobyl look “like a child’s fairy tale.” Chuck Hagel, the U.S. Secretary of Defense, was less colorful, but equally urgent, saying North Korea constitutes “clear and real” danger to the U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is due to fly into Seoul for talks this week. Perhaps unsurprisingly, findingsreleased on Tuesday by the Pew Research Center suggest that a majority of Americans think the government should take North Korea’s threats “very seriously.” Forty-seven percent think Kim’s regime is capable of launching a nuclear missile that could reach the U.S. — despite the fact U.S. and South Korean intelligence both suggest Pyongyang doesn’t yet have the know-how.

The fact is North Korea has little to gain, and everything to lose, from starting a war. The regime’s primary concern is self-preservation; a full-fledged fight would be dynastic suicide. John Delury, a Korea watcher who teaches Chinese history at Yonsei University in Seoul, sees North Korea’s bombast as evidence of fear, not strength. “The fundamental issue is that North Korea is the weak party, surrounded by powers that are exponentially stronger and bigger than it is,” he says. “There is a constant overcompensation; they have to constantly present themselves as stronger than they are.”

North Korea watchers say the current escalation, particularly the recent threat of a ballistic-missile test, has as much or even more to do with internal affairs as its external concerns. Young and relatively untested, Kim is likely looking for ways to consolidate his own power and safeguard his family’s legacy. Next week, he may try to do both. On April 15, North Korea will mark the 101st birthday of the state’s founding father, Kim Il Sung. It is the single most important day in the North Korean calendar, an event Delury calls “semireligious, even sacred” — so much so that in 1997, Pyongyang replaced the Christian calendar with a juche calendar, in which history begins with the birth of the Great Leader, in 1912. Last year, Kim Jong Un celebrated his grandfather’s birthday by trying, but failing, to launch a rocket two days before hosting a massive military parade.

(MORE: Brinkmanship Blockade: North Korea Bars South Koreans From Kaesong)

Will Kim top last year’s showing? In Seoul today most experts played down the likelihood of an attack, saying a test was more likely. Bernhard Seliger, an economist at the Seoul branch of Germany’s Hanns Seidel Foundation, predicts Kim might simply use the anniversary to “claim victory” over foreign aggressors, aligning himself symbolically with his grandfather, who is venerated like a god. Seliger, who estimates that he’s been to North Korea about 100 times over the past 10 years, predicts the tension will dissipate quickly as attention turns to spring planting in the impoverished rural hinterlands. “North Korea can’t wage war, because the soldiers are really needed in the fields,” he says.

Indeed, in recent days, while talking tough abroad, North Korean officials have reportedly toned down the domestic propaganda — which suggests a method behind the madness. In Pyongyang, which is shut to most foreign reporters, the Associated Press found little to suggest people were readying for war. “Soldiers laid blankets of sod to liven up a city still coming out of a long, cold winter,” wrote Jean H. Lee and Hyung-Jin Kim. Quietly, it seems, North Korea is getting ready for a celebration.

-With reporting from Audrey Yoo in Seoul

MORE: A More Hopeful Future for North Korea?

PHOTOS: North Korea Ratchets Up Tensions on the Peninsula

Video: Buddhists Must Speak Out On Behalf Of The Muslims – Bishop Chickera

By Colombo Telegraph -April 11, 2013 

Rev. Duleep De Chickera‘s (Former Bishop of Colombo) presantation at the panel discussion on “Religion, Reconciliation and Future” organised by Sri Lanka Young Journalists Movement on Monday, 8th April, 2013.

Rev. Chickera stressed the need for religious communities and moderates from all communities to speak out when another community comes to harm. “Buddhists must speak out on behalf of the Muslims. Christians must speak out on behalf of the Hindus,” he said. All moderates must transcend ethnic and religious boundaries to speak in one voice against attempts to harm the people of a community. It is the only way to make an impact, he explained.

Video: London Protest To Support Sri Lankan Muslims: Hands Off Muslims – Solution For The Muslims Is Jihad

By Colombo Telegraph -April 11, 2013

A protest held in London in front of Sri Lankan Embassy attended by UK Muslims against the oppression to Muslims in Sri Lanka.

Muslims gathered outside the Sri Lankan embassy in London on April 5, 2013 to voice their support for the Muslims in Sri Lanka and to condemn the Sri Lankan government and to say the solution for the Muslims is Jihad.

Full Court Report: BBS Leader Gnanasara Pleaded Guilty To Hit-And-Run And Drunk Driving

By Colombo Telegraph -April 11, 2013 

Court documents obtained by the Colombo Telegraph show that Bodu Bala Sena General Secretary and vociferous hardline monk, Galabodaaththe Gnanasara pleaded guilty to hit-and-run charges filed against him by Grandpass police in 2000.

