A “Geezer” Columnist In The English Media of Sri Lanka!

By Emil van der Poorten -October 7, 2012

Emil van der Poorten

Being afforded the luxury of indulging an ambition dating back to my teen years to enter journalism, I began to write for publication in a variety of Sri Lankan journals a couple of years after my return to the land of my birth in 2006.

The first newspaper to indulge my ambitions as a journalist was the Sunday English Lakbimanews. That exercise ceased after about three or four columns were published when it was obvious that I was not about to be paid for my efforts, something guaranteed when the relationship began!

Then it was material being published, sometimes pseudonymously, in the Sunday Times, the Sunday Island, Montage magazine and, finally, the Sunday Leader. The Sunday Times, I now believe, because of a relationship with the Rajapakse Regimesimilar to that between that Regime and Ranil Wickremesinghe, gradually tapered off my “Haris Tumpane” column. Where, initially at least, I accepted the non-publication of my weekly writing as being due to the exigencies of advertising demands etc., I was ultimately forced into the recognition that this was driven by a need to ensure a particular editorial “line” vis-à-vis the government which my writing was not in consonance with. This was confirmed when, after it seemed that “advertising pressures” had eased and there was room for a return of my “Tales from the Backwoods,” I was told (via the “grapevine”) that “We can’t touch you with a barge-pole!” By then this hardly surprised me, coming from a newspaper which would not publish anything contradictory to what their company lawyer had to say in his journalistic contributions to its pages!

For the past three and a half years, on the invitation of the woman who had taken Lasantha Wickrematunga’s place on his assassination, I have been a columnist, with the “Renaissance Man” by-line, in The Sunday Leader and, during that time, despite a few hiccups have enjoyed the exercise! Recently, subsequent toAsanga Seneviratne buying a 70%+ controlling interest in the paper, Frederica Jansz was fired for allegedly refusing to toe a new editorial line at the newspaper that, until then, proclaimed on its front page that it was “Unbowed and Unafraid.” By a strange coincidence, my column disappeared from the paper on Sunday the 23rd of September, as well! I have since been assured that this was due to some kind of mix-up and that my column would continue to appear. That I am taking this assurance “under advisement” should not surprise anyone given the circumstances. Suffice it to say that, in spite of significant arrears of payment going back several months, I shall continue to supply copy to The Sunday Leader until and unless there is ever an attempt to gag me or censor my material to fulfill someone else’s political agenda.

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Academicians express solidarity with protesting Sri Lanka teachers

COLOMBO, October 6, 2012

As the three-month-old agitation by teachers, which has crippled universities in Sri Lanka, including Jaffna, shows no sign of ending in an amicable manner; prominent academics from India have joined a large group of intellectuals from different parts of the globe, to express solidarity with the protesting teachers.

They said that they were “deeply concerned” with the crisis in Sri Lanka’s higher education sector.

In a joint statement, 22 scholars noted that only 1.86 per cent of the GDP was being spent on education in the island nation.

They pointed that the drastic decline in state investment was related to mounting issues in the education sector.

“Such a predicament has led to the university teachers’ protests, agitations by teachers’ unions and demonstrations by students. These interventions have brought our attention to the crisis of education in Sri Lanka. We stand in solidarity with the teachers, academics and students in Sri Lanka, who have taken it upon themselves to shed some light on this crisis,” said the statement, signed by noted economists such as Venkatesh Athreya, C. P. Chandrasekhar, Jayati Ghosh, Prabhat Patnaik, Utsa Patnaik, and C. Rammanohar Reddy.

“The post-war period holds much promise for the people in Sri Lanka, and in that hope, we appeal to the Government of Sri Lanka, university and teachers’ unions, students’ movements, parents’ organisations, and foreign aid donors to engage the crisis in education, and arrive at a solution that can rebuild the foundation for a democratic and prosperous society. The international community is watching Sri Lanka to see if past achievements in education will once again be revitalised,” it said.

“Our appeal to address the crisis in education has as much to do with education, as it has to do with building the foundation of democracy. Prioritising and democratising education is imperative to the process of rebuilding a just and prosperous society. As people who have invested in accessible, fair and just education for all persons, globally, we strongly urge the Government of Sri Lanka to take immediate note of the education crisis, negotiate with teachers and university teachers’ unions in good faith, and put in place a vibrant process to address this serious concern,” it added.

