World faces 'clear and present danger' from trade war esclation

FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping meet business leaders at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, November 9, 2017. REUTERS/Damir Sagolj/File Photo

William Schomberg-MAY 24, 2019 

LONDON (Reuters) - It was a stark warning about the risks ahead for the global economy, even by the forthright standards of the boss of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

“The world economy is in a dangerous place,” Angel Gurria said as the OECD announced its latest, lower forecasts for growth on May 21.

The source of his worry: the mounting trade tensions between the United States and China, which could hit the rest of the world much harder than they have to date.

“Let’s avoid complacency at all costs,” Gurria said. “Clearly the biggest threat is through the escalation of trade restriction measures, and this is happening as we speak. This clear and present danger could easily have knock-on effects.”

With much of the world economy still recovering from the after-effects of the global financial crisis a decade ago, U.S. President Donald Trump caused alarm when he raised tariffs on $200 billion worth of goods from China on May 10, prompting Beijing to say it would hit back with its own higher duties.

Trade tensions are the main reason that growth in the global economy will weaken to 3.2 percent this year, the slowest pace in three years and down from rates of about 5 percent before the financial crisis a decade ago, the OECD said.

MORE TARIFFS?

The world economy is expected to pick up slowly next year, but only if Washington and China drop their latest tariff moves.

The impact could be a lot more severe if Trump follows through on his latest threat to hit a further $300 billion of Chinese imports with tariffs and China retaliates again.

That kind of tariff escalation, plus the associated rise in uncertainty about a broadening of the trade war, could lop about 0.7 percent off the world economy by 2021-2022, the OECD said.

That would be equivalent to about $600 billion, or the loss of the economy of Argentina.

But the knock-on effects might not stop there.

A full-blown trade war, combined with an ensuing debt crisis in China and a shift away from exports to drive its economy, could cause a 2 percent hit to China’s economy, in turn knocking global growth further, the OECD said.

To be sure, that kind of worst-case scenario may well be averted, given the stakes for the United States and China.

Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are due to meet at a Group of 20 leaders summit in Japan on June 28-29.

Other G20 nations will be urging them to step back from the fight, chief among them Germany and Japan, two export power-houses which have much to lose from a long trade war.

For now, the effect of the trade tensions is being felt mostly among manufacturers.

By contrast, consumers, buoyed by low unemployment and weak inflation in many of the world’s rich economies, have shown little sign of alarm at the row between Washington and Beijing.

But over the longer term, a protracted trade war is likely to drag down the consumer economy too.

Slideshow (2 Images)

Global trade should normally grow at double the pace of the world economy but is expected to lag it in 2019, boding ill for investment by companies, the OECD said.

That investment would normally drive productivity growth, which is key for long-term prosperity and is urgently needed. Living standards for many workers in rich countries remain lower than before the financial crisis of 2008-09.

The frustration with lower living standards is widely seen as one of the main factors behind the rise of populist politics, including Trump’s presidential election victory in 2016.

“To put it bluntly, this cannot be the new normal,” said Laurence Boone, the OECD’s chief economist. “We cannot accept an economy that doesn’t raise people’s living standards.”

Writing by William Schomberg; Editing 

Mixed response to May resignation among European leaders

Matt Frei-24 May 2019Europe Editor and Presenter

There’s been a mixed response from European leaders to Theresa May’s impending departure.

There’s been a mixed response from European leaders to Theresa May’s impending departure, with Spain warning it’s “bad news” because it makes a hard Brexit more likely. While the European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker said he viewed her resignation “without personal joy”.

From slave in Jamaica to convict in Australia: uncovering one man's extraordinary journey

Author Sienna Brown’s debut novel poses thorny questions about Australia’s past as it reimagines the life of a 19th century slave and convict
The Good Hope Plantation House, once one of Jamaica’s largest slave-holding estates. Photograph: National Geographic Image Collection/Alamy

Elizabeth Flux-Fri 24 May 2019

Born a slave on Jamaican plantation in 1800, William Buchanan’s life was remarkable. After taking part in the 1831 rebellion that catalysed the end of slavery in his country of birth, Buchanan’s tragedy was that he never got to reap the benefits – instead he was imprisoned and sent as a convict to Australia, never to return.

Sienna Brown came across his story while working as a guide at Sydney’s Hyde Park Barracks, which in the early days of colonial New South Wales housed convicts. Though raised in Canada, Brown was born in Jamaica. “I thought, let me just see if any of my fellow countrymen were actually there,” she says. Research uncovered a handful – but it was Buchanan’s story that stood out.

Brown’s debut novel, Master of My Fate, gives a fictionalised look into Buchanan’s life, tapping into some uncomfortable truths from Australia’s history that are often overlooked: that much of colonial Australia was built by convict labour; that Australia has its own quiet history of abusing an unpaid workforce; that slavery isn’t that far in the past.

Buchanan took part in the 1831 Slave Rebellion led by Samuel Sharpe, and this was ultimately why he was sent to Australia as a convict.

Though this was a great catalysing event in his life, it isn’t the book’s focus. The bulk of the novel centres on his life on the plantation, showing us exactly what drove this man to risk his life for freedom. “The real intention of the book wasn’t to talk about the big global thing of slavery,” Brown says. “It was to talk about the human side.”

