Peace for the World

Peace for the World
First democratic leader of Justice the Godfather of the Sri Lankan Tamil Struggle: Honourable Samuel James Veluppillai Chelvanayakam

Wednesday, January 3, 2018

Budgets and inflation Unseen realities


By Ananda Ariyarathne-2018-01-04


"Economic stability and national prosperity are the two sides of the same coin. While a 'coin' which means the 'monetary unit' recognizes the value in terms of proportion it becomes a very realistic measurement in gauging the level of wealth realistically experienced. The variations shall indicate the level of progress made and the most simplified method is to assess just what a 'Monetary Unit' could provide to citizens, when it comes to fundamental requirements of the people."

As a declaration of taxation

As it is, a Budget is ideally the official declaration of the 'Arrangements to be Effective' in collecting the share of Revenue. It is actually the plan for the 'Exchange of value' between 'Services Rendered' by the Government and 'Received by the People'.
Although this is the ideal picture, now it is proved beyond doubt, that the 'values' exchanged are not balanced at all.

Taxation is unavoidable, as Governments have to maintain and develop ways and means of serving the people better. In a simple economic society it could have been possible to strike a balance but now in the face of sophistication, that inter-relationship between taxation and well-being of the people have drawn apart. They are now on two parallel paths and has now become more a justification of the revenue needed by the Government than what the people need from the government.

State Budgets have become the annual feature where 'Sources and volumes' are decided for taxation. In Sri Lanka, traces of real budgeting can be tracked down to the Dutch Period where resources were exploited in a more organized manner. The British took it further with the expansion of Commercial Agriculture. By the time this land evolved into an Independent State, the budgetary practices of the British System had got established and till now we follow the same system and principles.

Although an affluent power like the British Empire could afford certain measures then, however, post war developments changed the economic scene of the whole world, affecting even the British economy. For a country such as ours, with the newly gained Independence, trends changed. It is quite evident by now, that our governments did not understand the nature of our needs as well as the ways and means to approach the inevitable goals, regarding the futuristic approach that was necessary. Therefore, it became more or less a continuation of the taxation that was already in use. But, the fact was that as an independent country, solutions were not found outside the country. Naturally, the need for expanded taxation became quite unavoidable.

That has led to the automatic adherence to Budgetary Practices inherited from the British and matters related to real economic development had been taken for granted. The export trade was completely controlled by British Banks. It became clear that the country started inching towards more hardship with expanding needs on one hand and on the other, the constraints in finding solutions.

As a 'New Nation' that was aspiring for internal development naturally had an increasing trend to have positive developments in foreign exchange earnings. But the 'Sterling Companies' had complete control over export earnings. That explains why the Sri Lankan government had to resort to more drastic measure like the nationalization of the Plantation Industry, that way opening the avenues for direct involvement of Foreign Exchange Control. This can be seen relevant to all the other 'economic activity centres' where the conservation of foreign exchange became a priority. Nationalization of Sea Ports and the Petroleum Trade also had to be brought under control. At the same time, it became unavoidable that resources had to be identified and exploited locally.

Evolution of taxation

The Global evolution of taxation and Principles involved shows us how we have inherited the systems and practices we have now.

No nation can survive without taxation and it evolved from the need to sustain rulers in ancient times. The wealth of a nation belonged to the ruler and the people made use of the resources for their survival. Naturally, the 'rulers', who did not do any production-oriented activities, were sustained by the people and they provided protection for the people from invaders who tried to grab the wealth of the regions. In the process, rulers became an unavoidable cost and the system that was directly linked to the rulers became the 'Administration' which evolved to be known as the 'Government'. Other than the comforts enjoyed by rulers , the linked sectors which helped rulers also had to be sustained. That meant cost and it had to be collected from somewhere.

That was how 'taxation' came into being.

Subsequently, the responsibility of looking after the people fell on the government and the taxation was applied through the regions that came into the scene through Regional Rulers who represented the main ruler and the government. Regional rulers found ways to develop their regions so that the people who started growing in numbers also could be sustained. Tax became the share of wealth of citizens as their share towards 'governance'.