And We Must All Walk The Talk

By Malinda Seneviratne -October 7, 2012 

Malinda Seneviratne

The Government could say that FUTA (Federation of University Teachers’ Associations) inflated the numbers. They could say that NGO money frilled it. They could say that lecturers and others were pawns or were complicit in a sinister political game.
Analysts could say that the demands are unjust or else indicative of infantile analytical ability which itself subverts the agitation and robs it of moral authority. Few, it could be said, would have understood what the ‘6%’ slogansignified, even if a cogent argument around that figure could be made.
Some might say, on the lines of that old adage, ‘no taxation without representation’, that ‘rights without responsibility’ and ‘free education without moral obligation to return the favor to society’ just do not make sense.
A lot more indeed has been said about the long march organized by FUTA from Galle to Colombo last week. For example, that just as it was about ‘state education’ and ‘saving’ of the same, it was also an avenue to express frustration, anger, fear and such regarding what the Government has been and has not being doing over the past several years.
Times have changed since this country went through ‘1971’ and ‘1988-89’ and what those years signify. A few decades ago an undergraduate who owned a push bicycle might have been called ‘privileged’. Later, there were scooters and motorcycles. Today some come to campus by car. Many have laptops. They have sophisticated cameras too. The FUTA campaign is all over Facebook. Blogs dedicated to the struggle or else which have adopted it as something that warrants daily comment have mushroomed.
Does all this mean that the general population has somehow been yanked out or has upped itself out of endemic poverty? Does it mean that those who benefit from free education must always look poor? No. The truth is that although things don’t trickle down the way some economics would like us to believe they would, things have got better at the bottom. This does not mean that the ‘top’ has idled. The truth is that gaps have widened. Costs have soared. Just because an undergraduate rides a motorcycle or wields a camcorder or hammers out status updates about an agitation campaign on Facebook, this does not mean that higher education costs have come down or that they have become affordable to the vast majority of the population somehow.

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UN Human Rights Chief Yet To Decide On Sri Lankan Visit

By Easwaran Rutnam

Navi Pillay

A UN delegation, which visited Sri Lanka recently, is currently briefing the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) Navi Pillay on their findings, a UN spokesperson told The Sunday Leader.
Ravina Shamdasani from the Communications Section of the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights at the United Nations in Geneva said that Pillay is yet to decide on a proposed visit to Sri Lanka.
The delegation from OHCHR visited Sri Lanka last month as a follow up to a resolution adopted on Sri Lanka at the UN Human Rights Council in March this year.
As part of the visit to Sri Lanka, the three-member delegation toured the north and also had discussions in Colombo with top government officials.
The delegation headed by Hanny Megally, Chief, Asia Pacific and Middle East and North African Branch of OHCHR included Oscar Solers, the human rights officer at OHCHR.
The government had invited Pillay to visit Sri Lanka to see for herself the post war developments in the country.
However Pillay had proposed that a delegation from her office first visit the country and prepare the groundwork for her visit.
“Ms. Pillay is being briefed by the mission delegation and will make a decision on this (visiting Sri Lanka) in due course,” Shamdasani told The Sunday Leader.
During the visit to Sri Lanka the delegation had met the Minister of Economic Affairs Basil Rajapaksa and discussed human rights issues in the country.
The Minister had told the delegation that the government has safeguarded the human rights of the war displaced people by ensuring a life without fear and uncertainly, providing facilities to start a new life in their original places, developing infrastructure and helping to develop their livelihood.
Rajapaksa also told the delegation that during the conflict the government provided food and other basic requirements to the civilians in the government controlled areas and LTTE controlled areas without any discrimination.

Open Letter To All Parents: For The Sake Of Quality Education

By Nedra Karunaratne –October 7, 2012 

Prof. Nedra Karunaratne

Today this country is facing a dilemma over education at all levels. The universities have been closed for over three months due to the academic staff strike. Previously it was disfunctional for a month because the non-academic staff staged a strike. The students have been at home for more than four months. The clock is still ticking the hours away wasting the lives of thousands of young adults in their prime. Nero fiddled while Rome burned. Who is fiddling while the long established successful education system is showing signs of bursting into flames? What measures are needed for reforming the system to re-establish the once hallowed portals of learning? As a parent, how much do you know and what do you feel?

Primary education

It is known that the primary schools in most rural areas are running at bare minimum. The most affected are the rural poor who do not have the means of sending their children to schools with better facilities miles away from home. When the Grade V scholarship results were released, it was heartening to note that the first place was shared by a rural child from the hill country with a more privileged child from a prestigious school from down south. The hardships this rural child had borne to access a school from her home is unthinkable for those used to a comfortable city life attending city schools within their reach (2 miles or a few school van miles away!). That too, in order for this girl to attend the closest school and not a National school that many fight to get their children in. The proud parents of the child from the city school had the opportunity to get an audience with the president. What of the poor child from the village? This is a good example of the privileged having facilities and the means to attain their objectives, while the poor are left to wonder where their next meal is coming from.