On September 20, 2000, the monk was fined Rs. 12,000 by Traffic Courts, Colombo 12. The accident occurred on April 14, the same year, causing injuries to two others named Mohamed Rifai and Ravindra Kumar.  Gnanasara Thera was driving lorry number 6 Shri 5444. Among the charges against him were drunk driving, speeding, driving without a valid licence and failing to report the accident.

The monk pleaded guilty to all 9 charges.

Video : BBS Monk Gnanasara

We publish below the  report in full;

The never say die spirit of Jaffna media

By Maneckshaw 2013-04-09  The Jaffna Peninsula is unique as far as regional media activities are concerned. Away from Colombo, this is the only region in the country where the 'fourth estate' thrives. Remarkably, not only four regional newspapers are published here, the country's first regional television station, Dish Asia Network (DAN), which caters to the region as well as abroad via satellite, also has its main operations here. The first blow to a Jaffna newspaper was struck on the very night the Jaffna Public Library was set on fire in June 1981. Eelanadu, which was started in 1959 with veteran journalist K.P. Haran as Editor, was attacked by the same mob that had set the Jaffna Library aflame, completely destroying around 90,000 books and rare manuscripts. Christian missionaries, who had laid the foundation to institutionalize the educational system in Jaffna, were the pioneers of the first English and Tamil newspapers in the Peninsula. The first newspaper, the Morning Star, and its Tamil version Uthayatharakai were printed in 1841. The second English paper, known as the Jaffna Free Man was published in 1863. And this was followed by The Jaffna News in 1871 and the Catholic Guardian in 1876. In the backdrop of Christian missionaries pioneering the Jaffna newspaper industry, primarily as a means to propagate Christianity and to safeguard the interest of the colonial masters, the first native news paper called the Hindu Organ was first published in 1889, with the intention of protecting Hinduism and indigenous values in the region. Newspaper culture The first Tamil newspaper to be published in the 20th century was the Suthesha Natyam in 1902. This was followed by the Eelakesari in 1930 and Eelanadu in 1959. The latter was published by late K.C. Thangaraja, an entrepreneur from Jaffna who successfully served as the Chairman of the Eastern Paper Mills in Valaichenai. The beginning of Eelanadu paved the way for a healthy newspaper culture in the Northern region, at is saw several veteran Tamil Journalists such as S.M. Gopalaratnam from Veerakesari and other Tamil newspapers published in Colombo giving up their lucrative journalistic career in the capital to join the Indian born late K.P. Haran. The journalists along with Haran, who was a former Editor of Veerakesari, gave their best to build Eelanadu into a powerful newspaper in the Peninsula, highlighting diverse views on the socio, political and the economic aspects of the Jaffna people. Eelanadu became a household name in Jaffna within a short period of its launch, and not long thereafter, the paper started spreading its wings to the Eastern Province. The Jaffna Tamils from Colombo too became regular subscribers of Eelanadu, appreciating its authentic contributions on Tamil affairs. However, with Tamil extremism gathering momentum in the early '80s, Jaffna became a hotbed for newspapers and in no time, all the publications became popular as the hunger for news was immense, with political moves and militant activities taking place simultaneously. The popularity of the regional newspapers in Jaffna attracted several Jaffna youths who had dreamt of entering the universities and building careers in journalism. Several of them joined various publishing houses in Jaffna, showing great enthusiasm for the work. Even the graduates from the University of Jaffna, who looked forward to engage other professional jobs, had joined as journalists, strengthening the newspaper industry in Jaffna. Mainstream English publication Interestingly, the first mainstream English paper in Jaffna was the weekly, Saturday Review, published several years later, with veteran English journalist, late S. Sivanayagam, who was a contemporary of another veteran, Reggie Michael, as the Editor. Apart from the writers with a media background, university elitists such as Dr. Rajani Thiranagama, her academic sister, Nirmala Nithyananthan and others such as late A.S. Kanagaratnam who had also been a Daily News journalist in the '60s, backed the Saturday Review and the publication instantly cultivated a larger readership not only in Jaffna, but in Colombo as well, with extensive contributions on the Tamil political scene of post-1983 communal disturbance. However, the editorship of Sivanayagam at the Saturday Review was short lived, as a result of him being branded as being sympathetic towards Tamil militancy. The pressure and intimidation from Colombo compelled the veteran journalist to flee from Jaffna in a plastic boat, seeking refuge in Tamil Nadu, from where he set off to the United Kingdom. Sivanayagam returned to Colombo from the UK a few years ago and died shortly thereafter. When former Editor of the Sunday Observer, Ajith Samaranayake, passed away, Sivanayagam fondly remembered Ajith as saying he was the only Colombo-based journalist, who wrote in support of Sivanayagam, when he went through difficult times in Tamil Nadu. Veteran journalist, Gamini Navaratne, succeeded Sivanayagam as the Editor of Saturday Review. But his stint in Jaffna was also short lived as the Tamil militancy was gathering momentum and Navaratne had found it difficult to draw a middle path while highlighting the realities of that period in Jaffna. The arrival of the Indian Peace Keeping Forces (IPKF) in Jaffna threatened the industry with several newspapers coming under the close scrutiny of the Indians. Two Tamil dailies, Murasoli and Eelamurasu, were bombed by the IPKF intelligence officials in the later part of 1987, as a warning to other media institutions in Jaffna, for their pro-LTTE stance. Pressure from LTTE In the meantime, the LTTE having a former journalist in Anton Balasingham as its theoretician also put its iron fist into various newspapers in Jaffna. It also established its television station called Nitharsanam (Truth) in the Peninsula, airing its news stories on the offensives it had carried out and on its political stance. In February 1988, the oldest newspaper in Jaffna at that time, Eelanadu, was attacked by the LTTE for its neutral outlook over the Indo-Lanka Accord, which the outfit was opposed to. Uthayan, which had started its publication in 1985, managed to survive despite several obstacles under the editorship of veteran journalist S. Kanamylnathan and his deputy N. Vithyatharan. In the early '90, following the closure of several Jaffna based newspapers, Uthayan became a formidable newspaper, and in the process became the target for attack by the various forces that objected to its stance. Over the years, the newspaper was attacked on more than 30 occasions and several of its journalists and media workers killed. The latest incident was the 3 April attack on the newspapers regional office in Kilinochchi. A recent study on media activities in Jaffna highlighted that more than 70 Tamil journalists and media workers from the North and East have been killed, with most of them being targeted in the North. Despite the attacks carried out on Jaffna-based media personnel and institutions, it is interesting to note that with the establishment of the Media Resources Training Centre (MRTC) in Jaffna, affiliated to the University of Jaffna, a large number of students have shown greater enthusiasm in joining the media fraternity in the North and some of them have already proved themselves as promising, not only in the print media, but even in the electronic media channels. It is indeed remarkable that despite the hostile environment for media in the North, Jaffna remains a powerful regional media hub in the country, with more than four publishing houses and tremendous enthusiasm from the younger generation.