Over the years, history saw forms of governments coming into existence. Tribes grew into more complex societies and leaders consented to have systems of leadership, changing from tribal chiefs, war lords, Kings and Emperors to end in democratic forms of governance.

With the unavoidable development of societies the forms of governments varied but taxation was there to stay. It was in kind initially, as taxes were collected as grain, animal products, animals and utensils and equipment made up of material found and developed from natural resources. Handling taxes in material forms faded away with the introduction of 'Money'. That in turn simplified the process. Both Goods and Services could be assessed using Monetary Units.

In the meantime, regional development resulted in Inter-Regional Exchanges which came to be known as 'Trading'. It was such wealth that was exchanged. All those became sources of revenue for governments. From all the gains, a certain share had to be paid to the governments and in return those governments provided facilities to citizens. It has now become a natural arrangement between the people and governance to have a 'symbiotic' system.

Sri Lankan budgets and taxation

In order not to complicate and confuse matters with high sounding economic terms supported by statistics, let us settle for simple logic and experiences gone through and therefore simpler to understand.

One of the major aspects that had to be accommodated in Annual Budgeting immediately after Independence was the welfare measures which continued from World War II, when the country was on a war-footing, the strong co-operative system that was in place ensured the consumer, protection to a great extent. Essentials such as rice and other dry rations reached consumers at very reasonable rates and the low taxation on imported foodstuff allowed consumer markets to be fairly well stuffed and they in turn conveniently offered these items at comfortable prices. However, with the population increase, the burden on the Government remained fairly light as it was only subsidies that had to be provided. It was also a limited burden as local rice production was on the increase with the newly activated irrigation rehabilitation projects which had begun to pay back.

Open economy and inflation

With the opening of the economy, the pricing mechanism escaped from the grip of the Government, thus exposing consumers to the results generated by freely operating profit-oriented enterprises and the impact is further complicated by privatization of state sector industries and service providers.

This has resulted in a self-destructive process that results in escalation of prices. Let us take rice cultivation as an example. The Guaranteed Prices offered to encourage rice farmers results in a higher market prices for rice and the benefit goes only to a maximum of 30% of the population that is directly linked. How about the 70 % of the population consisting of people who are compelled to pay more for their rice? Then, the Government 'Imports' rice from other countries committing valuable foreign exchange, just to bring down Market Prices. Now summarize the process, Cost in Guaranteed Prices + Cost of Imported Rice nullifies the effect of the Guaranteed Price. The most significant aspect is the recognition of the price of rice. Logically, the Government spending on the Guaranteed Price of rice ends up rewarding the rice farmer in another country.

Can we call such absurd strategies as development oriented? Such measures actually would cause escalation of prices locally. The Funding for such assistance by the Government is based on state revenue which in turn depends on taxation which shall be direct or indirect.

The whole confusion is created by the Government by misinterpreting the principles of Free Economic Practices. Where does the Government encourage production positively and then collect taxes. On the contrary, productivity and production are retarded by taxation, although it is said that the Free Economic Activities are promoted and protected.

The competitive approach has destroyed the rural economy. While open market policies have caused the annihilation of small scale operators, it is a negative development in place of a positive one.

Chain reaction

When the Budget introduces new rates, they affect the cost directly and prices also accordingly. The fact that the Cost of Living has been increasing is a fact and proof of that can be found by listing all the items that come in as unavoidable expenses. Annual increases are obvious and the only possible chance we had, had been the Annual Budgets which could have been development oriented starting at micro level, so that cost efficiency is achieved there. That would initiate a trend to keep costs low. If budgetary measures are more specific and objective-oriented than providing blanket scenarios, avenues for inflation can be minimized.

About the writer

A graduate from the University of Ceylon, Peradeniya and read for the MBA at PIM, is a Management Consultant, specialized in 'sick unit rehabilitation' has four books to his credit and three more are ready for publication, serves as a visiting lecturer and examiner at SLIDA.

2018 – A year for reinventing Sri Lanka

 Thursday, 4 January 2018

logoThe start of a new year always offer an opportunity for some fresh thinking and among most an opportunity to have a new resolution. The progress of course will depend on one’s commitment and only time will tell.