In the process of writing this article, the sentiments expressed by Prof. Carmen Wickramagamage regarding scholarship examinations grabbed my attention. “A tale of two kids and future of free education in SL” in the island of 3rd October 2012 is a story relating the anguish of both parents and little children subjected to a useless process in the name of education. It narrates the two cases where support (pressure exerted in many cases) given by parents in the case of the child from the city and the natural ability of a persevering and enterprising child from the village had yielded the same result. The question here is why parents take such pleasure in advocating excellence at this young age. The inherent abilities and creativity are suppressed with no room for free thinking when examinations dominate the life of the child. The blame should partly go to the education ministry for making this a compulsory examination. It used to be optional and only for the purpose of selecting the bright from underprivileged areas for better educational facilities in the cities. In todays context where no child who fails in a class from year 1 to year 10 is kept back, why subject children to this unnecessary exercise depriving many of a happy and carefree childhood. This is the only period in our life time that we can really say we had no burdens to carry. But can the children of today anticipate happy childhood memories? Parents please do not deprive your children of their fundamental right to a hassle free acquisition of knowledge useful for their future life. The Grade V examination does nothing to enhance useful knowledge or inculcate character traits. On the contrary, all it does is to create a hostile environment between class mates and over ambitious parents.

Secondary education                         Read More

Socialism?
Photo courtesy socialistworld.net

Groundviews 

Over the past months there has been a debate in some newspapers regarding socialism and/or socialism vs. capitalism. It is a great thing to see happening, especially as the globalised economic downturn intensifies and is sure to be a long-lasting one.

In this debate, however, it is sometimes hard to see what is exactly meant by the word ‘socialism.’ For example, many people term the policies of the Bandaranaike governments as socialist – because there was a tendency to have the government run certain industries, such as transportation, steel and insurance, or to have state welfare programmes. If such is the definition, then most European countries and even the United States would qualify as socialist on some ground or another. Others seem to define socialism as being what existed in the Soviet Union and Eastern European countries: this involved a heavy state hand in not only industrial and agricultural production, but in controlling dissent and thought via undemocratic systems. Again, on such grounds the United States, for example, would qualify by way of its systems of government subsidies to agriculture and certain industries (and economic planning during war) and systems of dealing with dissent (old and new forms of McCarthyism). In both these definitions the underlying assumption is that all potential socialist systems would be run in the same manner. These are convenient constructs, making it then easy to dismiss all attempts in total, and to dismiss socialism in general.

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Customs raid MP Wasantha Perera’s illegal liquor distillery

Sunday, 07 October 2012

Sri Lanka Customs has managed to raid an illegal distillery belonging to Matale District parliamentarian Wasantha Perera. The illegal operation had been carried out for a long time.

The Hingurana Sugar Company belongs to the parliamentarian and the spirit, which is a by-product in the manufacture of sugar, is being used to manufacture arrack. Although a tax of Rs. 450 per bottle has to be paid as taxes, the parliamentarian had avoided paying taxes amounting to Rs. 350 million to the Inland Revenue Department.

In order to overcome this tax issues, the parliamentarian is operating a distillery to produce spirits in the Dompe area. The illegal distillery had been recently raided by Customs officials.

Details about this distillery had been revealed when investigations were carried into a stock of spirits that had been imported under the guise of being used to produce perfumes and later used for the manufacture of arrack.

Since taxes are imposed on imported spirits this distillery had been carried out to give the impression that the spirits were being locally manufactured. The raid had revealed that hundreds of barrels of spirits had been manufactured on a daily basis at the distillery for the production of illegal kasippu and arrack.

It has also been revealed that the spirits used in the manufacture of alcohol were not suitable for human consumption. Two containers of urea fertilizer, a sugar container, five containers of formalin used to embalm dead bodies and five containers of caustic soda were found in the premises. These containers had been brought down to be used in the manufacturing process.

A Customs official said that the intestines and other internal organs of any person who consumed alcohol manufactured in this distillery would have melted.

Although a large number of illegal activities carried out by the parliamentarian had been revealed following the raid, Head of the Presidential Staff, Gamini Senarath has asked the head of Customs to stop the investigation.

Finance Ministry Secretary Dr. P.B. Jayasundera had also reprimanded the Customs Chief for carrying out the work of the Excise Department.

It is also learnt that the Customs official, Lankadeva, who had initiated the raid on Perera’s illegal distillery is now facing death threats.

Meanwhile, Dr. Jayasundera had also ordered to write off the Rs. 300 million taxes due from the Hingurana Sugar Company for manufacturing spirits.

