Sri Lanka sanctions could affect €74m worth of imports

Yellowfin tuna

October 15, 2014, 9:41 am

Eva Tallaksen

The European Commission’s ban on fishery products on Sri Lanka could affect imports worth around €74 million a year.

The European Union imported 7,400 metric tons of fishery products from Sri Lanka last year, worth €74m, a commission spokesperson told Undercurrent News.

In particular, the ban is likely to be problematic for importers of fresh swordfish and tuna, especially yellowfin.

“Sri Lanka is one of the biggest exporters to the EU of high value fresh and chilled swordfish, tuna and tuna-like species,” said the spokesperson.

The sanctions apply specifically to all products caught by Sri Lanka-flagged vessels, whether or not processed or exported by Sri Lanka. Conversely, they would not apply to products from non-Sri Lanka-flagged vessels, even if processed in the country.

A 2009 report from Seafish on yellowfin tuna said Sri Lanka, along with the Maldives, is the main supplier of chilled Indian Ocean yellowfin to the UK.

“The majority of the fresh or chilled tuna air-freighted into the UK is from Indian Ocean countries such as Sri Lanka and the Maldives,” said the report.

Eurostat statistics show the EU imported €3.9m worth of chilled and fresh yellowfin tuna from Sri Lanka last year. Of this, France was the major buyer, importing 337t for €2.788m (figures also reported by FranceAgrimer here).

All in all that year, France imported €11.6m worth of fishery products from Sri Lanka that year, including €1.5m worth of swordfish and €5.1m of “various seafood”.

The European commission announced on Tuesday that all fishery imports from Sri Lanka would be banned starting Jan. 15, 2015. This three-month delay will prevent the sanctions from disrupting “ongoing commercial trade”, it said.

More sanctions will then follow, if and when the commission’s decision is approved by the European council.

These will prohibit any EU vessel from fishing in Sri Lanka waters and from reflagging to Sri Lanka; while banning joint operations with a fishing vessel flagged to Sri Lanka.

The sanctions are part of the commission’s fight on illegal, unregulated and unrestricted (IUU) fishing.

The EU first warned Sri Lanka in 2012 that it would face sanctions if it did not show significant progress in cooperating against IUU.

The commission said its sanctions, or ‘red card’, on Sri Lanka follow “four years of intense dialogue with the country after which it could not demonstrate that it sufficiently addressed [IUU] fishing”.

It said its assessment found that Sri Lanka has not sufficiently addressed the shortcomings in its fisheries control system identified in November 2012.

Sri Lanka’s main weaknesses, it said, “include shortcomings in the implementation of control measures, a lack of deterrent sanctions for the high seas fleet, as well as lacking compliance with international and regional fisheries rules.”

Mahinda already disqualified

SATURDAY, 18 OCTOBER 2014 

The main struggle at the moment is to prevent holding an illegal presidential election and stopping Mahinda Rajapaksa from being an illegal presidential candidate says the Leader of the JVP Anura Dissanayaka.

There is no necessity to violate the Constitution which is the fundamental law of the country as carrying out such a vile act would be a drastic attack on the people of the country said Mr. Dissanayaka speaking at a seminar held in Colombo yesterday (17th).

The seminar organized at New Town Hall by ‘People’s Movement for Democracy in Sri Lanka’ was under the theme ‘No third term for Mahinda – Challenges of illegal presidential election.’

Former Chief Justice Sarath N. de Silva addressing the seminar said the Constitution is the supreme law of the country and it could be defined only by the  interpretation ordinance Act adopted by a panel of nine Supreme Court Judges.

He said Mr. Mahinda Rajapaksa disqualified to be a candidate for the presidential election a third time when he had a mandate to become the President for the second time.

The convener for ‘People’s Movement for Democracy in Sri Lanka’ Attorney-at-Law Sunil Watagala chaired the seminar. Chief Editor of ‘Ravaya’ K.W. Janaranjana also addressed the seminar. Attorney-at-Law of the Supreme Court participated as an invited guest while Parliamentarians representing several political parties participated.