One thing is sure, we have had many a year passing through and millions must have done this process at the start but if one is to think that only wars, lies, deceptions signify the past year, we know that we have not stood by our principles. It is really refreshing to see the Pope when he addresses and I am referring to his comment over the assessment of 2017.

We have also witnessed that when we were having deficiencies – be it in fertiliser, tea, or petrol – the highest office had to intervene via appeals to similar offices elsewhere for help! At present we are also going nuts over coconut too. Not a sign of confidence that one can have on our systems – it is not only due to politics and cannot be singularly blamed for all ills. We may blame politics for a lot of things but I feel and understand now that many a problem are a product of our own inefficiencies and as such is not a fair excuse for all and sundry.

Innovative India

Why reinvent Sri Lanka? Here I take the story of our neighbouring India. Today you read in the news that the Indian economy in 2018 is poised to take the fifth place in global economies scale. This is India coming from way behind and perhaps many would not have ever placed a bet on this happening. Today the reality is what was one day unthinkable is now a possibility.

How did this happen? It reminds me of a presentation titled ‘Dreaming India’ given by one personality whom I admire very much. In fact reading his book on ‘Reinventing India’ gave me the idea for the title for today’s column.

Dr. Raghunath Mashelkar once asked the question, “Can a country, which has so many deprived, so many people below the poverty line so many illiterates, really do it?” This was on 3 January 2000 when he addressed the 86th Indian Science Congress which was celebrating the new millennium.

In year 2000 India has had many successes but was still looked at as a third world country and no more. What a change a decade brought to India since 24 July 1991. Dr. Mashelkar identifies this day as the day India received its second freedom when Dr. Manmohan Singh announced the Industrial Policy (please note – the Industrial Policy!) that liberalised India. It is considered one of the most disruptive public policy innovations.

Yes, India did many things before this date such as Param 8000 (when the super computer was denied to India, they built their own,) White and Green revolutions had been ushered in ensuring that no more famine will hit India, and also becoming the world’s largest milk producer. Today India is building advanced satellites to nuclear reactors with ease.

Yes, someone can say with Chandrayan 1 – the Indian moon mission – finding evidence of water on the moon while many millions may be having no decent access to water is an issue. Yes, it is easy to be critical in this manner though I think the failure there lies in the failure in connecting with understanding some dots rather than stopping efforts such as Chandrayan. India is showing its innovative prowess as well as resilience. As per Dr. Mashelkar, the ‘I’ in India must stand for Innovation!

Reinvent Sri Lanka by reinventing ourselves

With 2018 dawning on us we may wish each other happy new year and in Government offices we will spend the first day taking an oath to serve and serve well. I am mindful that this year is going to have unusually a larger number of long weekends (six, with 19 holidays falling within the week) and I shudder to think of the impact by this calendar on our efficiencies and productivities. I think the reader is enlightened enough to know why.

This may be a bountiful year with holidays for the nation and its fun-loving citizens but we must not forget the many issues that we are having can only be resolved with focus and hard commitment. We may lift the phone and call for help and this is becoming too frequent for our own comfort but having done very little to build up the resilience that perhaps is the only recourse.  We have also been told about the significant debt burden that is going to come from this year and in dollar terms too. Hence this indeed has to be the year where we have to reinvent Sri Lanka by reinventing ourselves as challenges are a plenty. We are oblivious to many an issue that the climate front may have in store for us which really can add insult to injury.

When Dr. Mashelkar spoke, he was asking, “Can India go on just by working on import substitution and me-too products?” His pointed question was: “Are we going to be busy with reverse engineering and copy all our lives?” His answer was a clear “NO!” He was not advising to develop an India that followed but one which leads. Within two decades India is showing that it can.

One of his transformations, which had been captured in the 2003 publication ‘Scientific Edge’ by Jayant Narlika was the transformation of Indian Research organisation to an enterprise that was innovating and patent driven. Of course CSIR in India through their labs had demonstrated developments in ensuring programs such as 70% India’s agrochemicals to be locally produced with CSIR technologies but this has been purely driven through policies which had been inward-looking. The transformation was to ensure the developments are world class and having developments that one sells globally.