In A Familial State, All Of This Is As It Should Be

By Tisaranee Gunasekara –October 6, 2012

“…when the plague begins, it’s easy for people to see the first blackbird as a harbinger. But when it lands on the climbing fence it’s just one bird”.
Salman Rushdie (Joseph Anton: A Memoir)

constitutional path to tyranny is a well-worn one; its many previous travellers include a former corporal named Adolf Hitler. Sri Lanka took a giant leap along this path with the 18th Amendment. The Divineguma Bill, prepared in equal secrecy and propelled with similar unseemly haste, constitutes the second gigantic leap. The 1978 Constitution created an overweening executive. The 13th and 17th Amendments sought to correct the resulting power-imbalance. The 17th Amendment was a 100% home-grown product; the consequent absence of a foreign protector enabled the Rajapaksas to hatchet it, with the 18th Amendment.
The 13th Amendment remains a major impediment to the Rajapaksa-project. The siblings do not dare to decapitate it at one go, because it was an Indian construct. Instead, they will undermine it, measure by measure, until devolution evaporates. To understand the Divineguma Bill, ignore the rhetoric and study the budgetary figures. Ministry of Defence and Urban Development, (under Mahinda and Gotabhaya Rajapaksa) will get the biggest financial chunk in 2013 as well. Currently, only Rs. 88.9 billion is allocated to Brother Basil’s Ministry of Economic Development. Once the Divineguma Bill is through, the new mega-Divineguma Department will be given Rs. 80 billion. This massive financial-injection will make Brother Basil’s fiefdom second only to Brother Gotabaya’s, in terms of budgetary allocations.
According to the Bill, all Divineguma employees will have to sign a secrecy-clause. Such a requirement, while normal in matters defence, is utterly abnormal in matters development. This clause is another step in infusing (anti-democratic) military ethos into the economy and turning development into the new ‘war’ (this transmutation will enable the regime to affix the ‘terrorist-label’ to anyone opposed to its development projects – be it urban poor, farmers, professionals or environmentalists). The secrecy-clause will also give Minister Rajapaksa a carte blanche over that gigantic stash of cash.
The Bill also mandates the creation of several layers of unelected organisations from the Grama Niladhari division upwards, another Rajapaksa army, ‘waiting for a sign’. In a familial state, all of this is as it should be.

Last week all elected provincial councils approved the Bill. The succumbing of the SLMC was an expected shock. By gifting the Eastern PC to the UPFA and approving the devolution-denuding Divineguma Bill, the SLMC opted for that kamikaze-path taken by the old left and the JVP; discredit, fraction and irrelevance is the invariable fate of any party which becomes the subaltern partner of the SLFP.

The only remaining obstacle to the Rajapaksa power-grab is the Northern PC. The democratic solution would be to have elections and let the elected-council decide on the Bill. But the Rajapaksas would know that the UPFA and its Tamil proxies will not be able to win the Northern PC without an unaffordably massive electoral highway-robbery. So the regime will argue that the Governor can decide. Since the Governor is a presidential-appointee, his decision is a foregone conclusion. Hopefully the matter will be referred to the Court. Hopefully Rajapaksa attempts to subjugate the Judiciary will fail.

If the Bill becomes law, it will open the anti-democratic floodgates. Other Rajapaksa-strengthening measures will follow, such as the Bill to subordinate the CMC and several other councils to a mammoth ‘Corporation’ under Gotabaya Rajapaksa; and the amendment to empower the regime to acquire any land by declaring it of religious/economic import.
And tyranny will become an everyday experience. The Rajapaksas (like Vellupillai Pirapaharan) are guilty of what the late great historian Eric Hobsbwam termed “a strategically blind maximalism” (Revolutionaries).

The Divineguma Bill tells the Tamils that the regime is hell-bent on obliterating devolution. When the same government which denies the very existence of an ethnic problem and scrapped the national anthem in Tamil denudes the provincial councils of their power, it will inadvertently accord the dead Vellupillai Pirapaharan a prophetic-mantle. The LTTE always maintained that in its absence, Colombo will render Tamils powerless. The Divineguma Bill will create a host of receptive ears for that deadly message.

The government, by bending the SLMC to its will over the Bill, has sent the wrong message to the Muslims as well. Schisms will follow the SLMC’s stark inability to defend its mandate; irrelevance may be its end. The question is: what sort of entity will replace the SLMC in the East? The SLMC, for all its lacunae, is a democratic party firmly committed to peaceful methods. Its successor might not be either, at least to the same degree. An ethno-religious enemy may benefit the Rajapaksas, because there is nothing like a ‘threat’ to justify those despotic-powers and tyrannical-practices needed to bolster familial rule. But another alienated minority is the last thing Sri Lanka needs.