Mahinda Already Disqualified by Thavam

Before Chris Nonis drama anti MR email circulate among diplomats: Danger of militarization of External Affairs Ministry

(Lanka-e-News- 17.Oct.2014, 11.30PM) As a result of the assault on Chris Nonis, Sri Lanka High Commissioner of London by Sajin de Vas Genawardena, Monitoring MP of the Ministry of External Affairs, internal conflicts at the Ministry has come to the surface. According to the ministry officials, this is not an isolate incident. It is a part of a well-planned plot to remove Chris Nonis. This became possible after appointing Chanka Talpahewa, highly corrupted officer popular for carrying tales as the Deputy High Commissioner. He is a close associate of Sajin Vas Gunawardena and lover of Kshenuka Seneviratna, Secretary of the Ministry. While Chris Nonis incident was developing, CID began an investigation on circulation of emails among senior Foreign Service Officers criticizing the government. The investigations were being carried out on P.M. Amza, one of the henchmen of the regime and former Ambassador to Brussels and Prassnna, another Foreign Service officer serving at SARC Secretariat in Nepal. It has been revealed that a few other officers including Azziz, Sri Lankan Ambassador in Austria, I. Anzar, Ambassador in Malaysia, Ravinatha Ariyasinghe, Ambassador in Geneva and Anas, Acting Ambassador in Kuwait were also involved in this email distribution. In particular, Ravinatha never liked Saijn Vas as he was taking about things alien to him. The whole episode was exposed when one of the emails was received at the office of Chris Noins and a copy of the same was secretly given to Sain Vas by Chanaka Thalpahewa.

All these incidents revealed prevalence of an anti-government group at the External Affairs Ministry. This is not an entirely new phenomenon as Ministry officials have been accused of leaking sensitive information to foreign secret agencies. In the meantime, a group has been appointed to spy the officers of the Ministry. This group is headed by Jauhar, Director General of the Overseas Administration Division and Pradeepa Saram, Director General of the Consular Affiars Division of the Ministry. The most dangerous development is hacking of emails and computers of the Ministry with the support of Chinese and local hackers. As a result there is nothing secret in the Ministry.

Against this backdrop, appointing of a former Military commander served as an Ambassador to the Secretary post of the External Affairs Ministry is being discussed. The reasons to appoint a military officer are to discipline the officers and put things in order. According to the internal information of the Ministry, present secretary Kshenuka Sevaniratna will once again be appointed as the Sri Lankan High Commissioner to London where she would be happy to be with her new lover.

At the end all these activities will seriously affect the sovereignty of the country more than the Ministry itself.

UPFA catholic ministers, MPs are concerned!

 Saturday, 18 October 2014 

Deputy minister of fisheries Sarath Gunaratne said at a dinner for SLFP electoral organizers at Temple Trees on October 16 that the government stands to lose catholic votes if the scheduled Sri Lankan trip by Pope Francis is cancelled in the event a presidential election is called to clash with his visit. All catholic ministers and MPs present paid attention to this matter.

The deputy minister told them that Malcolm Cardinal Ranjith has convened bishops from across the country to Colombo to discuss arrangements for the papal visit.

One catholic minister said that when he asked minister Basil Rajapaksa, who is in charge of ‘Maga Neguma’ to renovate the access road to Madhu Church, which the Pope is due to visit at the invitation of Bishop Rayappu Joseph, he was told to ask the defence secretary about it. However, it is most likely that the road would not be renovated if asked, due to the antagonism between the defence secretary and Bishop Joseph. All these have been discussed by the Catholic ministers and MPs of the government.

Also, a Vatican delegation is due to arrive on October 27 to take a final decision on the Pope’s visit, deputy minister Gunaratne added.

Enter Mossad And Ravi Jayewardene

By Rajan Hoole -October 18, 2014

Dr. Rajan Hoole

Border Aggression and Civilian Massacres – Part 5

As for the Israeli engagement and what it entailed, much valuable information is ob- tainable from By Way of Deception by Viktor Ostrovsky and Claire Hoy, which was published in 1990, and the proceedings and report of the Mossad Commission in this country the following year, provoked by the same book. The book was written by the Canadian journalist Claire Hoy on the basis of information Ostrovsky had gathered while serving in the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad from 1983 to 1986, before quitting and flying off to Canada. It caused a sensation in Sri Lanka because of its references to purported dealings between Sri Lanka and the Mossad. Some of the claims made in the book are:

Ravi Jayewardene \ File photo

1. Amy Yaar, the Mossad official in charge of the region dreamt up the Mahaveli Project – Sri Lanka’s largest river diversion scheme.

2. The Israelis helped Sri Lanka to cheat the World Bank and other investors out of dollars to pay for all the arms they were buying. Mentioned in particular was giving different views of the same construction to pass them off as separate parts of the project.