Mashelkar speaks of his experience when one wants a laboratory piece of equipment for research, the need to have a certificate from the DG of Technical Development known as the ‘not-manufactured in India certificate’.

One aspect however important to note is before and after July 1991 India has had an interest in manufacturing in India. What has changed had been the mindset for competitiveness with the global community. He indicated while the Indian minds were in the 21st century, mindsets were rooted in the past and this difference is dragging the nation down.

Sri Lankan mindset

It must be mentioned patents or not, manufacturing in Sri Lanka has never really been a priority among policymakers. We are always too quick to display realms of analysis indicating why we should not be doing anything in this country connected to manufacturing. Service mantra had been winning the hearts and minds of those who take and make decisions.

If we are not interested in some original thinking by ourselves, Reinventing India offers many an interesting idea to latch onto. They are the words of a small boy who survived smallpox (yes smallpox!), struggled to have two meals a day, went barefoot to school until he was 12 years old and studied under streetlights in Pune who went onto become one of India’s most distinguished scientists, a visionary and a passionate leader.

He, having studied for the most time in India, also went on to be an engineer who was given membership in the Royal Society (FRS) – a rare feat for anyone and then also to be the first President from outside UK in the Institution of Chemical Engineers UK. He fought to defeat the US in exploiting traditional knowledge of India and laid the foundation to develop the Indian Traditional Knowledge Digital Laboratory as a compulsory search tool when patents are considered.

Sri Lanka, instead of learning from such approaches, traditionally laments over international conspiracies and eternally wishes to play the role of an aggrieved innocent party. Think of kothala himbutu and you may understand what I mean.

One feature of him is his optimism and something we really have to inculcate for us to overcome the obstacles and all the negativism that surfaces whenever an idea is mooted. He indicated India is a rich country with poor people and urged people to discover themselves of the treasures within. Our issue is we are poor country with very rich people and that is a different equation to energise.

As we step into 2018, India may be getting ready to don a different mantle while we are engulfed with our preconceived notions and limited thoughts and forever worried with cash flow with little or no attention to ideas as an asset to leverage.

Understand and execute

There is no question whatsoever that innovation today is recognised as a major source of competitiveness and economic growth for all countries. At times we use the words and concepts without the true understanding too. That is a pitfall we really have to avoid. Understand and execute we must.

Mashelkar championed inclusive innovation – more from less to more – and that has so much relevance in the present world where we have set ourselves the goals of sustainable development by 2030.

Let us move away from the traditional mindsets that we have and embrace the changes that are necessary at least in this year of 2018 – full of holidays and full of problems with some known and many unknowns. I cannot see rhetoric winning the year and only dedicated work will matter.

Is humanity eating itself into an early grave?

Is humanity eating itself into an early grave?
Tomasz Pierscionek is a doctor specialising in psychiatry. He was previously on the board of the charity Medact, is editor of the London Progressive Journal and has appeared as a guest on RT’s Sputnik and Al-Mayadeen’s Kalima Horra.

Tomasz PierscionekPublished time: 29 Dec, 2017 16:37

Despite advancements in science and medicine working to prolong our lives, our lifestyles offset their effects. In the past infectious diseases caused millions of premature deaths, now an obesity pandemic threatens to do the same.

The significant increase in life expectancy seen around the globe during the past century is primarily attributed to a reduction in child mortality, improved sanitation, the manufacture of new medicines and vaccines, and numerous other advancements in science and healthcare. Life spans for residents of the UK and USA increased from around 50 to 80 years during this time. This heartening news does, however, mask differences in life expectancy between poor and affluent citizens of those countries. The wealthiest communities in the UK typically live seven years longer than their poorer counterparts and benefit from an additional 17 years of good health during their lifetimes. Research reveals a 20-year difference in life expectancy exists between individual counties in the USA.

Moreover, the aforementioned steady rise in US citizens’ overall longevity has now stalled. The US-based public health body the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently reported the overall life expectancy (with both sexes included) fell by 0.1 years between 2014 and 2015 to 78.8 years. Life expectancy among Americans aged 65 remained static during this time, and a negligible change in the infant mortality rate was deemed insignificant, suggesting that the increasing number of deaths which produced the statistic did not occur at either extreme of life. The CDC also noted a small but concurrent increase in eight of the top ten causes of death among Americans, including heart disease, stroke, and diabetes.