Divineguma, India and China

During his recent visit to Delhi, President Rajapaksa was reminded again of the need for a political solution. The Divineguma Bill, if it is bulldozed through without being approved by an elected Northern PC, will render a reasonable political solution impossible and embarrass Delhi. A series of mutually offsetting balancing acts is what often passes for India’s policy towards Sri Lanka. Delhi wants to keep Colombo out of a Beijing-Islamabad axis and further Indian economic interests, without antagonising Tamil Nadu. In this context the interests of Lankan Tamils are often just asides and afterthoughts (for this de-prioritisation, the LTTE’s murderous conduct was considerably responsible). For instance, 8,000 Sampur residents were reportedly evicted (forcibly) to make way for an Indian-funded coal power plant and a Special Economic Zone. This rank injustice is a perfect example of cohabitation by Indian and Lankan establishments to further mutual economic interests, at the expense of thousands of hapless Tamils. While the elected representatives of those Tamils downplay the iniquity, for fear of antagonising Delhi!

This absence of a coherent Lankan policy has created loopholes for irresponsible extremist elements in Tamil Nadu to engage in juvenile and violent practices, such as the attack on innocent pilgrims to a Christian shrine. Delhi’s tolerance of Chennai’s Tamil extremism is the concomitant flipside of its tolerance of Rajapaksas’ Sinhala supremacism. The ‘Do nothing’ policy applies both ways; Delhi ignores or glosses over the Rajapaksa regime’s many broken promises even as it gives Tamil Nadu a semi carte blanche to perform anti-Colombo antics.

Its inability to save the 13th Amendment may propel an embarrassed Delhi into greater tolerance of Tamil Nadu extremism; plus ensuring that Sri Lanka’s UPR report is more unfavourable than favourable. In return the Rajapaksas will cling tighter to the Chinese. The sudden outbreak of virulent animosity between China and Japan over Diaoyu Islands is an indication that Beijing’s conflictual international relations extend beyond Washington and Delhi. Not the most sensible time for a small Asian nation to be identified as a Chinese-satellite.

The patron-client relationship with Beijing is essential for Rajapaksa power and survival. But for Sri Lanka it can open an unnecessary Pandora’s Box. Let us not forget that the Cold War was fought most destructively not in the US, the USSR or Europe but in client Third World states.

Trade and budget deficits feed a debt imbroglio-Dark clouds on the economic horizon

Sunday 07 October 2012

Lanka in general, and GoSL in particular, are not yet in the grip of a deep economic crisis, but statistics recently released for the first seven months of year 2012 denote that the country is moving inexorably in that direction. An actual crisis may be on our hands as early as the first quarter of 2013, unless - well that’s the way people end sentences, but I don’t see the “unless”; what can this government do that will not buckle its policy applecart? There are two fundamental problems, a foreign trade deficit that the government, despite some efforts, has been unable to surmount and a burgeoning budget deficit simply running wild. The manifestation of the two diseases is swelling sovereign debt which within a year or two may spell financial ruin. To repeat in different words, a mounting deficit on the foreign trade and services account, and rising budget deficits are the motor forces of a predicament whose manifest effect is forcing Lanka into a spiralling debt crisis. This is the picture that statistics for the first seven months of this year clearly paint. 
I will devote this piece to explaining the condition of the patient and only add a paragraph at the end dissecting causes, allocating blame and suggesting an alternative policy. 
Putting it in round numbers, which is the best we can do at this stage since the first seven months only provide a trend line for where we may be at the end of year 2012, import outgoings for this year will be about $21 billion and export earnings about $11 billion. With an aggressive policy of import discouragement the government may be able to reduce this mountain of a $10 billion deficit in the foreign trade account by a little, but not too much. Exports certainly cannot be grown by anything above trend by any policy formulations that can take effect within three months and in any case everyone is at the mercy of a contracting European market and a doggedly slack US economy. Hence it is reasonable to forecast that export earnings will only cover 50 to 60% of import expenditure and frankly I do not expect better in 2013. The Central Bank research unit’s forecasts in the accompanying figure are more pessimistic than mine. 
If we are out of pocket to the tune of $10 billion on foreign trade and services how to balance the books and cook what cannot be balanced - that is reconcile the balance of payments. Remittances, that is what the ladies (and a few gentlemen) who work mostly in the Middle East send home, may reach $5 billion or with luck a little more in 2012. Tourism may with difficulty bring in another $1 billion. The government has pipe dreams of attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) to the tune of $1.7 billion in 2012 but this is pie in the sky, a significant shortfall is certain. All together this covers say $7 billion of the shortfall in the trade account. Short-term cash flows into portfolio accounts (stock market and private currency inflows) and bank borrowing of foreign currencies can help a bit, but in the end GoSL will resort to massive foreign borrowings by issuing sovereigns. Grants and the ever faithful IMF will help. I would not be surprised if GoSL’s total foreign indebtedness increases by a further $2 billion in year 2012.