Brown points to an unintentional ignorance of history – both her own, prior to researching the novel, and that of the general public. “I don’t think people realise, if you’re walking along Macquarie Street for instance, all of those colonial buildings … they were all built by convict labour.”

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 Sienna Brown originally intended to write a more academic book, but fiction gave her the freedom to depict William’s life through his own eyes. Photograph: Supplied

It wasn’t just a handful of Jamaicans; Brown points out that large numbers of South Sea Islander people were kidnapped too, and brought to work on the sugar plantations in Queensland. Their descendants are still fighting for recognition.


“It’s always an assumption that [slavery is] an African American/North American thing,” she says. “But really, the British had slavery all within their colonies.”

The novel also touches on the treatment of Australia’s Indigenous peoples by the colonising forces. “I did want to acknowledge it,” Brown says. “I felt that was an important point to make even though I don’t go into it.”

Brown originally intended to write a more academic book, but fiction gave her the freedom to depict William’s life through his own eyes. Humanising William was important to her.

“When we think about slaves we have this picture of just these bodies of people that horrible things were imprinted on. Whereas they had a life outside of being enslaved,” Brown says. “That was really what I was trying to get across … that understanding that they’re human beings.”

Master of My Fate takes readers through the experience of living as a slave on Jamaica’s sugar plantations, detailing the rampant sexual assault, the beatings, the callous separation of families. This isn’t the most harrowing aspect of the book, however; that’s its undercurrent of us and them, of lack of empathy. “It was deep and dark,” Brown says of the research. “There were some days I was so depressed reading about what people did to each other.”

Power dynamics are a chief concern of the novel. Brown doesn’t simply focus on the bludgeon of slavery, but also teases out the implications of those more subtle shifts: the semi-sympathetic whites toying with the idea of abolition, but who are not quite ready to accept the blow to their wealth; the sailors who prioritise money over the health of the convicts; and the slaves who turn on one another – testifying untruths in court, whispering lies to the master.

Asked what all this says about human nature, Brown pauses. “It’s always the same no matter what the circumstances,” she says eventually.

“There would have been always a power struggle within those communities because obviously everyone’s wanting to survive … Everyone’s wanting to get as much power as they can to keep their family safe, which would have set up a terrible situation.”

Stripping someone of their humanity because of the colour of their skin, because they have a criminal record, because they were born into the wrong family – as much as Master of My Fate is a book about the past, its themes are disturbingly relevant. So, too, is fighting back. “I’m amazed [William] survived to be honest,” Brown says. “Psychologically, I can’t imagine. That’s what kept driving me through the story.”
• Master of My Fate by Sienna Brown is out now through Vintage

Thousands of Iraqis protest against potential war between US and Iran

Protesters chant 'no to war' and 'yes to Iraq' in central Baghdad and southern city of Basra

Supporters of Moqtada al-Sadr urge Iraq's government not to play active role in US-Iran tensions (Reuters)

By MEE and agencies-24 May 2019

Thousands of supporters of a Moqtada al-Sadr, a high-profile Iraqi Shia cleric, demanded the country's government stay out of any potential conflict between Iran and the United States.

Protesters chanted "no to war" and "yes to Iraq" in central Baghdad and the southern city of Basra, Reuters reported on Friday.

Iraqis worry about being caught up in an escalation of US-Iran tensions, which spiked earlier this month when President Donald Trump's administration said it would send additional forces to the Middle East to counter alleged Iranian threats, including from Iran-backed militias in Iraq.

A supporter of Iraqi cleric Moqtada al-Sadr shows the victory sign during protest calling for neutrality (Reuters)

"We've just recovered from Islamic State. Iraq must not be used as a base to try to harm any country. America doesn't want Iraq to be stable," protester Abu Ali Darraji told Reuters.

Sadr, whose political bloc won the most seats in Iraq's parliamentary election last year, is not considered a close ally of either the US or Iran.

The United States once described Sadr as the most dangerous man in Iraq, and designated his militia at the time, the Mehdi Army, a bigger threat to its forces than al-Qaeda during an insurgency against US troops after their 2003 invasion.

Sadr campaigned last year on a platform of Iraqi nationalism, opposed to both US and Iranian influence in the country.

Amid rising US-Iran tensions, a rocket was fired last week into Baghdad's fortified Green Zone, which houses government buildings and diplomatic missions, but caused no casualties.

A previously unknown armed group has claimed responsibility for the attack, claiming it was in retaliation for US President Donald Trump pardoning a soldier in the 2009 killing of an Iraqi detainee.

Thousands of supporters for Sadr gathered around Baghdad's Tahrir Square to urge Iraq to stay out of any war between Iran and US (Reuters)

In a statement released to a number of Iraqi news outlets, which was cited by MEE, a group calling itself the Operations of Martyr Ali Mansour said it had fired the Katyusha rocket into the fortified area housing the US embassy.

The US had initially suspected the rocket attack came from various Iran-backed armed groups in Iraq, including the Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) and Kataib Hezbollah, although they were quick to disavow responsibility and issue condemnations.

The attack came after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned Iraqi leaders that if they failed to keep in check powerful Iran-backed militias, Washington would respond with force.

US sources have told various American news outlets that they had seen militias positioning missiles on dhows, which are small wooden boats, within striking distance of US naval positions.

After pulling out of Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, Trump restored US sanctions on Iran last year and tightened them this month, ordering all countries to halt imports of Iranian oil or face sanctions themselves.