Although a single year hardly makes a trend, new figures released earlier this month revealed the life expectancy of the US population fell again in 2016 to 78.6 years: the first time a fall has occurred two years in a row since the early 1960s. A rise in the number of, mostly unintentional, deaths from opioid overdoses (including both heroin and pharmaceutical drugs) is believed to be partly responsible for this further decrease.

The UK population’s gradual increase in life expectancy has also leveled off in the several years since a Conservative government first implemented austerity measures in the wake of the global financial crisis. Although government policies and cutbacks certainly impact upon a population’s health, other factors such as sedentary lifestyles, decreased physical activity and unhealthy diets cannot be ignored.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), almost two billion people over the age of 18 (roughly 40 percent of the world’s adult population) are overweight, and 650 million of these are classed as obese. The prevalence of global obesity has tripled in the past 40 years. Whereas only four percent of children and adolescents globally were overweight or obese in 1975, the figure now stands at 18 percent. Europe and North America are not the only ones affected: the WHO comments that, except some parts of Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, there are now more obese than underweight people in all regions of the world. Obesity rates have increased by at least twofold in 73 countries since 1980.

The global fast food market, valued at $477.1 billion in 2013, is set to be worth $617.6 billion by 2019. As markets in the developed world become saturated, junk food manufacturers are exporting their products to poorer countries providing untapped business opportunities.
In 2014 the president of Coca-Cola International Ahmet Bozer advised investors that “half the world’s population has not had a Coke in the last 30 days … There’s 600 million teenagers who have not had a Coke in the last week. So the opportunity for that is huge.”

Obesity, unhealthy diets and physical inactivity are key risk factors for the development of cardiovascular diseases(CVDs). CVDs include heart disease and stroke and are the leading cause of death worldwide; more than three-quarters of these deaths now occur in low and middle-income countries.

While large swathes of humanity are literally eating themselves into an early grave, innumerable diets, exercise regimes, and food supplements abound promising rapid weight loss and other health benefits. Akin to the worldwide fast food market, the global “weight management market,” which benefits from the existence of the former, is expected to be worth $442.3 billion by 2025. One of the most common Google searches is “how to lose weight?”

Dieticians, nutritionists, and psychologists have warned against the unsustainability of ‘crash diets’ promising rapid weight loss and the negative effects these diets can have on a person’s mental well-being.

Low carbohydrate diets initially precipitate rapid weight loss. The human body converts carbohydrates to glycogen, which is then stored in the liver and muscle tissue. Water binds to glycogen in a ratio of roughly three grams water to one gram glycogen. Eliminating carbohydrates from one’s diet results in the loss of both the body’s glycogen stores and the water to which it is bound. The initial feelings of satisfaction may turn to despair when the body’s glycogen stores are gone, and the fast pace of weight loss slows or even reverses.

A new trend known as biohacking, which can involve fasting for days at a time and using nootropics’ or ‘smart drugs’ to ‘hack’ or improve the way the body and mind function, is being popularized by Silicon Valley executives who claim it improves their productivity and brain power. Some leading nutritionists have expressed doubts about the long-term benefits of fasting while the jury is still out when it comes to nootropics. In the US nootropics are sold as nutritional supplements, as opposed to drugs, and thus do not fall under the auspices of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulatory agency. Dr. Richard Isaacson, neurologist and Director of the Alzheimer’s Prevention Clinic at Weill Cornell Medical College in New York, cautions against the lack of controlled trials and thorough scientific research on the safety of nootropics. He comments that “You may have several ingredients on the label and there may be one of the many ingredients on there that may interact with your blood pressure medicines or it may interact with something else”, adding that “while each drug by itself may be generally safe, it’s hard to generalize; they may interact with other things …"

A key component to losing weight and staying healthy is to reduce calorie intake or to put it simply: eat less and eat healthily. However, calorie consumption must be reduced at a gradual and steady rate to be both safe and effective. The British Dietetic Association (BDA) advises a person trying to lose weight sets themselves “realistic goals” and suggests “a weight loss of between 0.5 to two pounds (lb) a week is a safe and realistic target” and ought to be combined with a healthy eating plan and regular physical activity. Excess weight does not materialize overnight and likewise cannot be lost as rapidly. If you are in need of a New Year’s Resolution, consider giving less money to both the junk food and weight loss industries and becoming a little healthier and wealthier in return.