Spiralling budget deficit
Recently released statistics show that the budget deficit for the first half of 2012 was a frightening 61% or 38%, depending on how you do your sums. The deficit of Rs303 billion for the first six months is 61% of revenue (Rs497 billion) or 38% of expenditure (Rs800 billion) for the same period. There is a theory of increased revenue flows in the second half of a year due to enhanced tax collections, but I think this is exaggerated; most tax is from excise duties, indirect taxes and customs duties and there is no reason to expect a large spike in revenue during the rest of the year. 
It is reasonable to forecast that the government budget deficit for year 2012 will, in round numbers, be about Rs600 billion, while revenue and expenditure can be similarly pro-rated upwards to Rs1000 billion and Rs1600 billion, respectively. Obviously this is not formal forecasting but the numbers are good enough to convey a reliable flavour of the parlous state of economic health. How does this compare with last year? Quite bad; the end of year budget deficit for 2012 will be about 40% higher than the 2011 deficit; the half year deficits were Rs217 billion and Rs303 billion in the first six months of 2011 and 2012, respectively.

The debt mountain
Just as current account deficits have to be bridged by foreign borrowings, budget deficits have to be bridged by local, and when local sources run dry, by foreign borrowings. Last year the government sucked the EPF, ETF and NSB nearly dry, drawing 95% of its borrowing from these sources, not from private investors, so kiss your retirement goodbye if you are a young employee. Now it is turning increasingly to foreign sources to bridge the gap. The 2012 budget as approved by parliament specified that GoSL should borrow Rs780 billion from domestic and Rs330 billion from external sources, but it has now got its sums upside down; by the end of July it had tapped Rs380 billion from domestic and Rs650 billion from external sources. Come end December the government of Sri Lanka will exceed the Rs1100 billion borrowing limit set by parliament by a very large margin. By the end of July it had already reached 93% of that limit.
Is it surprising then that 40% of the funds allocated in the 2013 expenditure statement have been set aside for debt servicing? GoSL is now in the business of acquiring debt to service existing debt, which is a way of digging oneself ever deeper into a hole since one is not just taking new debt to pay off maturing debt; one is also assuming new debt to pay interest falling due on existing debt. GoSL’s total debt at the end of July stood at Rs6200 billion which is over 80% of my estimate of 2012 GDP. 
En passant observe that the Central Bank has step by step lowered its 2012 GDP growth forecast from 8% to 6.8% which I believe is still too high. To be realistic, keep a growth rate below 6.5% in the back of your mind. Though the Central Banks goes on about Rs7500 billion GDP (in devalued rupees) in 2012 compared to non-devalued Rs6550 in 2011, in dollar terms it will increase from $59 billion only to about $63 billion in 2012 over 2011.
From the beginning of the GoSL-IMF deal more than two years ago I have consistently maintained that stories of slashing budget deficit to 6.2% of GDP and lowering the total sovereign debt to 65% of GDP were fairy stories. I believe that palpable trends have now vindicated my doubts. The basic error in government economic policy is that it is chasing a financial miracle of Asia myth, relying on soft and volatile sectors like tourism, and putting numerous eggs in a grandiose white-elephant basket. This strategy has failed; the way out is to shift out of what my friend Sumanasiri Liyanage calls shallow development and turn to growing the real economy of industry, agriculture and real services, not the financial economy and soft sectors.

Ridiculous arguments Of SB Display The Bankruptcy Of Mahinda Regime

By Vickramabahu Karunaratne -October 6, 2012

Dr. Vickramabahu Karunaratne

 protest march was a success. Its success could be measured from the hate generated in the government camp. Minister SB said “we do not intend to look at FUTA as our foe. But for example, take the foreign countries that were visited lately by Nirmal Ranjith Dewasiri.  He is a second grade junior lecturer on History. In the recent past he toured Oslo and the US. Who provided the air tickets for his sojourns overseas? Even Kumar Rupasinghehas joined them now. He has publicly stated that the FUTA strike has the makings of an Arab Spring that will emerge in the future. But that guy is nothing but a knucklehead who is unable to understand that this is not Arabia but Sri Lanka and that there is no scope or room for such springs to take root in this part of the globe. No doubt there are scores of NGOs behind the FUTA strike. They have also been supported by the UNP, JVP and Sarath Fonseka as well. They have also cleverly got around the breakaway faction of the JVP, the Frontline Socialist Party (FSP) towards this endeavour. I must say that Nirmal Ranjith Dewasiri is nothing but a mentally sick and ill person. He has publicly ridiculed our esteemed King Dutugemunu and he has also publicly clamoured to get same-sex marriages legalized here as well. It has been alleged that in the past, he has even crowed from the rooftops to get Eelam for the Tamil people in the North-East.