Iraq has said it will send delegations to Washington and Tehran to help calm tensions.

How are we doing in e-government?

Thursday, 23 May 2019

It is customary to assess some aspect of the performance of a country using a composite index such as the Ease of Doing Business Index or the Network Readiness Index. For government services, there is the e-Government Development Index (EGDI), issued every two years by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

Partly because of the complexity of the methodology, where the weights for different elements change with every iteration and because some governments have begun to game the system, the rankings fluctuate quite a bit as shown by Figure 1.

Sri Lanka has cause to be concerned, because after a very significant leap forward in 2014, our rankings have declined to a level that puts Sri Lanka just two places ahead of India. Bangladesh has been improving since 2014, advancing 33 positions in four years. However, Nepal has been improving even faster and was only two places behind Bangladesh in 2018.

Scores can increase, but ranks can go down. Rank can increase, but another country can still overtake.

Many countries such as those in the comparison set above are primarily focused on making government accessible to citizens on the web.

There seems to be simpler way of assessing the efficacy of these efforts. How many internet users in a country access government websites? Figure 2 shows that pattern matches for the most part, except for Pakistan. Of the 15-65 population in India and Sri Lanka who use the internet, 30-31% use it to access government information, the highest percentage among the group. The low performers on the EGDI have 10-13% of internet users accessing government information, except for the anomalous case of Pakistan where 26% of internet users claim to have accessed government information.

The LIRNEasia survey is of nationwide representative samples of persons between the ages of 15 and 65 years. Except for the Pakistan anomaly, the simple indicator and the complex one tell the same tale.

What is interesting from the policy perspective is why those who have the means, still do not use the Internet to access government information. The 30% who say they know how to access the government’s online services, but see no value in it and the 28% who know how, but are unsure about which specific website to go to are the most interesting. These are relatively easy problems to solve in the way government presents itself on the web.
Much remains to be done. Among those who use government e-services, only 14% do anything advanced such as submit a form or apply for something. Most users still appear to be in the first stage of e-gov, 47% obtaining information, downloading forms, etc.

Very clearly, Sri Lanka has much to do in the e-government space. Surveys such as those conducted by LIRNEasia provide actionable insights on what to do to increase the number of citizens benefiting from e-government services. This is a much more productive way to improve the e-Government Development Index, than appoint committees to game the process.

Unavailing The Truth Of India's Democracy

2019-05-23

Five members of parliament (MPs) grew over 1000% richer--among them the Congress’ Jyotiraditya Scindia--and 95 grew over 100% richer between the Lok Sabha elections of 2014 to 2019. The assets of the Congress’ Konda Vishweshwar Reddy of Telangana increased by Rs 336 crore over the five years, more than any of his Lok Sabha colleagues.

These were among the details revealed in a new analysis, which reported that the average assets of 335 MPs re-contesting elections in 2019 increased by Rs 6.9 crore over 2014, a rise of 41%. The best returns on investments over this period, a financial expert told IndiaSpend, came from equities: about 16%.

The five MPs whose wealth rose over 10 times were Sumedhanand Saraswati (Bharatiya Janata Party, 80 times), Abu Hasim Khan Chaudhary (Indian National Congress, 22 times), Sankar Prasad Datta (Communist Party of India-Marxist, 20 times), Shrikant Shinde (Shiv Sena, 18 times) and Jyotiraditya Scindia (Indian National Congress, 10 times), according to data from the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) and National Election Watch, both advocacies.

Source: Association for Democratic Reforms

Among the top 10 MPs with the highest increase in assets, four are from the Congress (of which three top the list), three from the ruling BJP and one each from the Nationalist Congress Party, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS).

The average assets of BJP MPs--170 of 335 MPs who contested again in 2019--grew 31% over the five years, from Rs 13 crore in 2014 to Rs 17 crore in 2019. The SAD’s two MPs grew richer by an average of Rs 115 crore, the Nationalist Congress Party’s four MPs grew richer, on average, by Rs 102 crore and 38 Congress MPs, on average, by Rs 60 crore, according to ADR data.

The ADR analysed self-sworn affidavits of 335 out of 338 MPs, three of whom were not analysed “due to unclear/incomplete affidavits from 2014”, said the report, which found increase in the assets of these 335 to be Rs 23.9 crore in 2019, from Rs 16.8 crore in 2014.

The implication of these data is payoffs or corruption, but Subhendu Harichandan, director at Anand Rathi Wealth Management, a wealth consultancy, cautioned against “painting everybody with the same brush”.

“The inflow may or may not be legitimate,” said Harichandan. “The inflow through legitimate means would be income from salary or business. One has to analyse individual balance sheets to understand their (MPs) asset growth.”

These financial details emerged because the election commission (EC) on February 26, 2019--after a Supreme Court judgement that month--made it mandatory for Lok Sabha candidates to report income-tax returns of the previous five years, offshore assets and permanent account number (PAN) details of self, spouse, dependents and Hindu Undivided Family (HUF).

Under the HUF, a family is treated as an individual and taxed at the same rates as an individual. This provision is usually used by business families and families with ancestral properties. Jain and Sikh families are also governed under this Act.

To contest a Lok Sabha election requires, according to unofficial estimates, between Rs 10 crore and Rs 30 crore, said Rahul Verma, fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, a think tank.

“The average politician in India is richer than the average person,” said Verma. Political parties tend to believe candidates with “dynastic or criminal pasts” win elections, and that belief is easily expressed.