The Mob, The Police And The Freedom From Fear

By M.A. Sumanthiran -April 11, 2013 

M.A. Sumanthiran MP

‘Towards a peaceful environment to live with confidence, without fear of crime and violence.’ This is the current Vision of the Sri Lanka Police, unambiguously declared on its official website.

How many of us live today with confidence and without fear?

The government’s portrayal of the Police in Sri Lanka quite deliberately runs contrary to this Vision. In this article, I wish to examine the underlying message the government communicates to the public regarding the reliability of the Police, and to emphasize the dangers inherent in this message.

Every month, the President issues a statement declaring the inadequacy of the Police in Sri Lanka. The declaration goes unnoticed; yet the portrayal of the Police it seeks to reinforce in our collective conscience is clear. Many of us fail to detect the significance of the monthly Presidential Proclamation issued under section 12 of the Public Security Ordinance. The provision empowers the President to call out the armed forces for the maintenance of public order, if he is of the opinion that the Police is inadequate to deal with circumstances endangering public security in any area. The Army, the Navy and the Air Force are called out to maintain public order in each and every district of this country, signifying, in no uncertain terms, the inability of the Police to carry out this task.

In the context of periodic renunciations by the Head of State, should we dare ask why the Police fails to protect us? Police inaction should come as no surprise. It seems that no citizen in this country truly enjoys the right—even privilege—to be free from fear of crime and violence. The expectation of Police incompetence and the reality of Police inaction appear to be mutually reinforcing.

One of the grave—if not the gravest—threats faced by the minorities of today, comes from the incensed mob, bent on propagating fear and causing destruction. Hence it is Police inaction during mob violence that best measures the state of our society and the protections it affords to those who need the Police most. Police inaction during mob violence is so typical it has become an almost expected element in any incident. Several such incidents come to mind.

In April 2012, a mosque in Dambulla was attacked by a mob. The Police was informed of the impending attack. It not only failed to prevent the attack, it attended the ‘event’ and looked on helplessly as devotees were intimidated and prevented from entering their place of worship.