Dewasiri has also allegedly gone to India with the EPRLF and obtained training in arms as well. He does not understand who the genuine university lecturers are. He continues to grope in the dark. The genuine university lecturers are now beginning to understand who the FUTA chief really is. That is one reason why the FUTA strike is now showing signs of coming apart at the seams.” All these words said, do not bring FUTA or Nirmal into disrepute; but goes a long way to reduce further the deteriorating image of the minister himself. I have never heard of a category of lecturers named – second grade junior lecturer. I joined the staff of Peradeniya Engineering faculty in 1966 as an assistant lecturer. Then I was promoted to lecturer grade in 1970 when I came back from Cambridge with a PhD. At the time I was interdicted in 1978, I was a senior lecturer. Next title awaiting me was assistant professor which was earlier referred to as Reader. These are the categories of university lecturers at the time. I never heard of this category that SB refers to. I am sure he is wrong and he needs to apologize to Nirmal who is in my estimate a profound academic in his field. Also I must add that History is not as marginal a subject as SB assumes. EH Carr, the great historian said in his famous lecture ‘what is history’-  “When we attempt to answer the question ‘What is history?’ our answer, consciously or unconsciously, reflects our own position in time, and forms part of our answer to the broader question what view we take of the society in which we live. I have no fear that my subject may, on closer inspection, seem trivial. I am afraid only that I may seem presumptuous to have broached a question so vast and so important.”

SB must remember what happened in Arabia, happened in Lanka way back in the history; when we marched to Kataragama with Mahinda and participated in many mass actions, which finally brought the down fall of the last UNP regime. It can happen again perhaps more virulently. When SB says that Frontline Socialist party was cleverly trapped into this protest, he displays his ignorance as to what is happening in higher education sector. In fact the government paper, Sunday Observer reported “The JVP did not have much say in the Inter University Student Federation, better known as Anthare, protest march that proceeded from Kandy to Colombo in support of the dons. It was the JVP’s second breakaway group – The Peratugaami (Progressive Front), which secured control of the student protest from Kandy. In contrast to the FUTA protest march, the Peratugaami student leaders holding power at Anthare were clever enough not to entertain any of the opportunist politicians in the Opposition in their protest march, not even the JVP leaders. Hence, JVP parliamentarian Anura Kumara Dissanayake was seen taking shelter at the FUTA protest to mark their political presence.” Here we can disagree with the opinion but facts are correct.

Nirmal never ridiculed historic figures; he only ridiculed mentally sick politicians who try to reenact stories of Mahawansa in the modern world. If Nirmal stands for same sex marriages he is with great intellectuals world over. If he has gone to the EPRLF for training, then he must have gone through the United Socialist Alliance headed by Chandrika. ; Because EPRLF was in a common front with us at that time. We all got training in Vanni jungles to save our selves from the DJV attacks. In fact the leader of the Independent Student Union, Daya Pathirana was killed by the DJV. So it was perfectly correct to learn to defend one self.  As far as I know Nirmal always stood for a United Lanka based on devolution of power. Any sensible person who expects a united Lanka should hold that view. There is no other way out.

Ridiculous arguments of SB display the bankruptcy of Mahinda regime. They have forgotten their past and what they were campaigning for at that time. The government media has made special attacks mentioning my name. I am happy to think that the NSSP intervention got such recognition. One repot said “Though Sajith even had his usual same team which whistles and cheers each time he comes on a political platform, Fonseka and Vickremabahu appeared to be isolated. On-the-spot reports said Vickremabahu, who tarnished Sri Lanka’s image at the UN Human Rights Council earlier this year, had only three supporters with him while Fonseka had only his security guards, that too provided by the Government as a former Army Commander.” It added “The FUTA protest march which was followed by a rally in Colombo was used as gathering points for anti-government elements and political parties while UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe, Karu Jayasuriya, Sajith Premadasa, Sarath Fonseka, JVP leader Somawansa Amarasinghe, Vijitha Herath and Vickremabahu Karunarathne were seen voicing for their political survival.” No, we were all voicing for the end of this chauvinist dictatorship!