“Most parties in India are centralised (around single families or single leaders), so there is no intra-party democracy,” said Verma.

The MP who grew Rs 366-crore richer

Konda Vishweshwar Reddy of the Congress--India’s main opposition party--from Chevella, Telangana, grew richer by Rs 366 crore since the 2014 general elections, the highest rise among 335 MPs who contested elections again in 2019.

Reddy’s assets increased 69% over the five years, from Rs 528 crore in 2014 to Rs 895 crore in 2019. His assets in 2014 included that of his spouse and three sons (Anindith, Vishwajit and Viraj) filed returns, while in 2019 included his spouse and his youngest son Viraj Madhav Reddy.

In 2014--when he represented the TRS, switching to the Congress in November 2018--Reddy reported movable assets, such as deposits, bonds and jewellery, valued at Rs 482 crore, rising 78% to Rs 858 crore in 2019.

Most of Reddy’s wealth (95% or Rs 820 crore in 2019) came from bonds, debentures and shares in companies. Reddy, his wife and son hold shares of Apollo Hospitals, valued at Rs 466 crore, accounting for 57% of his income from bonds, debentures and shares. Reddy’s wife, Sangita Reddy, is the joint managing director of Apollo Hospitals.

Reddy’s immovable assets--such as agricultural/non-agricultural land, commercial/residential buildings--decreased 18% over five years, from Rs 49 crore in 2014 to Rs 40 crore in 2019.

Konda Vishweshwar Reddy reported liabilities--including that of his wife--worth Rs 35 crore in 2019, up from Rs 7 crore in 2014.

“Most candidates come from a rich background, so they have investments in rent-seeking activities,” said Verma. “Many have assets like industries, factories and petrol pumps. You cannot do politics without economic resources.” And being in politics, as the table below indicates, tends to increase the value of those assets.

Source: Association for Democratic Reforms

After Reddy, the next two MPs who reported the greatest rise in assets were Jyotiraditya Scindia and D.K Suresh, both from the Congress.

Scindia contested from Guna, Madhya Pradesh, and his assets grew 1032% over the five years, rising from Rs 33 crore in 2014 to Rs 374 crore in 2019. Scindia’s wealth in 2014 was inclusive of his spouse and two dependents, while in 2019 it included his spouse, two dependents and the HUF.

Scindia is the descendant of a former Madhya Pradesh royal family, the grandson of the late Jivajirao Scindia, the last maharaja (king) of Gwalior and son of the late Madhavrao Scindia, a former Congress union minister.

Scinida reported movable assets valued at Rs 2 crore in 2014, which increased 2150% to Rs 45 crore in 2019. His immovable assets rose 933%, from Rs 30 crore in 2014 to Rs 328 crore in 2019.

Immovable assets accounted for 88% (Rs 328 crore of Rs 374 crore) of Scindia’s wealth in 2019. Agricultural land under HUF accounted for 55% of his immovable assets, followed by residential buildings (45%), including his own and HUF.

Scindia reported liabilities--including that of his wife--worth Rs 35 lakh in 2019, while in 2014 he reported liabilities (only self) worth Rs 14 lakh.

Shiromani Akali Dal MPs got rich

The SAD, a BJP ally, reported the highest average assets among MPs (Rs 115 crore) in 2019, followed by the NCP (Rs 102 crore), the Jannayak Janta Party (Rs 76 crore), the Congress (Rs 61 core and the BJD (Rs 55 crore).

The impact of the EC order to report finances is evident here as well, since SAD was not among the top 10 richest parties in 2014.

Source: Association for Democratic Reforms

The SAD has two members re-contesting in 2019, Harsimrat Kaur Badal with assets valued at Rs 217 crore, and Prem Singh with assets valued at Rs 12 crore.

Badal was elected from Punjab’s Bathinda constituency in 2014 and was made union minister for food processing industries under the National Democratic Alliance government. She is the wife of Sukhbir Singh Badal, former deputy chief minister of Punjab and president of SAD.

Badal’s declared assets in 2019 were her own, her husband’s, HUF and one dependent. In 2014, her assets were her own and her husband’s.

Immovable assets accounted for 54% (Rs 117 crore) of Badal’s declared assets in 2019. Agricultural land comprised 42% (Rs 49 crore) of immovable assets, of which Rs 45 crore was declared under HUF. Badal declared movable assets valued at Rs 100 crore, of which bonds, debentures and shares in companies accounted for Rs 60 crore.

In terms of percentage increase of assets over five years, Sumedhanand Saraswati of the BJP from Rajasthan Sikar, as we said, reported highest asset growth (8141%), from Rs 34,311 in 2014 to Rs 28.27 lakh in 2019.

Saraswati’s 2019 affidavit reveals declaration of a motor vehicle worth Rs 16 lakh, a major reason for the growth in his assets. He reported liabilities--loans from banks/financial institutions--worth Rs 27 lakh in 2019, while no liabilities were reported in 2014.

Saraswati was followed by Abu Hasem Khan Chowdhury (2244%) of the Congress, Sankar Prasad Datta (2016%) of the Communist Party of India (Marxist), Shrikant Eknath Shinde (1866%) of the Shiv Sena and, as we said, Jyotiraditya Scindia (1032%).