On 15 February 2013, the displaced victims of the Valikamam North High Security Zone held a peaceful hunger protest. As soon as the Leader of the Opposition left the protest, four Military Intelligence men went amok, attacking protesters and journalists. Yet again, the Police remained passive as the assailants destroyed equipment belonging to journalists and attacked innocent civilians. Despite repeated requests by TNA parliamentarians present at the protest, the Police took no action to arrest the culprits. And last week saw the attack on the TNA office in Kilinochchi by a mob carrying the national flag! I was present on that occassion when concrete stones and rocks were hurled for about half an hour while the Police looked on. Three persons apprehended by the people, including a CID officer, were promptly released by the Police. This was followed by a dastardly attack on the Uthayan Newspaper distribution office in Kilinochchi and employees were badly injured. Here too the assailants got away without any risk of being arrested by the Police.

Also last week, a mob attacked and vandalized a Muslim-owned business in Pepiliyana. Once again, the Police attended, but only to bolster numbers in the audience. Little was done to prevent or mitigate the attacks. In fact, there are photographs depicting Policemen haplessly looking on as the mob, which included Buddhist monks, vandalized the buildings.

One need not possess much imagination to speculate that, in each of these incidents, the Police was under strict orders to do just as they eventually did: remain passive. One might recall the distinct contrast in the brutal response of the Police to the protests led by students of the Jaffna University in November 2012. Hence there is little doubt that Police inaction during mob violence is quite deliberate—in effect, an ‘act’ of omission.

The message appears to be loud and clear; not only in the monthly Presidential Proclamations, but also in the manner in which the Police is repeatedly rendered powerless in the face of serious public disorder. The message is that the Police is incompetent, ill-equipped or simply unwilling to maintain law and order, even in a self-proclaimed peaceful society.

Why should this be of any concern to those who are presently left unthreatened?

The portrait of an apathetic or disempowered Police results in a type of dual psychosis. On the one hand, each Presidential Proclamation of Police inadequacy and each incident of orchestrated Police inaction create fear in the ordinary citizen. On the other, these events embolden the mob and remind them that law enforcement is more likely to be complicit in their deeds than to prevent them.

Lord Byron once wrote: ‘The sight of blood to crowds begets the thirst of more, as the first wine-cup leads to the long revel.’

I have often warned that the grievances of the ‘other’ rapidly become one’s own grievance. Today, the Tamil and the Muslim bear the brunt of impunity. Yet one might ask, how many Sinhalese who fall out of favour tomorrow might confidently rely on the Police to intervene in their moment of need? Take for example, the multi-ethnic, multi-religious group of lawyers who sought to peacefully protest the unconstitutional impeachment of the current Chief Justice Shirani Bandaranayake in Hulsftdorp in January this year. The Police not only failed to protect the rights of this group, it in fact actively aided a pro-government mob in suppressing the protest.

In conclusion, I ask: is this portrayal of the Police deliberate?

The historical portrayal of the Police as an apathetic or powerless entity has been quite deliberate. It achieves two things. First, it drenches us in fear and reinforces the constructed need for a militarised society. We are forced to be tentative; to censor ourselves when we ought to speak; to stay home when we ought to get out onto the streets. Second, it empowers extremism. The mob is now infused with confidence to proceed with the knowledge of State acquiescence. Without the Police, the mob is merely an unruly gathering, soon to be disbursed. But the pogroms of this era have taught us well that the Police plays its part through carefully orchestrated acts of omission. This regime, with its penchant for identity politics, stands to gain from such extremism. Hence I am not afraid to call this deliberate portrayal. Freedom from fear is the hallmark of any peaceful society. But ours has been deliberately deprived of that freedom.

*M A Sumanthiran - Member of Parliament, Tamil National Alliance

The empty findings of Sri Lanka’s Military Court of Inquiry

The empty findings of Sri Lanka’s Military Court of Inquiry

Colombo’s contempt for the international community seems to be increasing. The recent media release on the findings of the Military Court of Inquiry stretch credibility.