3. At one point the Israelis were simultaneously training both LTTE and Sri Lankan security personnel in close proximity of each other in Israel and the Israelis took great pains to avoid their seeing each other.

4. On one occasion the drawing of the inside of a vacuum cleaner was shown and explained to visiting Sri Lankan officials as per- taining to highly sophisticated radar equipment.Read More

We Are Not Prepared to Accept OISL Report Says SL Ambassador in US

18/10/2014 

Sri Lanka’s ambassador to the United States, Prasad Kariyawasam, dismissed the impact of the UN inquiry into mass atrocities in the country, stating that Sri Lanka is not prepared to accept the OHCHR Investigation into Sri Lanka (OISL) report, which is due in March 2015.

Asked by NewsFirst during an interview whether March would be a decisive time for Sri Lanka, Ambassador Kariyawasam said,

“I don’t understand why it is decisive. Next march they will be presenting a report on Sri Lanka to the Human Rights Council. We don’t accept this report and we are not prepared to accept it as well. This is because we have identified their process as one which is wrong and unsuccessful.”

“We don’t think this report is decisive for the future of the country however we are ready to face any repercussions that could occur due to this report. We are currently engaging in discussions with members of Congress and I believe that, through their intervention, we could minimise the repercussions that could occur as a result of this report,” he added.

Asked about the international criticism Sri Lanka has increasingly received over the past few years, Kariyawasam blamed “Tamil extremist groups” in the diaspora.

“We feel the main reason behind this is that the large campaign being carried out by anti-Government Tamil extremist groups operating in the United States and Canada. However, we feel that we can handle the situation with regard to the UNHRC inquiry in a manner which would not cause major harm to Sri Lanka,” he said.

“It has been only three months since I travelled to America. So far I have met around 40 American Congressmen and explained the real situation in our country. US policies are influenced by three parties – they are the Congress, State Department and the White House. My aim is to hold discussions with all relevant parties and create awareness on the real situation of Sri Lanka,” Kariyawasam added.
Tamil Guardian

‘Prove any economic growth’ – Champika challenges!

 Saturday, 18 October 2014 

At the government parliamentary group meeting at Temple Trees on October 16, science and technology minister issued a challenge to all government ministers and MPs, in front of the president, to prove if this government has achieved any economic growth for the country, say Temple Trees sources.

He was responding to a question raised by Kurunegala district MP Shantha Bandara. Expressing views at the meeting, MP Bandara asked as if all affiliate parties of the government were in support of the presidential election due to be held shortly. He especially questioned the stance of the JHU.

As general secretary of the JHU, minister Ranawaka replied, “We are a separate political party. We have a separate political identity. We will support this government as long as it works according to our policies only. At the national convention on the 19th of this month, we will decide how we should work with this government further.”

As minister Ranawaka made his speech, the president only listened to him, and did not interrupt him, say the sources further.

Now, SF to go to Geneva 

by Kamal Bogoda-18/10/2014

Leader of the Democratic Party (DP) and former Army Commander Gen. Sarath Fonseka yesterday said that depriving him of his right to exercise his franchise by the Elections Commissioner with a presidential election on the horizon demonstrated that President Mahinda Rajapaksa was scared of facing him in a presidential contest.

Addressing a news conference at Kotte, the war winning general challenged President Rajapaksa to face him at the forthcoming presidential election.

"The Democratic Party will not give in to the repressive action of the President and his cohorts and there are persons in our party who could garner more votes than I and we will take a decision to field one of them as a presidential candidate if the need arises and the Democratic Party will do everything necessary to oust Rajapaksa," Fonseka vowed.

"I will complain to the UN Human Rights Commission in Geneva about the injustice meted out to me by the government and we have more than sufficient evidence for the purpose," he said.

"My name was in the voters list of 2013 and 2014 as well and when I spoke to the Elections Commissioner, he said that a person would lose his or her right to vote only if he or she served a two year prison term.

Though the Supreme Court sentenced me to a 30 month prison term, the President saw to it that I was released after 20 months of imprisonment, hence I did not lose my right to vote," Gen. Fonseka said.

"The Elections Commissioner has sent a letter claiming that I have been deprived of my voting rights on the advice of the Attorney General," the DP leader said.

The Elections Commissioner was a scarecrow who didn’t know what his duties were; he didn’t render any service to the public to deserve the salary he was drawing and he was a disgrace to the people Ambalangoda, Fonseka said.

Fonterra bribes editors!