The assets of Chowdhury, an MP from Malda Dakshin constituency in West Bengal, increased from Rs 1 crore in 2014 to Rs 27 crore in 2019. The increase was mainly due to declaration of his wife’s offshore bank accounts, valued at Rs 9 crore of Rs 10 crore listed as movable assets. The 2019 affidavit also revealed a plot of land in Switzerland--under (residential buildings) immovable assets--worth Rs 15 crore in his wife’s name. Both these declarations were not available in the 2014 affidavit.

Chowdhury reported liabilities worth Rs 7 lakh in 2019, compared to Rs 6 lakh in 2014. Shinde reported liabilities worth Rs 12 lakh in 2019, while Datta reported no liabilities.

There are, however, caveats to analysing the growth evident in these declarations.

Why asset growth is hard to analyse

Any analysis of the asset growth of MPs over five years must consider two types of income, said Harichandan of Anand Rathi Wealth Management: from house property (rental income), salary, profits or gains from business or profession, capital gains and income from other sources (such as interest income, dividends and lotteries); and the “market impact of asset classes” and the years MPs have held them.

Although it is hard to predict “inflows”, over the last five years, equities, invested monthly, have delivered the best returns--about 16% return on Rs 50,000 invested per month over this period, said Harichandan. This means, for example, a Rs 30 lakh investment would become Rs 46 lakh.

Real-estate returns depend on the type of property and how many years it was held before being sold, said Harichandan, who spoke of a “multiplier effect” but not more than 18-19%, if the land was purchased between 15 and 20 years ago.

Returns on residential property over five years to 2019 have ranged from 4-5% to 13-14% and commercial property from 7-8% to 15-16%, said Harichand, depressed in general and worsening after demonetisation in November 2016, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi invalidated 86% of India’s currency, by value.

Opaque campaign-finance laws hinder optimal use of asset information.

“We do not know how campaign finance is generated and spent,” said the CPR’s Verma, explaining that while the EC asks candidates to reveal asset information, it is not known if this is analysed.

“I do not think just creating public awareness is going to solve the problem,” said Verma.

(Mallapur is a senior analyst and Salve is a programme manager with IndiaSpend,  where this piece originally published. Click here to read the original article)

Schoolchildren go on strike across world over climate crisis

Hundreds of thousands walk out of lessons in 110 countries demanding urgent action
Teenage protesters in Warsaw, Poland, hold up placards calling on politicians to address climate crisis. Photograph: Wojtek Radwański/AFP/Getty Images

Matthew Taylor-Fri 24 May 2019 

Hundreds of thousands of schoolchildren across the world have gone on strike in protest at the escalating climate crisis.

Students from 1,800 towns and cities in more than 110 countries stretching from India to Australia and the UK to South Africa, walked out of lessons on Friday, the organisers of the action said.

This is the latest school climate strike, inspired by teenager Greta Thunberg, who has become a global figurehead since protesting outside Sweden’s parliament in 2018. The young people are demanding politicians take urgent action to avoid catastrophic ecological breakdown.

In London, thousands gathered in the sunshine in Parliament Square chanting, “Where the fuck is the government”, and “This is what democracy looks like”, before staging a sit-down protest outside the department of education.

Ivy, 14, from Surrey, said: “I am here because I believe there is no point having an education if there is no future … I am so frustrated the only people who really care about this are the ones who can’t vote.”

Her friend, Arissa, added: “It is not us that did this – we are only 14 – but no one else is doing anything about it and it’s our future, so what choice do we have?”

There were similar demonstrations in cities across the UK with organisers reporting record numbers in several places.

In Glasgow, Nancy Baijonauth, 16, declared the protest the biggest so far in the city. “It’s really great.

 It felt like at the start people were hesitant, maybe because they felt nervous and that they couldn’t make a change, but now more people are joining in.”

In Cambridge about 2,000 school students demonstrated and there were big protests in cities from Leeds to Bristol, Manchester to Cardiff.

Globally, organisers said that hundreds of protests also took place in the US.

The school protests come amid growing evidence of the scale of the climate crisis. Last year, the UN’s leading scientists warned that there were just 12 years to limit climate catastrophe. Earlier this month, another UN reportwarned that the widespread collapse of ecosystems was putting humanity itself at risk. And just last week it emerged that the Antarctic ice is meltingmuch faster than previously feared and global atmospheric CO2 emissions reached a record level of 415ppm.

The school strike movement started last August whenThunberg, then 15, held her solo protest in Stockholm. Since then it has snowballed to be one of the most significant climate movements in history.

On Friday Thunberg, and leading youth strikers across the world, called for all adults to join the protests and stage a global general strike on 20 September.

Writing in the Guardian they said: “We’re asking adults to step up alongside us … today, so many of our parents are busy discussing whether our grades are good, or a new diet or the Game of Thrones finale – whilst the planet burns,” they write. “But to change everything, we need everyone. It is time for all of us to unleash mass resistance … if we [demand change] in numbers we have a chance.”

Before Friday’s strikes, organisers said the number of young people taking part would top the 1.4 million people who participated in the last global day of strikes in March.

Kenya’s Bid for LGBT Equality Hits a Wall

Judges declined to overturn colonial-era laws criminalizing same sex relationships. Human Rights Watch’s Neela Ghoshal says it’s a setback with regional repercussions.