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT.

Palestinians say Jerusalem 'not for sale' after Trump aid threat

In Tuesday night tweets, Trump threatened to halt funding to Palestinians, saying they were 'no longer willing to talk peace'

Two people watch the sun setting on the Old City of Jerusalem (AFP)

Wednesday 3 January 2018
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas's office said on Wednesday that Jerusalem is "not for sale" after US President Donald Trump threatened to cut annual aid of more than $300m to force them to the negotiating table.
"Jerusalem is the eternal capital of the state of Palestine and it is not for sale for gold or billions," Abbas spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeina told AFP, referring to Trump's recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital.
UNRWA spokesperson Chris Gunness said on Wednesday that his organisation "has not been informed by the United States administration of any changes in US funding to the agency".
The 6 December declaration has sparked protests over recent weeks. Fourteen Palestinians have been killed including a 17-year-old in a village north of Ramallah on Wednesday.
Translation: The martyr Musab al-Tamimi, minutes before he was shot by the occupation forces in Deir Nizam village. 
Musab Firas al-Tamimi was shot dead during clashes with the Israeli army in Deir Nizam, the Palestinian health ministry said. Ma'an News reported that three other Palestinian youths were injured with rubber-coated steel bullets during the clashes.
An Israeli army spokeswoman said soldiers spotted someone with a gun among those rioting and is investigating the incident.
Quds News Network published pictures of al-Tamimi sitting on a rock in an open field a few meters from the Israeli soldiers, only minutes before he was shot.
On Tuesday night, Trump tweeted that the US has taken Jerusalem "off the table" and said Palestinians were "no longer willing to talk peace":
"[Trump] doesn't want to give any additional funding until the Palestinians agree to come back to the negotiation table, and what we saw with the resolution was not helpful to the situation," Haley said at the United Nations.
"We're trying to move for a peace process, but if that doesn't happen, the president is not going to continue to fund that situation," she added.
On Monday, the Israeli Knesset passed a bill which will make it more difficult for the Israeli government to hand over parts of Jerusalem to Palestinians under any future peace deal. 
The bill also paves the way for Palestinian neighbourhoods in East Jerusalem to be hived off into a separate local council, reducing the city’s Palestinian population by a third.
Abbas condemned the bill, calling is "a brutal war on the Palestinian people adn their land and holy sites". 

Policy reversal

Trump abruptly reversed decades of US policy in December when he recognised Jerusalem as Israel's capital, generating outrage from Palestinians and the Arab world and concern among Washington's Western allies.
He also plans to move the US embassy to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv.
Israeli policemen detain a demonstrator during a protest last month against the US decision to recognise Jerusalem Israel's capital (AFP)
The move caused international furore and led to a UN Security Council draft resolution that condemned the move, which was vetoed by Haley.
In late December, Trump threatened to cut off financial aid to countries that voted in favour of the UN resolution calling for the United States to withdraw its decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel's capital.
READ MORE►
"They take hundreds of millions of dollars and even billions of dollars, and then they vote against us. Well, we're watching those votes. Let them vote against us. We'll save a lot. We don't care," Trump told reporters at the White House.
Haley, in a letter to dozens of UN states last month, warned that Trump had asked her to "report back on those countries who voted against us".
US Vice President Mike Pence had been set to visit Israel during the week of 17 December, but according to the White House rescheduled his trip to focus on the tax bill then up for a vote in Congress.
While the trip was rescheduled to the week of 14 January, NBC News reported on Tuesday that his visit was not on the Israeli Foreign Ministry schedule.
Pence spokeswoman Alyssa Farah told AFP the vice president will still visit this month.
"As we've said all along, the vice president is going to the Middle East in January," she said. "We're finalising details and will announce specifics of the full trip in the coming days." 

