Sustaining Change In Myanmar
Col. (retd) R.Hariharan
Strategic context of change
Myanmar is in the throes of change since 2010 after the first-ever multi-party election was held after two decades. President Thein Sein has surprised all the stakeholders by the speed with which he is transforming the government from an insensitive military dictatorship to a democratic rule of sorts, despite the limitations imposed by the Constitution 2008. As a result Myanmar has become the focus of international attention and even approval.
Geographically located on the eastern borders of India, and on the South and Southeast of China, Myanmar’s strategic value for two most populated nations of the world is immense. This is further enhanced with the impending completion of two infrastructure projects linking Myanmar with China and India. The China-funded Kyakpu port project with road link and gas and oil pipelines to Yunnan in China is likely to be completed in the next few months. This would provide China a direct strategic access to the Indian Ocean by passing the choke point at Malacca Strait. Apart from security implications, it would make Chinese exports to the under exploited South Asian market more competitive, while helping the development of Yunnan province.
Similarly India’s Kaladan multi modal project providing easier road and river access for India’s troubled Northeast to Sittwe port in Myanmar is expected to be completed in May 2014. This link could act as a catalyst for the development of Northeastern states of India as it would open a direct route for India’s trade with Myanmar and the rest of ASEAN. In tandem with China’s direct access through Kyakpu, Sino-Indian trade will have greater opportunities to flourish. And we can expect China to enlarge its foot print further in South Asia.
China’s increasing belligerence in East and South China seas has become a cause for concern for Japan and its close ally the U.S. It threatens to destabilize the U.S.’s dominance in East Asia and longstanding strategic equation with Japan, South Korea and Philippines. China’s contentious territorial claims on South China Sea have become louder. To contain this development, the U.S. has been trying to enlarge its strategic periphery from Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific. As a key geostrategic entity in this region, Myanmar is well on its way to become a focus nation of the U.S., shedding its out caste status of earlier years.
During the last three decades, China had carefully cultivated Mynamar’s military junta by providing vital economic and political help to soften the crippling effect of international sanctions imposed upon the country after the military refused to hand over power to the democratically elected civilian government in 1990. China chose to ignore the struggle for restoration of democracy by the National League for Democracy (NLD) under the leadership of Ms Aung San Suu Kyi. Although India and ASEAN countries did not observe the sanctions and built their own links with the military regime, it is Chinese influence that predominates in Myanmar, particularly in the armed forces, infrastructure, mining and trade and commerce.
The cosy relationship China had built over the years in Myanmar is under threat now. Sustained international pressures and support to Ms Suu Kyi’s campaign spearheaded by the U.S. ultimately compelled the military regime to come out with the 2008 Constitution which gives limited democracy to the people. China had no option but to go along with the international community on the democratic reforms in keeping with its growing international profile.
Ever since the civilian government came to power and started taking up political, economic and structural reforms process, the U.S. has started rebuilding its relations with Myanmar. As a result the U.S. sanctions are progressively being lifted to facilitate greater opportunities for U.S. business in Myanmar. President Obama’s visit in November 2012 came perhaps as the final recognition of President Thein’s earnest effort in the democratic exercise. As increasing U.S. presence in Myanmar is eating into the Chinese sphere of influence, it has become a matter of concern to China. Chinese media had been lamenting the failure of its policy makers to cultivate the democratic constituency in Myanmar.
Though Chinese are trying to repair their relationship with leaders like Ms Suu Kyi, in the amorphous state of politics in the country it will be quite some time for results to emerge. However, China as a neighbour with enormous economic and military power will continue to enjoy wide spread influence in Myanmar for some time to come. However, China would always be on watching with extra attention the U.S. initiatives in Myanmar in the context of regional security and trading regimes. This would become even more important when Myanmar assumes the chairmanship of ASEAN in 2014.