 Saturday, 18 October 2014 

Fonterra, the importer of the ‘Anchor’ brand milk powder, which has become controversial once again, took 10 editors of leading newspapers on a trip to New Zealand on the night of October 16.

The group, including ‘Sunday Lankadeepa’ editor Ariyananda Dombagahawatte and ‘Mawbima’ managing editor Thushara Gunaratne, is due to pay a visit to the ‘Anchor’ factory there.

Pursuant to the government’s recent ban on the advertising of ‘Anchor’ milk powder in the media, Fonterra has organized this trip in order to influence the government and the consumers through newspaper editors.

Tamil community presents The Scarborough Hospital with $150,000 towards MRI project

Members of the Toronto Tamil Community and local dignitaries were on hand for the presentation of a cheque to The Scarborough Hospital-Birchmount campus for the MRI Project at a ceremony this week at the hospital.

Scarborough Mirror

By  Andrew Palamarchuk

andrew palamarchukaplamarchuk@insidetoronto.com

Scarborough’s Tamil community has made good on a pledge to raise $150,000 towards an MRI machine at The Scarborough Hospital’s Birchmount site.

The multi-million-dollar diagnostic imaging machine was installed in October 2011, cutting MRI wait times in half.

This week, members of the Tamil community gathered at the hospital to officially hand over a cheque for $150,740. In addition, a local Tamil restaurant presented a cheque for $12,000.

“This is a wonderful example of community spirit and generosity,” said health minister Dr. Eric Hoskins, who took part in the ceremony. “The Tamil community is a wonderful example among many communities that understand what it means to give and be involved and be committed.”

The Birchmount campus was the last hospital in the GTA to get an MRI.

Hoskins said the machine has enabled the hospital to use its resources more efficiently. “No longer does a patient, accompanied by a nurse, need to be transferred from here, Birchmount, to the General campus (for an MRI), something that was happening more than 200 times each year.”

The Tamil community had been working with the hospital foundation on the MRI project for the past couple of years.

“This is our community. This is where we live, this is where our children are going to be living, so I think we need to keep the standard of the hospital to today’s technology,” said community leader Kula Sellathurai. “And if we don’t have the right equipment, you won’t be able to diagnose our sickness or disease.”

The province now has 102 MRIs, which help diagnose strokes, tumours, spinal cord injuries, structural problems in the heart and blockages in blood vessels.

The hospital foundation’s MRI campaign raised a total of about $5 million. “MRI is a key diagnostic tool today,” said foundation president and CEO Michael Mazza.

India, Sri Lanka and the Legacy of the British Empire

Review of Harshan Kumarasingham’s A Political Legacy of the British Empire

by Kalana Senaratne 

- on 10/18/2014 

In our long discussions about Sri Lanka’s post-independence political history, India’s large shadow falls inevitably upon us, bringing with it a curious and mixed effect; it is both alarming and inspiring at times, but also quite disheartening and dispiriting on other occasions. We were both part of the British Empire, both Mother Lanka and Mother India, but an analysis of our respective post-colonial histories shows the contrast; and as a consequence, there is, somewhere in the air, a sense of jealousy too, drifting from here to there. How differently have we grown since then, how strangely have we acted and reacted, and in what mysterious and frightening ways have our paths crossed over the past few decades?

India, Sri Lanka and the Legacy of the British Empire by Thavam

The Controversial Nobel Prize for Peace

By Ali Sukhanver-October 17, 2014
Just a few days back, David Swanson, a well known American journalist and a human rights activist penned down an article, ‘Again the Peace Prize Not for Peace.’ The topic of this article is awarding of the Nobel Prize for Peace to Malala Yusafzai and Kailash Satyarthi. He says in this article, ‘According to Alfred Nobel’s will the Nobel Peace Prize must go to the person who has done the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses. 

Again the Peace Prize Not for Peace

By davidswanson - Posted on 10 October 2014

The Nobel Peace Prize is required by Alfred Nobel's will, which created it, to go to "the person who shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses." The Nobel Committee insists on awarding the prize to either a leading maker of war or a person who has done some good work in an area other than peace.
The Controversial Nobel Prize for Peace by Thavam

Hong Kong activists regroup; police chief warns safety at risk

Protesters clash with police in Mongkok area of Hong Kong | Channel 4 News

Pro-democracy protesters stand by a barricade after clashes with police in the Mongkok shopping district of Hong Kong October 18, 2014.