A person wearing a rainbow flag leaves the Milimani High Court in Nairobi after Kenya’s high court, in a much-awaited verdict, refused to scrap laws criminalizing same-sex relationships, on May 24. TONY KARUMBA/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

BY JEFCOATE O'DONNELL

 | MAY 24, 2019, 3:17 PM

A three-year legal challenge from Kenya’s LGBT community that aimed to overturn sections of the country’s legal code that criminalize LGBT relationships has faltered. In Nairobi, a panel of judges determined on May 24 that the court would uphold the laws, which stem from a generic colonial-era legal template found across many Commonwealth countries that banned “carnal knowledge against nature.” Although prosecutions under the law are rare, they underwrite violence and discrimination, and they have been a key target for the country’s LGBT activists for years.

Last year, India made the historic move to dismantle its own set of colonial-era anti-LGBT laws. The Supreme Court cited their incompatibility with the protections wrapped up in the country’s constitution. The Kenyan decision then comes as a harsh reminder that LGBT Kenyans’ rights and full inclusion in society are still up for debate. And, as other African countries such as Botswana approach their own moments of reckoning over the legal status of LGBT people within their borders, this decision may have an outsized reach.

Foreign Policy spoke to Neela Ghoshal, a senior LGBT rights researcher at Human Rights Watch, about the fallout from the decision.

Foreign Policy: Tell me about what homophobia and transphobia look like in Kenya at the moment, and how this law functions in relation to those forces.

Neela Ghoshal: Although people are not regularly arrested under these laws, they contribute to a number of other abuses. We’ve found that when people are subjected to violence on the basis of their sexual orientation or gender identity, they’re extremely reluctant to report to the police, and almost nobody ever does. And in some cases when they have gone to the police they have been met with the same homophobia and transphobia from the police that they just saw from their assailants.

In some cases the police behavior has been very clearly based on criminalization of LGBT relationships being built into Kenyan law. The police have said, well, if you were “normal” you wouldn’t have been beaten up. If you want to address violence against LGBT people in Kenya, you have to tackle the roots of it, and one of those is that state-sponsored institutionalized discrimination is written into the penal code.

FP: How do you react to how the judges made the case to uphold these colonial-era laws?

NG: The judges put together an argument with absolutely no basis. I mean, it was astonishing. First of all, the conclusion that the law is not discriminatory because it doesn’t specifically name LGBT people—that just goes against long-standing legal principles and an understanding that laws can be discriminatory in the way that they are applied or even discriminatory in their intent without explicitly stating their intent.

FP: Yes, the court seemed to indicate that because the law covers all Kenyans that somehow there’s no question that the dignity of LGBT Kenyans is up for debate … as long as they’re not LGBT Kenyans. It felt like a circuitous loop. What do you make of the judge’s framing of their decision to uphold Sections 162 and 165?

NG: Part of the reason why this logic felt so twisted was that it seemed to be saying, “You’re not discriminated against, actually, and therefore we’re going to keep discriminating against you.” Or, “You have your constitutional rights, and therefore we’re going to deprive you of your constitutional rights.” I think in a sense the judges were trying to have it both ways. They certainly wanted to convey that they were not engaging in any sort of discriminatory politics in this decision. But it’s quite clear that that is the impact and the intent.

FP: Some of those who opposed overturning the ban appear to be advancing a narrative that almost celebrates autonomy, in other words: Kenyans won’t be influenced by the affirmation of LGBT people and the decriminalization of their relationships elsewhere. What do you make of that sentiment?

 

NG: There will always be people who claim that that LGBT identities are a foreign imposition. As a representative of an international NGO, I would say that we have been involved and engaged in this issue in support of LGBT Kenyans who are undertaking extremely courageous moves to ensure that their own human rights are upheld. The question at stake is whether Kenya’s constitutional rights are being upheld. And I think unfortunately in this ruling they weren’t.

FP: Tell me about how the Kenyan constitution dovetails with this ruling when it comes to privacy and dignity.

NG: Kenya’s constitution is excellent in that regard. It has very clear provisions on privacy and dignity. But the court claimed that those rights needed to be understood in the context of Article 45, which states that marriage is between people of the opposite sex. So essentially I interpret this as the court saying that if you are not a married heterosexual couple, your right to privacy is compromised. And that is a really astonishing claim. I mean, that essentially suggests that if you’re married and heterosexual, then the state doesn’t have any business in your bedroom, but if you are not married or not heterosexual, then the state can invade your privacy in any way that it likes.

FP: There are 33 countries in Africa that criminalize same-sex relationships. How do you expect this to ripple beyond Kenya’s borders?

NG: We are all afraid that this could have a negative impact. To be honest, I was optimistic about this ruling. I had expected that it would come out the other way, because I thought that the courts in Kenya were independent enough, and the judges were progressive minded enough, to take into consideration the real privacy and discrimination issues at stake here. And I had hoped that it would have a really positive effect around the region.

Angola just decriminalized same-sex conduct through a revision to its penal code that came from parliament early this year. So there was a sense that things were going in the right direction in Africa. And I think that definitely feels like a setback that will have regional repercussions.

When the India ruling happened last fall, and Section 377 was invalidated by the courts, that ruling was submitted into evidence in the Kenyan case. The judges essentially disregarded it. But regional precedent matters, and courts do look—you know, in the region—do look at international rulings.
So we have a case coming up in Botswana next month that is essentially the same as this case. It’s also a petition that has been filed by activists challenging the constitutionality of provisions that are almost identical language. And we had, of course, hoped that this would have a positive impact on the Botswana ruling. Now all we can hope is that it doesn’t have a negative impact.