What happens if Trump does stop aid to Palestinians?


A million Palestinians in Gaza depend on UNRWA emergency food rations. That number soared from just 80,000 in 2000, after years of Israeli siege and military assaults on the territory.
Abed Rahim KhatibAPA images
Ali Abunimah- 3 January 2018
What would happen if Donald Trump carries out his threats to stop US aid to Palestinians?
If he means a cutoff of US funding to the Palestinian Authority, potentially bringing about its collapse, he would be robbing Israel of one of its key tools for maintaining its regime of occupation and apartheid over millions of Palestinians.
That is something many Palestinians might welcome.
But if he means cutting US funding for UNRWA, the UN agency for Palestine refugees, that could cause a humanitarian catastrophe.
It would inflict suffering on millions of people who have been forced to depend on UNRWA’s provision of health and education services and emergency food and shelter because Israel denies them their rights.
Cutting aid to UNRWA – as Trump’s UN ambassador Nikki Haley suggested the US might do – would also have far-reaching effects, potentially destabilizing Jordan and Lebanon where large Palestinian refugee populations live.

Twitter threats

On Tuesday, Trump continued a Twitter diatribe against countries he accuses of taking US aid without being sufficiently subservient.
“It’s not only Pakistan that we pay billions of dollars to for nothing, but also many other countries, and others,” the president wrote. “As an example, we pay the Palestinians HUNDRED OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS a year and get no appreciation or respect.”
It's not only Pakistan that we pay billions of dollars to for nothing, but also many other countries, and others. As an example, we pay the Palestinians HUNDRED OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS a year and get no appreciation or respect. They don’t even want to negotiate a long overdue...
...peace treaty with Israel. We have taken Jerusalem, the toughest part of the negotiation, off the table, but Israel, for that, would have had to pay more. But with the Palestinians no longer willing to talk peace, why should we make any of these massive future payments to them?
“They don’t even want to negotiate a long overdue peace treaty with Israel,” he added. “We have taken Jerusalem, the toughest part of the negotiation, off the table, but Israel, for that, would have had to pay more. But with the Palestinians no longer willing to talk peace, why should we make any of these massive future payments to them?”
Trump came to office promising to deliver the “ultimate deal” in the Middle East. Last month he sabotagedwhatever vanishingly slim chances he had of delivering by unilaterally declaring Jerusalem Israel’s capital and saying he will move the US embassy there.
Under those circumstances, not even PA leader Mahmoud Abbas could continue to play along with the “peace process” charade.
As a result, the US effort appears to have collapsed, with Vice President Mike Pence repeatedly postponing a visit to the region.
Although Trump’s bullying and threats failed to stop the overwhelming majority of countries from condemning his Jerusalem move in a UN General Assembly vote last month, he appears to think financial blackmail will work against the Palestinians.
Abbas’ office responded to Trump’s threats by declaring that Jerusalem is “not for sale.”

Aid to PA is aid to Israel

Over the last decade, US aid to the Palestinian Authority has averaged around $400 million a year – and primarily benefits Israel by reinforcing the status quo of occupation.
The aid was boosted after the US-backed coup against the elected Hamas-led PA government in 2007 led to the geographic and factional split between the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
While Hamas was isolated in a besieged Gaza, the US increased funding for the Ramallah-based PA dominated by Abbas and his Fatah faction.
According to the Congressional Research Service, this funding was “primarily in direct support of the PA’s security, governance, development and reform programs in the West Bank under Abbas” and intended “in part to counter Hamas.”
All of this was toward the ultimate goal of boosting the PA as an occupation subcontractor – or as the Congressional Research Service puts it using American official euphemisms, the aid is aimed at “promoting the prevention or mitigation of terrorism against Israel.”
The PA’s primary role in suppressing Palestinian resistance to occupation is called “security coordination” – a form of collaboration almost universally opposed by Palestinians, but which Abbas has described as “sacred.”
The administration of President Barack Obama explicitly warned against forcing the “insolvency and collapse” of the PA and emphasized its vital role in protecting not only Israel, but its settlers in the occupied West Bank as well.
“The PA and Israel currently have mechanisms and channels for security coordination, helping to maintain security for Palestinians and Israelis living in the West Bank, and identifying and thwarting potential terrorist attacks in Israel,” then deputy secretary of state Antony Blinken said in 2015. “The collapse of the PA would break this channel of coordination.”