BY DONNY KWOK AND YIMOU LEE-Sat Oct 18, 2014

(Reuters) - Hong Kong pro-democracy activists recaptured parts of a core protest zone from police early on Saturday after hours of turmoil that the city's police chief warned undermined order and jeopardised public safety.

Dozens of people were injured in the skirmishes, including 18 police, which raged through the night as several thousand protesters squared off again police in the densely populated Mong Kok district.

At least 33 people were arrested, Hong Kong public broadcaster RTHK reported.

Police used batons and pepper spray, and scuffled violently with activists, but they were eventually forced to pull back less than 24 hours after they re-opened most of the area to traffic.

The protests have been going on for three weeks and pose one of the biggest political challenges for China since the crushing of pro-democracy demonstrations in Beijing in 1989.

Hong Kong Police Commissioner Andy Tsang broke three weeks of public silence to say his force had been "extremely tolerant" but had failed to stop protesters becoming more "radical or violent".

"To these protesters, you may think that your illegal acts have prevented the police in going about our duties, disrupted our deployments and even forced us to retreat," Tsang told a news conference.

"Superficially, that may be the case. But let me tell you this: these illegal acts are undermining the rule of law, undermining (what) Hong Kong has been relying on to succeed."

After police retreated, demonstrators swiftly stacked up barricades made out of packing crates and fences. Tsang said the reoccupation of the area "seriously undermined public order and seriously jeopardized public safety".

The protesters, led by a restive generation of students, have been demanding China's Communist Party rulers live up to constitutional promises to grant full democracy to the former British colony which returned to Chinese rule in 1997.

Hong Kong is ruled under a "one country, two systems" formula that allows the thriving capitalist hub wide-ranging autonomy and freedoms and specifies universal suffrage for Hong Kong as an eventual goal.

But Beijing ruled on Aug. 31 it would screen candidates who want to run for the city's chief executive in 2017, which democracy activists said rendered the universal suffrage concept meaningless. The protesters are demanding free elections for their leader.

'WE WILL STAY'

The clashes came just hours after Hong Kong's pro-Beijing leader Leung Chun-ying offered talks to student leaders next week in an attempt to defuse the protests that have grabbed global headlines with scenes of clashes and tear gas rising between some of the world's most valuable office buildings.

Leung's chief secretary, Carrie Lam, announced on Saturday that between student leaders and the city government would take place for two hours on Tuesday.

The Mong Kok area was calm later on Saturday with the number of protesters much smaller as activists rested. Police stood in formation away from the barricades.

Posters declaring "Reclaim Mong Kok!" had been plastered on shop fronts. The protesters who remained were bracing for another bruising night.

Student Angel So, 20, said she was determined to stop police clearing the area again. "We'll keep coming back," she said, as a friend, Terry Leung, nursed grazes on his arms and legs from scuffles with police.

Joshua Wong, a bookish 18-year-old whose fiery speeches have helped drive the protests, was defiant.

"We will stay and fight till the end," he told Reuters as he surveyed the crowd during the night, from on top of a subway station exit.

The escalation in the confrontation illustrates the dilemma faced by police in trying to strike a balance between law enforcement and not inciting the protesters who have been out since late last month in three core shopping and government districts.

Besides Mong Kok, about 1,000 protesters remained camped out on Hong Kong Island in a sea of tents on an eight-lane highway beneath skyscrapers close to government headquarters.

Despite Leung's offer of talks next week, few expect any resolution without more concrete concessions from authorities.

(Additional reporting by Lawrence White, Twinnie Siu and Diana Chan; Writing by James Pomfret and Greg Torode; Editing by Robert Birsel)

Russia’s Putin, Ukraine’s Poroshenko end summit with no breakthrough on conflict

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, right, gestures toward Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, as they meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, back to camera, and French President François Hollande, center, facing camera, in Milan. (Alexei Nikolsky/Associated Press)

By Michael Birnbaum October 17 at 3:04 PM

MOSCOW — A high-stakes meeting between the leaders of Ukraine and Russia ended Friday with little progress in resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine, highlighting the increasingly intractable struggle there between government forces and Russian-backed rebels.
Russia’s Putin, Ukraine’s Poroshenko End Summit With No Breakthrough on Conflict by Thavam

When the Petrodollars Run Out

Oil and gas prices are falling through the floor. And some countries are woefully unprepared for the drop.