The empty findings of Sri Lanka’s Military Court of Inquiry

Yasmin Sooka-11 Apr, 2013

While I have not had access to the full report and to the evidence presented to the Military Court of Inquiry, I am shocked by the Court of Inquiry’s findings. I was a member of the The Panel of Experts appointed by the United Nations Secretary General, Ban Ki Moon, to look into accountabilty for the final stages of the war. The Panel rejected with utter certainty the notion that the Sri Lankan Military mounted a “humanitarian rescue” and that the war was conducted with “zero civilian casualties”. The Panel’s work revealed “a very different version of the final stages of the war than that maintained to this day by the Government of Sri Lanka“. The panel found “credible allegations” which, if proven, indicated that war crimes and crimes against humanity were committed by the Sri Lankan military and the rebel Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (Tamil Tigers). The Panel concluded that “the conduct of the war represented a grave assault on the entire regime of international law designed to protect individual dignity during both war and peace”. It also found that as many as 40,000 civilians may have been killed in the final months of the civil war, most as a result of indiscriminate shelling by the Sri Lankan military. The Panel’s work was further vindicated by the report of Charles Petrie, the UN official appointed by the UN Secretary General to look into the role played by the UN agencies on the ground during the conflict. Charles Petrie suggested in his report that the number of civilian casualties is probably closer to 70,000. This figure is staggering and points to an enormous loss of life. The Catholic Bishop of Manner has suggested that more than 147 000 people remain unaccounted for.

The Panel rejected the notion that in any war there are casualties which are inevitable. The Geneva Conventions exist for a purpose to ensure that the lives of innocent civilians are protected at all time.

The findings of the Military Court of Inquiry exonerate the military of any responsibility and attest to the fact that the Government of Sri Lanka and the Military cannot be trusted to investigate the crimes committed during the final phases of the conflict.

That is why an independent international inquiry is needed.

TNA rejects army report

April 11, 2013

The Tamil National Alliance (TNA) has rejected the report by the army court of inquiry, the first part of which was presented to Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa yesterday.

TNA MP Suresh Premachandran said that it is a “joke” for the army court to conclude that army had not killed a single civilian during the war.

He says the government must accept the truth, investigate the allegations and publicly accept its mistakes for there to be real reconciliation.

The army said that evidence before the army court had conclusively established that the war was conducted strictly in accordance with the “Zero Civilian Casualty” directive made by President Mahinda Rajapaksa and commanders at all times obeyed the said directive and even where the LTTE allegedly fired from No Fire Zones, commanders refrained from firing at such No Fire Zones. It has also been revealed that as an additional measure of safety, artillery commanders had added 500 meters more to the boundaries of No Fire Zoness given by higher headquarters.

The army court also noted that the International community had failed in their duty to stop war crimes committed by the LTTE.

Suresh Premachandran meanwhile dismissed claims by the government that India was responsible for the war.

He said that if successive governments had addressed the core issues faced by the Tamils then Tamil militant groups would not have formed in Sri Lanka in the first place.

“It’s absurd to blame India. All the mistakes are those made by the successive governments in Sri Lanka,” he said.

Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa had blamed the former Indian administration for the war in Sri Lanka which dragged for 30 years.

The government information department had quoted Rajapaksa as telling the local media that India could never absolve itself of the responsibility for creating terrorism in Sri Lanka, though some of those directly involved in subverting Sri Lanka were blaming the Rajapaksa administration for the plight of Tamil speaking people in the country. (Colombo Gazette)

Report by Easwaran Rutnam

Rajapaksa Power-Plays: Cheating Tamils And Demonising Muslims

By Tisaranee Gunasekara -April 11, 2013 

“With or without anticipation, Israeli policies helped shaped the kinds of enemies that pledge to sacrifice their lives to fight the Jewish state…” Saul Landau (IPS – 29.2.2009)

The Rajapaksas are masters at the art of political marketing. They have developed an ‘all you need to know’ crash course in building innocuous facades to hide insalubrious realities. Perhaps all the people cannot be fooled all the time. But, going by the Rajapaksa record, fooling all the people some of the time and some of the people all of the time can more than suffice.

For a while, at least.

Can the Rajapaksas continue to cheat the Tamils and demonise the Muslims with total impunity, endlessly? Or is their run of luck petering out, finally?

From 2006, the Siblings have promised varying degrees of devolution to the Tamils. Every promise was observed in the breach. Four years after the war ended, the North remains a de facto occupied territory, with little normalcy and even less democracy.

Last year President Rajapaksa promised to hold provincial elections in the North in September 2013. If that promise is kept, the North will have an elected provincial council in five months, headed, most probably by theTNA.
Will the Siblings honour that promise? Or will that too become an empty pledge?

What did Gotabhaya Rajapaksa mean when he said, “The ongoing crisis in the Southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu, over accountability issues here, should discourage those pushing for devolution of power under the 13th Amendment to the Constitution. A hostile Provincial Council Administration in the Northern or the Eastern province in Sri Lanka could be inimical to the post-war national reconciliation process”. (The Island – 29.3.2013)

Are the Siblings planning to postpone PC polls in the North? Can they get away with it?