Unlike China, India’s relationship had been more laid back. However, Myanmar’s historical cultural and religious experience and shared colonial history with India makes Myanmar more comfortable in dealing with Indians. India’s presence as a friendly and powerful neighbor enables Myanmar to somewhat balance China’s overwhelming influence. This could become a potential game changer as and when India-U.S. strategic relationship grows. Indian efforts to enlarge its economic and strategic relationship are not on the same league as China.
However, given the entrepreneurial spirit of Indians which is second only to the Chinese, we can expect it to grow more rapidly in the coming years. Indian leadership of all political hues is aware of the importance of Myanmar in India’s overall strategic spectrum. And as democracy comes to stay in Myanmar its equation with India is likely to make rapid progress.
Myanmar’s ability of to sustain political and economic changes now underway has to be viewed in this overall strategic context.
Gratiaen Shortlist Announced
March 27, 2013 |
Celebrating 20 years of recognizing and awarding the best work in English by resident Sri Lankan writers the Gratiaen Prize opened awards season with the announcement of its 2012 shortlist at Park Street Mews on Friday 22 March 2013.
It’s not in the Stars by Rizvina Morseth de Alwis. This unpublished novel was described by the judges as an insightful rendering of the distressing impact the seminal events of contemporary Sri Lanka have had on its many ethnic and religious communities.
Kalumaali by Ruwanthie de Chickera and Nadie Kammallaweera. In the judges’ view this unpublished drama script is an innovatively structured play which works at the level of magical story for children and as powerful theatre for adults exploring the identity crisis of a working woman and a mother.
Playing Pillow Politics at MGK by Lal Medawattegedera. This unpublished novel was described as a thematically and formally innovative work mixing realism with the allegorical. It provides a daring perspective on contemporary urban, social and political realities.
Open Words are for Love-Letting by Malinda Seneviratne. This published poetry collection was seen by the judges as an engaging collection of poetry that demonstrates poetry as a word-scape, patterns of tone and images of sound.
The Professional by Saroj Sinnetamby. This unpublished novel was described as a highly engrossing, imaginatively presented novel, focusing on the hard choices confronting down-at-heel migrants from mainly the Third World in the impersonal ‘Big Cities’ of the First World.
The judges explained that the submissions this year were very strong and that while it was difficult to limit the shortlist to five works of literature, their ultimate decision was unanimous. The judging panel consists of: Jayantha Dhanapala (Chair), a distinguished former career diplomat and currently President of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs; Lynn Ockersz, a senior journalist, a published poet and a lecturer in journalism; and Sumathy Sivamohan, a writer, dramatist, filmmaker and academic who is currently head of the Department of English at the University of Peradeniya. For further information on the judges and past winners with extracts of their work, see www.gratiaen.com.
When the Gratiaen Prize was instituted two decades ago by Michael Ondaatje, Sri Lankan writing in English had already begun to gain a global profile but this was almost exclusively by writers domiciled outside Sri Lanka. In the ensuing years a number of Sri Lanka-based writers, recognized by the Gratiaen, achieved critical and popular success regionally and internationally. The first winner, Carl Muller was published by Penguin India, Elmo Jayawardene by Marshall and Cavendish in Singapore and poets such as Vivimarie VanderPoorten and dramatists/film makers such as Ruwanthie de Chickera and Viskesa Chandrasekaram have produced and performed internationally, with perhaps the most iconic “Gratiaen success” being achieved by Shehan Karunatilaka for his Chinaman which won both the DSC Prize for South Asian Literature and the Commonwealth Book Prize in addition to being published by Random House India and Jonathan Cape, UK.
(Lanka-e-News- 26.March.2013,9.30PM) A new Board has been appointed in regard to those Sri Lankans who are abroad seeking dual citizenship. The most curious feature of this Board is, while dual citizenship is a matter coming under the purview of the Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of internal affairs , this new Board’s chief is Gotabaya Rajapakse , the defense Ministry secretary.
The latest travel advice on Sri Lanka issued by the British Foreign and Commonwealth office, maintains that the end of the military conflict in May 2009 has seen an upsurge of nationalism in Sri Lanka. 