SLMC Provincial councillors in the East renege orders from the top brass

By Kamani Hettiarachchi

The internal strife within the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) continues to escalate by the day, and one of the reasons that SLMC members are perturbed about is the party’s support extended to the government to adopt the Divineguma Bill in the Eastern Provincial Council, recently.
Among the reasons for the opposition to extending support to the government in this regard is that the proposed bill would seek to decrease the authority of the PC system, and therefore under no circumstances should the SLMC be a party to its adoption in the Eastern PC.
SLMC secretary Hasan Ali had informed all SLMC members of the Eastern PC not to throw their lot with the government with regard to this controversial bill till the party’s High Command takes a decision on it.
Hasan Ali had sought for a delay in casting their vote as the party’s High Command had not taken a decision in this connection.
However, the Eastern PC was convened last week by its chairperson Ariyawathi Gallappaththi. The new chief minister, Mohammed Abdul Najeeb, had tabled the bill. The debate on the bill had lasted through the whole day that the council was in session.  
When the vote on the Divineguma Bill was taken up, the UPFA, NFF and the SLMC had voted in favour of the bill while the UNP and the TNA had opposed it. The bill was passed by a majority of six votes. 

Directive violated
This had led to tension within the SLMC as the members had gone against party secretary Hasan Ali’s directive not to vote for the bill till the party’s High Command decides on the course of action the party should take. Since this directive was flouted, it has led to more divisions within the party, sources told LAKBIMAnEWS. 
At the time the vote was taken up, party leader, Rauff Hakeem was overseas, and due to this reason the general secretary had not been able to convene a meeting of the High Command. 
A group of radical SLMC members said that even when the secretary had clearly advised the SLMC Eastern PC members to desist from casting their votes, certain members had violated that order, which is now a concern to the party’s High Command.
At the recently concluded Eastern PC polls, the SLMC managed to win seven seats. The government sought the support of the SLMC before forming the new administration of the Eastern PC.
The government also held several discussions with SLMC leader Rauff Hakeem and at those discussions Hakeem had agreed to support the government without having sought the approval of the party’s High Command.
However, Hakeem stressed that he had decided to back the government consequent to certain conditions which both parties had come to an agreement with.
The SLMC leader continues to maintain that one such condition is for the government to give the Eastern PC chief minister’s post to the SLMC.
The government maintains a stoic silence on such issues. But radical members of the SLMC are of the view that Hakeem’s stance is the result of his own thinking and not one that has the approval of the High Command.

Headstrong decisions
Another charge directed at Hakeem is that he had agreed to two ministerial posts from the government, but this again had been his own decision and not one that the SLMC High   Command had taken. 
Most of those opposing Hakeem’s leadership continue to allege that the SLMC leader has taken some headstrong decisions which have not augured well for the party in the recent past.
They have also demanded that Hasan Ali convenes a meeting of    the party’s High Command immediately in order to discuss the situation before issues get out of hand. Sources also said that up to last week, the general secretary, though requested to do so by the majority of members, had not convened the said meeting.

Our Constitution Requires Commitment To Democratic And Not Military Governance

By Dr. Jayantha Dhanapala and Professor Savitri Goonesekere -October 6, 2012

Prof. Savitri Goonesekere and Dr. Jayantha Dhanapala

Some time ago the Friday forumheld a press conference on issues of public concern relating to what we considered a crisis in the education sector in Sri Lanka. We also referred to the trade union action by FUTA, and the urgency of resolving the dispute through a negotiated settlement based on consultation with all the relevant stake holders.

The FUTA trade union action has continued for almost 3 months and virtually paralysed the state universities. The failure of the traditional agencies and individuals within the university system such as the UGC and Vice Chancellors to facilitate a negotiated settlement between university staff unions and the government has led to the involvement of third parties – most recently Hon Minister Basil Rajapaksa. Students, parents and the public hoped that his involvement would ensure an early resolution of the outstanding issues. This has not happened. There seems to be apathy within government and an inclination to ignore the FUTA trade union action, in the belief that striking academic staff will eventually return to work. There is also a growing campaign of vilification of FUTA leaders in the state media, and an effort to create an impression among the public that this trade union action is an anti-government project by a radical and fringe group of academics in the university system.

We urge the government not to disregard what is clearly a strong campaign of trade union action, that has growing support from the academic community. Religious dignitaries have also expressed their concern and offered to negotiate a settlement. FUTA’s trade union action is not merely a campaign to increase staff salaries. It has raised critically important issues that must be addressed by the government in the interests of the higher education sector and the state university system. If the issues are not resolved, students and parents will be faced with a situation where the universities will be compelled to function without the best teachers and researchers, or a disgruntled and frustrated community of academic staff who cannot possibly contribute to strengthening the teaching and learning environment within these institutions. FUTA’s campaign on allocation of adequate resources and strengthening university autonomy and institutional structures and administrative procedures is both relevant and timely. These matters must be addressed if the state university system in this country is to survive and develop further.
The Friday forum in a spirit of constructive engagement would like to highlight what we consider practical measures that can be adopted so as to arrive at a consensus. Academics must be persuaded

through consensus building to resolve this dispute and recommence academic activities in the universities in the interest of their students and the public.

1. Resource Allocation                         Read More