• BY DANIEL ALTMAN-OCTOBER 17, 2014

It's  good to be Vladimir Putin these days. The Russian president can jerk most European countries around without fearing the consequences, thanks to their dependence on his natural gas. Meanwhile, Putin's customers are probably dreaming of the day when they can tell him to piss off. But when they can finally live independently of his resources, international influence won't be the only thing that crumbles for Russia and other petrostates.

I'm not talking about the kind of energy independence that the United States may gain from fracking, or Brazil by exploiting its deep-sea oil reserves. I'm talking about the day when oil and gas are no longer used as fuel for vehicles and heating homes. For governments that depend on petroleum revenue, like Russia's does, it could be a day of reckoning. Recent fluctuations in the demand and prices for oil and gas are just a sneak preview.

Heating and motor vehicles are arguably the two biggest uses for petroleum that are vulnerable to technological change in the years to come. Right now, the United States still uses about two-thirds of its petroleum for gasoline and heating. The rest goes for jet fuel, propane,plastics, and other products that won't necessarily be replaced by electric cars, solar panels, and wind power. As demand for gasoline and oil-and-gas-based heating drop, crude and natural gas prices will probably fall as well. But then those other petroleum-based products will become cheaper and people will buy more of them, adding back some demand for oil and gas. And of course, the emerging economies growing fastest today will contribute some demand as well.

Nevertheless, it's fair to assume that revenue from selling oil and gas will decline within a few decades in countries that are unlikely to find much in the way of new reserves, like Nigeria and Saudi Arabia. Other industries linked to petroleum, such as chemicals and refining, may suffer as well.

What will this mean for the future of the petrostates? In many of them, the governments are dependent on revenues from oil and gas. Two years ago, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published a paper on budgeting with extractive industries that included a version of the following graph:

To see a larger version of this chart click here.

Twenty countries depend on petroleum for at least half of their government revenue, and another 10 are between half and a quarter. These countries are clearly vulnerable to big changes in the price and quantity of oil and gas that they might sell. But which ones would have the hardest time coping?

One factor that will affect them is the diversification of their economies. In countries where petroleum is responsible for a lot of revenue but not much of overall economic output, there is at least the possibility of broadening the tax base. Starting with Qatar in the graph above, all the countries depend on petroleum for less than a fifth of gross domestic product. But some of them are lousy at collecting taxes, which is the revenue they'll rely on when earnings from oil and gas decline.

According to estimates compiled for 2005 to 2007 by Andreas Buehn of the Utrecht School of Economics and Friedrich Schneider of the Johannes Kepler University of Linz, the shadow economy -- or black market -- may make up more than half of Nigeria's GDP, and more than 40 percent in Chad, Russia, Myanmar, and Ivory Coast. (Of course, this may be part of the reason why petroleum revenue accounts for so much of their governments' budgets.) Recovering from a dent in government revenue would be especially tough for any of them.

Moreover, several of the countries that depend so heavily on petroleum do a poor job of providing public services even with the revenue it brings. Of the five countries with the narrowest tax bases, four -- Chad, Ivory Coast, Myanmar, and Nigeria -- rank in the bottom 20 percent globally for government effectiveness in the World Bank's Worldwide Governance Indicators.

Were oil and gas prices to dip sharply, these countries might well collapse altogether.

That's also the verdict of the Fragile States Indexpublished annually by Foreign Policy, especially for Chad, which ranks as the sixth most fragile state in the world. Ivory Coast is 14, Nigeria is 17, and Myanmar is 24.

So what can these countries do to bolster themselves for the future? For one thing, they might try to use their petroleum revenues to diversify their economies. Yet there's little precedent for that actually happening. In the three decades from 1983 to 2012, no country that ever got 20 percent of its GDP from oil and gas -- according to the World Bank's figures, which differ slightly from the IMF's -- substantially reduced those resources' share of its economy. The shares typically rose and fell with prices; there were no long-term reductions.

To see a larger version of this chart click here.

The least diversified countries at the moment, with at least 40 percent of GDP from oil and gas, are the Republic of Congo, Kuwait, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Gabon, Angola, and Oman. (East Timor may also be among them, according to the IMF figures, but the World Bank has no data on it.) For most of the Arab Gulf states, this may not be too worrisome; theirsovereign wealth funds are copious, so they have some room to maneuver if energy prices dip. But for the others, there is little flexibility:

If Chad, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, and Myanmar are vulnerable in the short term to fluctuations in energy prices, then Republic of Congo, Gabon, Angola, and Iraq are looking at potential trouble in the long term. It won't be easy for them to transform their economies for a post-petroleum world. The sooner they can get started, the better.