Lankan National Interests vs. Rajapaksa Familial Interests

Holding a reasonably free and fair election for the Northern provincial council, on time, is the most sensible course of action from the point of view of Lankan national interests. Such an election will satisfy the moderate majority and isolate the hardline fringe in Tamil Nadu (after all, the plight of Lankan Tamils is not the sole issue in Tamil Nadu politics). In fact nothing will prick the pro-Tiger balloon in Tamil Nadu faster than a functioning provincial council in the North, consequent to a free and fair election. Every time the Rajapaksas delay the Northern PC poll, they play into the hands of the pro-Tiger lobby in India and in the West. Every postponement merely proves the hardliners in the Diaspora right and turn Vellupillai Pirapaharan into a prophet, posthumously.

The Rajapaksa reluctance to hold PC polls in the North is sourced not in national security concerns but in concerns about their own power. The Siblings are as opposed to devolution of power as they are to separation of power. Any lingering doubts on that score should have died with the impeachment of the Chief Justice and the supine conduct of the Usurping CJ.

In order to win the Northern provincial council election, the Rajapaksas will have to engage in violence and malpractices (including outright rigging) on a horrendously massive scale. And they will have to do so throughout the campaign plus on the day of the election. Such a manifestly unfree, unfair and violent electoral process will inflame Tamil Nadu. It will also strengthen the demand for a boycott of the Hambantota Commonwealth.

Is postponement the way out? Can the Rajapaksas use their usual delaying/deflecting/time-buying tactics with customary impunity? Or will they have to pay a price, this once?

The Siblings neutralised Delhi in the past, with a combination of guile and unctuousness. According to a Wikileaks cable, President Rajapakse achieved Indian neutrality during the Fourth Eelam War by offering New Delhi a carefully calibrated combination of information and misinformation, false promises and dissembling reassurances. He allayed Indian fears about the human cost of the war by promising a ceasefire, reassuring New Delhi officials that, post-conflict, he would undertake to implement a political solution to the ethnic problem. According to one cable, a senior Indian official informed the US ambassador that ‘President Rajapakse had agreed to announce on April 27 a cessation of hostilities with the LTTE’ after consulting his cabinet, and the NSA wanted the Americans to stay silent ‘until Rajapakse fulfils his pledge and announces the pause’. According to another cable, the Indians assured the Americans that Rajapakse ‘intends to pursue political devolution (‘the thirteenth amendment plus’) and will make a gesture soon to win over Sri Lanka’s Tamils’.

Given this record, the Rajapaksas might be thinking that they can postpone the Northern PC poll without suffering any major ill effects of Indian provenance. If Delhi proves uncharacteristically recalcitrant, Colombo can always use the threat of Chinese subs enjoying unrestricted access to Lankan waters. Indeed, Delhi may prefer to limit itself to mere rhetoric, but concerns about electoral futures and national stability might preclude such an insouciant response. Congress administration will be concerned about national elections in 2014 while the Indian state would worry about the radicalising effect the unresolved ethnic problem will have on Tamil Nadu. A postponement of the Northern PC poll would be a whole red flag to the Tamil Nadu bull, electorally and politically. Therefore Delhi is unlikely to allow Colombo to break this promise with the same ease and impunity as it broke every previous promise.

And the Indians do have a handle this time – the Hambantota Commonwealth Summit. An Indian threat to boycott the Hambantota Summit can seriously derail the Commonwealth hopes of the Rajapaksas.

So the Siblings are facing a conundrum. They cannot have the election because they are bound to loose it. They cannot postpone the election because that is likely to incense Delhi upset the Commonwealth-applecart.

So what will the Rajapaksas do? Manufacture a crisis? If so what form will it take? The resurrection of theLTTE? An outbreak of anti-Muslim violence? A TNA-Al Qaeda nexus? Will Kuragala be turned into a mini-Ayodhya? Will there be some ‘incident’ in the North, which can be blamed on Tiger-remnants backed by Tamil Nadu?

Whatever the crisis the Rajapaksas manufacture, it will have to be carefully calibrated. It cannot be a generalised crisis since that will strengthen the demand for a Commonwealth venue-change. And any bogey will have to have a limited-reach because one with a national presence will bolster the boycott demand.

The Rajapaksas may or may not succeed in conjuring such a localised crisis and a circumscribed bogey. They might succeed in postponing the Northern PC poll without endangering the Hamantota Commonwealth dream or they might not. But they cannot cheat the Tamils and demonise the Muslims without seriously undermining Sri Lanka’s national security. The attempt to disempower the minorities and forcibly weld them into a Sinhala-led nation might help cement Rajapaksa Rule; but it will also cause the country to careen into a new conflict.

Already the Lankan Diaspora is as large as 3 million – this in a country of just 22 million. If a new conflict erupts, all those who can get out will do so, leaving this place a festering hell for the rest.