FP: Kenya lost one of its most high-profile writers and LGBT voices on May 21, Binyavanga Wainaina, who died at the age of 48. What do you make of this double blow to the Kenyan LGBT community, and how should the world understand what he gave to this movement?

NG: I think people’s hearts have been broken in Kenya on multiple occasions this week. When Binyavanga died, you know a lot of people were out there saying, you know, we wish he was with us, particularly for this groundbreaking ruling that they had hoped would be positive. The reality is that Binyavanga recognized that when you embark on a struggle like this, it is about the long term. What Binyavanga did for the movement, which was to take the risk of coming out and to make clear to Kenyans that people they have embraced as part of them—as representatives of Kenya, as representative of Kenyan culture—can be LGBT people. That is not lost. And that is going to continue to contribute to change, which may not come as fast as we would like, but it will come.
This conversation has been condensed and edited for publication. 

Taiwan holds first gay marriages in historic day for Asia

 

Taiwan’s first gay couple Shane Lin (L) and Marc Yuan kiss outside the Household Registration Office in Shinyi district in Taipei on May 24,2019. Taiwan's first official same-sex weddings kicked off in a landmark moment for LGBT rights in Asia. Source: Sam YEH / AFP

@AsCorrespondent-24 May 2019

Taiwan’s first official same-sex weddings kicked off Friday in a landmark moment for LGBT rights in Asia as gay couples took the historic step of registering as married, the culmination of a three-decade fight for equality.

Shane Lin and Marc Yuan, a couple who fell in love at college, were the first to arrive at a government office in downtown Taipei.

Dressed in matching suits, they embraced and kissed in front of a huge media scrum before signing their marriage certificates.

They were followed by playwright LiYing Chien and her girlfriend, a cartoonist who goes by the pen name Cynical Chick.

SEE ALSO: Taiwan parliament to vote on Asia’s first gay marriage bill

Taiwan made history last week when it became the first place in Asia to legalise gay marriage, sparking jubilation among huge crowds of gay rights supporters on the streets of Taipei.

But the issue has also caused deep divisions on an island that remains staunchly conservative, especially outside of the cities and among older generations.

Some 300 same-sex couples are expected to register on Friday, according to local authorities, around 150 in the capital Taipei which boasts a thriving and vocal gay community.

The city hall will co-host an outdoor wedding party near the famous Taipei 101 skyscraper, with local and foreign dignitaries expected to attend.

‘Nervous’

Among those planning to tie the knot on Friday was social worker Huang Mei-yu, marrying her partner You Ya-ting.

“I am feeling nervous even though we already had a ceremony in 2012,” she told AFP, referring to a religious blessing conducted by a progressive Buddhist master.

“But I am also very happy as it’s faster than I had expected. I had thought I would have to wait 10 more years,” she added.

Taiwan’s gay couple Shane Lin (L) kisses Marc Yuan as another couple Cynical Chick and Li Ying-Chien look on after registering at the Household Registration Office in Shinyi District in Taipei on May 24, 2019. Source: Sam YEH / AFP

Legal recognition of their love, Huang said, was a crucial step and might help others accept the relationship.

“Now that same-sex marriage is legally recognised, I think my parents might finally feel that it’s real and stop trying to talk me into getting married (to a man),” she said.

For veteran gay rights activist Chi Chia-wei, Friday’s weddings are the culmination of a three-decade long fight trying to persuade successive governments to change the law.

It was Chi who eventually petitioned Taiwan’s Constitutional Court leading to a 2017 judgement that denying same-sex couples the right to marry was unconstitutional.

Facing an imminent court deadline, parliament finally passed a bill last Friday allowing same-sex couples to form “exclusive permanent unions” and another clause that would let them apply for a “marriage registration” with government agencies.

“I feel very happy that same-sex couples can finally register and be listed as each other’s spouse. I am honoured to witness Friday’s marriage registrations,” he told AFP.

Conservative pushback

In the last decade Taiwan has placed itself at the vanguard of gay rights in Asia but the issue has polarised society.

Conservative and religious groups mobilised after the court ruling and comfortably won a series of referendums last November in which voters comprehensively rejected defining marriage as anything other than a union between a man and a woman.

Conservative lawmakers put forward rival bills that offered something closer to limited same-sex unions but those measures failed as parliament comfortably passed the gay marriage law.

However, the new law still has restrictions not faced by heterosexual couples.

Same-sex couples can currently only adopt their partners’ biological children and can only wed foreigners from countries where gay marriage is also recognised.

Gay rights groups say they are willing to accept partial equality for now in the hopes of winning later legal battles over issues such as adoption, surrogacy and marrying foreigners.

Opponents have vowed to punish President Tsai Ing-wen and the lawmakers who supported the gay marriage law at January’s elections when Taiwanese will elect both a new president and a new parliament.

Amber Wong & Jerome Taylor © Agence France-Presse

Officials fighting U.S. measles outbreaks threaten to use rare air travel ban

Federal authorities keep a Do Not Board list to prevent those who pose a public health risk from getting on planes.

A flyer educating parents about measles is displayed at a pediatrics clinic in Greenbrae, Calif. (Eric Risberg/AP)

By Lena H. Sun-May 24 at 3:17 PM

Health officials in five states have warned people believed to be infected with measles and planning to travel that they could prevent them from getting on planes.