If the PA goes

It is precisely because aid to the PA is in effect aid to Israel that the powerful lobby group AIPAC has repeatedlypressed Congress to fund it.
In August, AIPAC gave its backing to a bill threatening to cut off US aid to the PA, but only after exceptions were inserted to ensure that money would continue to flow for “security cooperation.”
It has always been a fair bet that AIPAC would intervene to prevent any aid cutoff to the PA. Now nothing can be taken for granted, although the organization maintains a nominal commitment to a “two-state solution.”
But in Israel, leaders who demand annexation of most of the West Bank are increasingly dominant and they have strong supporters in the Trump administration.
If the PA goes, the so-called international community will no longer be able to pretend that there is a Palestinian state-in-waiting, and will have to deal with the reality that Israel directly rules over millions of Palestinians who have no rights whatsoever solely because they are not Jewish.
From the Palestinian perspective, the only viable path following a collapse of the PA would be to campaign for full Palestinian rights in every part of historic Palestine: a democratic, nonsectarian one-state solution to counter the apartheid version Israel is imposing.

Did she mean UNRWA?

In addition to financing the PA to protect Israel, the US is also the largest single contributor to UNRWA, the cash-strapped and overstretched UN agency that meets basic needs of millions of Palestinian refugees in the occupied West Bank and Gaza, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon.
At a new year’s press conference on Tuesday, Nikki Haley, Trump’s UN ambassador, was asked if the US would maintain funding for UNRWA in light of the UN General Assembly resolution on Jerusalem that was backed by the Palestinian Authority.

Replying, Haley did not mention UNRWA by name, but stated: “I think the president has basically said that he doesn’t want to give any additional funding – or stop funding – until the Palestinians are agreeing to come back to the negotiating table, and what we saw with the resolution was not helpful to the situation. We’re trying to move forward a peace process but if that doesn’t happen, the president’s not going to continue to fund that situation.”
In an email Tuesday evening, UNRWA spokesperson Chris Gunness told The Electronic Intifada that “UNRWA has not been informed by the United States administration of any changes in US funding to the agency.”
Along with the European Union, the US is one of the largest contributors to UNRWA, providing $380 million of the agency’s $1.1 billion budget in 2015.
UNRWA provides essential health and education services to more than five million Palestinian refugees, including half a million schoolchildren.
In addition, the agency has been providing emergency food and other assistance to hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees affected by the civil war in Syria.
In Gaza, half the population of two million rely on emergency food assistance from UNRWA. This number has soared from just 80,000 in 2000 as a result of years of Israeli blockade and repeated military attacks that have destroyed the territory’s economy, rendering it unlivable.
Between them, Lebanon and Jordan are home to 2.5 million Palestinian refugees served by UNRWA.
These countries, which host the largest refugee populations in the world per capita including people who have fled the war in Syria, would not be able to cope with a sudden cut in UNRWA services and such a reduction could lead to social and political unrest.
For years anti-Palestinian extremists, especially in the US, have waged smear campaigns against UNRWA, claiming the agency teaches anti-Israel “incitement” or harbors weapons in its schools.
Pro-Israel propagandists often claim that the existence of UNRWA “perpetuates” the existence of Palestinian refugees. They believe that if the agency were dissolved, the demand for refugees’ right of return – which is anathema to Zionism’s goal of ensuring there are as few Palestinians in historic Palestine as possible – would also evaporate.
This is rather like arguing that since hospitals are full of sick people, then closing down all health facilities would end disease. However, UNRWA’s enemies are not looking to solve problems, but to make the Palestinians disappear.
It is not entirely clear if Haley meant that the US would cut aid to UNRWA. What is clear is that doing so would inflict untold additional suffering on some of the world’s most vulnerable people.
Such considerations have never deterred the US from taking a course of action in the past.