Rs. 57 b ‘duty free’ ride for public servants’ vehicles

April 11, 2013 

The Government has forgone a staggering Rs. 57 billion in revenue during the past two years in granting duty free concessions for import of vehicles for public servants.

The hefty sum was revealed in the Central Bank’s 2012 Annual Report released on Tuesday.
It said according to the Ministry of Finance and Planning estimates, the Government had forgone Rs.38.6 billion due to the exemptions of relevant taxes on vehicles procured by public servants on concessionary duty terms in 2012 and in the previous the figure is estimated at Rs. 18.3 billion.
Additionally, the Government had also forgone nearly Rs. 20.8 billion due to the VAT exemptions given to specified projects [the VAT on specified projects under sections c(xxiii) and f(ii) of the exemption schedule of the Value Added Tax Act No. 14 of 2002 and respective amendments thereto] last year whilst the figure in 2011 was Rs. 8.5 billion.
The Central Bank said total Government revenue as a percentage of GDP declined significantly to 13.0% in 2012 compared to 14.3% recorded in the previous year and 14.7% projected in the budget entirely due to decline in tax revenue as a percentage of GDP.
Concessions apart, the decline in imports especially consumer goods, subdued domestic economic activities also contributed to lower revenue performance.

However, in nominal terms Government revenue increased by 5.7% to Rs. 987.8 billion during the year from Rs. 934.8 billion in the previous year.
The Central Bank said in order to address the issues relating to Government revenue, committed efforts would be required in the near future through the existing tax structure by strengthening the collecting process in revenue agencies and improving tax administration while improving the financial viability of State-owned enterprises to reduce their reliance on the Government budget and to increase non tax revenue in the form of profits and dividend transfers.
Such an endeavour would help generate revenue surpluses which could be used for capital expenditure, thereby reducing debt financing, the Bank’s 2012 Annual Report added.
Tax revenue as a percentage of GDP continued to decline to 11.1% in 2012 from 12.4% in 2011, although in nominal terms it increased by 4.0% to Rs. 845.3 billion.
Total tax revenue was 84.5% of the budgetary target for 2012 and the shortfall was mainly due to the reduction in revenue from VAT on imports, import duties, ESC and excise tax on motor vehicles. It was evident that the indirect taxes remained the major source of tax revenue in 2012 accounting for 79.6% of the total tax revenue, compared to 80.6% in 2011.
The share of income tax revenue in total revenue increased to 20.4% in 2012 from 19.4% in 2011. Revenue from income taxes as a percentage of GDP declined marginally by 0.1% to 2.3% in 2012, although in nominal terms, it increased by 9.7% to Rs. 172.6 billion from Rs. 157.3 billion in 2011. The notable increase in the collection of withholding taxes contributed to the improvement in income tax revenue in 2012.
 Revenue from withholding tax grew significantly by 56.2% to Rs. 59.6 billion in 2012, reflecting an increase in the volume as well as the maturity structure of new Treasury bond issues, higher borrowings through rupee denominated instruments and relatively high interest rates prevailing in the domestic market, compared to the previous year. Corporate and non corporate tax revenue increased only marginally due to lower than expected revenue collected particularly from banking and financial services and the external trade activities.
The Pay-As-You-Earn (PAYE) tax collection declined marginally during the year.
Revenue from the ESC declined significantly by 30.3% reflecting the simplification of the ESC, exemptions and the increase in the quarterly threshold to Rs. 50 million from Rs. 25 million. Revenue from VAT as a percentage of GDP declined significantly to 2.7% in 2012 compared to 3.3% in 2011 and 3.5% expected in the budget.
The decline in revenue from VAT in 2012 was mainly due to the granting of exemptions, decline in imports as a result of the policy measures introduced in early 2012 and subdued domestic economic activity.
In nominal terms also, revenue from VAT in 2012 declined by 5.0% to Rs. 204.8 billion from 215.6 billion in 2011 mainly due to a reduction of import related VAT collection. Consequently, the contribution from VAT revenue to total tax revenue declined to 24.2% in 2012 from 26.5% in 2011 and 30.4% in 2010. VAT on domestic goods and services increased by 2% to Rs. 105.3 billion. VAT on imports declined by 11.4% to Rs. 99.4 billion mainly due to a decline in imports, specially motor vehicles, and the granting of exemptions to imports related to strategic investment projects. Further, the contribution from VAT on domestic goods and services to total tax revenue marginally declined to 12.5% in 2012 from 12.7% in 2011.