All eight individuals agreed to cancel their flights after learning the officials could ask the federal government to place them on a Do Not Board List managed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Martin Cetron, director of the agency’s Division of Global Migration and Quarantine, which tracks disease outbreaks.

“The deterrent effect is huge,” he said.

CDC officials said the agency had been contacted about the individuals by health officials in New York, California, Illinois, Oklahoma and Washington.

The government’s travel ban authority often gets little discussion “because it is a politically charged and politically visible request,” said Lawrence Gostin, a professor of global health policy at Georgetown University.

Though less restrictive than isolation or quarantine, the public health measure “is seen as a government using its power over the people and the states, which is kind of toxic in America right now,” said Gostin. “There is nothing unethical or wrong about it. It’s just plain common sense that if you have an actively infectious individual, they should not get on an airplane.”

Health officials emphasize that vaccination is the best and most effective way to protect against measles, and that the majority of people with infectious, communicable diseases, like measles, listen to doctors’ advice not to travel.

Rockland County executive Ed Day says the measles outbreak in Rockland County, N.Y., is ‘accelerating’ with 33 new cases reported in the last three weeks. (Reuters)

Officials in Rockland County, N.Y. and New York City, the epicenter of measles outbreaks since last fall, say they have advised several infected individuals against traveling.

Earlier this spring, Rockland health officials, who have had 238 measles cases since last October, consulted with CDC about placing two infectious individuals on the list to prevent them from flying to Israel for the Passover holiday, a county spokesman said.

“It served as an effective deterrent,” said spokesman John Lyon. “They did not travel."

In New York City, which has 523 cases in the nation’s largest outbreak, the health department advised two individuals “who were not immune to measles” and had been exposed to the virus, against flying during the disease’s 21-day incubation period.

“We have worked with passengers to minimize the inconvenience of travel disruptions in order to protect the health of New Yorkers and other travelers,” spokesman Patrick Gallahue said in statement this week. “People have been very cooperative.”

Both those governments have already taken more controversial and restrictive public health measures to stem the outbreaks. New York City closed schools that refused to keep unvaccinated children home and issued mandatory vaccination orders for people living in several Brooklyn neighborhoods with a potential $1,000 fine; Rockland County issued an emergency order banning anyone diagnosed with measles or exposed to a person with measles from gathering in public places for up to 21 days, or face a fine of $2,000 a day.

The United States is experiencing a record number of measles cases this year – 880 cases have been reported in 24 states, according to data updated Monday by the CDC. That number is the largest since 1994.

The outbreaks are occurring because vaccination coverage globally and domestically is faltering, fueled in part by an increasingly organized anti-vaccine movement. Global travel is playing an enormous role in spreading one of the most infectious pathogens from one location to the next.

The majority of U.S. measles cases originated from unvaccinated U.S. residents returning from places where large outbreaks are occurring, including Israel, Ukraine and the Philippines.

Rockland County Executive Ed Day said his county’s outbreak began with seven travelers coming from countries with big measles outbreaks. On Monday, he wrote President Trump asking the White House to issue an executive order, or ask Congress to pass a law, requiring visitors to present “certification of appropriate immunization.”

President Trump April 26 urged Americans to protect themselves with a measles vaccination as the number of cases hit the highest levels in the U.S. since 2000. (Reuters)

The current international health regulations require proof of routine immunization certificates only for yellow fever, Cetron said. "Changes to this policy would require a significant amount of international cooperation,” he added.

It would be “chaos” and unwieldy and probably a violation of international health regulations, Gostin said, for the United States to single out proof of measles vaccination.

The Do Not Board list was developed in 2007 after an Atlanta man with drug-resistant tuberculosis caused a health scare after he flew to Europe for his wedding and honeymoon after health officials unsuccessfully advised against overseas travel. Although no other passengers were believed to have been infected, the episode led to the creation of the list, which has been used primarily for people with tuberculosis. In 2014, when the United States had 667 measles cases, two people with measles were placed on the list and were kept from travel.

The risk of catching measles on a plane is relatively low since 80 to 85 percent of U.S. travelers are immunized, Cetron said. Nonetheless, the record number of measles cases this year has already led to 62 airplane-related investigations of contacts of people with measles who were on flights. (The CDC counts each leg of a flight as one investigation). That’s a big increase over previous years: in 2017, there were a total of 15 of these labor-intensive investigations, and in 2018, there were 81.

Placing someone on the list requires the CDC to determine that that person is infectious, or likely to be infectious with a serious communicable illness, and occurs only after all avenues have been exhausted, Cetron said. In addition, health officials work with airlines to eliminate change fees.

“If all those things are not enough to convince somebody, then the last thing we do is contact the Department of Homeland Security, give them the appropriate identifying information, and someone gets put on the list,” Cetron said. "And if they were to go to the airport, they’re not issued a boarding card.”

Some health departments have taken steps to try to secure refunds for those who voluntarily agreed to change their plans.

In suburban Detroit, which had 41 cases spread by one man who traveled there from Brooklyn, for instance, health department officials wrote letters to airlines asking that individuals who followed their advice get their money back, said Russell Faust, medical director of Oakland County, Mich.’s health department.

Correction: An earlier version of this story listed Texas as one of the states that consulted with the CDC about the list. The CDC provided that information in error. It was Oklahoma, not Texas, that consulted with CDC.