Revenue from excise duties as a percentage of GDP declined to 2.5% in 2012 from 2.8% in 2011 due to a decline in excise duty collected from motor vehicle imports. However, in nominal terms revenue from excise duties increased by 3.2% to Rs. 191.9 billion in 2012 from Rs. 186 billion in 2011. Meanwhile, the share of excise duties in total tax revenue declined to 22.7% in 2012 from 22.9% in 2011. Revenue from excise duties on motor vehicles declined by 12% to Rs. 46.5 billion from Rs. 52.8 billion recorded in the previous year.
During the year, revenue from excise duties on liquor increased by 8.7% to Rs. 60.1 billion supported by the scaling up of excise duty rates on liquor and the higher production of malt liquor. Revenue from excise duties on cigarettes and tobacco increased by 7.9% to Rs. 53.6 billion in 2012, mainly due to the periodical upward revisions of excise duty rates during the year even though there was a decline in cigarette sales by 4.3% during the year. Excise tax revenue from petroleum imports increased by 26.7% during 2012, due to an increase in the importation of refined petroleum products.
Revenue from NBT as a percentage of GDP remained at 0.5% in 2012, whereas NBT collection in nominal terms increased by 8.6% to Rs. 38.7 billion from Rs. 35.7 billion in 2011. NBT on domestic goods and services increased by 21.2% to Rs. 23.1 billion mainly due to improved performance in the construction and tourism industries. Further, increased registration of wholesale and retail businesses liable for NBT contributed to the growth in NBT collection during that period. However, with the negative growth in imports, NBT collected from imports declined by 5.8% to Rs. 15.7 billion in 2012.
Total revenue from import duties and the SCL as a percentage of GDP remained at 1.4% in 2012, although in nominal terms, it increased by 17.0% to Rs. 107.2 billion.
Although revenue from import duties was expected to increase by 23.4% as per the budget estimates for 2012, it declined by 3.3% to Rs. 73.5 billion due to the decline in imports from the second quarter of 2012. The share of import duties in total tax revenue came down significantly to 8.7% in 2012 from 9.3% in 2011.
The average customs duty rate, including SCL increased to 4.4% in 2012 from 4.1% in 2011. Further, revenue from import duties from motor vehicle imports declined significantly by 50% to Rs. 14.1 billion in 2012 from Rs. 28.4 billion in 2011 reflecting the lower growth in motor vehicle imports during the year due to the implementation of policy measures to curtail imports and the depreciation of Sri Lanka rupee.
Revenue from SCL increased significantly to Rs. 33.7 billion in 2012 from Rs. 15.6 billion recorded in 2011 with the imposition of SCL on several new commodities such as fish, soya bean oil, palm oil, sunflower oil and coconut oil. The share of SCL in total tax revenue increased significantly to 4.0% in 2012 from 1.9% in 2011.
Revenue from other taxes showed a mixed performance during 2012. Revenue from Port and Airport Development Levy (PAL) declined to 0.9% of GDP in 2012 from 1.0% of GDP in 2011. However, in nominal terms, it increased by 5.5% to Rs. 70.1 billion in 2012 from Rs. 66.4 billion in 2011 due to the wider tax base and the granting of fewer exemptions.
In nominal terms, revenue from Cess increased by 10.4% to Rs. 32.7 billion in 2012 from Rs. 29.6 billion in 2011. The introduction of Cess on several new items in early 2012 largely contributed to the higher Cess collection in 2012.
Revenue from the Telecommunications Levy increased significantly by 19.5% to Rs. 22.3 billion in 2012, from Rs. 18.6 billion in the previous year mainly due to an increase in the telephone density. Revenue from license fees and other taxes in nominal terms declined by 33.9% to Rs. 4.9 billion in 2012 from Rs. 7.4 billion in 2011.
Non tax revenue as a percentage of GDP remained at 1.9% in 2012 as in the previous year and it is significantly above the budgetary target. In nominal terms, non tax revenue increased by 16.7% to Rs. 142.5 billion in 2012 from Rs. 122.2 billion in 2011 mainly due to an increase in Central Bank profit transfers, which increased significantly by 95.5% to Rs. 43 billion in 2012.
Profits and dividend transfers from other State-owned enterprises increased by 36.1% to Rs. 46.8 billion in 2012 compared to Rs. 34.3 billion recorded in 2011. However, fees and charges which represented more than 18% of non tax revenue, declined significantly to Rs. 26 billion compared to Rs. 37.3 billion recorded in 2011 and Rs. 30.2 billion estimated in the budget.
Other non tax revenues such as social security contributions, interest and rent, also declined in 2012 in comparison to the previous year as estimated in the budget. The share of non tax revenue in total revenue increased to 14.4% in 2012 from 13.1% in 2011.